Afghanistan

[Sultan]

pretty sure he got less votes than clinton... FPTP strikes again (in 2016 there was 55.8% turnout and 46.1% of votes went to trump so 25.68% of Americans (above the voting age) voted for him .... lets say 1 in 4 so not really a majority)

If you look at it in that context the idea of democracy is flawed.

 

[Sultan]

Everyone's a Afghan thesedays.

Yes, just as everyone became experts on Islam after 9/11

 

[The Firestarter]

Anyone else getting the feeling that this so called 'fall of Afghanistan' was pre planned between the ex government , Talib, and US? But not everyone was on the same timetable , and the entry into Kabul happened earlier than the US was told it will happen. There are now reports of secret meetings in Serbia, between the taliban and the ex government , for the last couple of years.

 

[Sultan]

Of course. Pakistan need to counter the idea of a Pashtunistan (which other Afghan governments along traditional cleavage would support) and to destabilise India. It was win win for them. Although I'm not sure if you can say "Pakistan" right now. Perhaps "ISI" is more accurate? Power structures there are opaque.

Pakistan has no design to become Pashtunistan, the reality is different on the ground. There's generally a rivalry between the Pathans and Punjab. Pathans are also a minority.

 

[Spoony]

Yes, just as everyone became experts on Islam after 9/11

Yes. I think we've got to be careful as well...there's a very complex game being played by all sides, no saints just realpolitik...it seems there are winners and losers but how that will pan out in the future we'll have to wait and see. China are the biggest winners - they'll keep expanding quietly, Pakistan can look to stabilise - potentially no more proxy attacks...and even the US have got ridden of a nightmare. Does seem to me that there's a split, the likes of US, UK, India et al on one size and China, Russia, Pakistan, Iran etc on the other. I also wonder how the US will come out of it.

 

[Maticmaker]

When one side is victorious in a bloody conflict and 'crosses the field', then you can expect the blood-letting/revenge killing to continue, until the 'berserker madness' or (if you prefer) 'heat of battle' has passed. That is why so many people, both combatants and non-combatants want to flee Afghanistan, immediately... sadly this is a true example of the horrors of war and it is unveiling before our eyes.

Perhaps a mark of how willing the Taliban are to change will be how quickly they put an end to this chapter of blood-letting

 

[Sky1981]

I'm sure China increasingly calculates that there's a limited appetite among the US public to sink lives and money into a defence of Taiwan, and events like this just proves it. The question isn't how high a price china pays, it's how high a price an isolationist america would be willing to pay.

China has no interest in bombing taiwan. That only comes from the western propaganda.

The chinese are greedy for trade, they're not stupid. Weak america strong america a fight against america is the last thing they would have wanted. The current status quo benefits china with their BRI policy, why would they risk an open war they cannot win? They're not stupid. The only party that wants a war with china is the US, for her own ulterior motives.

If they're really hostile towards taiwan all the do is stop pinnaple trade and other trade channel and taiwan would be done in a short period. Check taiwan biggest trade partner, it's not the US.



Top 15

• China: US$103.1 billion (29.7% of Taiwan's total exports)
• United States: $50.9 billion (14.7%)
• Hong Kong: $49.3 billion (14.2%)
• Japan: $23.5 billion (6.8%)
• Singapore: $19.2 billion (5.5%)
• South Korea: $15.2 billion (4.4%)
• Vietnam: $10.6 billion (3%)
• Malaysia: $9.5 billion (2.7%)

 

[Spoony]

China has no interest in bombing taiwan. That only comes from the western propaganda.

The chinese are greedy for trade, they're not stupid. Weak america strong america a fight against america is the last thing they would have wanted. The current status quo benefits china with their BRI policy, why would they risk an open war they cannot win? They're not stupid. The only party that wants a war with china is the US, for her own ulterior motives.

If they're really hostile towards taiwan all the do is stop pinnaple trade and other trade channel and taiwan would be done in a short period. Check taiwan biggest trade partner, it's not the US.



Top 15

• China: US$103.1 billion (29.7% of Taiwan's total exports)
• United States: $50.9 billion (14.7%)
• Hong Kong: $49.3 billion (14.2%)
• Japan: $23.5 billion (6.8%)
• Singapore: $19.2 billion (5.5%)
• South Korea: $15.2 billion (4.4%)
• Vietnam: $10.6 billion (3%)
• Malaysia: $9.5 billion (2.7%)

Chinese are winning wars without lifting fingers.

