Choosing to go 2nd for the shootout

While I don’t think it was necessarily relevant to the way this match played out, given our outfield players were literally perfect with their penalties and De Gea never looked even close to saving one of theirs, it’s well-established that you should never willingly choose to go 2nd. But who’s to say they would have been equally perfect with their penalties with the added pressure of having to score to stay in the tie?

It‘s a decision that defies basic logic and I don’t know why it was even a choice for Bruno to make; if we have the option of going 1st we should go 1st every single time because it’s statistically advantageous.

It’s comparable to choosing to be the black pieces in chess in a one off match.
 
Absolutely bonkers. Like in Tennis Tie-Breakers the person serving first statistically is more likely to win, the first person/team to get a point more often than not goes onto win.

And then we have to take the penalties at their end on top of the pressure of always catching up. Jesus christ our team is thick.

Those saying it doesn't make a difference are simply wrong. It has been proven it is an advantage to go first.
 
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Sky1981 said:
Not an issue

you can make a case he wants the pressure to be on the number 1 penalty taker.

In the grand scheme of things 1st or 2nd is a non issue
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It is not an issue if you dont know. But once you know that the team shooting first has a 60% chance of winning, and the other 40%, you go first if you have an option, every single time. Small things decide games. Just like this shootout was decided by small margins (De Gea's miss).

It is like somebody saying to you behind door A you win 1m with 60% and door B with 40%. You go A every time, just because you have higher probability.
 
izec said:
It is not an issue if you dont know. But once you know that the team shooting first has a 60% chance of winning, and the other 40%, you go first if you have an option, every single time. Small things decide games. Just like this shootout was decided by small margins (De Gea's miss).

It is like somebody saying to you behind door A you win 1m with 60% and door B with 40%. You go A every time, just because you have higher probability.
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As fans it’s hard to understand exactly what sort of attention to detail goes into our preparation for games. If you see something like this go so obviously wrong, when a simple two minute chat from Ole could have avoided it, it does seem like a canary in a coal mine about the bigger picture.

I’ve previously had a rant about our shitty throw ins and how Klopp noticed this at Liverpool, hired a specialist coach, then massively improved their outcomes from throw-ins. That’s the sort of rigorous sweating the small stuff that brings trophies.

Hard not to wonder if we have even a tiny of chance of matching their success when we’re failing to think about such an important detail before the biggest game of Ole’s United managerial career so far.
 
Pogue Mahone said:
As fans it’s hard to understand exactly what sort of attention to detail goes into our preparation for games. If you see something like this go so obviously wrong, when a simple two minute chat from Ole could have avoided it, it does seem like a canary in a coal mine about the bigger picture.

I’ve previously had a rant about our shitty throw ins and how Klopp noticed this at Liverpool, hired a specialist coach, then massively improved their outcomes from throw-ins. That’s the sort of rigorous sweating the small stuff that brings trophies.

Hard not to wonder if we have even a tiny of chance of matching their success when we’re failing to think about such an important detail before the biggest game of Ole’s United managerial career so far.
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Totally agree. The topic of going first in a shootout is well documented and is (should be!) common knowledge among everyone with an interest in football - let alone pros and coaches. I’d be very interested to hear someone ask about what went on.
 
I was confused how we could be shooting second and into the end with their fans. It's not a scenario you see often because most players have more sense.
 
SirAF said:
Totally agree. The topic of going first in a shootout is well documented and is (should!) be common knowledge among everyone with an interest in football - let alone pros and coaches. I’d be very interested to hear someone ask about what went on.
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Also reminds me of the fiasco when we didn’t seem to have a dedicated penalty taker and Rashford and Pogba went through a phase of making a balls of almost every penalty we won. Again, those details are important and need to be thought about, planned for and discussed in advance. Or you will pay the cost.
 
Not sure it made much odds as we got 11 pens in then not unreasonably our keeper missed.

The odder thing was the ref allowing the keepers to come and mess with the ball in between pens. Not that it worked.
 
