Astronomy & Space Exploration

How big is that supposed to be?
They don't know for sure, but an estimated range of 25-75 meters and travelling at ~35,000 kmph. On the lower end of the measurement, it would have fragmented into several smaller pieces - and if those pieces don't explode in the atmosphere via superheating, they would killed zero or dozens or even hundreds of people depending on the population density of the myriad impact sites (bear in mind that 3/4th of the surface is water). On the upper end of the measurement, however, most of the kinetic energy of the biggest chunk would've been transferred directly to the Earth's crust at the primary impact site - likely obliterating everything within a 2-4 km circumference depending on the angle of the impact.

http://simulator.down2earth.eu/input.html?lang=en&planet=Earth
 
They don't know for sure, but an estimated range of 25-75 meters and travelling at ~35,000 kmph. On the lower end of the measurement, it would have fragmented into several smaller pieces - and if those pieces don't explode in the atmosphere via superheating, they would killed zero or dozens or even hundreds of people depending on the population density of the myriad impact sites (bear in mind that 3/4th of the surface is water). On the upper end of the measurement, however, most of the kinetic energy of the biggest chunk would've been transferred directly to the Earth's crust at the primary impact site - likely obliterating everything within a 2-4 km circumference depending on the angle of the impact.

http://simulator.down2earth.eu/input.html?lang=en&planet=Earth
As usual. Cheers for that mate.
 
On a related note, you can monitor the trajectories of loads of asteroids using this website: http://www.asterank.com/3d/

General outlay:

YScJ2n.gif


Individual asteroid (eg. 101955 Bennu):

yMAokD.gif
 
Anyone seen the NASA advert for a post in charge of protecting the earth from aliens?

I imagine there's a bit more to it and it's more about dodgy substances that won't react well with weak humans, rather than firing missiles at ufos.
I keep saying though, it all feels like gearing up towards some huge news in the near future.

ps. if aliens really look like they're portrayed, they'd be well easy to snipe
 
Just noticed this thread and its brilliant reading through it. I find space exploration a fascinating subject and really enjoy reading up on it.

Kudos @Invictus for all your posts and information provided, stellar work for sure. Cheers mate :)
 


Tentative launch date might be delayed till sometime in 2019, unfortunately: Link.
 
Yep, the launch is going to be a real nail biter for sure. Probably the most significant moment in space engineering since, dare I say it, Cassini-Huygens, only with much grander consequences as the successor to Hubble.
 
I just remember I had a dream about the Falcon Heavy, either last night or recently. It blew up. Not sure what that says about me :lol:
 

NASA Contracts with BWXT Nuclear Energy to Advance Nuclear Thermal Propulsion Technology

As NASA pursues innovative, cost-effective alternatives to conventional propulsion technologies to forge new paths into the solar system, researchers at NASA's Marshall Space Flight Center in Huntsville, Alabama, say nuclear thermal propulsion technologies are more promising than ever, and have contracted with BWXT Nuclear Energy, Inc. of Lynchburg, Virginia, to further advance and refine those concepts.

Part of NASA's Game Changing Development Program, the Nuclear Thermal Propulsion (NTP) project could indeed significantly change space travel, largely due to its ability to accelerate a large amount of propellant out of the back of a rocket at very high speeds, resulting in a highly efficient, high-thrust engine. In comparison, a nuclear thermal rocket has double the propulsion efficiency of the Space Shuttle main engine, one of the hardest-working standard chemical engines of the past 40 years. That capability makes nuclear thermal propulsion ideal for delivering large, automated payloads to distant worlds.

"As we push out into the solar system, nuclear propulsion may offer the only truly viable technology option to extend human reach to the surface of Mars and to worlds beyond," said Sonny Mitchell, Nuclear Thermal Propulsion project manager at Marshall. "We're excited to be working on technologies that could open up deep space for human exploration."

An NTP system can cut the voyage time to Mars from six months to four and safely deliver human explorers by reducing their exposure to radiation. That also could reduce the vehicle mass, enabling deep space missions to haul more payload.

