Agreed.A decent number 9 and back up/help for Cas the priority this summer above anything else right now.That includes DeGea.
Are we a one man team? (And that man is Casemiro)
- Thread starter The Corinthian
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Interested to know whether Eriksen was also unavailable for most, if not all of the games during Casemiro's absences.
What other players were unavailable?
What was the quality of opponent with/without Casemiro?
Other mitigating factors?
Obviously, any team will miss a quality player like Casemiro but I think hyperbolic statements like 'we are a one man team' are overly simplistic based just on a narrow analysis.
What other players were unavailable?
What was the quality of opponent with/without Casemiro?
Other mitigating factors?
Obviously, any team will miss a quality player like Casemiro but I think hyperbolic statements like 'we are a one man team' are overly simplistic based just on a narrow analysis.
It's not 'as' important as the striker, but someone who can slot into that position at a decent level is definitely a high priority. The question is whether we go for someone cheap who can just play that role well enough to get us through when Casemiro isn't available (perhaps a younger player who has the potential to be more than that), or if we get someone more expensive who can rotate with Casemiro or play next to him on a regular basis.
I like to crunch numbers and I've been keeping track of our results this season. Whilst sample sizes aren't massive and there are variances in fixture difficulty, let's have a look at the difference Casemiro makes to our results.
With Casemiro starting:
Without Casemiro starting:
- Played 15
- W10 D3 L2
- G23 GA16
- 66.67% win ratio
- 2.2 points per game - 83.6 points over a 38 game season
An 18 point swing takes us from being 50/50 for top four to near title challengers.
- Played 15
- W8 D2 L5
- G23 GA21
- 53.33% win ratio
- 1.73 points per game - 65.86 points over a 38 game season
An even more stark way of visualising this is with expected goal difference.
With Casemiro:
9 comfortable games, 3 relatively comfortable ones, 2 close ones and 1 battering.
Without Casemiro:
3 comfortable games, 4 relatively comfortable ones, five close ones and 3 batterings.
With Casemiro playing we have only "lost" on expected goal difference once, whereas our games without him are all tight affairs, except when we give someone a hiding: Everton (H), Leicester (H) and Leeds (H), or are on the receiving end of one: (City (A), Arsenal (A) and Newcastle (A), with both of the latter scenarios being equally likely.
On this basis, we must sign a competent, like-for-like backup to Casemiro. Given his age, someone younger, playing in a lower tier league will be a better fit from a squad harmony perspective and leave more in the tank for other positions like striker where we may need to splash out more.
They would also hit their prime at the point where you would expect Casemiro to start declining or at least need his minutes managing. A Premier League "proven" player, like Rice or Palhinha will not be happy with this role and will cost way too much.
Signing this player will make McTominay surplus to requirements as he's only really been used as a Casemiro backup this season.
Selling him will probably offset most if not all of the fee for either Maxence Caqueret or Manuel Ugarte. Both are high volume tacklers and press resistant, so would be excellent against the bigger teams. Ugarte is more of a pure DM where Caqueret is better at chance creation from open play passing. Caqueret could play with or instead of Casemiro, whilst Ugarte would be more of a like-for-like player. Either way a Casemiro backup is imperative.
Fundamentally good point. Arguably, a credible backup for Casemiro is the club's most pressing need, because we simply don't have one. At all. Even at no 9, we are closer to being covered (Martial when healthy, plus Rashford).
But it's also connected to acquiring a new #8, which ETH evidently sees as a priority. That could be a player who can fill the #6 role as well. In many ways that would be ideal - it would give us a trio of Casemiro (#6) -Eriksen (#8) - new guy (#6 or #8) who could rotate. Not that such a player would be easy to find.
Fecker missed too many games on bullshit, not injury.
He's 31.
His fitness record is fine.
Cut out the games missing because of disciplinary actions and he's there 8 out of 10 games. The other 2 games we have enough of cover for him.
Meaning - his replacement or backup is NOT a primary transfer target.
Getting a proper fecking striker is.
Break the bank for who ever the feck Erik wants.
He's 31.
His fitness record is fine.
Cut out the games missing because of disciplinary actions and he's there 8 out of 10 games. The other 2 games we have enough of cover for him.
Meaning - his replacement or backup is NOT a primary transfer target.
Getting a proper fecking striker is.
Break the bank for who ever the feck Erik wants.
What, you think we can just take it for granted that he's going to be able to play nearly all the time?
Casemiro is arguably our best player this season and what we did was remove our worst players/area from last season (McFred) and replaced one of them with one of the best.
The effect is evident.
And yes, we absolutely need another top class midfielder. McT and Fred are simply not good enough to start matches, if we want to win big competitions/games.
