Shots saved/not saved is a misleading stat. The case against De Gea has merit, but not yet n account of his alleged collapse as a shot stopper.
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That is not true and has been proven many times this season in this thread. He is below average shot stopper compared to league average.
His distribution is terrible at times, too often he kicks it straight to an opposition player and right away we’re under pressure deep in our own half. It’s so annoying because it’s needless, we’re just making it so much harder for ourselves.
Really wish his distribution was better, so many times regardless of the opposition he just hoofs it up field when he could play it out from the back.
His commanding of the penalty area is never going to change at this point in his career.
His commanding of the penalty area is never going to change at this point in his career.
He has been poor for a while now, can't see how anyone can keep deluding that DDG is.any good right now.
His shot stopping has regressed, and he was never the most proactive keeper and now those areas are being exposed and becoming more obvious.
His shot stopping has regressed, and he was never the most proactive keeper and now those areas are being exposed and becoming more obvious.
I dont think him staying on the line for the goal was the issue, he should have done better for the shot. Similarly to the freekicks a couple of months ago, he was almost in goal already and moving backwards awkwardly. Not an easy save, but a great shot stopper saves that.
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Reaction saves off defleticons etc too.
Honestly don’t think this is the game you point towards as him not doing well
Had a really good game today. Deserved a clean sheet.
If you're talking about the deflection off Lindelof, it deflected near the edge of the box and directed the ball straight at De Gea. It was a routine tip over the bar that any PL keeper makes. Hardly a showcase of insane reactions and if that goes in you're talking about how De Gea needs to do better considering it's straight at him.
The only save he made today that I thought yeah that's a solid save that he handled better than expected is the ASM one I mentioned but even then that only came about because he wasn't proactive literally 5 seconds earlier.
I think you can point towards him not doing well today for two reasons. One being his refusal to come off his line and deal with crosses into the 6 yard area multiple times (one of which ended up in Newcastles goal) and the other being his shocking distribution.
Been a fan for a long time. He's done so much for us.
But today was the first time I've been disappointed to see him in the starting lineup.
First 20 minutes was horrendous, proper panic stations. Confidence clearly shot to bits and that infects the rest of the defence.
Needs a break.
Time for Ole to make the call.
But today was the first time I've been disappointed to see him in the starting lineup.
First 20 minutes was horrendous, proper panic stations. Confidence clearly shot to bits and that infects the rest of the defence.
Needs a break.
Time for Ole to make the call.
Thought it was wrong by Scholes to blame DeGea for the Newcastle goal today. Maguire has to make a better clearance and I'm not sure where Wan Bissaka went too, marking space again?
I have no problem with the goal. My problem was with the corner kick that lead to it. A shot straight down the middle and De Gea decides to go all Hollywood and tips it over while that was an easily catchable shot. It was straight at De Gea. He catches, then there's no corner kick. No need to kick his legs out like a dive and tip it over with one hand. It's right at him. All it needs is a little jump and two hands to catch it. A couple minutes later their keeper made the save the way De Gea should have on Fred's shot. There were also a couple of balls that he should have come for that he didn't. But all in all, this isn't the performance to give De Gea the yank. Other than what I've mentioned he was decent today...
Seriously??? You expected DDG to catch that ball? Are you serious? The ball was hit with venom and it was above his head - only Sunday league goalkeepers will try to catch that. He did the right thing by tipping it over. Perhaps had Maguire tried to do the same with the corner, we would not have conceded....
Yes....it was straight at him. Don't get fooled by his hollywood antics. He didn't have to kick his feet out. Two hands, slap it down and pick it up off one bounce. It was a routine save...And yes, Maguire could have done better with his header, and Fred should have been picking up the open man who scored. But it is all avoided if De Gea isn't trying to show off to make a routine save look good for the cameras...You don't believe me? Go into the post match discussion. Someone posted a link to their goal. You will see how routine that save is yet De Gea makes it anything but routine so people like you are tricked into thinking it was much harder to save than it really was...
I don't blame him for the goal. But with someone more commanding our defense would be under less pressure too. The defense would make less mistakes too.
People blaming him for not stopping that vicious volley shot is absolutely 
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Agreed. Henderson is in constant communication with his defenders and instills confidence and at the very least coordination with his teammates.