Pogue Mahone said:
I wonder if this is such common knowledge among players/managers that Ole just assumed he didn’t need to remind Bruno in advance?
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It’s totally unfair expecting players to know that given that many players don’t even experience penalty shootouts throughout their careers or are very rarely involved. Footballers also not known to be the brightest bunch in general. It’s totally on coaching staff to pass these instructions there are no two way about it.
 
Absolutely diabolical decision. Either he's a few pence short of a pound or he bottled it.
 
Sandikan said:
Not sure it made much odds as we got 11 pens in then not unreasonably our keeper missed.

The odder thing was the ref allowing the keepers to come and mess with the ball in between pens. Not that it worked.
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That is definitely true on the night, 11 pens going in is pretty much unprecedented. That said, I think @Pogue Mahone alludes to details like these going wrong is symptomatic of how things are being run.
 
GMoore23 said:
Absolutely diabolical decision. Either he's a few pence short of a pound or he bottled it.
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He certainly didn’t bottle it as he wasn’t going to shoot first anyway, he probably didn’t know it and it wasn’t obvious to him. This is something that he or vice capitan (in case of injury) should have been briefed on before the game by our coaching staff and failed to do so.
 
Whether it had an effect on the outcome in this particular instance or not, it's the sort of thing you cannot get wrong and still think of yourself as an elite sports team in fecking 2021. It's something so miniscule to get right ("hey Bruno, remember to pick to take 1st!") with such a large impact. I don't think there's anything else in a close match that is statistically as advantageous as being able to go 1st in a shootout.
 
What made the decision even more baffling is that it allowed them to choose which end of the pitch to do them at. Which was obviously going to be with their fans.

But, as I've said in other thread(s), our decision making top-to-bottom killed us last night. This was just one of many strange reasonings on display from a club that has a serious mentality issue when it comes to it.
 
big rons sovereign said:
So he chooses first and we lose.
There's a thread for 'choosing to go first in the shootout'

Jesus Christ :wenger:
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No one could do that on any reasonable grounds because there isn't statistical evidence that show's going second to be an advantage.

It isn't a big deal at all but it is something and really we should have opted to go first if given the opportunity. Marginal gains and all that.
 
Maticmaker said:
Appreciate going first had some advantage, but did it really matter?

Once the 90 minutes were up Villarreal knew they could now win, it was reflected in their faces and the way they set about the extra time ;they had taken the 2nd team in the EPL to this point and were still standing with four or five fresh pair of legs to see them through.

In the grand scheme of things Bruno's mistake in choosing to go second was minor, by that time I suspect most United players had in their heads already lost and their body language confirmed it... " once more into the breech" was never on.
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Yeah they really crumbled when they scored 10 penalties in a row in front of the opposition fans.
 
This is Laurie Whitwell’s recount of the shoot out in The Athletic.

‘But after winning the toss, Fernandes elected for United to go second. Referee Clement Turpin even asked Fernandes again over his choice, in apparent surprise at the selection. The only explanations can be that United were unaware of the statistic or Fernandes went rogue. Solskjaer indicated the former.

“I’ve not asked Bruno who won the toss, I let him get on with it,” said Solskjaer. “The penalty takers were confident. I made some changes to get them on. It just couldn’t go for us.”

In a match of such consequence, with penalties highly plausible due to Villarreal’s style, neglecting such information feels a significant failure.’

It’s a bad look when the ref is more switched on to a crucial aspect of a final than your captain or manager.
 
I think Bruno may either not have known it or had previous good experiences with being second as most footballers are very superstitious, so he chose it again.

Either way, it is not a good look on us.
 
izec said:
I think Bruno may either not have known it or had previous good experiences with being second as most footballers are very superstitious, so he chose it again.

Either way, it is not a good look on us.
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It shouldn’t have been Bruno’s decision to make. It’s a rare part of a football match where micromanagement should come into play and the whims of an exhausted and emotional footballer are ignored.
 
