Donald Trump - GUILTY!

RedDevil@84 said:
How much % of votes are swing voters? Significant?
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Some political scientists with very strict definitions of the term say around 7% of possible voters, but others that include casual voters into the swing voter category have the number as high as 30% of possible voters.

Either way, yes, the number is significant enough to change an election.

Considering Biden already beat Trump once, obviously, any more swing voters breaking toward Biden because of these indictments and trials just makes things even worse for Trump.
 
RedDevil@84 said:
How much % of votes are swing voters? Significant?
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The percentage of it as a whole does not matter much for the presidential election, I would think. It just has to be high on the battle grounds such as GA, AZ, WI, MI, and PA to decide who will be the president. A high percentage of swing voters in places like FL, TX, CA, NY, etc. would not matter much.
 
The United said:
The percentage of it as a whole does not matter much for the presidential election, I would think. It just has to be high on the battle grounds such as GA, AZ, WI, MI, and PA to decide who will be the president. A high percentage of swing voters in places like FL, TX, CA, NY, etc. would not matter much.
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Exactly. The same swing states in 2020 is where the needle will have to move for any potential Trump win. GA is the only one that makes me nervous simply because it takes a MASSIVE turnout of voters to get the results there. 2 Dem Senators and Blue for Biden. You would need the same again every time as we saw they still vote R for Governor and legislature.

He is about to be indicted again by Georgia though any day now as we have seen. So more will come from that trial about how he tried to defraud voters. It will only help the case for voting against him and turnout.
 
Eyepopper said:
Not sure how accurate it is but

https://www.racetothewh.com/president/polls

says 13% unsure in a choice between Biden & Trump.
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Yes, but this is for Trump and Biden specifically, ie. two politicians who are well known and have already been candidates, so people have formed opinions already.

If the vote was about two new candidates, say DeSantis vs Newsom, the percentage would be much higher.
 
frostbite said:
Yes, but this is for Trump and Biden specifically, ie. two politicians who are well known and have already been candidates, so people have formed opinions already.

If the vote was about two new candidates, say DeSantis vs Newsom, the percentage would be much higher.
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Good point.
 
The United said:
The percentage of it as a whole does not matter much for the presidential election, I would think. It just has to be high on the battle grounds such as GA, AZ, WI, MI, and PA to decide who will be the president. A high percentage of swing voters in places like FL, TX, CA, NY, etc. would not matter much.
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FL and TX might more in play than you think, TX has been trending Democrat for a long time, they will eventually tip the edge in their favor but probably not this time, FL, DeSantis is popular there, if Trump goes after him in the primaries he may well lose some votes, still will probably Republican but a lot closer
 
Red in STL said:
FL and TX might more in play than you think, TX has been trending Democrat for a long time, they will eventually tip the edge in their favor but probably not this time, FL, DeSantis is popular there, if Trump goes after him in the primaries he may well lose some votes, still will probably Republican but a lot closer
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FL has been going in the wrong direction for the past few times. With Desantis there and more conservatives moving there, Florida won't flip in 2024. He will make sure of it by any means as well. TX has been said to be trending purple for a while, but it won't get there for a long time. If anything, Democratic stronghold areas in southern Texas are under serious threat.

But my point was to emphasize the swing states for 2024 based on 2022 because it looks like the candidates for 2024 will most likely be the same.
 
TheGame said:
:lol:
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60fa232e0729770012b972cb


Boooooooooooooooooooobs!
 
Mike Smalling said:
It’s inconsequential as to whether he wins the primaries or not - it’s already in the bag for him.

The indictments will have a negative effect on his chances to win the general. He needs independents, and this will surely turn them off. Also, this is emptying his PAC on legal fees instead of campaigning and ads.
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Indictments are doing the campaign for him. Is 24 hours on news cycle
 
4bars said:
Indictments are doing the campaign for him. Is 24 hours on news cycle
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Sure, bad pub is better than no pub, but so much is already baked into a Trump presidential run, the needle ain’t gonna move much at all even with wall to wall coverage.
 
calodo2003 said:
Sure, bad pub is better than no pub, but so much is already baked into a Trump presidential run, the needle ain’t gonna move much at all even with wall to wall coverage.
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We keep saying that as much as we were saying other things in 2016. Including him pivoting

also Desantis was suppose to give him battle. FOX was on board with him, but after seeing that trump is at 30 points against Desantis in primaries, they are back on trump's team

And i get what you say but who knows how Biden is going to be in 1 year and a half, with fecking Kennedy in the middle stirring shit. Independents are wishy washy and you only need to do a great campaign on suppressing and Trump is the king on that

I kow that even you think deep inside that even if it is unprobable, he still have a small chance to win in 2024

And that alone is fecking scary
 
4bars said:
We keep saying that as much as we were saying other things in 2016. Including him pivoting

also Desantis was suppose to give him battle. FOX was on board with him, but after seeing that trump is at 30 points against Desantis in primaries, they are back on trump's team

And i get what you say but who knows how Biden is going to be in 1 year and a half, with fecking Kennedy in the middle stirring shit. Independents are wishy washy and you only need to do a great campaign on suppressing and Trump is the king on that

I kow that even you think deep inside that even if it is unprobable, he still have a small chance to win in 2024

And that alone is fecking scary
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2016 was very different. He got a lot of coverage then, but it was very much of him being on the front foot, attacking people in crude ways etc. Now all the coverage will be him on the defensive. It’s all whining, which takes away from his strongman persona.

