Ridiculous myth that you buy a football club because two strangers are having an argument over a horse.
Club Sale | It’s done!
- Thread starter JB08
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Ridiculous myth that you buy a football club because two strangers are having an argument over a horse.
Exactly this, if the four siblings are selling for £2.25-2.6bn for 63% of the voting shares, the very least they would agree on is 46-49% of the voting shares. Assuming the Glazers want £6bn then 69% of that figure is £4.14bn, the maths state that 63% of that 4.14bn is £2.6bn which means the minority investment values the club at £5bn as well.
The only way this happens is a laddered or Ratcheted minority buy out which is a half way house with a contractual obligation by the Glaziers and VC Carlyle to buy chunks of equity shares released probably every 2 years. This would mean they might buy out the other 4 siblings for £2.2bn( All of this money going to the Glazers). So no money for the club to pay debt, buy players, build stadiums. This means that the remaining glaziers would agree 35%Vc/65% Joel and Avram of controlling shares 69% of club, then in 2025 they buy another 14% so owning 49/51 but this chunk of money again goes to the Glazers then in 2027 they buy another 15% so VC owns 64 and Joel and Avram own 36% of the 69% of voting shares then In 2029 another 15% so VC would own 79% and Avram and Joel 21%, then finally in 2031 the split is 90/10.
If this happens then the VC hedge fund will invest into the club with capital expenditure in the hope they will eventually own most of the asset in 5 or 6 years. This means that they may pay £5-5.5bn for the club over a period of 5 or 6 years with Joel and Avram by then being token directors looking for a final pay day from a small 10% voting stake in 2030.
This method could also be a deal between SJR and a VC joining up just as easily as Elliot’s or Carlyle Agreeing a very extensive contract with Joel and Avram that basically ties them up in knots in 2/3 years where they relinquish control.
This should be all people need to see to understand the idea that a sale was pretense to drive up the value of the club and get a greater amount of credit based on an inflated value. Any hint that they'll stay drops the value massively, no institution with the capital to loan multiple billions, which is the kind of investment needed in the team and infrastructure, is going to be hoodwinked by a temporarily inflated price.
The idea that they've hired raine to go through this process, pissed off potential bidders and its all to secure more funding based on a value that is assigned primarily on the leeches leaving, is just such a poor grasp of economics
Well this is sickening
It presented the opportunity for Glazer to increase his holding and force a buyout. I thought this was well known?
I assumed the poster wasn't been serious.
If only Rock of Gibraltar had been an average racehorse this pain would never have happened.
I have been saying this for years..
stop buying merchandise and buy tickets and the leeches would have to sell.
But people would rather whine about it for 17 years and not do anything.
i used to buy the home/away/3rd kits every year and other merchandise and go yo matches and pay for MUTV.
The last 5 years i have not spent a dime on the club cause of the Glazers. And wont spend until the feckers are out.
I pay for membership in the norwegian supporter club but thats it.
With Glazers you mean "Moving slow like a glacier in the transfer market and sale of club" ?
The stock has absolutely tanked to it's lowest point since the club was put up for sale. There were many reports expressing doubt about the sale, but it never reached this low before. Pretty clear the market feels where this is going. And it also got picked up by Reuters, though they quoted ESPN.
Would've happened sooner or later regardless.
so theyre not selling? we riot
All of these acquisitions could potentially change the biz structure. I seriously doubt, as @Woziak mentioned, that institutional investors would put up over 1billion without a seat on the board and for class A essentially non-voting shares. If, on the other hand, we had Jack Welch / Steve Jobs / Elon Musk as CEO with a proven record of driving extreme shareholder value, maybe you’d see large cash injections for substandard equity positions, but post SAF, there is no evidence to indicate the Glazers are management geniuses. The opposite, in fact.
By reading of the SEC filing, the second sentence says it all. The Glazers clan own 69% of all shares. They’ve already lost Class B rights unless Class A shares held are under 10% of the entire number of shares outstanding. I know they have other institutional investors…not sure if they hold A or B shares. The Glazers control everything now because they have 69% of all shares held. Once they dip below the 67% mark (which they would, if they accepted another multibillion offer for the other Glazer children shares), they effectively lose control of the company.
Scenario 1: Carlyle or another group buy shares of group of 4 Glazers who want out. Those shares convert to Class A shares, it’s above 10%, therefore if Joel/Avram don’t sell, their shares still convert to Class A, one vote per share. They now have the same piece of the company, but are no longer holding Class B shares, which no longer exist. And, since the two of them only have 33%ish, they have lost control.
