So, I've been looking at the data that the NHS released today, regarding pre existing conditions and also the Manchester Uni study done which predicts the amount of infections we've had so far. It seems to to suggest that playing football in the Premier League, is way more dangerous to people in the age group of Premier League footballers, than Covid-19 is.
They think that 29% could have been infected. So if we go with about half that number and say 1/6th of the population has had the virus. Out those that had it, 75,000 were hospitalized and 95% of them had pre existing conditions. 20% of those in hospital were u45's.
So 15,000 U45's in hospital and only 10% (it says 5% but let's double it), were otherwise healthy. So 1500, based on 1/6th of the population. So if every healthy u45 in the country got it (which wont happen, as many already have and it wont spread like that) over the next 4 months, that would mean about 9000 hospitalizations out of 30 million people. So the odds are about 3333/1. There are about 500 Premier League footballers and at least 25 have to end up in hospital each season through bad injuries etc.
I know they are also worried about the potential of spreading to their young families, but in reality, if we were to worry about things that pose the same level of threat as Covid does, to young healthy people, then we'd never leave the house. By the end of April, only 360 people, under the age of 45 had died. Today's NHS data, say's 95% of those had pre existing conditions, the vast majority of which would have been known about. So that means less than 50 people who were either healthy, or unaware they had a pre existing illness, died. That's out of a population of 30,000,000. To put that in perspective, about 1000 people, under the age of 45, die in road accidents each year and we don't close the roads! 10,000 OAP's die of flu each year and we don't lock them down.
Surely the key is to have extremely strict social distancing observed towards vulnerable groups. If that is done, then there doesn't seem to be any reason why football (and society in general) can't resume. We don't need BCD, we can have crowds and they don't need to social distance, as long as it's all younger people, with stadiums policed and staffed by younger people. If your life is such, that you simply can't adhere to strict distancing from vulnerable groups, then you too are part of the vulnerable group.
Personally, having thought about it a lot since last night and the data I've read today, then I think we'd be far, far better off going into next Oct, with a large portion of younger, healthy, people already having had the virus. Football could lead the way. Crowds of 20,000 sitting next to each other, not spaced out. Unless you think a vaccine is around the corner, I can't think of a better strategy than a young person vanguard, in a move towards heard immunity.