The effect is evident.
And yes, we absolutely need another top class midfielder. McT and Fred are simply not good enough to start matches, if we want to win big competitions/games.
Nothing in life is taken for granted.
The matter of fact is that he didn't miss most of our games due injury - it was due disciplinary actions.
He has a good fitness and injury record.
Yes, i expect him to play 7 out of 10 games if taken care of properly.
Modrić has 6 years on him. With proper managment he plays most of the games.
Yeah, it's just probably not a stupid move to be prepared to deal with it if for some reason he doesn't play. This is why we have more than one good player in every other position. Lengthy injuries can happen to anyone, whatever his fitness record.
Sure.
But, you know, this ain't football manager.
We already have 2 players on massive wages who can play Casemiro's position.
We don't have unlimited resources.
And, the biggest point - we have more pressing positions to target and spend money on.
The fact we don't have a proper striker in the club that is Manchester United is a fecking travesty.
Caqueret and Lavia would be nice in the summer.
Even your own data shows that a striker is far more important.
Great post, I agree that a quality DM should be top priority alongside a striker if we want to challenge for the title. Hence why I’ve been spamming for us to sign Caicedo.
Who are they? Please don’t say Fred and McTominay.
I'd love Caicedo for this reason. I think you could play them (Casemiro and Caicedo) together with Bruno and still have enough possession and creativity to break down opponents, but when Casemiro inevitably gets banned Caicedo could slot into the deeper position and offer similar levels of defensive security.
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I agree it's just as important. McTom and Sabitzer seemed to develop a working system just before Casemiro's return this time, but I only saw that for 2 games
With Casemiro out, we tend not to control games and give away a lot of chances. I've said before that the replacement doesn't need to be as good, he just has to know how to play the number 6 position
With Casemiro out, we tend not to control games and give away a lot of chances. I've said before that the replacement doesn't need to be as good, he just has to know how to play the number 6 position
Buying 'backup' is a false economy. We should either buy first team players or young players that will be ready as first team regulars in 12 to 24 months.
No one wants to join United to sit on the bench and we don't want to sign players of daft wages to sit them on the bench incase Casemiro gets injured.
No one wants to join United to sit on the bench and we don't want to sign players of daft wages to sit them on the bench incase Casemiro gets injured.
I agree. Casemiro is world class but our complete lack of a midfielder who understands positioning aside from him is the biggest reason for our issues in midfield for years. Saw an article where somebody argued us being a 1 man team in the way that we plugged the hole in the ceiling with simply the best DM out there, but even an acceptable DM would still plug that hole and improve us loads. CF and DM backup are musts. We can make do with the rest if needed. That's why I think Lavia would be brilliant. He can both play next to Casemiro and learn from him.
Really, it's not football manager?
Bolded: Whole point: No, we don't. We do not have anyone who can cover even fairly adequately for Casemiro. McTominay is plainly simply not able to do so without very significantly weakening the team, and I'm at a loss to imagine who you think the second one is.
Crunch those numbers again please
Knowing Caicedo has just signed a new deal, he would be more expensive than Rice.
Worth it for the quality, longevity and versatility.
If Rice cost less then I will pick him over Caicedo.
Fair dos
100% agree.
He's so much more important for us than Rashford (whom is also very important).
we need both but the need for a first choice 9 is obviously more important than a back-up
If we want to be serious title contenders then have to reshuffle the backup for next season. Fred, Scott and Donny all have to go and we need to get competent midfielders as backup for all 3 positions. The current backups just dont fit the positions well enough and quality drops significantly. Add a first team striker to the above and we cooking next season.
The other alternative is
Bruno/New First team CM/Casemiro
Sabitzer/Eriksen/New DM backup
The other alternative is
Bruno/New First team CM/Casemiro
Sabitzer/Eriksen/New DM backup
Yeah, if we can only sign 2 players then it's clearly a #9 and a DM.
Then if anyone leaves they need replacing, though McTominay would be replaced by the DM and Weghorst by the striker, so we're really talking about replacing/upgrading on any of:
-Maguire (I think he'll want to leave to start somewhere and try to keep his England spot for the 2024 Euros)
-De Gea (wants to stay, not sure what Ten Hag thinks of him overall or if he has a replacement in mind. Could wait a year on this if De Gea resigns at reasonable, sellable wages, but that would be a massive paycut)
-RB (no idea which guy he'd choose, though at a push I'd guess Dalot because he's younger and Ten Hag was skeptical of Wan-Bissaka)
-Sabitzer (if he doesn't sign, maybe Kamada on a free)
and then in 2024 our big signings are an expensive #8.
