It is not near as crazy as you are making it. Statistically, the team that shoots first wins 60.4% of time (sample is over 1300 penalty shootouts). So a very big advantage (mostly, cause the second team is under more pressure).So he chooses first and we lose.
There's a thread for 'choosing to go first in the shootout'
Jesus Christ
Choosing to go 2nd for the shootout
- Thread starter Bastian
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Pogue Mahone
Swiftie Fan Club President
It is not near as crazy as you are making it. Statistically, the team that shoots first wins 60.4% of time (sample is over 1300 penalty shootouts). So a very big advantage (mostly, cause the second team is under more pressure).
Presumably there’s no stats for choosing to go second, when penalties are held in front of the opposition fans, because we’re the only team dumb enough to provide a data point.
True. That makes it even dumber.Presumably there’s no stats for choosing to go second, when penalties are held in front of the opposition fans, because we’re the only team dumb enough to provide a data point.
We do not know how they would have been shooting when they would be chasing the game. Sure, we could have still lost, after all, a 60% chance of winning also means a 40% chance of losing (excluding other factors and basing everything on who shoots first), but when you can increase the chances to win, why not do so.I mean yeah it's idiotic, but this wasn't the reason we lost, was it ? We put in 10 pens and the one who missed was the GK.
The problem was a)We should have won in the main time. and B)De Gea is shit in pens.
De Gea should have also been subbed, no question there. He is awful at pens, and Henderson is actually pretty good at it.
Things like this makes me believe that our coaching staff is really not living in the modern era. Having clean data from which you can get clear conclusions, and refusing to use them is beyond dumb.
The Oracle
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I mean yeah it's idiotic, but this wasn't the reason we lost, was it ? We put in 10 pens and the one who missed was the GK.
The problem was a)We should have won in the main time. and B)De Gea is shit in pens.
You're not the only poster who is completely missing the point about choosing to go second in a penalty shootout...
- when you are the team who takes the first penalty, and score it, the pressure is automatically put onto the team taking the second penalty
- that meant from the 5th penalty onwards, if Utd missed then the game ended there and then
- the opposite is true of Villareal.... not a single one of their penalties was a match ending penalty - because if they did miss, the game wasn't over there and then because Utd would still have to take their penalty
BeforeKeanetherewasRobson
Full Member
Maybe, maybe not but you always go first. Score and pressure on them, especially once you get to the 4th/5th penalty ... miss and there's still some pressure as they know it's a penalty to win.I mean yeah it's idiotic, but this wasn't the reason we lost, was it ? We put in 10 pens and the one who missed was the GK.
The problem was a)We should have won in the main time. and B)De Gea is shit in pens.
It's told to players from schoolboy level (it was for me).
Maybe, maybe not but you always go first. Score and pressure on them, especially once you get to the 4th/5th penalty ... miss and there's still some pressure as they know it's a penalty to win.
It's told to players from schoolboy level (it was for me).
You're not the only poster who is completely missing the point about choosing to go second in a penalty shootout...
- when you are the team who takes the first penalty, and score it, the pressure is automatically put onto the team taking the second penalty
- that meant from the 5th penalty onwards, if Utd missed then the game ended there and then
- the opposite is true of Villareal.... not a single one of their penalties was a match ending penalty - because if they did miss, the game wasn't over there and then because Utd would still have to take their penalty
I got your points and agreed it was idiotic from us.
I'm just saying ultimately it wasn't the reason we lost the shootout.
sullydnl
Ross Kemp's caf ID
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I mean yeah it's idiotic, but this wasn't the reason we lost, was it ? We put in 10 pens and the one who missed was the GK.
The problem was a)We should have won in the main time. and B)De Gea is shit in pens.
Surely the point is that it could indeed have been the difference between us winning and losing?
I mean we're not talking about a slight statistical edge here, 60/40 is pretty damn big advantage to hand over. If we flip that in our favour then maybe they miss one of their 11 penalties.
Surely the point is that it could indeed have been the difference between us winning and losing?
I mean we're not talking about a slight statistical edge here, 60/40 is pretty damn big advantage to hand over. If we flip that in our favour then maybe they miss one of their 11 penalties.
Considering that they seemed to want the game to reach the pens and this was their whole plan. I think they were preparing for the possibility of going second as well.
