I have no idea how, given the first two innings ended by end of day 2, but I actually think a draw is the most likely result.
If India get a couple early wickets, it’ll put pressure on the England batters and tilt the match their way. If however England can close the first session at any run rate with only a wicket lost, they’ll be in a really commanding position to win this thing.
I know there is a lot of stats which will say that chasing this total is very rare, but kind of have to put that aside and consider this pitch on its merits.
In India’s last innings, it basically took two days to take 10 wickets - and at least 4 of those wickets were players who weren’t really trying to protect their wicket but rather score runs quickly.
Which means in the last 7 sessions, only really 6/7 wickets have actually been properly taken. Plus I was at the game yesterday, in that final session from Hameed and Burns, there was virtually no close call, no half chance, barely even an appeal other than a stupid review from Kohli. It’s not like there is things happening which are being missed, or unluckily going past a 2nd slip for example. There is literally nothing.
It’s clearly a flat pitch, the ball isn’t doing anything. So when considering on these factors, I think it’ll be a huge failure if England can’t avoid losing 10 wickets on this final day. I think conversely if India do achieve it, it’ll be impressive. So for me, my starting point is the most likely outcome is 10 wickets DONT get taken. I think that is why an India win is least likely.
Then next question is can England score 290 or whatever it is in a day. I think they can but obviously depends on if they lose any early wickets. I think if England lose any more than 2 wickets in the first session, or 4 by tea, they’ll most likely shut up shop and not go for the win. Any less, though, and with wickets in hand the reality is it’s very easy to chase this 290.