 

[Sky1981]

Anyone else getting the feeling that this so called 'fall of Afghanistan' was pre planned between the ex government , Talib, and US? But not everyone was on the same timetable , and the entry into Kabul happened earlier than the US was told it will happen. There are now reports of secret meetings in Serbia, between the taliban and the ex government , for the last couple of years.

I wouldn't be surprised. Rome isnt built on a day. Even the sales of sancho took months of talk before the actual signing.

And yes. The Taliban, CIA, pakistan, India, russia, china, all talk behind everyone's back. Alliances and tit for tat are being offered around. You dont make such a big decision without at least having a talk with these players.

There's nothing extraordinary about this.

 

[nickm]

China has no interest in bombing taiwan. That only comes from the western propaganda.

The chinese are greedy for trade, they're not stupid. Weak america strong america a fight against america is the last thing they would have wanted. The current status quo benefits china with their BRI policy, why would they risk an open war they cannot win? They're not stupid. The only party that wants a war with china is the US, for her own ulterior motives.

If they're really hostile towards taiwan all the do is stop pinnaple trade and other trade channel and taiwan would be done in a short period. Check taiwan biggest trade partner, it's not the US.



Top 15

• China: US$103.1 billion (29.7% of Taiwan's total exports)
• United States: $50.9 billion (14.7%)
• Hong Kong: $49.3 billion (14.2%)
• Japan: $23.5 billion (6.8%)
• Singapore: $19.2 billion (5.5%)
• South Korea: $15.2 billion (4.4%)
• Vietnam: $10.6 billion (3%)
• Malaysia: $9.5 billion (2.7%)

This is such an unthinking take. Their stated policy is reunification and they are investing in the capabilities to achieve it. So you take it seriously. Chinas interest in trade is a means to an end, not the end itself.

This idea it's western propaganda misses what's actually being said and done in China itself. And on trade, I wouldn't read too much into that - do you know who Germany's biggest trade partners were on the eve of world War one? Britain and Russia.

Nobody wants a war with China, nuclear powers do not tend to pick direct fights with each other. Where on earth do you get that idea from?

 

[Beachryan]

Not sure how many freebies you can get at the Atlantic, but thought this was good (https://www.theatlantic.com/ideas/archive/2021/08/america-afghanistan-women/619828/).

It's on the impact of the US' presence on women. Thought this was staggering: " Female life expectancy rose from 58 years in 2002 to 66 years in 2018."

Also features this epic paragraph: "In the next few days, another girl foolish enough to think she can keep going to school will take another bullet to the head, and when that happens, the left is going to lose its mind. Dianne Feinstein is going to be very disappointed in the Taliban, and she is going to use America’s voice to give them an earful. Melinda Gates and MacKenzie Scott will go 12 rounds in Madison Square Garden to determine which one of them gets to fund girls’ education in Afghan refugee camps. The winner will fund beautiful schools—air-conditioned, STEM-centered schools. And there might even be time for the winner to private-jet herself to the Aspen Ideas Festival to explain the importance of girls’ education before those schools are blown up, along with the girls inside them."

 

[Maticmaker]

There's nothing extraordinary about this.

Judging by the relative lack of 'chatter' emanating from the major capitals of the world, you are probably right!

 

[The Firestarter]

Not sure how many freebies you can get at the Atlantic, but thought this was good (https://www.theatlantic.com/ideas/archive/2021/08/america-afghanistan-women/619828/).

It's on the impact of the US' presence on women. Thought this was staggering: " Female life expectancy rose from 58 years in 2002 to 66 years in 2018."

Also features this epic paragraph: "In the next few days, another girl foolish enough to think she can keep going to school will take another bullet to the head, and when that happens, the left is going to lose its mind. Dianne Feinstein is going to be very disappointed in the Taliban, and she is going to use America’s voice to give them an earful. Melinda Gates and MacKenzie Scott will go 12 rounds in Madison Square Garden to determine which one of them gets to fund girls’ education in Afghan refugee camps. The winner will fund beautiful schools—air-conditioned, STEM-centered schools. And there might even be time for the winner to private-jet herself to the Aspen Ideas Festival to explain the importance of girls’ education before those schools are blown up, along with the girls inside them."

Also this

Last year in this magazine, Barack Obama made what has got to be one of the most astonishing statements ever offered by a former president: “I’m not yet ready to abandon the possibility of America.” That was fast. What happened to “In no other country on Earth is my story even possible”?

 

[Sultan]

Perhaps a mark of how willing the Taliban are to change will be how quickly they put an end to this chapter of blood-letting

The problem in Afghanistan is differentiating many different groups opposed to each other. Each group will just blame the other. The blame game will be rampant.

