Could Ten Hag guide United to the Premier League title?

[Remember the geese]

We'd need to get a lot of things right on and off the pitch. Plus a little help from our friends. The biggest help would be for Pep to leave/City to get punished accordingly. In terms of what we need to do that is within our control, much of it has already been said. Recruitment is huge of course, plus we need to get the injury situation under control. On the pitch, ten Hag needs to be able to coach that same relentless/suffocating swarm over the opposition that Arsenal, Liverpool and City all produce.

Get all that right and we can at least talk about competing again.

 

[Mr. MUJAC]

It depends on a number of factors just like at all clubs.

1. He buys better players for certain positions (will he be allowed?)
2. Will we have a better season with atrocious injuries
3. Will 2-3 players have better form than last year (Onana, Rashford, Antony, Mount)
4. Sort out the Sancho, Greenwood noise
5. Get a bit of luck

Then, like other clubs, it's possible.

 

[Shark]

Fair enough. See that is where I stood in terms of candidates. I can see why he needs to be sacked. The football was horrendous.

Then I see fans screaming standards of winning the league and CL but will not mention a suitable candidate. No manager we were linked to win us the league in 1/2 years, so why hire them?

We would spend 10m sacking Ten Hag for a sideways move?

If he gets past christmas, we can win the league under him because no way I see him in the job unless by then we have massively improved in our play.

You can scream about standards, and accept that the standard wasn't available, but you won't catch me celebrating the fact that we were as a result forced into keeping this manager on after overseeing that season. If Ancelotti was available for example I would have driven ETH to the airport myself.

 

[Rista]

Sticking stubbornly with suicidal tactics for the entire season vs playing differently in one cup game. Hmm, definitely proves he is adaptable.

 

[Tap]

Top 4 and domestic cup wins is probably the max he can achieve

 

[Jeffthered]

Can't see it.

 

[troylocker]

Numerous threads and discussions have been made regarding the potential dismissal of Ten Hag. However, INEOS has opted to keep him. Therefore, it's worth discussing what Ten Hag could accomplish at Manchester United moving forward. Admittedly, this season has been marred by poor performance and results. Many overlook the profound impact of the significant injuries to our players on our overall season. Without these setbacks, it's highly likely that we would have secured a top-four finish. Even in such adversity, we finished the season just eight points from the top four.

Ten Hag has already demonstrated his capability to guide our team to a top-four finish in his first season. Our improved performance in the FA Cup final and in the latter part of the season suggest that Ten Hag is adaptable. Arteta, in his initial two seasons at Arsenal, finished eighth, and in his third, fifth. His journey is a testament to the fruits of patience and backing for long-term success. Under a proper footballing structure and support from INEOS, I firmly believe Ten Hag can easily secure a top-four finish and add to our trophy cabinet next season. Ten Hag is a winner and has all the qualities needed to lead United to success. Three finals and two trophies in two seasons under difficult circumstances are no easy feat. With his winning mentality, there's every possibility of Ten Hag bringing the Premier League trophy to Old Trafford within the next three to four years. This is a statement I stand by confidently.

I'll have some of what you are on, please, whatever drug or strong beverage that is.

Answer to threadtitle: No! Not a chance. If anything, Ten Haag has demonstrated how incapable he is of producing consitant results this season.

 

[romufc]

I'll have some of what you are on, please, whatever drug or strong beverage that is.

Answer to threadtitle: No! Not a chance. If anything, Ten Haag has demonstrated how incapable he is of producing consitant results this season.

And he has also demonstrated he is capable of producing consistent results in season 1.

 

[troylocker]

Oh here we go... 1/2 key players missing myth.

having make shift teams for 2/3 games in a season is different to not having a LB all season, not having your LCB playing most of the season.

Fergie also lost the league multiple times 98 being one of them because Keane was injured.

We played alot of the season with no CDM, LCB,LB. Fergie had 4 ST to chose so if 1 was injured he can play other 3 on rotation.. Ten Hag had 2 and 1 didnt play all season.

You see, there's a difference between losing the title and losing it completely.

