I think we can’t underestimate the the impact of the Liverpool match getting cancelled. No saying it’s one or the other, more likely a culmination of things including Glazers running out of money + protests making it harder to get money and adding uncertainty.
Club Sale | It’s done!
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That was my first thought as well, but then again, an NBA team (Phoenix Suns) in a mid-tier market with a very small following (especially in comparison to United) and little history of winning, just sold for 4 Billion.
A fantastic article, backs up what i said yesterday im my more layman terms. Around £4billion. Theres too much work to be done to the stadium/training ground etc.
"...The majority of approaches values Manchester United at around £3-4bln. In order to secure a price over £5bln, they would need to sell at a 50% premium to the revenue multiple implied by Chelsea’s sale to Todd Boehly’s consortium...."
Great point, and to a large extent, the US have always just been ahead of the curve when it comes to TV money etc.
I don’t think it’s a far fetched bet that the PL’s revenues will increase a lot the coming 10 years. Especially if there is inflation in the economy.
Those articles don't mean anything when it comes to valuation. They'll pay whatever needs to be paid. This is not going to be a business purchase based on revenue.
Sounds like a cool project!
It’s just that the stock market have — in the eyes of many — gone crazy the last 5 years in the sense that the valuations haven’t been connected to the fundamentals. Cryptocurrency is another example of this. By many valuation methods their value should be zero. Many stocks aren’t as bad as that of course, but you cannot defend their valuations by looking at the underlying data.
This is just a result of their being way too much money on the market. 20-30 years ago the population of mainly western countries expected a good pension. Now billions of people expects it. To get it — the pension funds must get a good yearly return. 1-3% of interest will not nearly be enough. So it’s invested on the stock market.
Valuations have come down but general P/E figures are still really high. Tesla’s P/E value is 40 despite being down 70% YTD.
My point is just, if it could be assumed that investments only would be made that made sense on paper — a lot of transactions wouldn’t be made.
Nonsense.
You keep going until the job is done
Is there a odds on favourite as to who the new owner will be?
The Saudis literally have people crucified for political dissent. The Crown Prince had a journalist dismembered while still alive for criticising him. Criminal law punishments in Saudi Arabia include public beheading, stoning, amputation and lashing. Serious criminal offences include not only internationally recognized crimes such as murder, rape, theft and robbery, but also apostasy, adultery, witchcraft and sorcery.
If you think that's modern you must be from Leeds.
Savage
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No, not even close to be honest.
Some names popped up the first day or two. After that there have been some sporadic reports, but honestly it’s hard to tell if any of them actually are news or just some kind of spin of what someone else said.
During the first day or two a report was leaked out there with names from all types of buyers, industrial (Apple and co), rich individuals (Ortega and Ratcliffe), Middle East (Dubai) and US consortium’s. These names were surely put out there as a sales effort.
After that, we have basically not heard anything.
-Ratcliffe will make a bid, but won’t want to overpay
-Avram Glazer was in Qatar and supposedly held some talks
-Beckham would be open to holding talks with a consortium
-Some of the US investors in for the Chelsea auction would of course not turn down Man Utd. But could they afford it?
And remember — the economy is in a horrible state right now. The broad indexes are down 30 percent YTD and many many big companies are down 50-70%s. Why does that matters? The way the economy works today, so many aspects are “leveraged”. Elon Musk holds shares for 160bn. I don’t think anyone would be that surprised if it all of a sudden was reported that Musk has big financials problems. How could that be? Someone like Musk has of course always more or less pledged his shares when making investments. Tesla has raised many many billions over the year. If Musk does not invest when Tesla raise capital — his holding is diluted. He haven’t year after year had that money laying around, instead he has loaned it. And to get that loan he pledges his shares. How much money can someone like Musk loan? He could probably loan 50% of the value of the shares he pledges. But now when the Amazon stock is down 70% YTD — if he pledges shares worth 20bn, they are all of a sudden only worth 6bn. That would surely result in that he violates his loan terms — and are asked to pledge more shares.
