Donald Trump - GUILTY!

Rado_N said:
Bidens approval numbers are horrifically low, the concern isn’t about people outside Trumps base voting for him, it’s about them not turning up because there’s absolutely nothing inspiring about Biden.
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Agree. Biden is too old and seems not fit for the tasks. However, Trump has similar blackouts. Calling his "friend" Organ the president of Turkey.

I hope enough people outside of Trump's base just go to vote to prevent a possibly disastrous 2nd Trump presidency.

It should be ABT (all but Trump).
 
B. Munich said:
Trump will get the nomination of the GOP but his diehard base consists only of 30 to 35% of the voters. I refuse to believe that many independent and swing voters will vote for the lunatic.
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Of course they will. They did in 2016 and 2020.
 
Iker Quesadillas said:
Of course they will. They did in 2016 and 2020.
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In 2016 Hilary was extremely unpopular with many voters and Trump was more or less a wildcard. Nobody knew how he will eventually act when elected.

In 2020 Trump lost the election pretty clear with over 5 million more votes for Biden.

Since 2020 many things happened like January 6, 70+ civil and federal charges, he radicalized further and his agenda became even more extreme.
I would believe this should scare and drive away many independent and swing voters.

But I'm German and living in the US. So I might be wrong.
 
B. Munich said:
In 2016 Hilary was extremely unpopular with many voters and Trump was more or less a wildcard. Nobody knew how he will eventually act when elected.

In 2020 Trump lost the election pretty clear with over 5 million more votes for Biden.
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The difference in votes between Biden and Trump was 4.45% of the total vote. The difference in votes between Clinton and Trump was 2.1% of the total vote. That is a 2.35% swing. Electorally it is very meaningful because Biden won a bunch of states that Clinton lost and therefore won the election, but in absolute terms it was not a massive repudiation of Trump by any stretch of the imagination.

Trump has never been as popular as his cultists would like him to be. But the inverse is also not true: he's just not a widely unacceptable figure.
 
Correct: 43% of independents voted for Trump. I think that qualifies as "many independents" voting for Trump.
 
NotThatSoph said:
Just in the last week you've called for the murder of Trump, imprisonment and possible execution of Tucker Carlson, and for Robert Hur to be flogged. The longer we go back, the longer the list of your violent fantasies becomes. You've been doing this thing for years, it's not about Trump.
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To be fair, America runs around the world playing world police, deciding that their capitalism needs to be installed everywhere, overthrowing and challenging shit, regardless of bloodshed.

And Most will freely admit that they’d use a time travel machine to murder Hitler before he got his Fuhrer on.

So Suggesting that one of the greatest threats to global stability is a sensible target for assassination isn’t outside of the realms of sensible, if you use Americas rules.
 
UnrelatedPsuedo said:
To be fair, America runs around the world playing world police, deciding that their capitalism needs to be installed everywhere, overthrowing and challenging shit, regardless of bloodshed.

And Most will freely admit that they’d use a time travel machine to murder Hitler before he got his Fuhrer on.

So Suggesting that one of the greatest threats to global stability is a sensible target for assassination isn’t outside of the realms of sensible, if you use Americas rules.
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I suppose the only reason they have not done it already is because it would make him a martyr for the MAGA-crowd and risk a civil war?
 
SirAF said:
I suppose the only reason they have not done it already is because it would make him a martyr for the MAGA-crowd and risk a civil war?
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Well, that and the fact it’s utterly insane. I wasn’t advocating for it.
 
SirAF said:
I suppose the only reason they have not done it already is because it would make him a martyr for the MAGA-crowd and risk a civil war?
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The guy is 78 years old. If they really would want, they can just let him have an heart attack....

SirAF said:
https://www.forbes.com/sites/jackbr...uburban-voters-independents-won-him-election/
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That's actually very significant Anna encouraging, if you aren't a Trump supporter.

As I wrote in 2016 nobody really knew how a Trump presidency would look like.
In 2020 people knew and more swing and independent voters switched into the democrat camp. Not because they support Biden but they wanted to prevent Trump.