If Ole was unaware Bruno was going to pick going second then I imagine the entire team wouldn't have known either which is a bit shitty of him. Statistically you're more likely to miss if you're shooting to stay in the match than to go ahead, the pressure would have been different for them and De Gea.
 
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Some will say that it didn't matter as all our outfielders converted theirs, but Villareal's players might have missed one if they were going second. It is a lot more difficult to smash every penalty into the corner when missing instantly loses the game.

Not sure why they still use two tosses for Penalty shootouts though, should be one. Winner gets to choose to go first, second or choose an end, and the looser gets to choose the other one.
 
AgentSmith said:
This is Laurie Whitwell’s recount of the shoot out in The Athletic.

‘But after winning the toss, Fernandes elected for United to go second. Referee Clement Turpin even asked Fernandes again over his choice, in apparent surprise at the selection. The only explanations can be that United were unaware of the statistic or Fernandes went rogue. Solskjaer indicated the former.

“I’ve not asked Bruno who won the toss, I let him get on with it,” said Solskjaer. “The penalty takers were confident. I made some changes to get them on. It just couldn’t go for us.”

In a match of such consequence, with penalties highly plausible due to Villarreal’s style, neglecting such information feels a significant failure.’

It’s a bad look when the ref is more switched on to a crucial aspect of a final than your captain or manager.
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This is just staggering. I'm furious at both the manager and the fecking captain. Why am I more concerned about the details of winning a final than they are? How am I noticing all this minor shit in real time and the leaders of our club gloss over it all. I'd love to see what changes a Dave Brailsford type figure would make to us. We are not good enough to gloss over this shit.
 
AgentSmith said:
This is Laurie Whitwell’s recount of the shoot out in The Athletic.

‘But after winning the toss, Fernandes elected for United to go second. Referee Clement Turpin even asked Fernandes again over his choice, in apparent surprise at the selection. The only explanations can be that United were unaware of the statistic or Fernandes went rogue. Solskjaer indicated the former.

“I’ve not asked Bruno who won the toss, I let him get on with it,” said Solskjaer. “The penalty takers were confident. I made some changes to get them on. It just couldn’t go for us.”

In a match of such consequence, with penalties highly plausible due to Villarreal’s style, neglecting such information feels a significant failure.’

It’s a bad look when the ref is more switched on to a crucial aspect of a final than your captain or manager.
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Yeah I seen that the ref asked him twice and the other captain seemed a little surprised as Bruno smiled back at him.
 
It main have not been the decisive factor yesterday, but its an amateur mistake. Its an automatic call, you win the toss you choose to kick first its football 101 and there are plenty statistics to back that up.
 
big rons sovereign said:
Of course there bloody would be.
There's a whiny thread for everything that can be used to beat anybody with.
It's ridiculous.

What's next, why did ole wear that tie?
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There must be something in it. 60% of winners go first in the penalty shootout. You have a 20% greater chance of winning by going first.
 
AgentSmith said:
This is Laurie Whitwell’s recount of the shoot out in The Athletic.

‘But after winning the toss, Fernandes elected for United to go second. Referee Clement Turpin even asked Fernandes again over his choice, in apparent surprise at the selection. The only explanations can be that United were unaware of the statistic or Fernandes went rogue. Solskjaer indicated the former.

“I’ve not asked Bruno who won the toss, I let him get on with it,” said Solskjaer. “The penalty takers were confident. I made some changes to get them on. It just couldn’t go for us.”

In a match of such consequence, with penalties highly plausible due to Villarreal’s style, neglecting such information feels a significant failure.’

It’s a bad look when the ref is more switched on to a crucial aspect of a final than your captain or manager.
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fecks sake. The commentary team( David pleat and someone) said we lost both the tosses. But I guess even they were in disbelief we would win it but go second.
 
We won the coin toss.

The ref asked Bruno in broken English - ''do you want pen 1 or pen 2?.''

