I noticed on the match discussion that you felt defeats or no wins in the upcoming fixtures would make this situation untenable. Given what Romano has said "things going on in the background" and "the squad unsettled by the takeover uncertainty" Hellier, the bloomberg journalist, "my gut feeling is that Sheikh Jassim will prevail in the end," Phil Brown and the United Muppetier stating that there have been discussions between INEOS and Raine.
Do you or anyone think that October could be relatively progressive month in this situation?
To be completely honest, nothing would surprise me with this takeover however a lot of very credible people have said they seeing it going to Qatar, I think something we very close 3 months ago and the Glazers renegotiated and upset the bidders. My current theory is ;
1. There is ongoing negotiations between Raine and SJ and also INEOS, the Glazers want £6bn, that’s just for them, the debt will have to be paid first before the £6bn is paid for 69% of the club shares and control. They hold all the assets of the club but also all the liabilities which includes an ever increasing Bank of America loan with ever increasing interest rates.
2. INEOS had no intention of buying more than 51% of the club and believed that £2.7-3bn would be enough to take control, however they never factored on the 31% minority share holders.
3. There may be an announcement in next two weeks saying that the Glazers are negotiating a final sale price and due diligence with SJ and 92 Foundation which would certainly be why representatives of bloomberg are speaking out, however they could just as easily change their mind and ask for more again, I do think the Qatar bid is very close to £6bn but it probably includes the club debt of around £800m not the amortised transfer debt, just historical plus club the credit line used for transfers this summer.
4. There has been more than enough time from a M&A point of view to have the framework of the deal ready for potential completion in October to November 23 which would initially grant 92 Foundation the controlling 69% b class shares, after this they would probably want to delist from the NYSE and make a fair trade offer of $36-38 per share for the remaining A Class shares which could take final completion of the club January/February 2024
5. If they complete the contract to buy the Glazer shares by November 23, then pass the fit and proper Directors test, providing they pay off the debt and make an investment of £30m they could probably spend £150-200m in the January transfer window, especially if they got rid of McTominay and Maguire.
6. If and it’s a still a very big if SJ does take over by October/November 2023 and ETH has lost 6 or 7 games from say 14/15 EpL games, they will get rid of him without hesitation and try and bring in Zidane who has huge connections with Qatar.