Given its experience in developing and delivering nuclear fuels for the U.S. Navy, BWXT will aid in the design and testing of a promising, low-enriched uranium-based nuclear thermal engine concept and "Cermet" -- ceramic metallic -- fuel element technology. During this three-year, $18.8-million contract, the company will manufacture and test prototype fuel elements and also help NASA properly address and resolve nuclear licensing and regulatory requirements. BWXT will aid NASA in refining the feasibility and affordability of developing a nuclear thermal propulsion engine, delivering the technical and programmatic data needed to determine how to implement this promising technology in years to come.

The company's new contract is expected to run through Sept. 30, 2019.

Nuclear-powered rocket concepts are not new. The United States conducted studies and significant ground tests from 1955 to 1972 to determine the viability of such systems, but ceased testing when plans for a crewed Mars mission were deferred. Since then, nuclear thermal propulsion has been revisited several times in conceptual mission studies and technology feasibility projects. Thanks to renewed interest in exploring the Red Planet in recent decades, NASA has begun new studies of nuclear thermal propulsion, recognizing its potential value for exploration of Mars and beyond.

In late September, the Nuclear Thermal Propulsion project will determine the feasibility of using low-enriched uranium fuel. The project then will spend a year testing and refining its ability to manufacture the necessary Cermet fuel elements. Testing of full-length fuel rods will be conducted using a unique Marshall test facility.
https://www.nasa.gov/centers/marsha...ce-nuclear-thermal-propulsion-technology.html

 
Interesting if they're going to finally finish developing nuclear engines but it's got limited uses - pretty much just trucking automated cargo ships from earth orbit to Mars. Plus, there is no way they're going to fire one of those up on earth outside a controlled test environment.

I don't like how the space programme has for a long time been all about lifting the same payloads more efficiently, and the same applies to aerospace in general. Sooner or later they are going to have to think how to get much larger payloads off the ground. It's a long time since any absolute performance records were broken.
 
I don't like how the space programme has for a long time been all about lifting the same payloads more efficiently, and the same applies to aerospace in general. Sooner or later they are going to have to think how to get much larger payloads off the ground. It's a long time since any absolute performance records were broken.

SpaceX ITS, Blue Origins New Glenn and Nasa's SLS!

You are totally right though.

Although, I'd almost argue that Nasa need to start spending much more time energy and money developing a framework for surviving and living on Mars, than just developing rockets.

What needs to be laid doen first? A Habitat? A rocket fuel creator thing? Get those designed and built and sent on a Falcon Heavy or similar.

What's next? A second stronger habitat to survive of nothung else does? Something to pull oxygen out the air?

What about communication satellites? What about mining equipment? What about rovers? What about a greenhouse? Can robots start digging tunnels to live in (regolith is good shielding).

If Nasa dont do this, then we will end up with 10 competing colonies
 
SpaceX ITS, Blue Origins New Glenn and Nasa's SLS!

You are totally right though.

Although, I'd almost argue that Nasa need to start spending much more time energy and money developing a framework for surviving and living on Mars, than just developing rockets.

What needs to be laid doen first? A Habitat? A rocket fuel creator thing? Get those designed and built and sent on a Falcon Heavy or similar.

What's next? A second stronger habitat to survive of nothung else does? Something to pull oxygen out the air?

What about communication satellites? What about mining equipment? What about rovers? What about a greenhouse? Can robots start digging tunnels to live in (regolith is good shielding).

If Nasa dont do this, then we will end up with 10 competing colonies

New Glenn will be way off and the SLS at its most powerful configuration in 10-20 years will match the 60 year old Saturn S-IC. The ITS launch stage will move things forward, but Musk has a history of wild promises and when he says hes going to build a rocket from scratch over 3 times as powerful as any in history call me skeptical!

All the stuff you mention is heavy. The higher the payload to LEO, the less trips required.
 
New Glenn will be way off and the SLS at its most powerful configuration in 10-20 years will match the 60 year old Saturn S-IC. The ITS launch stage will move things forward, but Musk has a history of wild promises and when he says hes going to build a rocket from scratch over 3 times as powerful as any in history call me skeptical!

All the stuff you mention is heavy. The higher the payload to LEO, the less trips required.
Yeah but to be fair to Musk, he often delivers!

