Climate Change | UN Report: Code Red for humanity

[Stack]

Not American, but I'll point out that the decline in western emissions (and some increase in China's) can in part be explained by the offloading of manufacturing to China over the period given. I would like to see an analysis that takes this into account.

There is one significant weakness in that report and its the exclusion of how massive and how fast China is attempting to transition to green energies. Actually there is a second weakness and its co2 emissions per capita which matters. Im in NZ with a tiny population compared to China but we sit easily in the top 10 of worst emitters per capita.
With respect to China and their move to renewables it seems to be conveniently set aside by people trying to justify the west and its emissions.
China off the top of my head in 2022 built 10 times what the rest of the world combined did in terms of renewable energies. The importance of this is the direction and trend they are headed on. Its of double importance because with any technology change being early or faster gives a technology and economy advantage.
Dont get me wrong Chinas emissions are huge but they are light years ahead of most developed nations in terms of transitioning to renewable energies. Trends matter and over time we in the West will be embarrassed by what they are doing.

 

[redshaw]

Wish I knew.
But what I do know is that climate scientists have been very clear that simply reducing or even stopping adding any more CO2 is not enough. Humanity has to find a way to become carbon negative.
And that seems to be proven by the current level of global warming.
We are highly likely to have already reached or exceeded the 1.5C figure.

What I find so concerning is that we are exceeding the previous maximum temperatures, not just by a small amount. But by significantly larger amount. And not just in a few areas. But in very large areas.

Looking into it further, the natural processes of the planet can only remove half what we produce each year so even if we stop now, to get to reasonable levels of say 250ppm-300ppm or 350ppm (year 1990 level) of CO2 and other greenhouses gases it would take around 100 hundred years possibly and perhaps longer for the gases much higher up. Of course there could be a point we can't naturally drop back as Bosnian fan pointed out, I'm just looking at a theoretical standpoint from now.

We're at the 410+ range and keep adding to it each year despite all the efforts so far over the decades and need to be on a downward trajectory yesterday.

It's incredible just how finely balanced the planet temperature is between 0.02-0.04 of CO2 in the atmosphere. Under 0.02 of CO2 we're close to a frozen planet. Past 0.04 of CO2 we're getting into uninhabitable heat.

edit:
99% of the atmosphere made up of oxygen and nitrogen essentially doesn't influence the earth's temperature. We need a tiny bit of carbon and other greenhouse gasses to keep the planet temperate for life otherwise we'd be a frozen planet but even bit more of these heat absorbing gasses can make the planet too hot for us. Not only that but the pressure can increase. Venus at 96% carbon will burn and crush you to nothing as it's retaining a lot of heat at 470c and 92 bar vs 1 bar on Earth.

It doesn't seem like technology will see us out like some have speculated in the past, who knows perhaps great solutions are around the corner to help sustain 8 billion and more each year. I can only see us learning the hardway.

 

[Buster15]

Looking into it further, the natural processes of the planet can only remove half what we produce each year so even if we stop now, to get to reasonable levels of say 250ppm-300ppm or 350ppm (year 1990 level) of CO2 and other greenhouses gases it would take around 100 hundred years possibly and perhaps longer for the gases much higher up. Of course there could be a point we can't naturally drop back as Bosnian fan pointed out, I'm just looking at a theoretical standpoint from now.

We're at the 410+ range and keep adding to it each year despite all the efforts so far over the decades and need to be on a downward trajectory yesterday.

It's incredible just how finely balanced the planet temperature is between 0.02-0.04 of CO2 in the atmosphere. Under 0.02 we're close to a frozen planet. Past 0.04 we're getting into uninhabitable heat.

It doesn't seem like technology will see us out like some have speculated in the past, who knows perhaps great solutions are around the corner to help sustain 8 billion and more each year. I can only see us learning the hardway.

Very interesting. And very worrying.
Edit.
Our planet may well be unique in our Milky Way galaxy. And humanity is trashing it. And what is worse. We know that we are doing that.

 

[NLunited]

Im wondering are there any resident Americans here on the caf who disagree with the points and data that the author makes in this article?

https://open.substack.com/pub/robertbryce/p/carbon-myopia?utm_campaign=post&utm_medium=web

Makes no sense whatsoever. The economy in US is the best it has been in 50 or more years and the deficit has been reduced by more than 1.7 trillion, basically undoing the damage from Trump’s tax cuts, which added 2 trillion to the deficit.

