A bit of repetition but not much is going on.
Runners and riders, the final furlong, hopefully.
SJR
Willingness to buy
100 %, fan, localish, personal legacy - something to be known/remembered for - Jack Walker style
Ability to buy
Relying on an assortment of finance, bonds loans - leveraged against his existing company INEOS. Attempting financial acrobatics with ownership structure
Current position
Appears behind, needs to up/improve bid, but complicated
Issues - may need time but he can deal with complicated.
Issues
Ownership model with Glazers remaining
Will upset class A shareholders
Media
The Times
Little to nothing new reported in the last week.
Indicates that matters are delicate.
SJ
Willingness to buy
100%
Stated as a fan.
If true then, like many of us, would 'dream' of owning the club in some way.
Ability to buy
Has financial muscle, it is known that persons from those regions have significantly underestimated wealth.
But, questions over state assistance (Emir also being a United fan).
Current position
Leading and will be pushing hard in tying up the exclusivity agreement.
Media
Mike Keegan - The Mail
Quiet last week suggesting everything is sensitive, at this stage.
Issues
Not a great deal is known about him.
State funding and all that brings.
Glazers
Willingness to sell
100% (will need to sell now or very soon)
Since placing club on NYSE, selling 10% of the business, they have taken out hundreds of millions via regular share sales, 20% subsequently.
Now their holding is down to the majority owner threshold of 2/3s, and they can't sell much more, mere 3 percent left (still vast sums but some siblings have sold and may have nothing to little else to sell - assumption being that they all have to agree to the sales to preserve the family majority ownership of the business).
They have, so far, sold off 30.29% of the club (all the figures are a bit rough)
They need to hold onto 66.66% (2/3).
Therefore 3.05% left is left before the magic 2/3 ownership is reached (to retain the quorum) – value of each share being $14 (normalish value range) meaning they could raise $45 million and then that is it, no more dilution ($45 million divided by 6 siblings being £7.5 million each or whatever they agree or are due according to their internal agreements).
Dividends have dried up and can barely be justified, financially.
Current position
Have a bid that meets most of the requirements, SJ’s bid.
However willing to give SJR an opportunity to improve his bid but he will have been told that the incentives are time driven by SJ.
Issues
Universally unpopular
Have run the club into the ground – no intention to invest in Old Trafford or facilities – there is no short-term return for the vast capital injection required. That injection, via an investor, can only be dumped on the club as a loan, no intention of simply investing in the club because that benefits the other 30% shareholders (theoretically).
Their finances (have used the club as a cash cow). Generally little immediate return in the club
Can take equity share sale, via Investment Funds, but the costs are high and long term not worthwhile, unless the club’s value is guaranteed to go through the roof – otherwise the investment funds are not really a true option.
Class A shareholders, who appear to have been poorly served may take legal action if the Glazers fail to compensate them. Those institutional shareholders are hardnosed business entities. They can afford the costs of litigation. This will concern the Glazers - it would be battle against equals and played out publicly. Their period of ownership, being the focus, and their failings forensically debated – they will look very bad.
Possible action against the Glazers- misrepresentation
When the shares, Class A, were originally sold, they were touted, according to the original sales prospectus, as having equal value with Class B shares. Despite that premise it is obvious that Class B shares command greater worth than Class A shares.
Breach of fiduciary duty
Glazer’s have governance of the company, but they appear to be running it only for the Glazer family benefit and not in the interest of all the shareholders, therefore breach of their fiduciary duties.
Side point, even the transfer window, appears to an apparent sham, they have to look active (serving the needs of the company) but will do the minimum.
Media
Raine released a story, via Reuters, only reason for this is to send a loud message to SJR, last chance saloon.
Prediction
Based on hope, sale statement next week, unless SJR comes up with something that needs consideration. Media silence has to break.