Bulldog United
New Member
We did but might have been nice to see how they would have handled it
Yep it’s natural to wonder. I’ve tried to convince myself they showed no signs of nerves so it would have made no difference, but I definitely wouldn’t mind having a second chance going first. It was a strange decision.
Maticmaker
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Yep it’s natural to wonder. I’ve tried to convince myself they showed no signs of nerves so it would have made no difference, but I definitely wouldn’t mind having a second chance going first. It was a strange decision.
Yes, it was strange. Bruno's body language at that toss up seem to suggest he was almost 'disbelieving' they were at that stage, he seemed to be constantly trying to hold a discussion with the ref, whilst the toss up was taking place; he was perhaps thinking "we've played 120 mins we cannot now be facing penalties, what is happening?....er what yes Ref, whats that, Oh we've loss first toss, yes Ok, but we shouldn't be here its unbelievable...whats that Ref we've won something, whats that... are we going 1st or second, er.... yes ok...er... lets go second!
In that few seconds perhaps all hope was gone, but no then we banged in 10 pens on the trot....now that was unbelievable!
Bullhitter
New Member
That was astounding. They must have discussed this at some point before the game?!
The only logical conclusion is it wasn't discussed, which is crazy and a pretty significant managerial oversight.
Withnail
Full Member
The only logical conclusion is it wasn't discussed, which is crazy and a pretty significant managerial oversight.
Or as per below it's possibly such common knowledge from schoolboy level up that nobody thinks it's needs discussion
Maybe, maybe not but you always go first. Score and pressure on them, especially once you get to the 4th/5th penalty ... miss and there's still some pressure as they know it's a penalty to win.
It's told to players from schoolboy level (it was for me).
On another note, apparently De Gea had notes from the coaches about each taker and one of the few times he deviated from the instructions was for the penalty that was down the middle. If he hadn't have dived there would have been pressure on that taker to change his plan and try and hit the corner or it would have been an easy save down the middle.
Fine margins obviously but poor decision making all round from United. Let's hope they use the pain of losing as motivation for next season and take the lessons onboard.
Bullhitter
New Member
Or as per below it's possibly such common knowledge from schoolboy level up that nobody thinks it's needs discussion
Chances shouldn't be taken even if it's just a cursory 5 seconds conversation. No excuse for it. A 20% swing in probability of winning.
DFreshKing
Full Member
I don't understand how people think it made no difference because we scored 10. They scored 11! maybe if DeGea goes first he doesn't bottle it because he's not just seen the oppo keeper rifle it into the top corner. One of many small details that increased the odds we lost.
Withnail
Full Member
Chances shouldn't be taken even if it's just a cursory 5 seconds conversation. No excuse for it. A 20% swing in probability of winning.
What I mean is if it's such a given in the game and nobody ever chooses second then it may not be discussed at any club.
You don't tell players which way round to wear their shorts.
Bullhitter
New Member
What I mean is if it's such a given in the game and nobody ever chooses second then it may not be discussed at any club.
You don't tell players which way round to wear their shorts.
But they put on shorts multiple times a day, not only in cup finals and whether they put them on the right way or not doesn't result in a 20% swing of your chances of winning a European trophy.
It's a lack of attention to detail and not all that surprising in this instance to be brutally honest. Solskjaer looks like he's clicking buttons a lot of the time. Overly passive.
snk123
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I don't understand how people think it made no difference because we scored 10. They scored 11! maybe if DeGea goes first he doesn't bottle it because he's not just seen the oppo keeper rifle it into the top corner. One of many small details that increased the odds we lost.
Some people here are really not that bright. It's common sense that going second in a do or die situation would put immense pressure. It's why your console controllers vibrate in FIFA because if you miss, you're out.
Having said that, it's astonishing that the manager, the coaching staff and players were dumb as feck as well.
BeforeKeanetherewasRobson
Full Member
Apparently left to captain (Bruno).Chances shouldn't be taken even if it's just a cursory 5 seconds conversation. No excuse for it. A 20% swing in probability of winning.
And yes, DDG was given a list @Withnail .. you can Google it and see. Passed to him to keep in towel.. obviously decided to go with his gut in the moment.
Down to players that.
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