People blaming him for not stopping that vicious volley shot is absolutely
Agreed...i've seen others where he could have done better if his positioning was better(Rodriguez goal last year vs Burnley), but he had no chance on this one
Hugo Lloris also had the habit of not coming off his line to save the first goal against West Ham. He was just trying to save himself from any potential injury.
Shot save percentage does reward those keepers that get the chance to save a lot of long distance shots and other low percentage attempts. Most stats need to be viewed in context.
Post-shot expected goals minus goals allowed is a useful stat to assess a keeper's shot saving ability. It gives far more weight to saving a close range shot than a long distance shot. It only takes into consideration shots that were on target. If necessary, you can adjust it according to mins played or even some measure of shot volume faced.
The season we finished 2nd under Mourinho is the first season there is data for post-shot expected goals minus goals allowed. De Gea + 7.9 This means he conceded almost 8 goals fewer than you'd expect from those shots that were on target. The following season his figure was + 0.9, then + 2.1, currently - 1.5 (though not updated with Newcastle game). There is the decline from elite shot stopper to ordinary.
Taking this season's figures as a guide (in some cases the latest match not included): Nick Pope + 7.3, Martinez + 6.7, Areola + 6.2, Schmeichel + 4.6, Lloris + 4.1, Sanchez + 4.1, Leno + 3.1, Ederson + 2.3, Sam Johnstone + 1.9, then there are a few keepers who have not played many games, as well as Fabianski + 1.7, Alisson + 1.5. De Gea's - 1.5 isn't the worst figure but it really doesn't look great at all.
Last season: Dubravka + 10.0, Lloris + 7.3, Guaita + 6.8, McCarthy + 6.5, Leno + 6.1, Henderson + 5.2, Martinez + 3.9, Ryan + 3.5, Schmeichel + 3.2, Ederson + 2.5, De Gea + 2.1
The Mourinho/Solskjaer season there are 7 regular keepers ahead of De Gea's + 0.9 including several (Alisson, Ederson, Leno, Lloris) from top teams that face fewer shots. Fabianski + 11.6 and Lloris + 11.3 were the stars that season, followed by a group of keepers around + 4.
Ideally you'd want to adjust those figures so that a good keeper who faces tons of shots doesn't surge into the distance compared to an equally good keeper who plays for a team that limits their opponent's chances. One approach might be to ignore the keepers involved in the relegation battle and simply compare De Gea to keepers from the top 10 or top 12 sides.
https://fbref.com/en/comps/9/keepersadv/Premier-League-Stats#all_stats_keeper_adv
I think it is wise to look at 4 or 5 stats when assessing keepers. The percentage of crosses they claim is worth noting, as is the number of sweeper keeper actions per game. Passing is more difficult to assess as some teams play out from the back, while others launch the ball up the pitch at the first opportunity. The case for De Gea over Henderson probably relies heavily on their respective ability to play out from the back. (Personally, I'm not convinced it is sufficient to justify De Gea's selection but if you get to see them in training, it may be more clear cut)
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Can't remember if his distribution was always this flaky, but it definitely seems to have gotten worse. The entire defence seems to go to panic stations when De Gea has the ball at his feet, and you can't really blame them as there's no telling what he'll do. He could pass to an opponent, kick it straight out of play, or ping the ball to one of our players at a pace that's almost impossible to control. Either is a danger and the sport has evolved to such an extent that most rival keepers are good on the ball; some can even create chances from deep.
Being a phenomenal shot stopper back in the day papered over some of the other deficiencies in his game. To be fair to him, we desperately needed his reflexes back in the day as the team as a whole was so poor that our goal was constantly being peppered with shots, and he saved our skin more often than not. These days, we look far more like a unit and De Gea's lack of presence is starting to feel like a weak link. You can't help but wonder if a keeper with a stronger personality would improve the whole defence and sort out some of our obvious frailties.
Every game we seem to concede weak goals. His lack of involvement in any area of play that isn’t shot stopping is a massive part of that. Newcastle had a game plan based on bringing our defenders out then pushing them back in....,because they know our keeper is glued to his line. It’s embarrassing
Really does bare repeating, what a disastrous decision that new contract for him really was. We should have been considering getting rid of him that summer not making him the highest paid player in the league. Think it was even worse than the Sanchez contract because it was even more obvious he was on the decline.
