Glad to meet a fellow professional here.I do not think businessmen running football in Germany fully understand the difference between proper testing and rapid testing for Covid-19.
Conventional testing involves molecular diagnostics using what is known as Polymerase Chain Reaction. The testing method is labour-intensive and takes several hours to complete (sometimes up to a day in health-constrained environments). Further, real-time PCR requires different kinds of primers and probe sets that are in short supply all across the globe, including in the UK.
So, as an alternative, different companies have come up with what are known as rapid testing kits. Again, there are different kinds of rapid test kits available in the market that make use of either the antigen (virus protein etc.) or the antibody (human response against the virus particles). These tests have significantly shortened the time required for testing Covid-19, but with a big, big caveat - they are only accurate (sensitivity) anywhere from 34 to 80% of the times, according to the WHO.
If that wasn’t bad enough, the WHO has the following recommendations for rapid tests:
Germany has a much better health infrastructure than the UK. It is extremely likely that they will be the first country in Europe to resume their football behind closed doors, but anyone assuming that government authorities will approve of BCD football in just one month relying on rapid point-of-care testing has no clue about this whole thing. The only way football can get going is when the curve of the epidemic has significantly flattened, which again, is difficult to objectify. We are several months away from real football in the UK.
- Antigen-based rapid testing: NOT recommended for patient care, although research into their performance and potential diagnostic utility is highly encouraged.
- Antibody-based rapid testing: NOT recommended for patient care but encouraged to continue using it to establish their usefulness in disease surveillance and epidemiologic research.
Theoretically, the spread of the virus is not going to slow down until at least 50-60% of the population have immunity by infection or vaccination, either way I don't see it happen any soon.
If you really want to objectify whether the crisis has past, you'll need a large scale epidemiological surveillance using serological methods testing the presence of antibody in citizens. It wouldn't be safe for recreational events (including football matches) to resume unless antibody is found in 80-90% of the population.