ALL issues relating to the bond issue and club finances

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Another edit. The second part of that post is sheer hypocrisy of the highest order. All you've ever done since I started posting in these threads is attempt silly put downs against what I and others have said.

Once again, it's there for anybody to see on the previous page. I posted a perfectly inoffensive post with no mention of you, and within minutes you came piling in with your lame point-scoring games. You just can't help yourself.

Why do you keep going on about edits btw? Am I not allowed to expand on my posts - it's not like I've changed anything I've already written...
 
But the money in United's account isn't "not being used" and that is an important distinction.

Good pont if true, but I dont' see it being used for anything...

As Ciderman says above "The 'vast majority' won't get spent during the season".

Unless you are expecting a massive signing or a new South Stand, I don't see what good this money is doing the club in the bank.
 
Good pont if true, but I dont' see it being used for anything...

As Ciderman says above "The 'vast majority' won't get spent during the season".

Unless you are expecting a massive signing or a new South Stand, I don't see what good this money is doing the club in the bank.

Well, this is what I am wrestling with at the moment.

The money clearly goes towards paying the players wages, paying the electric bill and flying our players to European destinations and staying in hotels and things like that.

What I appear to be overlooking is that other money also comes into the club throughout the course of the year.
 
Exactly. You know this, i know this, SAF knows this, Gill knows this, the Glazers know this. The funding will come when SAF requires it, it's a no-brainer; anyone telling you that the Glazers will take all our money to pay off PIK notes is full of shit.

Again, just because we've been investing in youth and potential for the last twelve months, doesn't mean that that's all we can afford and it's going to be that way forever now; when Giggs and Scholes retire SAF will likely want some well qualified replacements, and there's no reason whatsoever to believe that the Glazers will not sanction those kind of hefty transfers.

If you believe that the Glazers will willingly feck up their primary asset by denying the funding needed to keep it commercially attractive with a high global brand-value then you need a good punch in the head.

They'll not starve United because they'll make no profit from doing so. Instead they'll feed the club and watch it and their profits grow. They'll pay just enough to keep the PIK's at a constant level and use the rest to increase the value of the club by keeping it at the top of the game whilst the overseas markets flourish and the money pours in.

Is there any reason why with proper investment United cannot be worth £2bn+ by 2017? How much will the club be worth if we're starved of funding for seven years and never winning a thing? Not much i would imagine.

Of course the Glazers are not going to "willingly feck up the club" as you put it. They are in it for the long haul, as has often been mentioned. Gill has a nice job and appears to be a reasonably competent, respected and, of course, well paid CEO. Fergie realises that retirement is around the corner and wants to go out on a high with perhaps two remianing goals to achieve. One more European Cup to put the club on a par with the other four times and more winners and another league title to put United ahead of Liverpool. He could walk away right now if he wanted to or if he vehemently disagreed with what's going on but those remaining ambitions override any reservations he may have.

The Glazers realise that by 2017 United could be a very valuable investment which they could jetison for real money - maybe close to £2 bn as you suggest. They would like, by that stage, having paid off the PIK debt, to be in a positikon to repay the bond holders or at worst to have to refinance only a part of that debt. This is the prospect as they most probably see it, instead of being forced to sell now for the comparatively measly sum of say £450 net (£1.2bn less the bond less their PIK debt).

If you take the Forbes valuation method then 12x operating profit would mean that such profit would have to be around £167m in 2017 (£100m currently, as we know). By no means impossible judging by the story so far. However, a recent BBC article on Liverpool's valuation suggests that they are valued at 8.5 x. If that is the applicable multiple to value football clubs and it remains so, United will need to produce net profits of closer to £235m in 2017 to give the Glazers what we think they are aiming for.

This presupposes that the debt is paid off or is considerably reduced. At this year end there was cash in the bank. However, a large part of that was/is earmarked to be funnelled through to the Glazers to reduce their PIK debt. They will need more to liquidate that debt and also, perhaps, to build up cash reserves to repay the bondholders in 2017. In addition there will, no doubt be infrastructure spending requirements as well as expenditure on the team.

It's difficult to see how all these objectives are going to be achieved. It seems that real expenditure on the team is on hold for now - simply because overheads cannot be allowed to exceed their current levels (as a % of revenue). However, with the retirements of Giggs, Scholes, Neville, VDS and maybe Rio too, suitable replacements will have to be found. This will be a combination of say the young hopefuls which Fergie has already brought on board plus two or three new signings, whose combined wages won't exceed those of the old stagers.