A further 3 trillion reduction is projected in the next decade.

The author is making the point we should not invest in green technologies because it will add to the deficit. That is not what is happening.

The article is a pseudo-intellectual misleading piece of nonsense.

 

[neverdie]

It doesn't seem like technology will see us out like some have speculated in the past, who knows perhaps great solutions are around the corner to help sustain 8 billion and more each year. I can only see us learning the hardway.

De-Desertification en masse (algae) and irrigation with induction dams. Leaving the existing carbon bases, creating a second lung, over the NA/AF/FC area. Other than that, Dodo. Exponential breaker. Stopping the fumes going up, even if we all stopped tomorrow, carbon, etc., isn't enough. It has to come back down, too. Cooling effects with exponential, non-carbon-direct, effects (glacial/caps, etc). Until that starts hitting the agenda, and it's a massive economic boom, too, the human race is done. If not in earnest began by 2030, it's caput.

 

[nimic]

Makes no sense whatsoever. The economy in US is the best it has been in 50 or more years and the deficit has been reduced by more than 1.7 trillion, basically undoing the damage from Trump’s tax cuts, which added 2 trillion to the deficit.

A further 3 trillion reduction is projected in the next decade.

The author is making the point we should not invest in green technologies because it will add to the deficit. That is not what is happening.

The article is a pseudo-intellectual misleading piece of nonsense.

I haven't heard of that guy so I took a look at his substack. Front and center is him saying he's on Jordan Peterson's podcast:

I’ve been following Jordan Peterson for a long time. I have long admired his courage and work ethic. Members of my family have been propelled forward in very positive ways by his messages about personal responsibility, focus, and hard work. Thus, it’s a real pleasure to let you know that I am on the Dr. Jordan B. Peterson Podcast today.

That doesn't mean he's wrong, of course, but it's a bit of a red flag.

 

[Jericholyte2]

I'm not sure people are aware that once we hit certain point there is no way back.

Than again, I'm not sure they'd care even if they were aware, or them caring could change things significantly. Without huge number of people seriously giving up on their lifestyles, cars, holidays, extra clothes etc, in very short time span, nothing is going to change, and even then it may not change a thing.

There have been extreme weather anomalies all over the world, and there will be more.

I may be perceived as an extreme pessimist, but I just don't see a way in which humans as a race won't be entering most serious crisis in our history, which may threathen to eradicate us. Or a huge percentage of us at least.

I right with you on this, I’m absolutely terrified about what I’ve brought my little daughter in to with the world as it is.

It’s literally on fire and people are performatively ignorant for money!

We, as a species, deserve the fate we’re pushing on ourselves - the other species that we destroy along the way don’t!

 

[Buster15]

I right with you on this, I’m absolutely terrified about what I’ve brought my little daughter in to with the world as it is.

It’s literally on fire and people are performatively ignorant for money!

We, as a species, deserve the fate we’re pushing on ourselves - the other species that we destroy along the way don’t!

Very well said. I have 5 young grandchildren and feel the same way.
As I have mentioned it is the incredible rate of change that is my real concern.
If we don't act in a completely transformational way, then their futures will be bleak. And we are not likely to do that fast enough.

 

[ThatsGreat]

Surprising we haven't been able to develop large scale tech to fix/sequester atmospheric carbon by now. Really thought we'd have something developed by the time climate change got real.

 

[berbatrick]

Going to be a major doomer...

So, with the barest of barebone commitments gone, what actually is US climate policy? I think it's this:



As conditions worsen, the barbarians need to be kept from the gates.

Fortress Europe actually has a head start on this, and is exporting the frontier down into Turkey/Northern Africa. The EU border kills 5000 a year. There are more being killed and raped in the external frontier.

 

[TwoSheds]

Surprising we haven't been able to develop large scale tech to fix/sequester atmospheric carbon by now. Really thought we'd have something developed by the time climate change got real.

It's really not. It uses lots of energy and resources and we produce unbelievable quantities of greenhouse gases every year so at the scale we need it was always going to be a red herring. Absolute number 1 goal should be a 100% renewable electricity grid with excess capacity - that way you have "free" energy to try stupid shit like carbon capture.