In '98 we lost the league by 1 point over a season

In 23/24 we produced more than 1 expected point every game on average compared to City (2,19 xPts/90 vs. 1,17 xPts/90)

Can you see the difference?

It's not like having injuries can explain this alone. ETH not being able to execute a plan, being out of his depth and just not being good enough is a big part of why we were as bad as we were. Not just in some games, but for the entirity of the season. He's also not without responsibility when it comes to having that injury problem in the first place.

He is lucky to have a job, and this can still get uglier. Both for theclub and him. Signing a new contract with him now would be total madness, unless there is specific resultbased release clauses in there.

 

[romufc]

You see, there's a difference between losing the title and losing it completely.

In '98 we lost the league by 1 point over a season

In 23/24 we produced more than 1 expected point every game on average compared to City (2,19 xPts/90 vs. 1,17 xPts/90)

Can you see the difference?

It's not like having injuries can explain this alone. ETH not being able to execute a plan, being out of his depth and just not being good enough is a big part of why we were as bad as we were. Not just in some games, but for the entirity of the season. He's also not without responsibility when it comes to having that injury problem in the first place.

He is lucky to have a job, and this can still get uglier. Both for theclub and him. Signing a new contract with him now would be total madness, unless there is specific resultbased release clauses in there.

I can see a clear difference, agreed.

A PL winning team losing a player and losing the league, compare to a team that hasn't won a PL in 11 years, yo -yo between 3/4th and 6th since then... now do you see a difference there too?

ETH not being able to execute has got a part to play in it, I agree but the fact that you think injuries has not had the biggest impact, clearly shows an agenda.

Liverpool after winning the title almost hitting 100 points, lost VVD and then were struggling to get top 4.

Arsenal lost Saliba at the end of the season before and fell off.

But yeah injuries has no impact on teams, I see.

 

[noodlehair]

I don't agree we got better towards the end of the season anyway. We had a couple of months around/just after Christmas around when Hojlund was in good form where the results were OK, but the performances were still largely bad. Then after that we were awful.

Also no is the answer. Although I don't put that entirely down to ETH. It seems INEOS aren't willing or aren't able to invest in the team and nothing is happening it that's the case, regardless of who the manager is.

 

[Teja]

Nope. He had Martinez + Varane available and in good form for a majority of 22/23 and Casemiro close to his peak and what we achieved was ~6th in xGD (and 6th in most other metrics). We weren't a particularly free scoring team either - the strategy was to take a lead and sit back and counter and we hung on for quite a few 1 goal wins. The pressing / build up was also extremely flakey. The less said about the second season, the better.

His best tactics are to sit in mid block, force a transition opportunity and score a goal. A Dutch David Moyes. He'll be good for 4th - 6th depending on how other clubs fare this season and how good our transfers are but no chance he takes the step up.

 

[bosnian_red]

The bar to win the title will be seriously reduced once Pep leaves City, hopefully next summer (now that Klopp is also gone). The door will swing wide open that it'll be much easier to get your side up to that level.

Of course, you still will need to build a team to be a high 80's side, but points totals are very much a mental thing IMO and teams just aren't able to keep up with City and it gets demotivating I'm sure, similar to when Sir Alex was here. I can see 2025-2030 having some of the post Sir Alex/pre Pep premier league stage of unpredictability in the league where there was no outstanding side but everyone scrapping and changing every season for who has their shit together. So by that logic, yes, Ten Hag absolutely can. Relies on a lot more than him, but he has to sort us out tactically too. But Mainoo, Garnacho, Hojlund, Dalot, Amad can all be big building blocks for the next title winning side.

 

[always_hoping]

We need to have a squad on par with City and Arsenal's.

Busy time ahead for Jim and Co. The season just finished highlighted the lack of strength in depth and quality in the United squad with the injuries and some amount of dead wood needs to be shipped out.

 

[Nogbadthebad]

Anything is possible.

But not with this squad.

And not while city can still cheat.

 

[Pickle85]

Anything is possible.

But not with this squad.

And not while city can still cheat.