The problem is, whilst there are restraints on spending on the team, what about United's competitiveness in the short term and what effects will under performance have on revenues and on the whole Glazer plan for the future ?
 
Well, this is what I am wrestling with at the moment.

The money clearly goes towards paying the players wages, paying the electric bill and flying our players to European destinations and staying in hotels and things like that.

What I appear to be overlooking is that other money also comes into the club throughout the course of the year.

Quite.

If we're giong to run down £160m over the course of the year then fair enough, but it seems a lot to me, and certainly contradicts the idea of us being cash rich, if we actually have just enough to survive!

When people talke about whether any club has money spare or is skint, then it's basically rooted in one of two things - are they going to go bust and do they have cash for transfers.
In our situation it's clearly rooted in the latter - Gill's comments about there being plenty for Fergie to spend, and people's refusal to believe said comments etc.

So it somce down to the same old point, which can make transfer muppets of us all...

If we go out and spend £50m+ net on a player or two, then it pretty much proves that worries that the current situation is depriving us of funds are undounfded.
If the Glazers pay of £70m of PIKs, then it pretty much proves that they are depriving the club of funds to pay off their own debts.
If neither of these happen, then we are left in the dark, bickering as we have been for the last couple of years.
 
Yes - as you can see I was comparing your dismissal of losses already run up with your insistance on quoting future revenue figures which had not yet been realised. Go talk to an accountant about prudence.

As you gleefully pointed out in that thread, cash is at its lowest at the end of the season, and at its highest at the start, when season ticket monies have just come in. And yet you insisted on bangnig on about the fact that come September we would have £160m, even though the conversation was taking place in June!

My dismissal of losses (or more accurately the ''would have lost money without sale of Ronaldo'' nonsense) was entirely correct. Have you read Andersred's thoughts on the matter? I was also entirely justified in projecting cash at bank of c. £160m at June 30 2010. I said that when the results were released around the end of September, they would show that the club had cash at bank of c. £160m. What's your point?

The key difference between us A1Dan is that I continue to get things right and you keep getting things wrong. That's the reality.
 
I was also entirely justified in projecting cash at bank of c. £160m at June 30 2010. I said that when the results were released around the end of September, they would show that the club had cash at bank of c. £160m. What's your point?

My point? My point is really simple...

On the last page you claimed that I had said you were wrong to rpedict a £160m bank balance. I didn't say this, you made it up.
 
Quite.

If we're giong to run down £160m over the course of the year then fair enough, but it seems a lot to me, and certainly contradicts the idea of us being cash rich,was a if we actually have just enough to survive!

Hey. I'm a bit confused on this issue at the moment. Don't take what I have said over what GCHQ or others have said. It is just when something doesn't sit right in my head, I like to know why and where I am going wrong. I put forward my thought process and invited GCHQ to show me where I was going wrong. This doesn't mean for one second that what I said was correct.

Actually, because my head was filled with imaginary cash-flow graphs, I was a little distracted when I responded to your "mortgage" analogy.

You admitted that I had made a "good point". Once you have accept that the reasoning behind that logic is sound, you are teetering on the brink of accepting that what the Glazers are doing makes sense.

Just a word of warning. Watch your step. It's a long way down! :D

When people talke about whether any club has money spare or is skint, then it's basically rooted in one of two things - are they going to go bust and do they have cash for transfers.
In our situation it's clearly rooted in the latter - Gill's comments about there being plenty for Fergie to spend, and people's refusal to believe said comments etc.

So it somce down to the same old point, which can make transfer muppets of us all...

If we go out and spend £50m+ net on a player or two, then it pretty much proves that worries that the current situation is depriving us of funds are undounfded.
If the Glazers pay of £70m of PIKs, then it pretty much proves that they are depriving the club of funds to pay off their own debts.
If neither of these happen, then we are left in the dark, bickering as we have been for the last couple of years.

Fair enough but if it can be proven that there is money in the bank which can be used to buy £50m of players if need be then doesn't that really prove that Fergie just doesn't deem it necessary to spend that money this year but might need it next year.