Also, in 2016 he had an actual platform (build the wall, drain the swamp, etc.). What is his platform now? He has the disadvantage of already having been in office, where he didn’t deliver what he promised, as this business man who could fix Washington.

All this means nothing to his base, but it will to independents, and maybe even ‘normal’ Republicans. His best chance is low turnout through voter suppression and/or Biden regressing significantly in cognitive ability.
 
4bars said:
We keep saying that as much as we were saying other things in 2016. Including him pivoting

also Desantis was suppose to give him battle. FOX was on board with him, but after seeing that trump is at 30 points against Desantis in primaries, they are back on trump's team

And i get what you say but who knows how Biden is going to be in 1 year and a half, with fecking Kennedy in the middle stirring shit. Independents are wishy washy and you only need to do a great campaign on suppressing and Trump is the king on that

I kow that even you think deep inside that even if it is unprobable, he still have a small chance to win in 2024

And that alone is fecking scary
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Of course he has a chance, but he’s not currently benefitting from being in the news incessantly. This isn’t 2016.
 
calodo2003 said:
Of course he has a chance, but he’s not currently benefitting from being in the news incessantly. This isn’t 2016.
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Yet. He’s not the GOP candidate yet. As soon as he is the news networks will start filling the screen with him under the guise of fair coverage.
 
Pexbo said:
Yet. He’s not the GOP candidate yet. As soon as he is the news networks will start filling the screen with him under the guise of fair coverage.
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Just don’t think so. That didn’t happen in 2020 to any degree, don’t see it happening in 2024.

His populist appeal from 2016 has virtually disappeared, his schtick is old & gnarled, & the exhausted majority wouldn’t demand seeing him / be very miffed seeing him on air to any degree.

Obvs talking about the legacy media, the newcomer right wing blather ecosystem elements will allow trump’s base to mainline him at all hours of the day & night.
 
Mike Smalling said:
2016 was very different. He got a lot of coverage then, but it was very much of him being on the front foot, attacking people in crude ways etc. Now all the coverage will be him on the defensive. It’s all whining, which takes away from his strongman persona.

Also, in 2016 he had an actual platform (build the wall, drain the swamp, etc.). What is his platform now? He has the disadvantage of already having been in office, where he didn’t deliver what he promised, as this business man who could fix Washington.

All this means nothing to his base, but it will to independents, and maybe even ‘normal’ Republicans. His best chance is low turnout through voter suppression and/or Biden regressing significantly in cognitive ability.
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calodo2003 said:
Of course he has a chance, but he’s not currently benefitting from being in the news incessantly. This isn’t 2016.
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I fully agree with you both in that is not 2016.

But

As you @Mike Smalling said, vote supression is real and Biden has 1 year and a half to look or at least sell to the american voterthat he is not all well on his head. Trump could get the presidency with 3 million less voters do to electoral colleague. Focusing in the key states and could happen

I agree with you @Mike Smalling on that he has no policy platform but he doesnt need it. The presidency had become a reality show and it might be whinning but some other people will spin it as a real political prosecution by the deep state.

When trump will win the primary (it was in doubt not that many months ago), the GOP machinery will close ranks and it will be at least closer than you think.

If he doesnt go to prison, i would bet on trumpto be honest
 
4bars said:
I fully agree with you both in that is not 2016.

But

As you @Mike Smalling said, vote supression is real and Biden has 1 year and a half to look or at least sell to the american voterthat he is not all well on his head. Trump could get the presidency with 3 million less voters do to electoral colleague. Focusing in the key states and could happen

I agree with you @Mike Smalling on that he has no policy platform but he doesnt need it. The presidency had become a reality show and it might be whinning but some other people will spin it as a real political prosecution by the deep state.

When trump will win the primary (it was in doubt not that many months ago), the GOP machinery will close ranks and it will be at least closer than you think.

If he doesnt go to prison, i would bet on trumpto be honest
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Yeah, I don't disagree that it could happen. The way things are going in the world, I would even consider betting on it as well, but more out of pessimism than actual analysis.

Still, the whole point about whether the indictments benefit him or not is quite clear to me - they don't. Trump will spend millions on lawyers and days in deposition, when that money and time could be spent on campaigning. His supporters will dig in deeper, but moderates will be turned away.
 
Mike Smalling said:
Yeah, I don't disagree that it could happen. The way things are going in the world, I would even consider betting on it as well, but more out of pessimism than actual analysis.

Still, the whole point about whether the indictments benefit him or not is quite clear to me - they don't. Trump will spend millions on lawyers and days in deposition, when that money and time could be spent on campaigning. His supporters will dig in deeper, but moderates will be turned away.
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Yes, i can see that. It will be more a battle for the supression and the martyrization of his political persona
 
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