I think the thing he gets stick most often with regards to space is saying SpaceX would launch (12?) Launches a year by 2010... Which theyve only just achieved. But that was actually using a Falcon 1 prior to the financial crash. That may well have happened without the GFC

Hes also slightly overpromised on comercial crew and *well* overpromised on FH. FH may well be a mistake. Hes also announced red dragon then cancelled it.

But anyway, my only point is, NASA have all this experience developing fuel/air/water/food systems for Mars and the Moon that theyve never used. they could easily just provide the framework for commercial companies to follow. As it is, everyone is going in blind without working together.
 
Cassini's final chapter before it crashes into Saturn in mid-September:

As Cassini plunges past Saturn, the spacecraft will collect some incredibly rich and valuable information that was too risky to obtain earlier in the mission:
  • The spacecraft will make detailed maps of Saturn's gravity and magnetic fields, revealing how the planet is arranged internally, and possibly helping to solve the irksome mystery of just how fast Saturn is rotating.
  • The final dives will vastly improve our knowledge of how much material is in the rings, bringing us closer to understanding their origins.
  • Cassini's particle detectors will sample icy ring particles being funneled into the atmosphere by Saturn's magnetic field.
  • Its cameras will take amazing, ultra-close images of Saturn's rings and clouds.
 
Some great discussion here

https://www.reddit.com/r/space/comments/6tw1hd/in_exactly_one_month_the_nearly_20_year_old/

Specifically this answer



There's a lot of wrong answers to your question. It's frustrating to read all these people mouthing off about how planetary protection is a waste of time and this is BS when they don't know jack shit about what's going on. The Cassini mission planners did an amazing job of picking out a final mission plan that maximizes scientific payout from a probe that is on its last legs.

The real reason is that Cassini is almost dead. It needs hydrazine to power its maneuvering thrusters. Without them, we have no control over where it goes. The hydrazine reserves are basically down to fumes at this point. There was even some concern that they wouldn't even be able to maneuver into the Grand Finale trajectory because of the low fuel status.

Without the thrusters, we lose all control over where Cassini goes. Eventually, the reaction wheels will become saturated with momentum and we'll even lose the ability to point Cassini and permanently lose contact with it as it starts an uncontrollable tumble. The probe is done at this point. The goal is to work out as much scientific value as possible before it dies.

Without the ability to control its trajectory, its orbit quickly becomes wildly unpredictable due to gravitational interactions with Saturn's moons. As an example, the whole Grand finale set of orbits, going up to the inner edge of the rings and doing a set of atmosphere-scraping passes before diving in is not done with thrusters at all. Cassini's orbit is timed to cross Titan's orbit at each apogee. Every few orbits, they line up and Titan tweaks Cassini's orbit. This diagram


shows how low Cassini goes with each orbit and also its interactions with Titan. (it's a confusing diagram, I know) The last pass by Titan sends Cassini right into Saturn. The last maneuvering burn was done quite a while ago, this is all just gravity interactions at this point. If we couldn't control where Cassini goes, it would eventually start wandering around Saturn in progressively crazier orbits until it smashed into something.


There were a number of possible trajectories that they figured out. Many sent Cassini out into deep space where it wouldn't risk hitting any moons. But they managed to figure out this crazy set of orbits , using Titan's gravity to send Cassini inside the rings and then move up and down in that space and into Saturn. There was one maneuver that set all this up. Newton and Einstein are in the driver seat the whole way after that. That is two-fold in purpose - you don't need to worry about running out of fuel once you enter this set of orbits. (though there will be some tiny course correction burns that they might optionally do to tweak the height of the last 5 passes) The other is that even if Cassini smashes into ring particles and is destroyed, its debris will still follow the same path and all still end up in Saturn.

edit: to help explain, here's a video showing exactly how Cassini got into the Grand Finale orbits: https://saturn.jpl.nasa.gov/resources/7508/


. Here

is a diagram version of that video. The ring grazing orbits were the ones Cassini was doing right before going into the grand finale. It was orbiting outside the rings at the low point of the orbit (the perigee). But then they used the thrusters to nudge Cassini closer to Titan at the high edge of the orbit on one of those passes. Titan bends Cassini's orbit so that the perigee is now inside the rings. Further, the maneuver was really brilliantly designed so that every few orbits, Cassini passes close (but not as close) to Titan to keep tweaking the perigee. Looking back at the first diagram from above