Obviously, if we ever get to a stage (yes, please!) in the future where we are able to buy players, add a humungous amount to the cash reserves every season and win the odd pot or two in the process then it would be nice to think that the owners would think about maybe doing something about ticket prices.

Don't hold your breath on that one though. There's a long way still to go.
 
Once again, it's there for anybody to see on the previous page. I posted a perfectly inoffensive post with no mention of you, and within minutes you came piling in with your lame point-scoring games. You just can't help yourself.

Why do you keep going on about edits btw? Am I not allowed to expand on my posts - it's not like I've changed anything I've already written...

So because of one post your posting style on hundreds of other occasions should be completely forgotten? Is that what you're saying?

And let's take a look at this inoffensive post of yours a little bit closer shall we. You've blatantly been waiting for a suitable time post-results announcement to pop in and say hello. No doubt after realising that the accounts made a complete nonsense of everything you've said, you couldn't quite bring yourself to come into this thread and admit as much. Anyone with a little bit about them would have done just that. You on the other hand, have waited for as long as possible before quite absurdly posting the following:

''Alright caftards, anything interesting been said in this thread in the last month?

Last time I had a few weeks away I came back to find Fred had been temporarily banned, and GCHQ was being sued, so I'm expecting great things!''

A few weeks away eh? How convenient. You know exactly what's been said in this thread over the past week or so. After all you'd have to have been living on Mars to not know what the discussion would largely have been about.

It's a blatant attempt to hide your own embarrassment. And yes I'm afraid I couldn't help but point out the obvious.
 
You admitted that I had made a "good point". Once you have accept that the reasoning behind that logic is sound, you are teetering on the brink of accepting that what the Glazers are doing makes sense.

Oh, it may well make sense... for them.

While it could still be faily touch and go, there's always been at least a decent chance that their plan will come off, in which case they have done very well out of it indeed - got themselves a billion pound asset, paid for by a bunch of poor suckers who are basically addicted... It's like taking over the crack factory, but legal.

But I can still see no scenario in which any of this benefits the club or its fans, and it still seems entirely probable that it is in fact a handicap, to some degree, to success on the field and opportunity to attend and enjoy matches.
 
Oh, it may well make sense... for them.

While it could still be faily touch and go, there's always been at least a decent chance that their plan will come off, in which case they have done very well out of it indeed - got themselves a billion pound asset, paid for by a bunch of poor suckers who are basically addicted... It's like taking over the crack factory, but legal.

But I can still see no scenario in which any of this benefits the club or its fans, and it still seems entirely probable that it is in fact a handicap, to some degree, to success on the field and opportunity to attend and enjoy matches.

OK. Back to square one. I'm out. :)
 
You've blatantly been waiting for a suitable time post-results announcement to pop in and say hello.

:lol:

You have an incredibly inflated opinion of the regard I hold these little chats in.

I've just got back from a very nice holiday in the US and Canada, thank you very much.
It was nice to spent time with my family, but deep down I couldn't stop thinking about you.
 
Of course the Glazers are not going to "willingly feck up the club" as you put it. They are in it for the long haul, as has often been mentioned. Gill has a nice job and appears to be a reasonably competent, respected and, of course, well paid CEO. Fergie realises that retirement is around the corner and wants to go out on a high with perhaps two remianing goals to achieve. One more European Cup to put the club on a par with the other four times and more winners and another league title to put United ahead of Liverpool. He could walk away right now if he wanted to or if he vehemently disagreed with what's going on but those remaining ambitions override any reservations he may have.

The Glazers realise that by 2017 United could be a very valuable investment which they could jetison for real money - maybe close to £2 bn as you suggest. They would like, by that stage, having paid off the PIK debt, to be in a positikon to repay the bond holders or at worst to have to refinance only a part of that debt. This is the prospect as they most probably see it, instead of being forced to sell now for the comparatively measly sum of say £450 net (£1.2bn less the bond less their PIK debt).

If you take the Forbes valuation method then 12x operating profit would mean that such profit would have to be around £167m in 2017 (£100m currently, as we know). By no means impossible judging by the story so far. However, a recent BBC article on Liverpool's valuation suggests that they are valued at 8.5 x. If that is the applicable multiple to value football clubs and it remains so, United will need to produce net profits of closer to £235m in 2017 to give the Glazers what we think they are aiming for.