On the other side you have the banks. If a bank has 1 bn in cash, it can normally loan out like 19bn. The more they lend out, the more money they make. Hence their are strict rules how much they can loan out, they must maintain specific capital to loan ratio. If they have pledges over assets worth 20bn, they can loan out another 20bn and 39bn in total. Well all of a sudden all the assets they have the right to call for if someone doesn’t pay their debt — is worth 20-70% less than it was in January. So they have lended 39bn but are only allowed to lend out like 25bn since the value of the security they hold have decreased. When that happens, special rules kicks in which forces them to cut down on their lending. As a result — it gets tremendously hard to get your hand on “money”.
Deals that extremely easily could get done in January 2022, won’t even remotely be able to find financing in December 2022. Some of the richest people out there with endless access to assets in January 2022, are without any doubt really shaken up right now and down right fears going bankrupt. Musk is too big to fail. But many aren’t.
Imagine if Musk has given 50bn of Tesla shares to the lenders as securities of his loans of say 25bn. Then all of a sudden Musk’s Tesla shares are only worth 20bn. In accordance with the bank laws, the banks must sell off the shares pledged by Musk. If 5bn of Tesla shares hit the market — there would never be enough buyers and the share price would nose dive. What is the result? Yeah, his loan has been paid off by 5bn, but the remaining pledge is just worth 5bn while 20bn remains on the loan. So the banks have to sell all the remaining Tesla shares. After the dust settles, the share wouldn’t be worth 5% of what it is valued today. It won’t happen to Musk, if he did his lenders would get into more problems than him. But how many people have the banks lended money to that face risks like this right now?
When you talk to the banks, the people in charge of the big strategic lending, you can tell by their appearance what kind of market it is. They are shaken up. Nervous.
It’s been mentioned in this thread how Dubai had to get a bail out from Abu Dahbi in 2009. The reason for it was simple, Dubai had made bad investments and was about to turn bankrupt. With the amount of investments Qatar has made — they surely have taken some enormous hits. Credit Suisse is in trouble, the Qataris have made a lot of business with them.
If the Qatar Investment Fund managed 300bn at the start of the year, it’s not as fun if the same assets are worth 150bn January 1 2023. Could definitely have dampening effect on a proposal to buy United for 10bn. We know how heavily these guys have been into Airlines, imagine how much money they lost during the pandemic.
Long story short, of potential buyers — in today’s economy, it is more or less impossible to bet on who would have the resources to buy Manchester United plc. If you could have created a list of 1,000 entities that could have afforded to buy us in January 2022, that list is probably down to 400 today. Just guessing. Could be down to 100 too.
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It's a redundant point. The price of anything is what the market can bear. That's not the same as the intrinsic worth of a club if you strip down its parts and do a monetary calculation.
End of the day the club is only worth what a buyer is willing to pay for it. We don't know what the Glazers book are like but they smell a lot like people who need to sell. So whoever they'd like to buy and for however much, it could end up being to someone else for a good bit less. We're in a world where credit is getting expensive and it's not hard to imagine some of them need to pay off a few debts they've been carrying interet free for a while. But they left it too late and want too much - the sure sign of a greedy investor.
tl;dr this won't go the way the Glazers want.
tl;dr this won't go the way the Glazers want.
In addition, I am a little bitter about the lack of reports. Sure everything is confidential and meeting takes places in rooms journalists don’t have access to. But stick a mic in the face of someone and they will talk. It’s not like “no comments” have stopped English journalists in the past.
I heard Goldbridge describe how some journalists he knew frantically were turning every stone to find out who was buying United. What a load of bull. Most of them have had vacations over the World Cup or been spending time in the sun in Qatar. Nobody have gotten a single word from Jimmy Ratcliffe. Nobody have gotten a single word from the Zara owner. Nobody have gotten a single word from the Raine people. A couple have run into Avram Glazer — by chance.