, you'll see that Cassini comes in pretty much dead center between the rings and Saturn. Then titan tweaks the next two orbits where the perigee goes much higher and actually runs through the lower edge of the rings. Then Titan tweaks it again and Cassini drops a bit lower for three orbits and back up into the rings for two more. Then Titan sends Cassini back to a mid-level orbit for 5 passes and then sends it to 5 orbits where Cassini is just grazing the top of Saturn's atmosphere. (This is where the last tiny thruster tweak might be used to move Cassini up or down, depending on how thick the atmosphere is) Then after that, Cassini makes one last pass by Titan which pushes the perigee far down into the Saturn atmosphere. It's an absolute marvel of orbital trajectory planning. I'm not sure if I ever seen any orbit planning that elegant. Basically no fuel used after the initial burn to get closer to titan at the beginning and even if Cassini gets destroyed at any point in the final 23 orbits, the remains will still end up safely in Saturn. Here's a diagram

showing all the orbits in Cassini's mission for the last 14 years around Saturn. The ring grazing orbits are in yellow and the grand finale orbits are in orange.


This also has huge scientific payoff. We get to go inside the rings for one. That allows us to get their mass, which we didn't know. That allows us to finally figure out how old they are and lots of other critical data to how they formed and how long they might last. We also get tons of data about the interior structure and composition of Saturn that we wouldn't be able to get any other way. Even crazier, this is occurring the same time as the Juno probe is also doing a highly elliptical, low-diving orbit around Jupiter. This allows us to do extremely detailed comparisons between Jupiter and Saturn when they're subject to similar conditions from the sun, etc. Really, it's an amazing thing that this set of orbits happened to be possible. It would have been worth doing even if Cassini weren't at the end of its life.

We are also trying to protect Titan and Enceladus from possible bacterial contamination. There's a very slim chance that those moons could harbor some sort of life and we don't want to get our grubby germs all over it. And yes, Earth bacteria can survive this length of time in space just fine. Many studies have shown that sporulating bacteria can survive for years in space as long as they're in a crevice or otherwise hidden from solar UV. We don't know the upper limit for how long those spores can survive in space but decades or even centuries is plausible. Titan, we've already possibly gotten dirty by dropping the Huygens probe on it. (Titan is likely very inhospitable to Earth life and Huygens was built and launched in a time when we were far less concerned about planetary protection) But still, it's best if we don't push our luck, now that we know that we shouldn't be doing this, even if hte odds of meaningful contamination are low. If we do end up discovering life on these worlds, we want damn sure to be able to study it without having to deal with homegrown microbes contaminating things.

The probability that there is life is pretty low and the probability that Cassini could actually infect those moons is even lower. But given that Cassini is already at the end of its useful life, this is the correct choice. The grand finale trajectory is an amazing bit of orbital mechanics that allows us to use the last gasp of a dying probe to get some amazing scientific data. The other options are basically dump it into deep space where it is of minimal value.
 

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The asteroid Florence will safely pass by Earth on September 1st, 2017 at a distance of approximately 4.4 million miles from Earth. To put this in perspective, the 2.7-mile wide asteroid will pass by at 18 times the distance from the Earth to the Moon. Florence is the largest asteroid tracked by NASA's Jet Propulsion Laboratory meaning this is a great opportunity for NASA to monitor and study the asteroid in greater detail than before.

“While many known asteroids have passed by closer to Earth than Florence will on September 1, all of those were estimated to be smaller...Florence is the largest asteroid to pass by our planet this close since the NASA program to detect and track near-Earth asteroids began.” - Paul Chodas, manager of NASA's Center for Near-Earth Object Studies at NASA's Jet Propulsion Laboratory.
Link.
 

Just to indulge in a bit of sensationalism (and conjecture), if if if these FRB 121102 radio bursts are from extraterrestrial life that existed 3 billion years ago (which hasn't gone extinct), that's a nightmare prospect. From the tweet:
Fast radio bursts (FRBs) are some of the universe’s strangest phenomena: powerful radio signals that flash from distant space for milliseconds and then disappear. They have been attributed to everything from black holes to extraterrestrial intelligence.

