So the Hummels deal seems to be as good as through. It was announced on the official BVB-twitter and only the medical check is left. The pricing seems to be around 28-30 million + another 8-10 million in bonuses (all numbers in €). Unlike Kagawa or Sahin, he isn't a "failed" player as he performed quite well in those 3 years - bar the first half of the ended season.
The fee seems fair for a top defender at 30 and the current market.
That being said, with this transfer we have 5 CBs. Hummels, Akanji, Diallo, Zagadou, Balerdi. I don't count Toprak nor Weigl here. The first will definitely leave and the second isn't really a CB (and also is likely to leave). That means, we either plan to play with a 3-man defense line, Diallo/Akanji has a fairly big offer to them or there is the small chance that Balerdi gets loaned.
Either way, with this the expenses for Brandt, Schulz, medium Hazard, Hummels, Alcacer and Balerdi are about 142 million (-60 million for Pullisic) and we are clearly not done yet as there are still rumours for a striker/central midfielder/left-CB and/or right wing.
While that is in line with Watzke saying we are eventually starting to attack from now on, this is quite the sum and essentially leaves 4 option:
1. A player with a higher transfer-fee will leave. Sancho is unlikely I think. But Akanji / Diallo are definitely options.
2. We plan to take a medium-sized loan this season. About 30-40 million should be doable for us and remains a moderate risk with the player-material and revenue we have.
3. Since we are stock-listed, there will be an increase of capital stock.
4. We will have a fairly drastic increase in sponsorship. I think the jersey one wasn't improve just yet, but we are at only 10 million a year and estimations are that a new contract would mean 30 million. Also there are some other rumours for new sponsorships.
So to the 142 million of expenses, there are the following players who will go and many of them do have reasonable rumours (fee-estimations are by newspapers):
- Shinji Kagawa. No specific clubs named, but media talks about multiple ones being interested. Estimated Fee would be around 3-4 million.
- Maximilian Philipp. Rumours talk about Wolfsburg for 15-20 million.
- Sebastian Rode. Rumours are clear about Frankfurt. His knee-surgery went better than expected. Estimation is around 4-5 million.
- Raphael Guerreiro is rumoured to go to Barcelona for around 20-25 million.
- Ömer Toprak is apparently talking to one or two unnamed turkish clubs. Estimated fee is around 3-5 million.
- Schürrle apparently has some interests from Russia for around 8-12 million.
- Isak is already gone for 7 million.
- Pullisic is gone already for 60 million
Other candidates without or with old rumours are:
- Toljan -> 2-3 million
- Passlack -> 1 million
- Dahoud -> Anyhwere from 10-20 million depending on his performance at U21. If he leaves, we definitely will need another player for the 8. My wishful thinking still points towards Gündogan.
- Weigl -> The rumours about PSG are about 2 months old. He has stated he wants to go throughout the last season. 20-25 million are likely the fee, if PSG remains interested. Maybe a bit less for more sane clubs.
All in all:
- 67 million are already set for Isak and Pullisic
- 53-71 million for the recent rumours
- 33-49 million for the candidates that have no active rumours.
The whole sum would be: 153 - 187 million. That is of course, if we will be able to clear out our squad and not remain stuck on some players.
All in all it really depends on what our future system is supposed to be. And how players are planned. For example: Is Hazard meant to play a winger or similar to how he is sometimes playing for Belgium as a line-player who goes up and down the sideline of the pitch.
Depending on that we still need a proper central midfielder who can connect the defense to the offense (Gündogan would be the dream), a proper back-up for Sancho as Wolf seems to be planned as a more defensive option either becoming a WB or a line-player and a potential legit back-up for the 9. And if Hazard is supposed to be in a more offensive role, then a back-up for Schulz is also necessary.
Those are also the positions media has rumours about. Either way - these players will not be refinanced by fees of the known players being sold. That budget has been eaten up by the current purchases already.
Personally I think the right-wing back-up position for Sancho definitely is important. And I would like to see a player there who can definitely play instead of Sancho against some of the weaker Bundesliga sides with some potential to soften the blow, if (unfortunately likely) Sancho is going to leave after the EC 2020 (I like the Ferran Torres rumour here). Also a central midfielder seems quite important. I don't think Dahoud has a future anymore and I don't want to have Brandt/Götze wasted on the offensive part of the double-6. A Striker and Left-Wingback back-up are more nice-to-haves.
It's remaining interesting. After the ongoing cups and with the official opening of the transfer window, things most likely going take an increased pace.
Edit: Obviously that is all quite simplified, because there are other aspects to the cost of transfers such as fees for the agents, potential taxes, etc.