1. A leveraged buyout of a 5bn asset profiting 100m a year? It just does not add up.
-Interest of 5% per year on 5bn — 250m a year
-Amortization on a 5bn loan over 10 years — 500m a year
Where are the club getting 750m per year from to finance the buy-out? If you could buy us for 1bn — a leveraged buy-out might be an alternative. I can guarantee 100% that we will not become the subject of another Malcom Glazer like takeover.
2. But someone might have 5bn in cash laying around and could buy us without investments and just look at taking dividends out?
Let’s say we manage to raise dividend to 50m a year, that would give this type of buyer a return of 0.1% per year.
Hence, I can guarantee 100% that we won’t be buyer by someone like that either.
3. If we are bought, it’s for other reasons than getting a yearly ROI. That reason would be connected to our brand. Someone that think they can profit on that. If we are bought by a US consortium — that is a place holder for a period of say 5-15 years, before we would be sold to either an industrial buyer or someone looking for some kind of sports-washing effect.
In any event — whomever buys us will 100% look to keep our brand at the least intact, which means investments will be required.
4. The worst possible scenario for us is definitely that we are bought by someone — and then circumstances change. Like the Emir of Qatar get their investment fund to buy us, then there is a coup d'etat and money doesn’t arrive, someone buys us and gets sanctioned, some bitcoin stock exchange buys us and goes bankrupt a week later.
But I think we can rule out that someone would buy us without doing so with the intent to invest in the club.