This presupposes that the debt is paid off or is considerably reduced. At this year end there was cash in the bank. However, a large part of that was/is earmarked to be funnelled through to the Glazers to reduce their PIK debt. They will need more to liquidate that debt and also, perhaps, to build up cash reserves to repay the bondholders in 2017. In addition there will, no doubt be infrastructure spending requirements as well as expenditure on the team.

It's difficult to see how all these objectives are going to be achieved. It seems that real expenditure on the team is on hold for now - simply because overheads cannot be allowed to exceed their current levels (as a % of revenue). However, with the retirements of Giggs, Scholes, Neville, VDS and maybe Rio too, suitable replacements will have to be found. This will be a combination of say the young hopefuls which Fergie has already brought on board plus two or three new signings, whose combined wages won't exceed those of the old stagers.

The problem is, whilst there are restraints on spending on the team, what about United's competitiveness in the short term and what effects will under performance have on revenues and on the whole Glazer plan for the future ?

Ok, good post. But i think you're making the mistake of presuming that the Glazers will want to have paid off the PIK notes by 2017, and also that they'll have to 'build us cash reserves to re-pay the bond holders in 2017'.

Paying the bond holders is easy. The Glazers wont need to build up any cash reserves because they'll just refinance again and pay the bond holders with more borrowed money, it's that simple. Probably this will happen before 2017.

As for paying off the PIK's before 2017 i just can't see it happening for exactly the reasons you've just detailed. They don't need to pay off the PIK's, they just need to keep them from snowballing out of control; once the £70m carve-out is taken then between now and 2017 keeping the PIK's at a reasonable level (below £250m i'd say was reasonable to keep them under control) would cost relatively little money; one single further payment of £30-£40m in 2016 would achieve this. They'd simply have to re-finance the notes then in 2017, which shouldn't be a problem if they've been well managed.

Using this tactic United would have had plenty of cash available for squad investment over the seven year period, we'd likely have benefitted from the FFP regs. and there's every chance we'd still be at the top of our game competing for trophies on all fronts. We'd be a global commercial gold-mine and with the advance and cheapening of televisual technology coupled with aggressive expansion into overseas markets we'd be watched by millions all over the world.

Let's say our EBITDA by this point then is £167m (seems a reasonably figure, right?) and the club is worth £2bn. A debt of £750m will be feck all to the Glazers; quids in.

What they're not going to do on the other hand is take all our money to pay off the PIK's as soon as possible, starve the club of transfer funds and kill off our commercial attractiveness by reducing us to a state of European has-beens. Sure, by 2017 they'll have lessened the debt in comparison to the scenario above by £250m, but at what cost to EBITDA and the value of the club? They might have saved £250m but they've de-valued their asset across the board; the Asian markets are all supporting City and Madrid because we can't compete and our players are shit; we don't even reach the ECL anymore; sponsors don't want us, prize money's a thing of the past, EBITDA's stuck as it was seven years ago and the club's worth little more that it was at the turn of the decade. And there's still £500m worth of debt to take care of!

Which road would you choose?
 
:lol:

You have an incredibly inflated opinion of the regard I hold these little chats in.

I've just got back from a very nice holiday in the US and Canada, thank you very much.
It was nice to spent time with my family, but deep down I couldn't stop thinking about you.

I'll be upset if you came to Toronto and didn't send a PM. :(
 
My Uncle Joel has frozen them, what more do you want? Hair transplants don't come cheap you know!

He's cut them in real terms and I expect the same will happen next year too. I think we'll see a 2.5% average price increase (£1 per game rise) which at the current rate of inflation would mean a 0.5% price cut in real terms. Can't say fairer than that.
 
He's cut them in real terms and I expect the same will happen next year too. I think we'll see a 2.5% average price increase (£1 per game rise) which at the current rate of inflation would mean a 0.5% price cut in real terms. Can't say fairer than that.

I wouldn't have thought so.

The dynamics involved between developing the South Stand and the effect it would have on revenues and ticket prices (it is even conceivable that it could lead to a slight decrease in prices) and the effect any "boycott" might be having on all this is a discussion in itself.
 
:lol: fair enough...hope you enjoyed Canada.

I did, though it's feckin expensive with the current exchange rates!

