This will depend entirely on how the draw lands. It's the one thing that can't be ignored about how deep Southgate managed to take England. In the 2022 World Cup, he beat Iran, Wales and Senegal, then got beaten by France in the quarter-final, which was basically the exact sort of exit we had in Euro 96, WC 98, WC 02, Euro 04, WC 06, WC 10 and Euro 12. If the next manager fails to beat one of the big teams in the knockouts, then they've not really done any worse than Southgate did. He was just fortunate that he generally avoided them until late on.
The story of his entire tenure was leaving it really late to change things up. If the new manager can actually try and affect the game with his substitutions, then he'll already have a shot at doing better.
- Against Colombia in 2018, he didn't make a change until after the 80th minute.
- Against Croatia, he made one change before full-time, in the 75th minute. He made two changes in extra-time before Croatia's goal, both defensive.
- Against Denmark in 2021, he made one change before full-time (Grealish for Saka in the 70th minute), while Denmark made five, and he then swapped Rice for Henderson as one of his changes in extra-time.
- In the final, he waited for Italy to score before changing anything, then in the 70th minute brought on Saka for Trippier, and Henderson for Rice, while Italy had made two changes before scoring.
- He then made just one change that could affect the game in extra-time (Grealish for Mount), leaving it until stoppage time to bring on Rashford and Sancho.
- Against France in 2022, he waited until their second goal to change anything, leaving it until the 80th minute to bring Mount and Sterling on, the 85th minute to bring Rashford on, and the 8th minute of stoppage time to bring Grealish on.
This Euros was basically him taking the piss with it.
- 1-0 down against Slovakia from the 25th minute. Waited until the 84th minute to bring Eze on for Mainoo, and the fourth minute of stoppage time to bring on Toney for Foden.
- Waited for Switzerland to score in the next round, making changes in the 78th minute. Didn't make another change until five minutes before the end of extra-time.
- Swapped Shaw for Trippier at half-time against Netherlands, then waited until the 81st minute to bring on Palmer and Watkins.
- Had Trippier and Gallagher ready to come on for a good 10 minutes after the equaliser, dithered, then they scored again 13 minutes after we did.