Apparently, Bruno thought he was being offered 2 penalties, so he said pen 2.

Penandes, oh dear.

:(
 
I couldn't believe it when I saw it. Thought I must have misread the situation and maybe he didn't win the toss.
 
Pogue Mahone said:
As fans it’s hard to understand exactly what sort of attention to detail goes into our preparation for games. If you see something like this go so obviously wrong, when a simple two minute chat from Ole could have avoided it, it does seem like a canary in a coal mine about the bigger picture.

I’ve previously had a rant about our shitty throw ins and how Klopp noticed this at Liverpool, hired a specialist coach, then massively improved their outcomes from throw-ins. That’s the sort of rigorous sweating the small stuff that brings trophies.

Hard not to wonder if we have even a tiny of chance of matching their success when we’re failing to think about such an important detail before the biggest game of Ole’s United managerial career so far.
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I really don’t know what went wrong with Ole yesterday. We have seen in some big or important games in the past that he prepares the team well. At least in terms of how the opposition plays and how to counter it.
But for yesterday he didn’t even bother talking to the team / Bruno about it?
I mean who would have thought that a final involving a deep defending underdog could lead to a penalty shootout? Not Ole it seems.
The league for us was over ages ago so we had all the time to prepare and then we act like amateurs in crucial moments.
Seems like the more time we have to prepare, the less prepared we actually look.
 
IrishRedDevil said:
We won the coin toss.

The ref asked Bruno in broken English - ''do you want pen 1 or pen 2?.''

Apparently, Bruno thought he was being offered 2 penalties, so he said pen 2.

Penandes, oh dear.

:(
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If there was a language barrier problem then it would at least make sense why we didn't go first. Not that it makes it much better, but at least it would be an honest mistake and not a stupid decision.
 
Deery said:
Yeah I seen that the ref asked him twice and the other captain seemed a little surprised as Bruno smiled back at him.
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Bruno’s on record as saying he prefers taking a penalty in front of a full stadium rather than an empty one; the man thrives off the magnitude of the moment.

So it doesn’t surprise me his instinct is to go the way that invites the most pressure and, to be fair to the rest of the team, they all lived up to it as well.

The error was choosing to avoid subjecting the Villarreal players to that same type of pressure and that lies solely with Ole for me.
 
stevoc said:
Yeah they really crumbled when they scored 10 penalties in a row in front of the opposition fans.
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I was referring to the end of the 90 mins and beginning of extra time situation, prior to Bruno making his choice.

At that point we looked beaten and our body language said the same, some revival must have occurred because the fact we did score 10 penalties was a minor miracle, especially as you say in front of opposition fans. That was one positive to take from the whole evening.
 
MU655 said:
There must be something in it. 60% of winners go first in the penalty shootout. You have a 20% greater chance of winning by going first.
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21 penalties were taken, 20 were scored.
The only thing to question in that shootout are De Gea's balls.
Or lack of.
 
big rons sovereign said:
21 penalties were taken, 20 were scored.
The only thing to question in that shootout are De Gea's balls.
Or lack of.
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It just means that our players dealt well with it, but we should have put that pressure on the Villareal players... See how they handled it.
 
big rons sovereign said:
I doubt it would've made much difference. I mean even their keeper nailed his pen top bins.
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Probably not, but who knows... That 5% extra pressure of knowing that if you miss, you're out... Could make the difference.

Ultimately penalties are just a metal exercise.... Without any pressure a professional footballer will score a penalty 99/100. Its the mental aspect /pressure that makes them miss.

Even facing someone like De Gea with his poor penalty record probably put less pressure on them then it would a different keeper who is getting closer to the ball.
 
Wow, I didn't know we chose to go 2nd. You gotta wonder what level of prep we do when we pull off shit like this
 
Pogue Mahone said:
I wonder if this is such common knowledge among players/managers that Ole just assumed he didn’t need to remind Bruno in advance?
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It has to be. I'm sure randoms who don't follow football intuitively understand.
 
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