 

[owlo]

Pakistan has no design to become Pashtunistan, the reality is different on the ground. There's generally a rivalry between the Pathans and Punjab. Pathans are also a minority.

Not to become, but to prevent a breakaway state of Pashtunistan.

 

[shamans]

Not sure how many freebies you can get at the Atlantic, but thought this was good (https://www.theatlantic.com/ideas/archive/2021/08/america-afghanistan-women/619828/).

It's on the impact of the US' presence on women. Thought this was staggering: " Female life expectancy rose from 58 years in 2002 to 66 years in 2018."

Also features this epic paragraph: "In the next few days, another girl foolish enough to think she can keep going to school will take another bullet to the head, and when that happens, the left is going to lose its mind. Dianne Feinstein is going to be very disappointed in the Taliban, and she is going to use America’s voice to give them an earful. Melinda Gates and MacKenzie Scott will go 12 rounds in Madison Square Garden to determine which one of them gets to fund girls’ education in Afghan refugee camps. The winner will fund beautiful schools—air-conditioned, STEM-centered schools. And there might even be time for the winner to private-jet herself to the Aspen Ideas Festival to explain the importance of girls’ education before those schools are blown up, along with the girls inside them."

The guys who shot a bullet in malalas head were ttp a totally different faction.

It's not surprising how terrible some of the wests reporting has been on some of this.

 

[shamans]

Not to become, but to prevent a breakaway state of Pashtunistan.

The chances of a breakaway pashtunistan is probably as much as a breakaway state of Texas forming. Little to none.

 

[Foxbatt]

No need to concede any point vis a vis India. There is no credible evidence that India promoted "terrorism" against Pak interests in AFG. It's all fake news and propaganda spread by ISI and lapped up by their madrassa-educated populace. All of the South Asian terrorism in actuality emanates from Pakistan and one of the major outcomes from this war is that most of the world now recognizes this, further cementing Pakistan's status as a pariah bordering on failed state.

Yes Pakistan is involved in some of these for sure as everyone knows. But India was responsible for the most successful terrorist organization in the world at one time. The same terrorists were treated in Indian hospitals while the Indian Army was fighting them.
Probably the same in Pakistan too. While the Pakistani military is fighting them ISI is supporting the terrorists.

 

[Sky1981]

This is such an unthinking take. Their stated policy is reunification and they are investing in the capabilities to achieve it. So you take it seriously. Chinas interest in trade is a means to an end, not the end itself.

This idea it's western propaganda misses what's actually being said and done in China itself. And on trade, I wouldn't read too much into that - do you know who Germany's biggest trade partners were on the eve of world War one? Britain and Russia.

Nobody wants a war with China, nuclear powers do not tend to pick direct fights with each other. Where on earth do you get that idea from?

Reunification yes. But not by military.

Taiwan is just an island, with a population china never needs. A land china has in abundance. No natural resources that they need. It's just a symbolic long lost brother and sentimentality. What taiwan offers economically dwarfed by one of their big cities.

China wants to unite taiwan just like korea wants a reunification because of history and sentimentil value. There's no point reunificating korea if it's by force. You get a lifetime arch nemesis on your border.

Practicality wise as long as taiwan doesnt allow US forces to build a base over there a military invasion is the last thing they'd have in mind.

There's no point of reunification if it's achieved by military. Which will never happen once chine bombed taiwan.

There's off course posturing and show of force every once in a while, but a total invasion? That's like cutting your face to spite a mole.

The china taiwan threat is made by the US to force taiwan to buy their obsolete military gear, and to become a thorn in china side.

Like it or hate it the american hegemony is threatened by the rise of china and they'll do anything to stop it. By hook or by crook. And the world will bear the cost again ecomically if the 2 giant comes to a war. China's biggest threat is not military, the US can deal with that and every other nation attacked by china in conventional ways would play right into the US hand and will become an excuse for a real war. As much as china has developed the last century a war with US is a war they can't win.

The world are so entangled with china and US that no country will not be affected by a china-US war. The dollar, the trade, the product, the aftermath of such war is unthinkable. And I'm not even talking about a full scale nuclear war. If we Indonesians are forced to pick a side we'd be crushed economically even if we dont join the war. Half of our daily goods comes from china and the other part of the funding and banking relies on USD. We'd be fecked either way.

But i can understand from the US side that it's their survival on the table, with rising deficit, petrodollar hegemony, BRI where they are not included in. It's a ticking time bomb. The day the world doesnt rely on US dollar is the day they feared the most as we all know they're living on borrowed money and the US dollar is the sole reason for their hegemony.