I am not saying that we would have been much wiser if they had done their job, but we surely would have known more. Back in the good old day before the Twitter searching generation took over the journalists role — we would have known a heck of a lot more than we do now. Sorry for the rant, but…
I heard Goldbridge describe how some journalists he knew frantically were turning every stone to find out who was buying United. What a load of bull. Most of them have had vacations over the World Cup or been spending time in the sun in Qatar. Nobody have gotten a single word from Jimmy Ratcliffe. Nobody have gotten a single word from the Zara owner. Nobody have gotten a single word from the Raine people. A couple have run into Avram Glazer — by chance.
I am not saying that we would have been much wiser if they had done their job, but we surely would have known more. Back in the good old day before the Twitter searching generation took over the journalists role — we would have known a heck of a lot more than we do now. Sorry for the rant, but…
I guess you won’t be going there anytime soon.women have no rights ? Have you seen there shopping bags? They’re treated like queens by their children have you seen how the young ones speak to their mums here in the UK. Their women also get to keep their inheritance and earnings whilst the poor men have to be the providers.
Maybe the reason we dont know the buyers is no one is prepared to offer what the glazers want now and they think by putting out they want to sell by march will panic someone to offer around what they want.
In regards to Dubai the nonsense of they were in financial trouble and had to be bailed out. It was their subsidiary Dubai Holdings and not the parent company investment corporation of dubai. Investment corporation of dubai are the ones with assets of 300 billion. People need to stop posting false statements about Dubai. Really is irrating.
Yeah could be right, sorry about that, but aren’t you underselling their issues a bit. Stock markets across the world soared when Abu Dahbi bailed whatever Dubai entity it was, out. Was it really an issue Dubai could have solved themselves?
Where were these articles when we were buying Maguire for 80M? The price is what the market is ready to pay
well, thats just a guess obviously.. you can't know for sure all the reasons
Thought things might have picked up a bit after the journos returned from Qatar
The quiet before the storm?
When do you reckon it will explode then
Nothing happens financially during the holiday season. Feb or March before they finally cross out the T&Cs? Anything later it would start to affect next season's transfer plans.
Well it's not the parents companies responsibility. I am right too. Look it up and you will find it was dubai holdings. Not the parent company. Also it was around covid time too. Every company or nation was struggling. To be honest they were having financial difficulties like everyone probably. It's just the fact people need to stop posting false information about Dubai having to be bailed out etc. In fairness I have done a business degree so know about companies have a parent and subsidiaries. That is how Dubais funds are set up.
If we’re talking about based investors, then this softens the blow.
Not an expert so no idea if linked to sale but interesting Ducker has seemingly associated the two.
Il take this tweet even though its not saying much. Purely because this thread has gone into madness.
Quite the promotion for Professor Xavier.
Also Captain Picard
Sorry mate buy a compass. It’s not that hard to understand.
I don't know about @desirere but fans can be around for decades, 50-60 years maybe, the club is theirs in essence. Owners are comparatively more fleeting with a responsibility to improve or at least not harm the club. Yeah right, unqualified caretakers most of them.
I'm distantly related to this guy. Had no idea, mind
Not sure what that tweet means. Is it suggesting that because of this move a sale is more or is less likely to happen?
Does he think he's big time because he writes for the telegraph?
I knew that out of everything I wrote this part would be observed controversial.
Take us out of the equation, what’s left? What is a football club without fans? Take us out and whats the actual value of the club again? Take out the owners and someone else will fill their shoes in no time.
Yes, I agree with you, who else pays for everything ultimately?
His background involves legal disputes over commercial rights and relations with stakeholders to name a few things. Could have been appointed for his expertise and to ensure a smooth transition once the new owners come in.
he's probably been appointed to help oversee the process of selling so yeah I guess it does
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