 

[berbatrick]

 

[berbatrick]

the blue check brigade has a hundred original observations about this! (replies here)

Wait. Aren't greenhouses good for growing plants? And, isn't CO2 an essential fertilizer for plant life?

Utter nonsense.

Wrong. A plant-based diet offers only a marginal contribution to greenhouse gas emissions decrease <link to blogspot>

Just for that, I'm going to eat twice as much brisket tonight!

But if everyone was vegan who would vegans tell to be vegan?

Was vegan/vegetarian for 15+ years... now strict carnivore. Will not be going back to veggies.

This is exactly why I feed my cows a plant-based diet.

3.5oz of meat is a vegetarian diet

All of those vegetables will be great with a pot roast

Remember, we are really the carbon they want to reduce.

Climate Cultist Media

I just had a tomahawk steak There was some asparagus though

You are the carbon they want to reduce.

They are also 100% more likely to be disgusting hippies.

LOL! “A vegan diet also results in significantly less harm to land, water and biodiversity…” …and significantly more harm to the person on the diet.

False, vegans fart more than cows!

 

[Buster15]

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/science-environment-66229065

Scientists alarmed by the pace of global temperature increases. Not just air temperatures but the rapid increase in seas as well. Warning that we are entering uncharted grounds.

 

[Oranges038]

I'm not sure people are aware that once we hit certain point there is no way back.

Than again, I'm not sure they'd care even if they were aware, or them caring could change things significantly. Without huge number of people seriously giving up on their lifestyles, cars, holidays, extra clothes etc, in very short time span, nothing is going to change, and even then it may not change a thing.

There have been extreme weather anomalies all over the world, and there will be more.

I may be perceived as an extreme pessimist, but I just don't see a way in which humans as a race won't be entering most serious crisis in our history, which may threathen to eradicate us. Or a huge percentage of us at least.

No fecking harm in that.

All this bs about saving the planet is nonsense, it's all about saving ourselves, not the planet. If all humans were wiped out tomorrow, the earth will have almost fully recovered and eradicated most of the damage done by humans in about a million years. Seems like a long time, but in the grand scheme of things it's nothing, there's about 5bn years left in the sun, humans have been around for no time at all compared to that.

The best thing that can happen for the earth is a mass extinction event that wipes out most if not all of the human race.

 

[Jericholyte2]

No fecking harm in that.

All this bs about saving the planet is nonsense, it's all about saving ourselves, not the planet. If all humans were wiped out tomorrow, the earth will have almost fully recovered and eradicated most of the damage done by humans in about a million years. Seems like a long time, but in the grand scheme of things it's nothing, there's about 5bn years left in the sun, humans have been around for no time at all compared to that.

The best thing that can happen for the earth is a mass extinction event that wipes out most if not all of the human race.

Except before that happens we’ll be seeing food and water shortages created unprecedented migration crises as people flee unviable countries. Wars will be waged over water supplies which will be in an ever shortening supply.

It won’t be a quick, end of days situation, it’ll be long, drawn-out and painful.

 

[Pexbo]

Except before that happens we’ll be seeing food and water shortages created unprecedented migration crises as people flee unviable countries. Wars will be waged over water supplies which will be in an ever shortening supply.

It won’t be a quick, end of days situation, it’ll be long, drawn-out and painful.

Agree, it’s the social and political unrest on a global scale that I fear most. Probably because living in England I naively think we will be further down the queue for direct exposure to the most extreme weather conditions so dying from drought or storms seems less likely than dying from some sort of unrest.

 

[Tarrou]

No fecking harm in that.

All this bs about saving the planet is nonsense, it's all about saving ourselves, not the planet. If all humans were wiped out tomorrow, the earth will have almost fully recovered and eradicated most of the damage done by humans in about a million years. Seems like a long time, but in the grand scheme of things it's nothing, there's about 5bn years left in the sun, humans have been around for no time at all compared to that.

The best thing that can happen for the earth is a mass extinction event that wipes out most if not all of the human race.

not to forget though we're destroying thousands of other species at the same time

estimated at around ~30,000 per year

admittedly, some would manage that without our help, but we're definitely a major cause in all that

 

[Oranges038]

Except before that happens we’ll be seeing food and water shortages created unprecedented migration crises as people flee unviable countries. Wars will be waged over water supplies which will be in an ever shortening supply.