Because they’re so brief, and because radio telescopes can only watch a small area of the sky at a time, only about 2 dozen FRBs have ever been detected. Of those, only one has been observed to repeat: FRB 121102, which resides in a dwarf galaxy about 3 billion light years away from Earth.
For reference, a semi-reasonable projection of Type III on the fancy (and likely meaningless because their cognition could be completely different) Kardashev Scale would be horriying:
Though they won't be able to detect our earliest EM signals in 3 billions years, so unless they've mastered ubiquitous superluminal observation to spy on us (and maybe others), we're pretty safe even in our current cosmic-caveman state. :)
 
I've always figured we're safe if detected by any extraterrestrial civilization more distant than a few hundred light years; it's unlikely we'll still be at home if they decide to return the call.
 
Just to indulge in a bit of sensationalism (and conjecture), if if if these FRB 121102 radio bursts are from extraterrestrial life that existed 3 billion years ago (which hasn't gone extinct), that's a nightmare prospect. From the tweet:

For reference, a semi-reasonable projection of Type III on the fancy (and likely meaningless because their cognition could be completely different) Kardashev Scale would be horriying:

Though they won't be able to detect our earliest EM signals in 3 billions years, so unless they've mastered ubiquitous superluminal observation to spy on us (and maybe others), we're pretty safe even in our current cosmic-caveman state. :)
I would imagine that any race able to evolve, survive, and learn over 3 billion years would be able to find a way to eavesdrop on us from afar.
 
I would imagine that any race able to evolve, survive, and learn over 3 billion years would be able to find a way to eavesdrop on us from afar.
But if the laws of physics work the way we think they do, and if they are the same for us as they are for them, then they will be waiting another 3 billion years to do that.

That's assuming:

a) That this species haven't been moving very far away from where we have detected them. If they have been spreading out at an average speed of 0.5C, then they could probably pick up our response in only 1.5 billion light years. And

b) That the signal that we picked up isn't from some outpost from a species that haven't already spread out across the entire visible universe.

I would think the latter of those assumptions is fairly unlikely however. If a species had spread out over the entire visible universe, we'd have detected them a long time ago. Even assuming they use lasers for commutation between planets and solar systems instead of traditional radio waves (lasers being more energy efficient and point to point so we wouldn't see them unless we fell into their path), they would still likely show huge amounts of infrared radiation as waste.

Perhaps you could argue they would send out silent ships just to scout, but choose to stay in their own solar system otherwise. But they'd still need to wait 3 billion years for the response from those, so it's moot.

So yeah. They sent it out 3 billion years ago. They'll detect us in 3 billion years time. Maybe we meet each other in 4.5 billion years?
 
I would imagine that any race able to evolve, survive, and learn over 3 billion years would be able to find a way to eavesdrop on us from afar.
Yep, that's one possibility. But if their eavesdropping and communication technologies are constrained by the speed of light (which might really be the ultimate barrier in terms of maximum speed attainable for the most fundamental participles - even undiscovered ones), the likelihood of them successfully spying on us in our little nook out of several trillions (or rather, sextillions, and more) of stars falls to 0 given the mindbogglingly massive scale of the universe and the constructs within it, or even inter-galactic space (consider that they're probably scanning in every direction to scope the observable universe).

The signals they're receiving right now (provided they've stayed in the vicinity of FRB 121102 and not packed up and left for a more comfortable location) are from 3 billion years ago (Earth time - when it was an Archean Eon volcanic hellhole with simplistic prokaryotic cellular life) and pretty insignificant from the standpoint of a galactic scale civilization. That is, if they're still interested in spying on others.

Maybe they've reached an intangible ascetic level of consciousness and morality where they no longer possess the curiosity or desire to explore other insignificant lifeforms, or maybe they've unlocked pocket universes that don't align with our dimensions and aren't even a part of our sensory plane, or maybe they've come and gone, or maybe they precipitated the Cretaceous–Paleogene extinction event, and so on and so forth. Fun discussion point, but ultimately fruitless because we cannot possibly grasp how ultra-advanced civilizations operate given that we consider things from a pretty primitive and intrinsically blinkered standpoint.
 
