There’s no noise that either SJ or Sir James Arthur Ratcliffe FIChemE are wining or losing, the reality is we are at a delicate position in the process;
1. All Parties have signed strict NDA’s
2. The minority share holders have made it clear which bid they prefer.
3. No one will pull out as a decision has to be be made in next 4 weeks one way or another
4. Share price has fallen a dollar recently due to the delay in decision but still over $22
5. Financial results for last year are better than expected
Summary - It looks like two to three weeks ago some form of communication between the Glazers, Raine Group and 92 Foundation occurred, SJ possible even was told verbally that his bid would win.
His group leaked this information out to local news outlet, Reuters, Bloomberg etc or maybe The Raine Group did simply because they want the highest commission. The rumour of that 5th bid was nearer to £5.4/5.5bn and more importantly would be made in one single payment, their previous bid was rumoured to be a two payment structure, similar to the INEOS bid. The conveniently leaked story that the minority share holders would take the Glazers and Sir James Arthur Ratcliffe FIChemE to court was possibly to make the public feel like INEOS bid was dead on arrival.
It’s clear that both Joel and Avram prefer the INEOS bid and they’ve asked Sir James Arthur Ratcliffe FIChemE to go away and find the additional money to bid for now 80% of the club while they stall the other 4 siblings. This was a theory running through my head, then I listened to a great podcast including ‘Tom the Journalist’ yesterday who said exactly the same thing.
Two Glazers stalling to allow Sir James Arthur Ratcliffe FIChemE to find additional funds to appease the minority, of course all the time hoping that maybe SJ and 92 Foundation either pull out which means the minority are much easier to subdue or heavens forbid actually increase their bid to the £6bn, the Glazers have always wanted?
Either way Joel and Avram win, as much as I love my club, there’s a small part of me that wants both bidders to just pull out and call the Glazers Bluff, hopefully sending us spiralling downwards.
As a united fan I was once asked would you take being relegated to get rid of the Glazers and the answer for me has always and will always be a resounding yes