Nice post. On the last part, Henderson looks a lot more comfortable playing out from the back than De Gea. I thought that was going to be a weakness for Henderson based on prior comments re Sheff Utd and his league debut but it actually looks a real strength and is also an obvious weakness for DDG.
Managers are always reluctant to bite the bullet on swapping keepers. However, the reality is that DDG in recent weeks has not looked convincing.We look a much more confident defensive unit with Henderson playing. Unfortunately, I don’t think Ole is going to make the call this season now.
Why is there even a debate about Dave? The man is on Sanchez like wages(if not bigger) yet doesn't perform. He's on the decline and has been for a good couple of years now.
What happened to our ruthlessness that this club was famous for? Did we let the standard fall so low that a game where he doesn't make a mistake is now considered an achievement. Blows my mind really...
What happened to our ruthlessness that this club was famous for? Did we let the standard fall so low that a game where he doesn't make a mistake is now considered an achievement. Blows my mind really...
Thought bar one or two suspect kicks he was good last night. Even heard him shouting at the CB’s
Bit shit seeing so much hate for De Gea if I am being honest, this guy was absolutely outstanding for us season after season, helped us look a lot better than we actually were for parts of our worst periods since SAF left, lauded as our best ever Keeper and rightly so, he was the best in the world for so long and again that was playing for a terrible United team,
It's clear to see over the last 2-3 seasons his quality has dropped quite dramatically for a keeper of his ilk and high standards and it's really sad to see, I think it's a mix of constant gk coaching changes, not having anyone challenge him really and knowing he will play week in week out which put him in a comfort zone but I do feel he deserves a bit more respect from united fans,
Peak De Gea was absolutely outstanding, probably the best i've ever seen , so whatever happens to him he will leave a legend for this club, his replacement when that day comes will have some massive shoes to fill.
It's clear to see over the last 2-3 seasons his quality has dropped quite dramatically for a keeper of his ilk and high standards and it's really sad to see, I think it's a mix of constant gk coaching changes, not having anyone challenge him really and knowing he will play week in week out which put him in a comfort zone but I do feel he deserves a bit more respect from united fans,
Peak De Gea was absolutely outstanding, probably the best i've ever seen , so whatever happens to him he will leave a legend for this club, his replacement when that day comes will have some massive shoes to fill.
I am fond of De Gea but I am sad that his weaknesses at 19 years of age is exactly the same as his weaknesses at 30 years of age. That shows no improvement in 11 years playing at the top level. How can that be?
He always had great shot stopping reflexes but that will surely fade eventually. And what's left keeping you at the top at a late age is a strong presence in the area and leadership at the back, of which he has none.
Sad, but he has to be cut early for allowing himself to drift away like this.
He always had great shot stopping reflexes but that will surely fade eventually. And what's left keeping you at the top at a late age is a strong presence in the area and leadership at the back, of which he has none.
Sad, but he has to be cut early for allowing himself to drift away like this.
Taking crosses - 19th in the league (4.1% claimed)
Wow that's really damning. Watching Henderson regularly claim crosses feels so strange. My eyes are not used to that from my keeper.
What's this guy been doing in training the past decade.
Wow that's really damning. Watching Henderson regularly claim crosses feels so strange. My eyes are not used to that from my keeper.
What's this guy been doing in training the past decade.
Excellent post. But of course player management decisions are always more complicated than what the stats, which can be misleading no matter how finely calibrated they may be, tell us.
Each of can come to our own conclusion on this, but the question really whether Henderson is ready to take over as our first choice keeper and the answer is clearly no. Unlike most outfield players who can be swapped in and out without disrupting rhythm too much, the keeper plays such a huge role in how defenders make decisions that lead — or hopefully not lead — to goals conceded. Maguire et al know De Gea will not go beyond the six yard box to collect a cross...Henderson will. Neither is inherently the right or wrong philosophy (for lack of a better term). Maguire et all know De Gea is a better shot stopper. The tendencies, strengths and weaknesses of keepers has an impact on the behavior of defenders and you don’t want to disrupt that in mid season.
Ole has it right in playing Dave in PL and Dean in the cup ties. Going into next season, it’s fair game to have both compete for top keeper.