I don't know about the Glazers, but I definitely do now owe about £160m.:(


Highlight in Toronto was finding ourselves outside the Air Canada centre on the night of the season opener against Montreal.
Walking under an underpass full of Leafs fans, the atmosphere was quite like the footy... especially once the wife and I started up with a full volume "U-N-I, T-E-D...."!:D
Might have tried to pick up a ticket off a tout if we didn't have the bairn with us, though God knows how much it would have cost.
 
Ok, good post. But i think you're making the mistake of presuming that the Glazers will want to have paid off the PIK notes by 2017, and also that they'll have to 'build us cash reserves to re-pay the bond holders in 2017'.

I think they will pay off the PIK debt because at 16.25% or even 15.25%, it's a real killer. You are right they can refinance the bond debt in 2017. The point is if they want £2 bn for their investment or close to it in 2017, and we are supposing this is the case, they'll need to repay a substantial portion of the debt - in fact most of it by then. I don't think this is possible whilst at the same time providing reasonably serious money for the team and with it allowing operating costs to increase, in order to stay competitive.

We'll see.
 
I think they will pay off the PIK debt because at 16.25% or even 15.25%, it's a real killer. You are right they can refinance the bond debt in 2017. The point is if they want £2 bn for their investment or close to it in 2017, and we are supposing this is the case, they'll need to repay a substantial portion of the debt - in fact most of it by then. I don't think this is possible whilst at the same time providing reasonably serious money for the team and with it allowing operating costs to increase, in order to stay competitive.

We'll see.

I don't think the Glazers will do a thing to reduce the senior debt now or in the future.

What you seem to be saying, in effect, is if they get £2bn but owe £500m then they only make £1.5bn but if they pay off £200m then they make £1.7bn so that is more profit (forget the simplicity of these figures for a moment, the principle remains the same).

I just don't believe that this is the way the Glazers work. Even with the interest on the debt, they still seem to be working on the basis that inflation can take care of the debt in the long term while capital is best used to grow the business in the short term.

I also don't believe they have any concrete plans to sell the club at the moment although this could change at any given moment if the right offer comes along.

They have been with the Buccs for 15 years and don't show any signs of leaving - why not the same with United?
 
I think they will pay off the PIK debt because at 16.25% or even 15.25%, it's a real killer. You are right they can refinance the bond debt in 2017. The point is if they want £2 bn for their investment or close to it in 2017, and we are supposing this is the case, they'll need to repay a substantial portion of the debt - in fact most of it by then. I don't think this is possible whilst at the same time providing reasonably serious money for the team and with it allowing operating costs to increase, in order to stay competitive.

We'll see.

Hmmm. Ok, if you were a member of the Glazer family, which would you prefer come 2017:

A club worth £2bn with £750m or debt?
(High EBITDA levels. High brand value. High overseas support. High commercial attractivity. High profits.)

or

A club worth £1.25bn with £500m of debt?
(Low EBITDA levels. Low brand value. Low overseas support. Low commercial attractivity. Low profits.)

You see the difference?

By starving the club of essential transfer funds they may have paid off the PIK notes by 2017 but will have severely neglected their primary asset in the process and then suffer accordingly.

But simply by paying as little as possible to keep the PIK's below £250m and providing good investment for the team they protect their primary asset and reap the considerable rewards further down the line.

I cannot put it more simply that that quite frankly.
 
Hmmm. Ok, if you were a member of the Glazer family, which would you prefer come 2017:

A club worth £2bn with £750m or debt?
(High EBITDA levels. High brand value. High overseas support. High commercial attractivity. High profits.)

or

A club worth £1.25bn with £500m of debt?
(Low EBITDA levels. Low brand value. Low overseas support. Low commercial attractivity. Low profits.)

You see the difference?

By starving the club of essential transfer funds they may have paid off the PIK notes by 2017 but will have severely neglected their primary asset in the process and then suffer accordingly.

But simply by paying as little as possible to keep the PIK's below £250m and providing good investment for the team they protect their primary asset and reap the considerable rewards further down the line.

I cannot put it more simply that that quite frankly.

You are assuming that they are interested in selling the club, if they are actually in it for the long term then they would be looking to pay off the PIKs as soon as feasible and afterwards they would be able to take the distributions afforded by the Bond issue for their own personal use.

As has been proven numerous times, heavy squad investment is not necessarily the key to success and as I've stated before, the biggest risk isn't a lack of investment, boycotts etc - it's the appointment of the next manager. Nothing is simple, hence why most forecasts will be incorrect, there are too many intangibles that you can't factor in.
 