This was one syllable away from being a haiku. Maybe get rid of 'and' from the last line?!

 

[luke511]

If he gains the ability to learn from his mistakes at a far quicker rate, then it’s possible.

 

[Todd]

Not a chance.

If you look at the numbers, outside of a freak anomalous season nobody's in the running for the league without scoring at least 85 goals. We're literally 30 goals away from that.

We're not competing for the league until half of the first eleven is overhauled and that's going to be a multi-year project assuming that from here on out we get every transfer right, and our track record is that we get maybe 40% of our transfers right.

 

[Blood Mage]

I think I'd bet my entire savings account on the answer being no.

 

[peridigm]

116 charges says no.

 

[romufc]

Nope. He had Martinez + Varane available and in good form for a majority of 22/23 and Casemiro close to his peak and what we achieved was ~6th in xGD (and 6th in most other metrics). We weren't a particularly free scoring team either - the strategy was to take a lead and sit back and counter and we hung on for quite a few 1 goal wins. The pressing / build up was also extremely flakey. The less said about the second season, the better.

His best tactics are to sit in mid block, force a transition opportunity and score a goal. A Dutch David Moyes. He'll be good for 4th - 6th depending on how other clubs fare this season and how good our transfers are but no chance he takes the step up.

Are you able to confirm what metrics you look at to judge how a team does, I generally start with points tally and then take it from there.

 

[Sivorid]

If anyone can do it it's Ezza Ten Hezza.

Seriously though, I doubt it. Even if we ignore his miserable showing in the league so far, we would need a few things to work out in our favour:

1. We need to build a team that can keep up with City. The past few seasons have shown how difficult that is. I don't see us being able to do that anytime soon, unless everything suddenly clicks with our existing players and we bring in a few key additions. Maybe this will change if Pep leaves in the next year or two.
2. We'd need Arsenal to have a drop off. Hard to deny that where they are as a team and their style of play is better than us right now. I can see them winning the league at some point in the next couple of years.
3. We need to progress more than the teams above us. I'm not worried about Villa, Spurs and Newcastle, but Chelsea and Liverpool definitely have just as much potential (or more) as us to challenge for the league.

I really hope he can prove us all wrong though.

 

[Rojofiam]

Busy time ahead for Jim and Co. The season just finished highlighted the lack of strength in depth and quality in the United squad with the injuries and some amount of dead wood needs to be shipped out.

I disagree, this squad is actually a decent base to build on with 10-15 competent players already. The injuries have been really bad, though, as well as the system ten Hag was too stubborn not to abandon.

 

[JediSith]

I think with the right players he might but there’s a major pro and major con with ETH. The pro arguably puts him above a manager like Pep, but the con means he might never get in the position Pep gets his teams in.

Major pro: Can adapt tactics and style of play to specific matches. Pep might adapt formations but style of play remains constant. Maybe if he was more pragmatic in big CL matches City would have more European titles.

Major cons: In match decisions are often baffling, will leave on poor playing favourites and sub players playing well. Also takes too long to drop out of form players. Not giving Amrabat and Amad more chances appear to be mistakes, as does playing Rashford too much.

 

[Teja]

Are you able to confirm what metrics you look at to judge how a team does, I generally start with points tally and then take it from there.

Yes! This is actually my side project right now and I want to make dashboards for team performance analysis. Obviously I'm just some random guy and I might be making shit up and I have no background in sports analytics. Here's my list from data that's open (fbref, understat, opta)

Top-line: xGD/90, npxG, npxGA, open play xG. These should just be good if you're playing well. No excuses for poor performance here beyond injuries.
Possession: Progressive Carries per 90, Progressive passes per 90, Possession, Pass completion %, 10+ pass sequences, build up attacks as a % of total attacks, miscontrols, dispossessed, Attacking 3rd touches, Penalty area touches
Defence: The inverse of the possession metrics (e.g., progressive passes against United per 90, progressive carries against United per 90, average pass completion % for teams against United). PPDA. Zones of control stuff from opta. High turnovers, shot ending high turnovers. Shots conceded. xG/shot.

