Rightnr
Wants players fined for winning away.
- Joined
- Jan 25, 2015
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- 14,768
Not a trader myself but the price action has remained stable today. Probably means the heavy betting is Qatar wins within a week.As someone who’s a trader, what I would add is the Man Utd stock trading activity doesn’t seem like it is purely based off the back of the Al Watan tweet.
People that know something could certainly be the ones scooping up the stock. There has been no major sell off on the back of the news that nothing has been confirmed yet. In fact, the price has maintained its level and continued to trade with large volumes.
My take is the activity certainly suggests there’s more to the trading than just the Al Watan tweet. If the volume of buying is on the back off people knowing something, it would suggest it’s Sheikh Jassim who is the more likely winner as his is the only proposal to buy out all the shares including the public stock.
For all we know, it could even be SJ’s group buying the stocks at a cheaper level than they would pay when they takeover is official and they enforce the remaining public stocks to be purchased at the agreed takeover price. It would make sense from SJ point of view.
However, what I would add is that from a technical analysis perspective like a mentioned a few days ago, the trading pattern suggested a break to the upside was most likely (without getting too technical). Even without any news I would have expected the price to rise on the breakout pattern from a charting perspective.
Interesting.
Not sure if you can derive a probability for the scenario off options or other derivates but gut feeling definitely says it wasn't just about that 'random' tweet which I have a suspicion may have been deliberately walked back on because the Qataris didn't want to risk it with the NYSE.