You are assuming that they are interested in selling the club, if they are actually in it for the long term then they would be looking to pay off the PIKs as soon as feasible and afterwards they would be able to take the distributions afforded by the Bond issue for their own personal use.

As has been proven numerous times, heavy squad investment is not necessarily the key to success and as I've stated before, the biggest risk isn't a lack of investment, boycotts etc - it's the appointment of the next manager. Nothing is simple, hence why most forecasts will be incorrect, there are too many intangibles that you can't factor in.

I'm not assuming that they'll sell the club at all, in fact i don't think they will.

Take the two examples i've given above; one with squad investment and one without; and look at the profit margins come 2017:

Healthy squad
£160m EBITDA - £68m interest = £92m profit

Neglected squad
£100m EBITDA - £45m interest = £55m profit

So which would they more likely be aiming for?

If they do want to sell the club in 2017 then they're better off investing in the squad than paying off the PIK's.

If they want to keep the club in 2017 and earn from the profits then they're better off investing in the squad than paying off the PIK's.
 
I'm not assuming that they'll sell the club at all, in fact i don't think they will.

Take the two examples i've given above; one with squad investment and one without; and look at the profit margins come 2017:

Healthy squad
£160m EBITDA - £68m interest = £92m profit

Neglected squad
£100m EBITDA - £45m interest = £55m profit

So which would they likely be aiming for?

If they do want to sell the club in 2017 then they're better off investing in the squad than paying off the PIK's.

If they want to keep the club in 2017 and earn from the profits then they're better off investing in the squad than paying off the PIK's.

I don't know where you got your figures from so can't really comment. However it is worth noting that they can't take any money out of United until they get the PIKs paid off.

Most analysts have reasoned that they will start to pay off the PIKs in the current year and the bond issue allowed them to do that so it seems fairly certain that they will, the only issue is the timing.

Re transfers, they could make a net spend of c£60m in the summer, but the actual cash outflow would be less due to the stage payments in most transfer deals.
 
I'm not assuming that they'll sell the club at all, in fact i don't think they will.

Take the two examples i've given above; one with squad investment and one without; and look at the profit margins come 2017:

Healthy squad
£160m EBITDA - £68m interest = £92m profit

Neglected squad
£100m EBITDA - £45m interest = £55m profit

So which would they more likely be aiming for?

If they do want to sell the club in 2017 then they're better off investing in the squad than paying off the PIK's.

If they want to keep the club in 2017 and earn from the profits then they're better off investing in the squad than paying off the PIK's.

You're going with that then are you cider? You reckon they'll lump some of the PIKs onto the main debt at the end of the term?
 
I don't know where you got your figures from so can't really comment. However it is worth noting that they can't take any money out of United until they get the PIKs paid off.

Most analysts have reasoned that they will pay off the PIKs in the current year and the bond issue allowed them to do that so it seems fairly certain that they will, the only issue is the timing.

Re transfers, they could make a net spend of c£60m in the summer, but the actual cash outflow would be less due to the stage payments in most transfer deals.

My figures are based largely on my own crude guesswork, working off the theory that a club with a healthy squad will continue to increase in value across the board whilst a club with a neglected squad will stagnate.

In 2017 the PIK's will no longer exist if we assume that they'll re-finance the whole debt (Bonds + PIK's) as one.

I agree with most analysts, the Glazers will use the £70m carve-out very soon, they have to imo unless they have another source of income.

The PIK's stabilised, i predict then that the Glazers will neglect to take any dividends and concentrate firmly on squad investment.

Over the following six years i'd expect only enough to be taken out in dividends to keep the PIK's below £250m come 2017, with continued and healthy squad investment being a priority.

This is how i see them making the most profit from the club and so this is what i believe they'll aim for.
 
My figures are based largely on my own crude guesswork, working off the theory that a club with a healthy squad will continue to increase in value across the board whilst a club with a neglected squad will stagnate.

In 2017 the PIK's will no longer exist if we assume that they'll re-finance the whole debt (Bonds + PIK's) as one.

I agree with most analysts, the Glazers will use the £70m carve-out very soon, they have to imo unless they have another source of income.

The PIK's stabilised, i predict then that the Glazers will neglect to take any dividends and concentrate firmly on squad investment.