The only place where we registered close to 3rd in these metrics are High turnovers (but they don't end in shots and PPDA is still low, so can't be explained away as good pressing) and open play xG.

 

[Raoul]

Not while Pep and Arteta are competing with one another. ETH's style seems more suited for one off games where we take 3 points off City, Arsenal or Pool, as opposed to the sort of consistency required to get it done over an entire season. 3rd place would be the best case scenario given the competition. Happy to be proven wrong.

 

[AltiUn]

Could Ten Hag guide United to the Premier League title?

Nope!

 

[georgegroves]

I honestly don’t see us winning it again, in my lifetime anyway. The FA’s stranglehold on us it too strong, the ABU agenda is so strong we can be robbed and no one will care. Its easy to get away with united getting shafted, no one cares, most enjoy it. Some of the decisions last season and the season before have been genuinely unfathomable. We are leading by 1 goal in the last few minutes? Add on 10 minutes and constantly give free kicks to the opposition. David gill said himself the FA is ABU. When fergie left they dug their heels in and unfortunately i dont think they would ever allow united winning a title again.

 

[romufc]

Yes! This is actually my side project right now and I want to make dashboards for team performance analysis. Obviously I'm just some random guy and I might be making shit up and I have no background in sports analytics. Here's my list from data that's open (fbref, understat, opta)

Top-line: xGD/90, npxG, npxGA, open play xG. These should just be good if you're playing well. No excuses for poor performance here beyond injuries.
Possession: Progressive Carries per 90, Progressive passes per 90, Possession, Pass completion %, 10+ pass sequences, build up attacks as a % of total attacks, miscontrols, dispossessed, Att 3rd touches
Defence: The inverse of the possession metrics (e.g., progressive passes against United per 90, progressive carries against United per 90, average pass completion % for teams against United). PPDA. Zones of control stuff from opta. High turnovers, shot ending high turnovers. Shots conceded. xG/shot.

The only place where we registered close to 3rd in these metrics are High turnovers (but they don't end in shots and PPDA is still low, so can't be explained away as good pressing) and open play xG.

I like that but the Opta link goes to 23/24 not 22/23.

 

[Teja]

I like that but the Opta link goes to 23/24 not 22/23.

Thanks - Yeah they keep hiding the old seasons unfortunately. I haven't found a way to get the data. I downloaded this season's page locally for posterity.

 

[always_hoping]

I disagree, this squad is actually a decent base to build on with 10-15 competent players already. The injuries have been really bad, though, as well as the system ten Hag was too stubborn not to abandon.

10 to 15 competent players is pushing it. If I was to name ten it would include a few I'm not sure you can rely on with their injury track record.

 

[Redstain]

Absolutely no chance

There are too many insufficiencies in his management, the team even in the first season were inconsistent by way of performances. Erik tried to rectify that in the second season and it caused a dearth in midfield positionally. He doesn't have the tactical nous to inspire the team to win home and away over consecutive periods.

That's always been the hallmarks of a good manager in a league campaign, I also remember Arsenal going for sustained periods unbeaten even before Arteta started to actually challenge for the league.

I think Erik is a decent manager United can use for short term stability but if the impetus is to win a domestic title he has all the wrong ingredients.

 

[Atheist]

We can’t even get a healthy goal difference in the league and we’re supposed to believe this guy can get us to challenge for the title. You cannot be serious - we need to be scoring atleast 30 more goals per season to be even in with a chance of competing. None of his tactics have remotely shown in both seasons that he can get us to dominate and score many goals.

 

[romufc]

Thanks - Yeah they keep hiding the old seasons unfortunately. I haven't found a way to get the data. I downloaded this season's page locally for posterity.

Fair enough, I do understand though, we have been poor in almost every metric the season just gone, I will not even try justify that. We just have to hope that he can improve this team.

Regardless of manager, all we will do is hope, gamble.

 

[Rojofiam]

10 to 15 competent players is pushing it. If I was to name ten it would include a few I'm not sure you can rely on with their injury track record.