It won’t be a quick, end of days situation, it’ll be long, drawn-out and painful.

It probably will be wars and vast amounts of death and suffering.

But, the earth has the same amount of water now as it's always had, it's where this water is held and located, some it is in ice, some of it under gorund, most of it is in the seas. The problem will be finding fresh clean potable water for people. That will be nigh on impossible. Not all pollution is caused by agriculture, sewage, industrial pollution and microplastics. There's loads more coming from your average home.

As an example. I watched a programme a while ago and there was guy testing the Thames for medical residues, anti depressants, birth control etc. All these things when people ingest them, go straight down the toilet and get flushed back into the water supply, these things are almost impossible to remove once they are present. The equivalent of thousands of tablets flow into the seas and rivers every day. Everything you put down the sink or shit out and flush down the toilet, comes back out of a tap somewhere else eventually.

It also finds it's way out to the sea, rivers and lakes, as a result there's vast amounts of marine life that are unable to reproduce non only because of micro plastics but also due to the amount of chemical residues in their bodies.

We really are fxuked as a species, how amd when it ends remains to be seen. But, there's not much chance of the earth being saved while humans are still the main destructive force.

not to forget though we're destroying thousands of other species at the same time

estimated at around ~30,000 per year

admittedly, some would manage that without our help, but we're definitely a major cause in all that

Some other life forms will rise up and take our place, I think it will be seagulls, they're getting bigger and bigger all the time, those bastards are plotting our downfall you can see it in their eyes.

 

[Dumbstar]

The best thing that can happen for the earth is a mass extinction event that wipes out most if not all of the human race.

Alright, calm down M Night Shyamalan.

 

[calodo2003]

 

[That'sHernandez]

It's already too late anyway, but feck me there's no wonder the state humanity is in with troglodytes like this in positions of power.

The planet will be fine during and after humanity has changed the climate, it's gone through this many times before.

 

[DickDastardly]

The best thing that can happen for the earth is a mass extinction event that wipes out most if not all of the human race.

We're getting there Rusty.

There's this chick scientist that says we're probably done for by 2050 or 60'.

Male reproductive system is fecked, we have about 50% less sperm then our grandad's and if things go with the linear flow, that's about it for us.

 

[Oranges038]

We're getting there Rusty.

There's this chick scientist that says we're probably done for by 2050 or 60'.

Male reproductive system is fecked, we have about 50% less sperm then our grandad's and if things go with the linear flow, that's about it for us.

Men now should freeze store up all their wanks to sell off in future to fund retirement, we're probably twice as fertile as what the kids in 30 years will be.

But, I'm sure they'll probably be able to lab grow babies, like they are doing with that "meat". That'll sort it all out.

 

[WPMUFC]

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/science-environment-66229065

Scientists alarmed by the pace of global temperature increases. Not just air temperatures but the rapid increase in seas as well. Warning that we are entering uncharted grounds.

This graph is incredible.

"People tend to think about trees and grasses dying when we talk about heatwaves. The Atlantic is 5C warmer than it should be - that means organisms need 50% more food just to function as normal," she says.

 

[Bert_]

God made trees, and we cut them feckers down. feck you and your creation god.

Think that's what he meant to say.

 

[WPMUFC]

Physical oceanographer Edward Doddridge has been communicating with scientists and the community about the drastic changes happening around Antarctica.

He said vast regions of the Antarctic coastline were ice free for the first time in the observational record.

"To say unprecedented isn't strong enough," Dr Doddridge said.

"For those of you who are interested in statistics, this is a five-sigma event. So it's five standard deviations beyond the mean. Which means that if nothing had changed, we'd expect to see a winter like this about once every 7.5 million years.

https://www.abc.net.au/news/2023-07-24/antarctic-sea-ice-levels-nosedive-five-sigma-event/102635204

This kind of stuff takes me back to all those book I read about the first weather system models being created and how small (like accidently putting 10.01 instead of 10.001) completed threw out the models causing simulated weather chaos on the planet, and that was when scientists realised "holy feck, tiny almost inconceivable changes fundamentally alter everything"

 

[Dr. StrangeHate]

We're getting there Rusty.