I imagine if there's a civilization out there a billion years ahead of us technologically, its pointless even speculating how they do things or what they may be capable of, our knowledge base would be so insanely infantile in comparison. Could probably say the same on 1,000 years, never mind a billion.

Who knows what is possible in this crazy universe, we certainly do not.
 
Just to touch on that.
Any sentient species which has evolved for such a long time would have probably vacated their physical bodies and would probably have found a way around the physics as we know it. Although to them, it wouldn't be so much as finding a way around them. More so exploit it for their benefit. They'll have delved into sciences we don't even know exist.
 
Just to touch on that.
Any sentient species which has evolved for such a long time would have probably vacated their physical bodies and would probably have found a way around the physics as we know it. Although to them, it wouldn't be so much as finding a way around them. More so exploit it for their benefit. They'll have delved into sciences we don't even know exist.

That's a good point. We tend to think of other life as similar to us when it could be completely invisible to our instruments.
 
Most likely there is a or several civilizations far superior to our own out there, but the distances they would have to cover to make contact just makes it infeasible that they would make contact.

There is advanced and there is the level of advanced you'd have to be to bend space and time, which is realistically what it would take to travel the distances.
 
That's a good point. We tend to think of other life as similar to us when it could be completely invisible to our instruments.
There is no reason that life in the Universe couldn't be incredibly common, as long as the barrier to intelligent life is incredible. Given that it took 3.8 billion years for intelligent life to evolve (although only 500 million years since the first fish) I imagine that's not an impossibility.

What really intrigues me is the possibility of life evolving on moons of Jupiter and Saturn like planets.

Large gaseous planets are the most common type of planet we have found (because they are the easiest to detect). And we have found them in abundance.

Both Jupiter and Saturn have moons with liquid water (For Saturn: Rhea, Dione, Enceladus as a liquid, and Iapetus and Mimas as a solid, and for Jupiter: Ganymede and Callisto and Europa all have liquid water) and the Cassini probe has even found plumes of liquid water being ejected into space.

If not for Earth, these moons would seem to be the most likely candidate for life to exist anywhere in the universe:
  • They have an incredible abundance of liquid water (the most in our edit: solar system)
  • They have various sources of heat.
  • They have the possibility of seeding each other with life, either through the ejection of water plumes, or meteor impacts.
A few points to go against that, some moons are further away from their planet than the Earth is to the Sun (like Callisto) and the surface of many of these planets is likely to be hospitable to life so even if life did land there from another moon, it wouldn't necessarily survive.

But still, unlike the Earth that would require a meteoric impact to eject life into space (before Man invented the rocket), these moons are ejecting previously liquid water into space at escape velocities all the time. If Panspermia is a thing anywhere in the universe, it seems like it should happen most commonly on moons of this type.

Hopefully there are fish like creatures in nearly every system in the universe :D
 
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Most likely there is a or several civilizations far superior to our own out there, but the distances they would have to cover to make contact just makes it infeasible that they would make contact.

There is advanced and there is the level of advanced you'd have to be to bend space and time, which is realistically what it would take to travel the distances.

It would likely be a case of finding the loophole in space and time, rather than bending them.

There is already a movement towards the idea that space is our own construct anyway and it's actually time that is the defining characteristic of our universe. Therefore two points in space can be plugged together any way you choose if you know how to do it.
 
@rcoobc Good points but you're also going against what Raoul stated. We often think of water as the necessity to life but that may be the case for our specific existence on this planet. Other elements could potentially produce life in ways we cannot contemplate. Additionally, if there exists species millions/billions of years in existence, it's probable they've figured out/created the god gene, AI, machine life, etc., and probably colonized throughout space. We may be a product of their colonization and sciences they've created.
 
There is already a movement towards the idea that space is our own construct anyway and it's actually time that is the defining characteristic of our universe. Therefore two points in space can be plugged together any way you choose if you know how to do it.
Can you link to any paper/book that makes this case?
 
Can you link to any paper/book that makes this case?

Posting from my phone but look up event symmetry and quantum graphity. There are papers on those and other topics related to the theory that the universe is connected in a kind of lattice where connections can be pulled apart and moved to connect to a new part of the universe.