Good enough to be potential key players for a title challening team: Mainoo, Garnacho, Hojlund, Dalot, Mount, Martínez, Rashford, Shaw, Onana, Fernandes, Maguire, maybe Amad

Good enough for a squad role: Kambwala, Malacia, AWB, maybe McTominay and Lindelöf

 

[troylocker]

I can see a clear difference, agreed.

A PL winning team losing a player and losing the league, compare to a team that hasn't won a PL in 11 years, yo -yo between 3/4th and 6th since then... now do you see a difference there too?

ETH not being able to execute has got a part to play in it, I agree but the fact that you think injuries has not had the biggest impact, clearly shows an agenda.

Liverpool after winning the title almost hitting 100 points, lost VVD and then were struggling to get top 4.

Arsenal lost Saliba at the end of the season before and fell off.

But yeah injuries has no impact on teams, I see.

I don't disagree with injuries playing a role, but not 0,58 expected points per game difference.

The example with Liverpool looks extreme, but the underlying numbers are actually an interesting study:

Liverpool 19/20 season:
99 points - Expected points 74,28 (1,95 xPts/90)
They overperformed (margins and luck) massively throughout the season (24,72 points over performance) and won the league comfortably.

Then the follow up season (20/21) with injuries to VVD and other key players:
69 points - Expected points 68,80 (1,81 xPts/90)
A season were they played a little worse, but since they didn't have the same margins or luck that season ended up taking a less points. Their general play though wasn't that much worse and didn't justify more than 0,14 xPts/90 (or 7% lower than the season before)

Compare that to us. ETH first season :
75 points - Expected points 66,40 (1,75 xPt/90)
A season where we overperformed a good bit and got 3rd despite being 6th on the xPts table.

ETH this season:
60 points - Expected points 44,42 (1,17 xPts/90)
A season were we overperformed heavily and got 8th despite being 15th on the xPts table .
Dropping off to the extreme in quality all over the pitch, the general play were catastrophically bad and justified a negative change of 0,58 xPts/90. (or 33% lower than the season before)

Can you see the difference?

 

[romufc]

I don't disagree with injuries playing a role, but not 0,58 expected points per game difference.

The example with Liverpool looks extreme, but the underlying numbers are actually an interesting study:

Liverpool 19/20 season:
99 points - Expected points 74,28 (1,95 xPts/90)
They overperformed (margins and luck) massively throughout the season (24,72 points over performance) and won the league comfortably.

Then the follow up season (20/21) with injuries to VVD and other key players:
69 points - Expected points 68,80 (1,81 xPts/90)
A season were they played a little worse, but since they didn't have the same margins or luck that season ended up taking a less points. Their general play though wasn't that much worse and didn't justify more than 0,14 xPts/90 (or 7% lower than the season before)

Compare that to us. ETH first season :
75 points - Expected points 66,40 (1,75 xPt/90)
A season where we overperformed a good bit and got 3rd despite being 6th on the xPts table.

ETH this season:
60 points - Expected points 44,42 (1,17 xPts/90)
A season were we overperformed heavily and got 8th despite being 15th on the xPts table .
Dropping off to the extreme in quality all over the pitch, the general play were catastrophically bad and justified a negative change of 0,58 xPts/90. (or 33% lower than the season before)

Can you see the difference?

No I cant because I have never seen a league title or any other trophy, league position handed by expected points.

Since when has football become about expected points? Its football, luck is going to play a part.

Are you saying Liverpool didnt deserve to get 99 points because their expected points was lower.

So Liverpool underperformed by 35% based on points post a VVD injury and United 22% after all our injuries.

Those are the facts because points are not awarded based on Xg Xp Xga or anything else.

 

[Swango1980]

Well, if ETH cannot, who can? I think most Man Utd fans realise that there has been much much more wrong with the club other than the manager. I'd be more inclined to ask can INEOS guide Man Utd to the Premier League table?

It'll be INEOS that need to sort out the messes behind the scenes, over 90% none of us will have ever heard about as it is all behind closed doors. They will need to bring in the numerous staff to run the club, who will hopefully flourish in the transfer market. They are the ones that will need to help set the standards of excellence for everyone at the club. I don't think any manager could do that, although their influence would increase hugely if they ever got the chance to work at the club for many many years, were successful and built up that huge trust amongst all other staff (and fans).

