Greenwood charges were dropped even before Mendys no? Didn’t even go to court.
Benjamin Mendy - Not guilty on re-trial | NOT a thread about MG
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On the other hand, only 1.3% of reported rapes end with a suspect being charged. So is a 75% conviction rate really something to brag about when 98.7% of cases don't even result in a charge?
Probabilities do not work that way, I am afraid. Once you condition, in something, the universe of events completely changes. It is a basic concept taught in any probability entry course (conditional probability).
Case in point, once you condition in the event that it actually went to the court, the universe is the cases where it goes to court, not all cases. And in those cases, the chances of being found guilty are depending on the year, somewhere 50-75%, almost increasing every year. So in this case alone, Mendy had less than 1/3 chance of being found ‘non guilty’. While you never know, the odds were against him and I think it is unfair to say for this case that well ‘chances of being found guilty were extremely low anyway cause most reported rapes do not lead to guilty’ when that is totally irrelevant when you condition in ‘going to a criminal court’.
Yup I thought discussion on mg was allowed again, could be wrong.
That's not how it works. Each case is judged on its own merits, the overall conviction rate for a given crime has no bearing on the outcome of a given case.
I know that, and rightfully it is that way.
My point was just probability-wise (frequenting) the chances of getting found guilty if you are in a criminal case are 75%, not 1% of whatever people say.
From what I've heard, the Greenwood discussion led to Niall (the forum owner) getting cease and desist letters from lawyers threatening to sue for libel. Hence the resulting heavy-handed approach.
Halftrack is referencing the probability of the crime of rape ending in a prosecution in the UK. This involves at a minimum:
- How many instances are reported
- How many reports lead to charges
- How many charges lead to prosecution
You are talking about the probability of Mendy being prosecuted in this particular case and are solely using the mean average of rape charges that lead to conviction to calculate this.
Leaving aside the gigantic oversimplification present in your argument, even if it were accurate, it would be accurate about something Halftrack isn’t discussing.
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Based on some of these posts and public opinion it is best for athletes to just keep it in their pants and resist the temptation of being a hoe. It may be easier to pull females with all that clout but in the end, nothing good comes of whoring. Lads, do better. The days of sleeping around and being a "football lad" has to end sometime. No more Wilt Chamberlain's
What Report, please point me to It...
Didn't the US or some countries develop a "Lie detecting" sort of machine? Could they be mass-produced to use in court?
I take offense to the bolded part. I am not twisting anything. I explicitly said I'm not debating if Greenwood is guilty or not. I'm not going to partake in this discussion unless you come without prejudice.
Yeah and you're free to think he's innocent If you can find a reasonable explaination for the audio. But not everyone should presume he's innocent like you first claimed.
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Excellent post, 100% this. Many people are still insisting their point of view and persecute MG based on their limited information on the case.
But no one has done that in this thread. Most of the "not guilty isn't innocent" comments are unprompted. And (on social media and elsewhere), that comment is a preface for "feck Mendy and anyone who rides with him".
Again if you're using the comment from a completely neutral position then my post didn't apply to you. If you aren't, it's ok to state how you feel.
It tells me that a key witness dropped out and new evidence came to light.
It's widely assumed that the key witness was ******* and the new evidence was that they were back together and expecting a child.
Besides, we've all heard the tape. It's not like that suddenly didn't happen just because the charges were dropped.
So assumptions aside, you don't know who the witness is, what the new evidence is, any additional comtext CPS had.
Either way MG case is a different case to this.
Why do some people double down when new evidence comes to light? Instead of reassessing?
So many posters do that! 80% of the friction on here is due to stubborn motherfeckers digging in...
So many posters do that! 80% of the friction on here is due to stubborn motherfeckers digging in...
What new evidence? I'm not saying there isn't any.
You are 100% right. We should get rid of courts, judges and juries and let social media decide on someones guilts based on the majority of them having zero experience or qualifications in the matter and access to 1% of the evidence. It is the right way to go.
This "new evidence" is almost certainly the survivor giving a withdrawal statement detailing that they do not want to support a prosecution or attend Court. That is often sufficient to derail a Domestic Abuse prosecution and undermine any Realistic Prospect of Conviction.
Given the typical exploitative nature of an abusive relationship, a survivor giving a withdrawal statement is not some "new evidence" that proves some miscarriage of justice or justifies people running around trying to justify their support of someone who is likely a rapist just because they were above average at kicking a piece of inflated leather.
The use of the word 'scaremonger' here is a bit tone-deaf in the year 2023. Eleanor Williams was convicted, this year, for doing the exact thing you dismiss as 'scaremongering' here.