Over the following six years i'd expect only enough to be taken out in dividends to keep the PIK's below £250m come 2017, with continued and healthy squad investment being a priority.

This is how i see them making the most profit from the club and so this is what i believe they'll aim for.

I think they'll still take the dividends. I don't see why they would refinance for £750m as it isn't freeing up any cash, it's just moving the debt from one company to another.

If they paid the PIKs off then they could then refinance for £750m and take out the additional £250m if the terms allowed it.
 
You're going with that then are you cider? You reckon they'll lump some of the PIKs onto the main debt at the end of the term?

Maybe. Or maybe they'll re-finance them seperately. Either way i don't think they'll bother trying to pay them off before 2017 at the cost of neglecting their primary asset. They'll pay the £70m carve-out and then let the PIK's roll back up to £250m whilst they concentrate on maximising United's revenues.
 
I think they'll still take the dividends. I don't see why they would refinance for £750m as it isn't freeing up any cash, it's just moving the debt from one company to another.

If they paid the PIKs off then they could then refinance for £750m and take out the additional £250m if the terms allowed it.

For what it's worth, deleveraging an LBO using cash flow and then releveraging to withdraw equity is the well trodden, textbook even, way of making money from LBOs. The only other way to pocket serious money is too sell....

I've written something similar on here before, but if they can use dividends to eliminate the PIKs, grow EBITDA at (say) 8% per annum to 2017 so it rises to £172m and refinance at 5x EBITDA (total debt of £864m) then they can repay the £520m bond and pocket £344m in a dividend recap.

That's the theory of LBOs.

Edit: TMRD you have pm
 
@ GCHQ & cider - I have just been for a bath because it's true, Eureka moments happen in the bath.

I feel a bit of an idiot now because of what I was saying earlier about the cashflow situation.

For some stupid reason, I was working on the basis that we have £200million to play with this season when it is actually the current cash balance of £163million PLUS whatever revenues we generate this next season (£290m?).

A grand total of around £450million - more than enough to handle the normal everyday running of the club, pay whatever the Glazers take AND leave a decent transfer kitty.

What a plank. :(
 
For what it's worth, deleveraging an LBO using cash flow and then releveraging to withdraw equity is the well trodden, textbook even, way of making money from LBOs. The only other way to pocket serious money is too sell....

I've written something similar on here before, but if they can use dividends to eliminate the PIKs, grow EBITDA at (say) 8% per annum to 2017 so it rises to £172m and refinance at 5x EBITDA (total debt of £864m) then they can repay the £520m bond and pocket £344m in a dividend recap.

That's the theory of LBOs.

Edit: TMRD you have pm

But what about the chap from Schecter & Co? The CEO and founder Stephen Schecter himself was reported as saying the following to Bloomberg:

Schechter said United is paying “lip service” to deleveraging, or reducing reliance on debt. “I don’t believe they are deleveraging at all,” he said.
 
But what about the chap from Schecter & Co? The CEO and founder Stephen Schecter himself was reported as saying the following to Bloomberg:

I read that and thought "he either means the senior secured debt or he hasn't look at the cap structure."
 
My Uncle Joel has frozen them, what more do you want? Hair transplants don't come cheap you know!

He's cut them in real terms and I expect the same will happen next year too. I think we'll see a 2.5% average price increase (£1 per game rise) which at the current rate of inflation would mean a 0.5% price cut in real terms. Can't say fairer than that.
In one season. It certainly doesn't make up for the five seasons previous.

Hmmm. Ok, if you were a member of the Glazer family, which would you prefer come 2017:

A club worth £2bn with £750m or debt?
(High EBITDA levels. High brand value. High overseas support. High commercial attractivity. High profits.)

or

A club worth £1.25bn with £500m of debt?
(Low EBITDA levels. Low brand value. Low overseas support. Low commercial attractivity. Low profits.)

You see the difference?

By starving the club of essential transfer funds they may have paid off the PIK notes by 2017 but will have severely neglected their primary asset in the process and then suffer accordingly.

But simply by paying as little as possible to keep the PIK's below £250m and providing good investment for the team they protect their primary asset and reap the considerable rewards further down the line.

I cannot put it more simply that that quite frankly.

cider, what do you do for a living fella?

Only that crystal ball must have taken one hell of a battering to be able to pull numbers like that together. Plenty of assumptions too.
 
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