So yeah, I won't be surprised if our summer is something smaller like say bringing in Kolo Muani and Sangare, and maybe Maguire out and a new right-footed CB I won't try to predict, and Sabitzer resigned or someone like Kamada brought in instead.
Then if anyone leaves they need replacing, though McTominay would be replaced by the DM and Weghorst by the striker, so we're really talking about replacing/upgrading on any of:
-Maguire (I think he'll want to leave to start somewhere and try to keep his England spot for the 2024 Euros)
-De Gea (wants to stay, not sure what Ten Hag thinks of him overall or if he has a replacement in mind. Could wait a year on this if De Gea resigns at reasonable, sellable wages, but that would be a massive paycut)
-RB (no idea which guy he'd choose, though at a push I'd guess Dalot because he's younger and Ten Hag was skeptical of Wan-Bissaka)
-Sabitzer (if he doesn't sign, maybe Kamada on a free)
and then in 2024 our big signings are an expensive #8.
So yeah, I won't be surprised if our summer is something smaller like say bringing in Kolo Muani and Sangare, and maybe Maguire out and a new right-footed CB I won't try to predict, and Sabitzer resigned or someone like Kamada brought in instead.
Why we're a one man team and a Casemiro backup is just as important as a number 9 this Summer
We're not a "one man team" FFS. We have no single dominant player without whom we'd be like sheep in the wolf's den.
A Casemiro backup is important, but it's nowhere near as important as a 9. Unless one believes that Martial comes back firing on all cylinders and will go an entire season without fitness problems, a proper 9 is far and away the most glaring hole in the squad that needs to be addressed this summer.
And more important than a backup for Casemiro, which is important, is an upgrade/cover for Eriksen.
The priority list is pretty clear, in this order:
9
8
6
After that, we can talk about a RB and even a keeper, for those who those believe that De Gea is insufficiently "modern".
We're not a "one man team" FFS. We have no single dominant player without whom we'd be like sheep in the wolf's den.
A Casemiro backup is important, but it's nowhere near as important as a 9. Unless one believes that Martial comes back firing on all cylinders and will go an entire season without fitness problems, a proper 9 is far and away the most glaring hole in the squad that needs to be addressed this summer.
And more important than a backup for Casemiro, which is important, is an upgrade/cover for Eriksen.
The priority list is pretty clear, in this order:
9
8
6
After that, we can talk about a RB and even a keeper, for those who those believe that De Gea is insufficiently "modern".
Caicedo should be top target if we want to splash the cash - expect he will be £80m.
The secondary/cheaper alternatives would be Ugarte or Lavia as others have mentioned - expect they will be £40-50m - unless Lavia has a cheaper release clause.
Great thread @sifi36 .
It's anecdotally night and day for us when Casemiro and Eriksen and Bruno play together Vs any of those + Fred/McTominay. But I'd still argue that we need a goalscorer more than anything else right now - without Rashford and particularly if we lose Bruno too it's not obvious where our goals come from against anyone other than the bottom half.
I'd say we are are barely a 10th place finishing side without those two, even -with- Casemiro in the team. Antony has shown signs of stepping up at least but we are still at the bare minimum a 9 short of being anywhere near the title. Not sure there's many at Casemiro's level that we could even sign.
It's anecdotally night and day for us when Casemiro and Eriksen and Bruno play together Vs any of those + Fred/McTominay. But I'd still argue that we need a goalscorer more than anything else right now - without Rashford and particularly if we lose Bruno too it's not obvious where our goals come from against anyone other than the bottom half.
I'd say we are are barely a 10th place finishing side without those two, even -with- Casemiro in the team. Antony has shown signs of stepping up at least but we are still at the bare minimum a 9 short of being anywhere near the title. Not sure there's many at Casemiro's level that we could even sign.
Casemiro is important, mainly because we have nobody of a similar style. Not even close.
But this type of stuff comes up every season. You are always going to get some statistics that states that when somebody doesn't play the results are much worse. Sometimes it doesn't even make that much sense who the player is, sometimes it does. But also, that's kind of why we have top players, key players, if they don't make a huge difference then what do you sign a guy like Casimero for.
I don't find those stats particularly amazing. Most fans seemed to think we were a one man team with Ronaldo previously. If you looked at the stats and goalscoring there would be an argument. But a season on you find new solutions, new ways of playing and the landscape looks a lot different. I'm not trying to say we don't get a Casimero alternative, understudy, someone else to play alongside him (whichever it may be) but I don't find anything in these types of statistics that aren't quite apparent anyway.