Scenario 2: Over 10% of outstanding shares are Class A currently, before the sale of shares by the Raine Group. In this case, all shares are Class A, but the Glazers have a voting block of 69% and therefore have been able to maintain control over the management of the club. Once the Gang of 4 Glazers are bought out, you have a situation where no group will own 67%, but all shareholders are equal and any company resolution would require 67% of shareholders approval.
Scenario 3: they rip up the bylaws and build in an new share structure. I don’t see this as likely as there may be certain laws they need to abide by to fulfill SECgoverning requirements.
If the SEC filing is correct, then there may not even be a Class B share anymore, ifI am reading that right. I think this may be spin, but at the end of the day, it’s more likely than not that Joel and Avram, those fecks, will have nothing to do with club management if the other 4 sell.
Can't understand the sense behind staying from the Glazers perspective. A new owner willing to put billions into the club might see the value increase significantly over the next decade, but otherwise what will debt and failure on the pitch mean other than decreased value?
What is the longest thread in Caf history? This will surely blow it out of the water when it reaches its tragic conclusion...
Sancho or Wes Sneijder I believe. Not sure this is close yet. Sancho had 1700+ pages
I’m sure there are way longer mega threads in the general section…. I’m thinking Covid or brexit threads - they are insanely huge
I have no inside information obviously, but as someone thats worked in finance for over two decades I don't see a scenario in the Glazer's current financial position where they really could move forward with a controlling interest. Firstly, its clear they simply can't move forward with their current debt service.
I've said this in other posts but simply put...it makes no finacial sense for them to do a partial sale that keeps them in control...they are too leveraged, and the Glazers would be mad to give up extremely valuable minority equity to simply take out debt when they have current massive bids for a total sale. That "given up" equity would only appreciate more before the eventual future sale down the road. It's beyond stupid and the Glazers are not stupid financially (just in other ways...). This is why there have been partial buyers that have submitted bids that have claimed publicly they don't think the Glazers are serious about the partial bids, and have pulled their offers.
Because of that, I see this as really just a ploy to move up the bid amounts by creating false urgency. It will work sadly...The Glazers are going to make a fortune on this (total) sale.
I highly doubt the full sale is any real danger IMHO...
I've said this in other posts but simply put...it makes no finacial sense for them to do a partial sale that keeps them in control...they are too leveraged, and the Glazers would be mad to give up extremely valuable minority equity to simply take out debt when they have current massive bids for a total sale. That "given up" equity would only appreciate more before the eventual future sale down the road. It's beyond stupid and the Glazers are not stupid financially (just in other ways...). This is why there have been partial buyers that have submitted bids that have claimed publicly they don't think the Glazers are serious about the partial bids, and have pulled their offers.
Because of that, I see this as really just a ploy to move up the bid amounts by creating false urgency. It will work sadly...The Glazers are going to make a fortune on this (total) sale.
I highly doubt the full sale is any real danger IMHO...
Trump too.
I have little faith this pressure will pay off
I wouldnt be surprised if there were some heavy riots if they did stay
All the fun topics then!
Yeah and rightly so because the fanbase,players, Etik and anyone working at the club has been screwed over by them
The club will be sold, give it time.
Kind of weird that Magnier and McManus took on Sir Alex and didn’t just resolve the issue amicably. Any fool could have seen the club and the fan base would side with the gaffer.
Real shame what it lead to however. Very opportunistic of Malcolm Glazer to poach the club the way he did.
cockroaches...
Happy for them to stay but I still don't think it seems very likely.
Er, what?
I'm not looking for an answer, there's no answer that makes sense on a United forum.
Are you actually fecking trolling us
Nah. As much as I don't want Qatari ownership it feels like everything if just haggling until their inevitable takeover.
Okay, thanks.
How many season ticket seats are there?
Forgive my ignorance, but what does the the abbreviation “VC”, stand for ?
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venture capitalist
Not really, there was a court dispute over it ultimately resulting in JP McManus putting the club up for sale. Malcolm Glazer was all the while monitoring the situation in the hope of securing a leveraged buy out.
1046 pages on the Caf and the Glazer's still haven't got the message..the only option left available to us is to dispatch Al Neri to slap them out of the establishment.
Thank you.
From one myth to another.
Obvious you don’t know much about the history. SAF was humiliated.
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