In 2024 Trump even looks more radical and unhinged. So my hope is that even more of independent and swing voters will vote for the democrats just to prevent another 4 years of Trump. Another hope is that many moderate republican voters will not vote or even switch as they don't agree with some of Trump's radical policies, like import taxes and leaving NATO.
 
UnrelatedPsuedo said:
Well, that and the fact it’s utterly insane. I wasn’t advocating for it.
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I don't advocate it either but I'm pretty scared of a world in which Trump, Putin and Xi are in charge of the 3 military super powers.

If today news reported the 3 passed away, I wouldn't shed a tear to be honest.
 
B. Munich said:
That's actually very significant Anna encouraging, if you aren't a Trump supporter.

As I wrote in 2016 nobody really knew how a Trump presidency would look like.
In 2020 people knew and more swing and independent voters switched into the democrat camp. Not because they support Biden but they wanted to prevent Trump.

In 2024 Trump even looks more radical and unhinged. So my hope is that even more of independent and swing voters will vote for the democrats just to prevent another 4 years of Trump. Another hope is that many moderate republican voters will not vote or even switch as they don't agree with some of Trump's radical policies, like import taxes and leaving NATO.
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Agreed. I mean, he's got an excellent chance of winning but if I was a betting man I'd put my money on Biden exactly for those reasons you are outlining there. Trump also got a few legal hurdles to clear before November, but I'm not all that hopeful on those.

Either way, 8-9 months is a long time in politics. We'll have a clearer picture over the summer, I guess.
 
B. Munich said:
I don't advocate it either but I'm pretty scared of a world in which Trump, Putin and Xi are in charge of the 3 military super powers.

If today news reported the 3 passed away, I wouldn't shed a tear to be honest.
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I’d have to go to the shop, we’ve only got one bottle of champagne in.
 
A lot of populist politicians that get elected after drumming up a huge fanbase, lose popularity after being in power, failing to live up to many of their fantasy / hot air promises (or at least meet their full targets), and actually being front and centre of the establishment, after previously being outsiders.

At a UK level, many of the Farage cultists would turn on him if he actually was part of a government, let’s say as the Home Secretary overseeing immigration amongst other things.

The fact that Trump largely maintained, or even added to / increased his support base after being president for 4 years, was a depressing departure from the norm.
 
B. Munich said:
Reading this thread and Trumps often crazy remarks and totally wrong claims, I can't believe he has a chance to win the election. 60% taxes on China, 10% taxes on all imports, openly questioning article 5 of NATO....

Trump will get the nomination of the GOP but his diehard base consists only of 30 to 35% of the voters. I refuse to believe that many independent and swing voters will vote for the lunatic.

However, lately many politicians and media in Germany starting to panic that the Donald might indeed become the next US president.

Should I get worried? What are the many American posters on redcafe thinking?

Does Trump has indeed a realistic chance to get elected?
Normally the incumbent president has an huge advantage to secure a second term. Especially when the economy is doing well, which is absolutely the case.
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It'll be a turnout question for Biden. I think Trump will get fewer votes than in the last election - little I've seen convinces me that he's more popular than a few years ago.

Pew Research don't just ask the 'affiliated' party q - where about a third of voters claim to be independent but also a 'support or lean towards' (dem/gop) and there only 7% don't lean one way or the other. I think that group is kind of over-egged to be honest, I struggle to imagine who those people really are.

If Biden can get near the votes he did last time, he'll win. So if he's not compelling enough (and he's obviously not) to get people excited, the dems have to do the inverse, and run on anti-Trump and pro-abortion - two topics that are extremely popular. Their best scenario would be for Biden to basically be a background item to the main election messaging.

As others have said, I honestly thought we were past this on January 7th, but I'd over-estimated the MAGA base's intellect and under-estimated the GOPs cynicism and frankly, insanity. I really wonder if McConnell could have that impeachment vote again, if he wouldn't get it done.
 