There's this chick scientist that says we're probably done for by 2050 or 60'.

Male reproductive system is fecked, we have about 50% less sperm then our grandad's and if things go with the linear flow, that's about it for us.

Username checks out.

 

[Real Name]

What to do when even simple folk, ordinary people dont believe in climate changes. We had a strongest storm ever witnessed here in Zagreb on Wednesday, trees torn down, houses and buildings damaged, cars destroyed, 4 people dead and yet you see people on the internet saying there's no climate change and its all media's agenda trying to frighten people and subdue them or whatever.

 

[Jericholyte2]

And what happens as the scale of these events widens (I’d argue they already are) so it’s not just holidaymakers needing to flee?

 

[nimic]

This graph is incredible.

Actually everything is perfectly fine, this line is going down!

We did it guys.

 

[Massive Spanner]

In all seriousness, at what point do we start feasting on each others brains?

 

[maximus419]

I just want to know when they are going to make it easier for those of us who don't wish to stick around and allow a peaceful suicide pill readily available at mass scale. Or is that too humane and they just want to prolong the suffering.

 

[Tarrou]

I just want to know when they are going to make it easier for those of us who don't wish to stick around and allow a peaceful suicide pill readily available at mass scale. Or is that too humane and they just want to prolong the suffering.

heroine OD will do the trick

just drift off into the clouds my friend

 

[WPMUFC]

I just want to know when they are going to make it easier for those of us who don't wish to stick around and allow a peaceful suicide pill readily available at mass scale. Or is that too humane and they just want to prolong the suffering.

Or.....you know.....use your life to make the best political and environmental decisions you can, engage your local community, and try to make the problem better for the next generations? Suicide in the name of climate catastrophe is cult level shit.

We are completely messing up the planet and probably making this form of civilisation unsustainable, but topping yourself just to end the "doom" felt now doesn't achieve anything.

 

[Eriku]

Or.....you know.....use your life to make the best political and environmental decisions you can, engage your local community, and try to make the problem better for the next generations? Suicide in the name of climate catastrophe is cult level shit.

We are completely messing up the planet and probably making this form of civilisation unsustainable, but topping yourself just to end the "doom" felt now doesn't achieve anything.

I don’t think he means NOW

…I hope

otherwise, I kind get it.

 

[neverdie]

I just want to know when they are going to make it easier for those of us who don't wish to stick around and allow a peaceful suicide pill readily available at mass scale. Or is that too humane and they just want to prolong the suffering.

It should be a seven day type pill. If on the sixth you're having regrets you can opt out, but basically high as feck for a few days. Enough from me on suicide, individual, back to suicide collective (economy and all that).

 

[neverdie]

God made trees, and we cut them feckers down. feck you and your creation god.

Think that's what he meant to say.

It's insane that the Americans, over 50 years, or 70, cut down as much forrest as was basically cut down in Europe over two thousand years if you think about it (much longer probably). Russian forest and the few African/South American (some Asian) are the lung of the world. We used to have lots of lungs, for an analogy, but we now have one (we need another and has to be via de-desertification imo or else we're all dead).

Canada, too, of course, thanks to its relatively small population and enormous landmass. (in terms of carbon capture and oxygen production).

 

[Stack]

It's insane that the Americans, over 50 years, or 70, cut down as much forrest as was basically cut down in Europe over two thousand years if you think about it (much longer probably). Russian forest and the few African/South American (some Asian) are the lung of the world. We used to have lots of lungs, for an analogy, but we now have one (we need another and has to be via de-desertification imo or else we're all dead).

Canada, too, of course, thanks to its relatively small population and enormous landmass. (in terms of carbon capture and oxygen production).

The Americans arent the only ones of course. Here in NZ we have 0.01% of our original Kauri trees left, we started cutting them down in the late 1800s.

 

[neverdie]

The Americans arent the only ones of course. Here in NZ we have 0.01% of our original Kauri trees left, we started cutting them down in the late 1800s.

Well, it's what that movement, colonization, to be frnak, did to Papua New Guinea and so on (and other Asian areas) which is more irritating to me. But all of this amounts to chopping down the means of human survival for economy and then wondering why we're all dying. It's fecking insane.