 

[shamans]

Yes Pakistan is involved in some of these for sure as everyone knows. But India was responsible for the most successful terrorist organization in the world at one time. The same terrorists were treated in Indian hospitals while the Indian Army was fighting them.
Probably the same in Pakistan too. While the Pakistani military is fighting them ISI is supporting the terrorists.

@sport2793 is probably playing here. Any basic awareness of geopolitics and it's obvious Pakistan India Afghanistan America Iran are all funding someone or another.

 

[Sultan]

Not to become, but to prevent a breakaway state of Pashtunistan.

Is that in jest?

 

[Raoul]

@sport2793 is probably playing here. Any basic awareness of geopolitics and it's obvious Pakistan India Afghanistan America Iran are all funding someone or another.

Yes, everyone seems to be funding someone else.

 

[shamans]

Yes, everyone seems to be funding someone else.

And this is how it keeps happening too. Each country justifies it as "self defense" and protecting their own interests because the other is funding another. At this point finding out "who started" would be an impossible task, maybe not even definable.

that's why sometimes it's important to just have these "peace talks" to put an end to it.

 

[esmufc07]

Heartbreaking

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[Foxbatt]

@sport2793 is probably playing here. Any basic awareness of geopolitics and it's obvious Pakistan India Afghanistan America Iran are all funding someone or another.

Not sure how much India is involved in Afghanistan. Certainly they are but not to the extent of Pakistan. India was involved extremely heavily in Sri Lanka.

 

[VP]

Not sure how much India is involved in Afghanistan. Certainly they are but not to the extent of Pakistan. India was involved extremely heavily in Sri Lanka.

Yea it's madness to suggest India is as culpable as either Pakistan or the USA in this mess.

 

[shamans]

Yea it's madness to suggest India is as culpable as either Pakistan or the USA in this mess.

I don't think India or Pakistan are as involved in what is happening now.

India had however heavily funded the ghani/karzai government so they were definitely involved in maintaining the puppet leaders but of course that's not terrorist funding.

I think funding terrorism right now on both India and Pakistans side is limited to each other. Latest one was the attack on Chinese.

 

[2cents]

The only notable faction shelling Kabul was Hetmatyar (And later Mazari who joined him

I’ll quote this very detailed report (the relevant pages are 61- 81, and 79-80 give a partial list of attacks).

While Hizb-i Islami is frequently named as foremost among the factions responsible for the deaths and destruction in the bombardment of Kabul, it was not the only perpetrator of these violations. All of the major armed factions who were contending for control of the city were responsible for the indiscriminate use of a full range of heavy weapons, causing destruction and casualties in civilian areas

There was no 'various factions turning on each other' - most were attempting to find solutions (solutions that even included appearing Hekmatyar) . The other sides were essentially unified

Nobody is suggesting that every faction fought against every other faction at some point. But I think it’s a greater misrepresentation of the civil war period to portray it as ‘Hekmatyar -v- everyone else’ than it is to state “the various factions turned on each other”. Your own timeline includes the Sayyaf-Mazari clashes of May/June 1992 which dragged in other actors (e.g. Massoud shelling West Kabul in July); Mazari’s flip to Hekmatyar; and the Afshar Offensive. It also ends before Dostum flipped to Hekmatyar in 1994 and went to war with Massoud, and other stuff such as Massoud’s March 1995 campaign against Mazari. (Interestingly, in allying with Sayyaf, Massoud was allying with the only explicitly Salafi mujahidin commander, and the one with by far the closest links to Saudi Arabia, the Arab Afghans, and bin Laden).

It's a specific bad actor responsible

I think most people recognize that Hekmatyar was probably the most ruthless and brutal of the commanders (quite an achievement in a field including Dostum) and responsible for most of the destruction in Kabul. An acknowledgment of other factors doesn’t necessarily imply an attempt to minimize or ignore this. However from this and other discussions in this thread, I get the sense that you object to any assessment of the history which produced the Taliban that doesn’t explicitly limit itself to an exclusive focus on Hekmatyar and the ISI.

(in addition to the above report, I’d also cite this HRW report -https://www.hrw.org/reports/2005/afghanistan0605/4.htm)

 

[Sky1981]

Does taliban even have a unified chain of command that can restrict atrocities in kabul?

The few leaders they have might agree on some broad terms but i doubt they have an effective strict chain of discipline that official army ussually have.