Beachryan said:
As others have said, I honestly thought we were past this on January 7th, but I'd over-estimated the MAGA base's intellect and under-estimated the GOPs cynicism and frankly, insanity. I really wonder if McConnell could have that impeachment vote again, if he wouldn't get it done.
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I really think so. I genuinely thought Trump was politically toast after J6 - especially when people like Graham scolded him on the floor. But yes, the stupidity of the MAGA base combined with the power hunger from GOP clearly overrules common sense. Which we kind of already knew.
 
B. Munich said:
I don't advocate it either but I'm pretty scared of a world in which Trump, Putin and Xi are in charge of the 3 military super powers.

If today news reported the 3 passed away, I wouldn't shed a tear to be honest.
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I would be having the biggest party of my life. :devil:
 
SirAF said:
Trump also got a few legal hurdles to clear before November, but I'm not all that hopeful on those.
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That's another thing that puzzles me. How can it take so long to take him to court so he finally takes responsibility for all the mess he caused with his lies and conspiracy theories. January 6th wasn't just a MAGA party that got out of control but several people died in both sides. There are tons of evidence that trump encouraged the crowd to go the capitol and when it escalated did nothing to stop first.
Or his recorded phone call to try to overturn the election in Georgia.
For an European absolutely mind boggling that he gets away with all this


Cal? said:
I would be having the biggest party of my life. :devil:
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Honestly I would be happier about the triple disappearance of these lunatics than another triple for Bayern.
 
UnrelatedPsuedo said:
To be fair, America runs around the world playing world police, deciding that their capitalism needs to be installed everywhere, overthrowing and challenging shit, regardless of bloodshed.

And Most will freely admit that they’d use a time travel machine to murder Hitler before he got his Fuhrer on.

So Suggesting that one of the greatest threats to global stability is a sensible target for assassination isn’t outside of the realms of sensible, if you use Americas rules.
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Well the dalai lama freely admitted he'd shoot Hitler in the kneecaps. Im pretty sure he would admit to decapitating Trump with a chainsaw.
 
matherto said:
I know it'd be splitting hairs but I think we all knew how he'd eventually act when elected.
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Let's pray there are still enough mentally healthy voters in the US that will prevent the world from another disaster.
One nutcase in Moscow is enough no need of another nutter in the White House

In Germany Trump wouldn't even get 3% of the votes.
 
B. Munich said:
Let's pray there are still enough mentally healthy voters in the US that will prevent the world from another disaster.
One nutcase in Moscow is enough no need of another nutter in the White House

In Germany Trump wouldn't even get 3% of the votes.
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How much do the AfD get?

Also relying on mentally healthy voters in the US makes my blood run cold.
 
matherto said:
How much do the AfD get?

Also relying on mentally healthy voters in the US makes my blood run cold.
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Right wing nutjobs and frankly Nazis all the same, but they have to wear a more measured mask (most of the time) in Germany. They're nowhere close to Trump's rhetoric, at least out in the open
 
matherto said:
How much do the AfD get?
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In the polls they are around 20%. They don't stand a chance to be part of Abby government.

I don't think you can compare Germany with the US. The US economy is strong and firing out of all cylinders.
Germany's GDP is shrinking, the country is in a technical recession. Our industry isn't competitive anymore. Energy prices are 4x higher than in the US.
The 3 parties forming current coalition government (SPD, die Gründen and FDP) are at odds how to bring the country back on track. SPD und die Grünen want higher taxes and more debt while the liberals insist to keep the debt ceiling and no higher taxes. Lots of infighting and they can't come up with policies that actually work. So many are frustrated and with the mainstream parties and vote out of protest for the afd. The moment the economy will recover the Afd will be back to 10% or lower.
Trump in US is totally different beast. To me it looks like many of his voters aren't just voters but actually devoted fans. If criticize Trump his supporters take it personal and react like you have criticized themselves. I'm living in Angeles and there is a big US ex military expat community and they all love Trump. Totally resistent to even the most obvious arguments.
It's like a cult to me, more like supporting your favorite football team.
 