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Yeah its quite obvious certain people have made their minds up hence the whole "not guilty doesn't necessarily mean innocent" charade.
The guy is innocent, if anything from the evidence in the Guardian article you can make the case that he was the victim. He lives a wild life as many people do and if that's his thing then more power to him. This isn't about the MG case, this isn't about other rape cases, its about this case and the facts from this case which say he's not guilty of any crimes. Just because in this case he was exonerated it doesn't take away from real cases of rape.
With all due respect (totally agree with the description by the way), we do not know what the new evidence is and who withdrew.
or just get consent filmed which I reckon a lot of them do
We don't know, but there is some on both cases. And where it was enough in both cases to contribute to the not guilty personally that would lead to uncertainty for me, not doubling down...
Case in point, didn't understand the post they are responding to, will not even entertain the fact that he's innocent and beat several charges, doubles down, talks in absolutes, makes assumptions about those who disagree, and then fires off a shot at them to sign off......... and gets a little like for it.
Listen, I don't like, and never will like, Redcafe and the wider internet's rush to condemn and inability to reflect....
Also I'm not going to get into a back and forth over this as it's pointless, hence my post.
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But then you are assuming/guessing at what the new evidence is likely to be based on your preconceived notion about mg’s guilt. We actually don’t know what the new evidence was and hence it is dangerous to assume anything. It may well have been a new witness who came forward stating that the whole thing was staged. As long as we are assuming we can assume anything. Now i am not stating that this was the case here but we cannot just assume anything here.
I wish the case would have gone to trial and then we could have heard both sides of the story. But alas we never will hear it.
100% agree. People seem to not realise that footballers/celebs are not "normal" people and can be targets for this sort of thing. Having so much can make you an easy target for exploitation. Not necessarily saying that's the case here, but there was not enough evidence to convict him of anything, meaning he is innocent. I hope Mendy can recover from this in his personal life. Hard to see him coming back as a footballer but who knows.
Why? He's only 28 and is available on a free transfer. He'll get a ton of offers.
This isn't really all that complicated.
According to various studies, false rape accusations are rare (2-10%). The number is small enough that, when you know nothing about the particulars of a case, you can't assume an accusation is false from the get-go. But the number is large enough that you can't dismiss the possibility of a false accusation, either. There is enough volume of accusations in the media and justice system that you are likely to hear about some false ones. So you assume the stories are true, and if/when evidence suggests they might not be, you take that seriously too.
According to various studies, false rape accusations are rare (2-10%). The number is small enough that, when you know nothing about the particulars of a case, you can't assume an accusation is false from the get-go. But the number is large enough that you can't dismiss the possibility of a false accusation, either. There is enough volume of accusations in the media and justice system that you are likely to hear about some false ones. So you assume the stories are true, and if/when evidence suggests they might not be, you take that seriously too.
That's not how it works...
Signing him will be very controversial.
He'll still get a ton of offers. I guess we'll see but I would think within a couple of months he'll have signed a multi-million pound contract with someone.
Yeah, I'm surprised by how many people are giving him benefit of the doubt here. Maybe not every single accusation against him is true but if the number of people accusing him of rape/sexual assault is in the double figures, I find it hard to believe that every single one of those people are lying. Making false accusations like that are themselves a criminal offence.
I also find it a bit sickening seeing Mendy painted as a victim when the reality is rape convictions are difficult to come by, especially when it concerns a rich footballer who can undoubtedly afford the best legal teams to get him off.
we should have a confidently incorrect thread
I would imagine going thru what he has gone thru over the last few years, to end up aquitted, but only after you lost your job, and your reputation.......... I'd imagine that would make you a victim too? There can be more than one victim right?
With so many still thinking the guy is guilty, where do we go from here? What a mess, I get more and more disillusioned each day...
Having suspicions is one thing, stating it as fact (in the face of contradicting evidence) and aguing over it for days is another...
With so many still thinking the guy is guilty, where do we go from here? What a mess, I get more and more disillusioned each day...
Having suspicions is one thing, stating it as fact (in the face of contradicting evidence) and aguing over it for days is another...
A lot of people accept the argument "a large number of independent accusations suggest the claims are true." Including me.
But I am guessing less people will accept the argument "a large number of accusations suggest the claims are true, even if some are shown to be false."
yeah it's strange to be so certain either way
it's impossible to be certain, which means it's possible he's a victim
There are idiots everywhere, though. It's entirely possible that many of those accusations were true and a couple of people attempted to piggyback on them for financial gain or other selfish reasons, which then undermine the legitimate cases. From what I can tell there were two instances like that.
As it is impossible to know that he is innocent.
People can and should make up their own minds, reasonably, and without talking in absolutes.