And for what its worth it's hard to contain 20 years of resentment and the need to exact revenge. Situation reversed i dont think any parties could have fully restrain their part from committing war crimes. Although probably in a less brutal and less massive

 

[Foxbatt]

This whole thing makes Axterix comics clear and understanding. It was only Gauls fighting everyone. Visigoths fighting the Ostrogoths and Romans trying to control all of them.
Afghanistan is really complicated compared to this.

 

[Foxbatt]

Does taliban even have a unified chain of command that can restrict atrocities in kabul?

The few leaders they have might agree on some broad terms but i doubt they have an effective strict chain of discipline that official army ussually have.

And for what its worth it's hard to contain 20 years of resentment and the need to exact revenge. Situation reversed i dont think any parties could have fully restrain their part from committing war crimes. Although probably in a less brutal and less massive

Trust me they will start infighting and the best thing for everyone else is not to get involved. But knowing all the parties, the ISI, the CIA and the Indians would get involved heavily in the infighting.

 

[pratyush_utd]

Not sure how much India is involved in Afghanistan. Certainly they are but not to the extent of Pakistan. India was involved extremely heavily in Sri Lanka.

India is involved in development project and has invested 3 billion dollars in Afghanistan redevelopment project. Probably the only country which actually build something in Afghanistan. We learnt our lesson from Sri Lanka of getting involved. But unsubstantiated accusations have always been made about Indian Spies but it is coming from highly unreliable ISI so it's safe to say the involvement is mostly overstated.


https://indianexpress.com/article/explained/explained-indias-afghan-investment-7406795/

Taliban coming back is huge blow because civilian government ( although not the one which was there which India always had reservations against but had no choice) is what works best for India's interest. Taliban works for Pakistan in short term because it stops all development projects, send it back to medieval ages and give China a space so that it can trap it also in debt.

 

[Spoony]

Suhail Shaheen said a few days ago... they know of India's role and that they won't allow anyone to use Afghan soil to launch attacks on neighbouring countries. I've also read they've halted trade import and exports to India.

 

[sport2793]

I'm sure China increasingly calculates that there's a limited appetite among the US public to sink lives and money into a defence of Taiwan, and events like this just proves it. The question isn't how high a price china pays, it's how high a price an isolationist america would be willing to pay.

They would be calculating wrong then, many people here see China as a threat and enemy.

 

[nickm]

They would be calculating wrong then, many people here see China as a threat and enemy.

Yeah, but what's Taiwan to the average US citizen on the street?

 

[The Firestarter]

Yeah, but what's Taiwan to the average US citizen on the street?

What was Kuwait for the average citizen?

 

[Don't Kill Bill]

Yeah, but what's Taiwan to the average US citizen on the street?

It is a democracy.

I bet, watching China attack Taiwan, would make make it very important to the average US citizen.

 

[mu4c_20le]

It is a democracy.

I bet, watching China attack Taiwan, would make make it very important to the average US citizen.

I'm sure they'll tweet furiously about it. But unless it hits American lives or assets, not sure there will be much support for military intervention.

 

[Raoul]

Does taliban even have a unified chain of command that can restrict atrocities in kabul?

The few leaders they have might agree on some broad terms but i doubt they have an effective strict chain of discipline that official army ussually have.

And for what its worth it's hard to contain 20 years of resentment and the need to exact revenge. Situation reversed i dont think any parties could have fully restrain their part from committing war crimes. Although probably in a less brutal and less massive

There is communication between the top levels and the "commanders" in Kabul, which is probably keeping things from getting out of control. Many of the foot soldier Taliban fighters walking around are illiterate and generally more interested in doing Taliban type stuff - like whipping and flogging people for breaking their rules and settling old scores with people they suspect of having worked for Americans. The important bit is that they haven't tried to attack US forces, as that would cause a massive retaliation and result in a lot of casualties.

 

[berbatrick]

retconning the invasion of afghanistan, a 9/11 revenge mission, into a primarily feminist project:

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Whereas, on September 11, 2001, acts of treacherous violence were committed against the United States and its citizens; and
Whereas, such acts render it both necessary and appropriate that the United States exercise its rights to self-defense and to protect United States citizens both at home and abroad; and Whereas, in light of the threat to the national security and foreign policy of the United States posed by these grave acts of violence; and Whereas, such acts continue to pose an unusual and extraordinary threat to the national security and foreign policy of the United States; and
Whereas, the President has authority under the Constitution to take action to deter and prevent acts of international terrorism against the United States:
Now, therefore, be it Resolved by the Senate and House of Representatives of the United States of America in Congress assembled, SECTION 1. SHORT TITLE.
This joint resolution may be cited as the ‘‘Authorization for Use of Military Force’’.