It is a cult, some dude near me has a Trump 2024 flag proudly outside his house on the Staffs/Cheshire border
 
Yup. A cult that is assisted by all GOP. Right wing media mostly. But even the more mainstream publications focus on stupid things like "gaffes" and Biden's age when trump is only a few years younger and way fatter, wears makeup and is literally orange. In efforts to seem "fair" or both sides everything. That penetrates. And it allows the uninformed to come away with "all the same" or "nothing will change"
 
B. Munich said:
Let's pray there are still enough mentally healthy voters in the US that will prevent the world from another disaster.
One nutcase in Moscow is enough no need of another nutter in the White House

In Germany Trump wouldn't even get 3% of the votes.
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That’s just not true.
 
HTG said:
That’s just not true.
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Do you have any actual polls?

Some German tourists told me these numbers where mentioned in a recent talk show.

I googled it but can't find the source. I only found a poll from Newsweek briefly bevor the election in 2020. Around 8% Germans would have voted for Trump. Not many either
 
B. Munich said:
Do you have any actual polls?

Some German tourists told me these numbers where mentioned in a recent talk show.

I googled it but can't find the source. I only found a poll from Newsweek briefly bevor the election in 2020. Around 8% Germans would have voted for Trump. Not many either
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They haven't been exposed to his (unfiltered) propaganda to the same extent and there are still many who wish for a "German Trump". Right wing populism is pretty worrying here as well, even if we're relatively lucky in comparison to other European countries or even GB/US. That being said, education, media and political system in the US definitely sucks.
 
Hamnat said:
Yup. A cult that is assisted by all GOP. Right wing media mostly. But even the more mainstream publications focus on stupid things like "gaffes" and Biden's age when trump is only a few years younger and way fatter, wears makeup and is literally orange. In efforts to seem "fair" or both sides everything. That penetrates. And it allows the uninformed to come away with "all the same" or "nothing will change"
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This is exactly right and extremely problematic.
 
Trump is the Man City of American Politics

He can do and say as he pleases and not have to worry about consequences by just obfuscating issues at every turn
He'll never suffer any meaningful material punishment that effects his own goals.
.... even when every fecker knows he's a total conman he will continue to operate uninhibited and will become the next president. Just watch
 
As someone point out here, Trump is a cult and its followers resembles and behave more like a football hooligan. Doesn't matter if one of your player punch an opposition player, or cheats on the wife or pees in the middle of the stadium.

Somewhat it reminds me when I visited Venezuela and when I was speaking to people they were supporters of Chavez or a supporter of Capriles (the main opposition party guy). And it didn't matter what any of them did.

In the end, Trumpism is quashing independents. And the next GOP representative will be the same

Trump might not win in 2024. But as long as he is alive, he will keep being the nominee of GOP and with all the McDonalds preservatives flowing through his veins, he might last 20 years more. At least next year or Biden or Trump will not be in the ballot
 
Zehner said:
They haven't been exposed to his (unfiltered) propaganda to the same extent
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Living in the Philippines I am watching middle US news. Thus, I'm exposed to Trump especially during the covid lockdowns I got overdose.
When I only see the clown my blood pressure goes up.
So I would I assume his approval ratings would be rather lower, if more Germans were exposed to his gibberish. (At least I hope so).

Zehner said:
still many who wish for a "German Trump".
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Never heard somebody wanted a German Trump. His bully politics wouldn't work with out the economic and military power of the US anyway.
Some Germans might want a strong man as leader after 16 years of Mutti, and even wanted a German Putin (until the war at least) but never a Trump. In 2020 Putin war way more popular in Germany than Trump.

Zehner said:
That being said, education, media and political system in the US definitely sucks.
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Absolutely. Especially the political system and election procedure need an urgent overhaul. Unfortunately it will never happen as GOP would without a chance of winning the election.
 
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