But this type of stuff comes up every season. You are always going to get some statistics that states that when somebody doesn't play the results are much worse. Sometimes it doesn't even make that much sense who the player is, sometimes it does. But also, that's kind of why we have top players, key players, if they don't make a huge difference then what do you sign a guy like Casimero for.
I don't find those stats particularly amazing. Most fans seemed to think we were a one man team with Ronaldo previously. If you looked at the stats and goalscoring there would be an argument. But a season on you find new solutions, new ways of playing and the landscape looks a lot different. I'm not trying to say we don't get a Casimero alternative, understudy, someone else to play alongside him (whichever it may be) but I don't find anything in these types of statistics that aren't quite apparent anyway.
For what it's worth:
2022-23 points per game (PL only):
AWB - 10 starts - 2.46
Casemiro - 16 starts - 2.15
Eriksen - 19 starts - 2.10
--
Team Average - 30 starts - 1.97
--
Dalot - 20 starts - 1.86
McTominay - 10 starts - 1.86
Martinez - 24 starts - 1.85
Varane - 19 starts - 1.81
Shaw - 23 starts - 1.71
Players not listed are within 0,10 of average or have less than 10 starts.
Here's last season:
2021-22:
Fred - 24 starts - 1.75
Varane - 20 starts - 1.73
Mason - 16 starts - 1.72
Maguire - 28 starts - 1.67
Dalot - 19 starts - 1.63
Ronaldo - 27 starts - 1.63
---
Team Average - 38 starts - 1.53
---
Elanga - 14 starts - 1.43
Lindelof - 26 starts - 1.39
Rashford - 13 starts - 1.36
AWB - 20 starts - 1.25
2022-23 points per game (PL only):
AWB - 10 starts - 2.46
Casemiro - 16 starts - 2.15
Eriksen - 19 starts - 2.10
--
Team Average - 30 starts - 1.97
--
Dalot - 20 starts - 1.86
McTominay - 10 starts - 1.86
Martinez - 24 starts - 1.85
Varane - 19 starts - 1.81
Shaw - 23 starts - 1.71
Players not listed are within 0,10 of average or have less than 10 starts.
Here's last season:
2021-22:
Fred - 24 starts - 1.75
Varane - 20 starts - 1.73
Mason - 16 starts - 1.72
Maguire - 28 starts - 1.67
Dalot - 19 starts - 1.63
Ronaldo - 27 starts - 1.63
---
Team Average - 38 starts - 1.53
---
Elanga - 14 starts - 1.43
Lindelof - 26 starts - 1.39
Rashford - 13 starts - 1.36
AWB - 20 starts - 1.25
This is why I think we should go all out for Caicedo and Rabiot this summer as both can fill in for Casemiro but also offer something else as well, if we can shift McTominay and VDB we could offset a large chunk of Caicedo’s fee whilst Rabiot is on a free.
I feel the same way at the back as if we can move Maguire, Bailly, Jones and Tuanzebe all on then bring in N’Dicka on a free we’d have a natural left footed back up for Martinez that has his peak ahead of him.
There’s a lot of potentially clever signings out there on frees this summer but our main problem is moving deadwood on which we seem to say every single year.
I feel the same way at the back as if we can move Maguire, Bailly, Jones and Tuanzebe all on then bring in N’Dicka on a free we’d have a natural left footed back up for Martinez that has his peak ahead of him.
There’s a lot of potentially clever signings out there on frees this summer but our main problem is moving deadwood on which we seem to say every single year.
We desperately need a striker so that is a huge priority. But we don’t have anyone who can cover or compete with either Casemiro or Eriksen.
That’s a huge problem as well, I don’t see why we can’t bring in couple of midfielders, budget should cover an expensive player like Caceido and then someone cheaper like Kokcu.
That’s a huge problem as well, I don’t see why we can’t bring in couple of midfielders, budget should cover an expensive player like Caceido and then someone cheaper like Kokcu.
Came on to make this point
I seem to remember we have missed them both in key games
Not sure how many teams missing their two first choice midfielders can hold a strong win %
It just shows what a state our midfield was in.
Eriksen helps but OP's point is true, we don't have a single player that can play as a holding DM in the entire squad. Not one. So you're forced to play someone like Fred or McTominay out of position where they've proven time and again they are uncomfortable and lack quality.
It's not just the evidence of results. It's clear in every game he's out we lack a significant amount of control in the midfield and look much more vulnerable to counters. We can't dominate territory nearly as well.
It's unlikely that we'll have the 300m it would take to bring in the players we need to bring in, plus additional expensive squad man signings such as Caicedo. No chance does Caicedo walk into our starting XI on a regular basis. In no universe is a backup CDM our "top target".