As for how we got here, I would just say we need to show a lot more respect for a keeper who kept us well above the bottom half of the table while we had some seriously shit chop/change back lines. What Dave did for us during those years was nothing short of sensational.
I know it's probably counterproductive to the backline to have keepers swapping and changing too often, but why don't we use Henderson in the games where we know the opposition will be looking for high balls into the box and set pieces?
Leave De Gea in goal for the teams likely to shoot from open play/the ground. We could actually turn this into a positive position to be in.
Leave De Gea in goal for the teams likely to shoot from open play/the ground. We could actually turn this into a positive position to be in.
That would mean Henderson every game, as pretty much every team we play is targetting De Gea's aerial weakness now
Out of interest, what makes you say this? Only the stats clearly show Henderson has been the better shot stopper over the last two seasons.
And you can guarantee that those 4.1% were horrible crosses that De Gea barely moved for...
Only observation, which I freely admit is subject to bias...as are statistics. Statistics rely on assigning categories to phenomena. A scuffed ball from point blank could lead to a very easy save. A shot from the same distance could require an epic — we might even say, De Geaesque — save. A powerful shot from short range could be straight at the keeper, or require an outstanding reaction three feet from the keeper. Both go down as saves in the stats book.
I like Henderson and really can see him as the future for United. But it’s a bit premature to write off De Gea as a broken down keeper.
This video shows all you need to know with De Gea.
And the thing is you could pick out multiple times of Deano coming for it and multiple times of De Gea waiting on his line
This teams biggest flaw is defending crosses and set pieces. David makes that problem worse. Deano makes it better.
Not saying Deano is the better keep but in this team he would help solve our biggest problem.
I know it's easy to say this but I don't believe Sir Alex would have stood by De Gea this long, you've got to be talking well into the double figures of high profile mistakes he's made that have costs us points over the last few years. He's also cost us in Europe and he also totally derailed our FA Cup semi final last season with two absolute howlers.
Potential is now gone, this is the finished article. His shot stopping ability is on the decline, his confidence is low and most of all above anything else he's not a brave enough keeper in my opinion.
Potential is now gone, this is the finished article. His shot stopping ability is on the decline, his confidence is low and most of all above anything else he's not a brave enough keeper in my opinion.
This season? When?
There have only been two times this season I've thought that he pulled off a save that an average keeper probably wouldn't have done, and one of them was a save with his legs (which is something he is still fairly good at). That leaves just one truly fantastic flying save, but even that was no better than other keepers pull off every now and then. Just off the top of my head I would say that Leno's save from Fred in our recent Arsenal match was better than any save De Gea has done this season, and I don't rate him particularly highly either.
The things I'd think goalkeepers improve with age are presence and reading of the game, while the agility and reflexes should decline with age. He has never looked like improving the former and the latter are showing signs of decline, at least he's not pulling off many worldies anymore.
The best teams in the league have goalkeepers who claim the penalty box, sweep when needed and allow high lines and offside traps that defenders can trust, at least they do not pull a Harry Maguire who takes that early step every time a set piece comes into the box, making everyone onside.
I really think we missed a trick when he was given that expensive extension, we needed another type of goalkeeper to really push on. It reminds me of when Liverpool sold Coutinho, he was one of their best players but clearly not suited to their best system, so they cashed in before it was obvious.
There is almost a goal-a-game now where you ask yourself if another keeper would have claimed that cross. It's too costly and there is no calmness to that backline. Henderson should get a chance to stake his claim with a run in the team, De Gea's upside is not making up for his faults anymore.
The best teams in the league have goalkeepers who claim the penalty box, sweep when needed and allow high lines and offside traps that defenders can trust, at least they do not pull a Harry Maguire who takes that early step every time a set piece comes into the box, making everyone onside.
I really think we missed a trick when he was given that expensive extension, we needed another type of goalkeeper to really push on. It reminds me of when Liverpool sold Coutinho, he was one of their best players but clearly not suited to their best system, so they cashed in before it was obvious.
There is almost a goal-a-game now where you ask yourself if another keeper would have claimed that cross. It's too costly and there is no calmness to that backline. Henderson should get a chance to stake his claim with a run in the team, De Gea's upside is not making up for his faults anymore.
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