I would not confidently back any manager that there would be certainty they could lead Man Utd to the PL title. Not even Pep or Ancelotti, even though they are fine managers. But, I don't think ETH is useless. In fact, I think he has many excellent attributes. He's had a rocky start, with issues such as injuries, ill discipline, inadequate players, etc to deal with. But, he's done OK, very well really despite a poor league display this season. I wouldn't have swapped the last 2 seasons with any other manager, and risk not winning a couple of trophies and getting into Europe. Can he win the PL with Man Utd. Simple answer is, I believe, yes. But, it'll be very complicated if we expect that anytime soon, there is so much catching up to do in many departments at the club.

 

[Kirk lazarus]

I don't disagree with injuries playing a role, but not 0,58 expected points per game difference.

The example with Liverpool looks extreme, but the underlying numbers are actually an interesting study:

Liverpool 19/20 season:
99 points - Expected points 74,28 (1,95 xPts/90)
They overperformed (margins and luck) massively throughout the season (24,72 points over performance) and won the league comfortably.

Then the follow up season (20/21) with injuries to VVD and other key players:
69 points - Expected points 68,80 (1,81 xPts/90)
A season were they played a little worse, but since they didn't have the same margins or luck that season ended up taking a less points. Their general play though wasn't that much worse and didn't justify more than 0,14 xPts/90 (or 7% lower than the season before)

Compare that to us. ETH first season :
75 points - Expected points 66,40 (1,75 xPt/90)
A season where we overperformed a good bit and got 3rd despite being 6th on the xPts table.

ETH this season:
60 points - Expected points 44,42 (1,17 xPts/90)
A season were we overperformed heavily and got 8th despite being 15th on the xPts table .
Dropping off to the extreme in quality all over the pitch, the general play were catastrophically bad and justified a negative change of 0,58 xPts/90. (or 33% lower than the season before)

Can you see the difference?

There's no need to use xg , over performing / underperforming it . It doesn't really matter .

They were capable of over performing it by a vast amount with all key personnel available . They lost that capability when they didn't .


You disagree that injuries affect performance by as much as 0.58 pts per game ?

The actual reality is that it affected them a lot more than that . A 30 point drop off over 38 games is closer to 0.8 points per game .
That actually happened , we don't need underlying metrics , it's a stone cold fact .

Rodri , 1 player , check city with and without.
Does city's expected win rate drop by the actual true real life value ?

He missed 5 games around November December , they got 3 points .

That's a team that get around 2.5 points per game . They lost one player and it dropped below a point a game . This happened

Sometimes , stuff that actually happened is easier to interpret .

Missing key players really hurts .

 

[romufc]

There's no need to use xg , over performing / underperforming it . It doesn't really matter .

They were capable of over performing it by a vast amount with all key personnel available . They lost that capability when they didn't .


You disagree that injuries affect performance by as much as 0.58 pts per game ?

The actual reality is that it affected them a lot more than that . A 30 point drop off over 38 games is closer to 0.8 points per game .
That actually happened , we don't need underlying metrics , it's a stone cold fact .

Rodri , 1 player , check city with and without.
Does city's expected win rate drop by the actual true real life value ?

He missed 5 games around November December , they got 3 points .

That's a team that get around 2.5 points per game . They lost one player and it dropped below a point a game . This happened

Sometimes , stuff that actually happened is easier to interpret .

Missing key players really hurts .

Exactly, people are now avoiding facts and saying things like xpoints and x whatever...

The facts are there for everyone to see.. the drop off when top teams have their best player out.

Check Arsenal, they all cry that they lost the league cause Saliba got injured 2 season ago for 5 games.

X is what could potentially happened /should takes emotion / pressure out the equation, we all know football isnt a perfect science. We should stick to points on the board and evidence that suggests you can have the best football team / squad / players, there will always be a couple individuals that make the difference in a team, when missing are huge.