Afghanistan

Nice, simplified historical breakdown of Afghanistan’s conflicts from 1973-2001 (thread):




"The Taliban that emerged circa 1994 were indeed founded by leaders who participated in the Soviet war, but they were not major elements. Also, most of the rank-and-file fighters came from refugee camps in Pakistan. "


This tweet is erm.... suspect to say the least? Taliban emergence was a direct result of the ISI's loss of faith in Hekmatyar, and Hezb-e-Islami camps/militias were overtly folded into it.
 
It's a very long/complex story that likely @2cents or @Raoul could enunciate better than I.


Once the Soviets withdrew in 1989~ the Mujuhadin commanders kept poking, but the Afghan army held on until the USSR collapsed (Absolute proof that an Afghan army COULD have worked in this situation, if it had been done right). When the USSR collapsed in 1992, the 2 main Northern Alliance (or well, commanders from the Northern Militia) Dostum and Massoud moved south past Bagram to the gates of Kabul. They then started negotiating transition. Meanwhile Hekmatyar moved up from the South and invaded, wanting to become the absolute ruler/dictator of Afghanistan. Massoud and Dostum forced his hand, and basically that started years of civil war.

You had many actors, but a few stood out:

Hekmatyar - A southern warlord deeply in love with Bin Laden/Al Quaeda. Extremely repressive of women and modernity. Brutal as feck. Leader of HIG faction. Mainly funded by pakistan, the ISI, and many analysts consider it to actually be/have been an arm of the ISI. By 1994 it had essentially morphed into the Taliban and Al Quaeda. Some contend that around 1994 the ISI were fed up and simply switched sides to supporting the Taliban, but a lot of the evidence shows a tacit 'transfer' to the Taliban. Their training camps certainly became Taliban ones without conflict. Hekmatyar himself basically alligned with the Taliban post 94, though he wasn't particularly relevant for a while. Since 2001 he's been actively supporting both Taliban and Al Quaeda forces. He had no problem trying to sideline/kill other factions, and showed no loyalty to anybody except Bin Laden. He is still alive and trying to be part of the interim government now.

Massoud - a northern warlord and leader of Jamiat-e Islami. The strongest and most respected of the Mujuhadin, hailing from the North. Always hated by Hekmatyar, and especially Bin-Laden, even from the times of fighting the Soviets. He managed to build a complex network of alliances back in the war against the soviets, and despite lack of funding (The USA preferred to fund through Pakistan, who as above supported Hekmatyar) was by far the most successful of the commanders. He also had many foreign people (Mostly muslims) come to the Jihad against the soviets. Massoud was also alarmingly moderate, signing many declarations of women and human rights etc. Post Soviet Invasion he kept up the insurgency until 1992, leadng to him being at the gates of Kabul as above. He was assassinated 2 days before 9/11 by [assassins funded by] Al Quaeda/Taliban.

Dostum - Another northern Alliance commander, who fought with Massoud against the soviets, and marched with him to Kabul from the north in 92. He then withdrew after defending from Hekmatyar and basically formed his own little country in Mazar, until the Taliban came knocking. He then fought with Massoud again as part of a Northern Alliance against the Taliban; some shenanigans ensued, and he fled to Turkey. Quite moderate in attitude. All of Mazar was.

Ismail Khan - Another northern Alliance commander, who fought with Massoud against the soviets. From Herat. Captured by the Taliban but escaped in 1999. Quite a hardliner and definitely more 'warlord' than anything else. Respected but also feared.

Taliban - Basically born from HIG, funded nurtured by the ISI. The new post Hekmatyar solution for Pakistan and other Arab agencies who wanted hardliners in control. Designed to defeat and crush those like Massoud. Impossible to separate them from AQ, as it was essentially an autonomous wing of the Taliban.


.... So this Civil war raged until 1996, when the Taliban essentially took control of all of Afghanistan, with the exception of the North and Northeast which stayed under the command of Dostum and Massoud. Massoud then created the UF/United front/Northern alliance against them in resistance, which resisted against the Taliban (funded by Iran/India/etc etc. India became very important for funding later) - By 1999 Massoud and Abdul Haq looked further afield, bringing together a bigger and bigger cross factional alliance ready to stand against the Taliban. They reached out to everybody, and everybody was aware of them, from Bush to Jerusalem to Berlin. Anti Taliban sentiment within Afghanistan is reaching an all time high, even in the Pashtun tribes. The situation just needs sparked.

In early 2001 he presented to the European Parliament this alliance, whilst warning Bush about an impending major attack that year against them. He says that Taliban/Al Quaeda in Afghanistan present a bad perception of Islam. He posits that without the Pakistani support and with humanitarian aid, he can take back Afghanistan. The US were too busy appeasing Pakistan, and funding the Taliban through them.

Anyway, 2 days before 9/11 he is assassinated by Bin Laden/Taliban funded assets from Europe. Then the invasion and the situation we have now.

ps. His son and some CIA assets/ Afghani Special Forces/Other assets have kicked off a new 'United Front' against the Taliban as of 3 days ago. Yet to see if it can be at all effective. The son is not the father.

Some things I’d qualify there off the top of my head - Hekmatyar didn’t throw in with the Taliban until after 9/11. He was ousted from Kabul by the Taliban in 1996 and went into exile in Iran (Massoud actually gave him refuge briefly on the way). Certainly many of his men defected to the Taliban as the latter took the country in the 90s, but the Taliban’s rank and file were originally drawn from different sources (primarily madrassas).

Dostum didn’t fight against the Soviets, he was in the Communist camp in the 80s until 1992 when he flipped.

Massoud faction was never as strong or powerful as Hekmatyar in the 80s. More generally I’d be a bit wary of romanticizing Massoud too much. He was charismatic, good-looking, accessible, and had some knowledge of Western ways. Obviously he was an excellent military commander. None of these things necessarily means he was the answer to Afghanistan’s problems.
 
Yeah all fair points.

Maybe a good summary would be we succeeded in dismantling terror camps but pretty much failed in nation building and I think nation building was a bigger task than anticipated and not worth the dollars.

The china model seems to be a smarter way to go about it. See china literally tortures Muslims in xinxiang and then goes about investing in other Muslim countries building infrastructure which makes them trust the Chinese way more.

But then, China has a geographic advantage in doing that. There is just nothing of importance for America in terms of geopolitics in Afghanistan. If they even try to build up an foreign invasion army or anything or the like, America knows as well as taliban they'll get bombed back to zero just like in 2001.

Yeah agree. I think America becoming more isolationist is significant as it’s a void which will partly be filled by Russia and China who are hostile to most of the West and don’t run democracies themselves.

It is interesting/disheartening that the fact the Chinese are committing genocide against a subset of their own Muslim population isn’t seen as enough of a blocker for Muslim countries to refrain from dealing with them. They are so powerful though and the only really alternative to the US.

Think Europe (inc. UK) needs to practice working more collectively together on defence and international policy going forward.
 
Some things I’d qualify there off the top of my head - Hekmatyar didn’t throw in with the Taliban until after 9/11. He was ousted from Kabul by the Taliban in 1996 and went into exile in Iran (Massoud actually gave him refuge briefly on the way). Certainly many of his men defected to the Taliban as the latter took the country in the 90s, but the Taliban’s rank and file were originally drawn from different sources (primarily madrassas).

Dostum didn’t fight against the Soviets, he was in the Communist camp in the 80s until 1992 when he flipped.

Massoud faction was never as strong or powerful as Hekmatyar in the 80s. More generally I’d be a bit wary of romanticizing Massoud too much. He was charismatic, good-looking, accessible, and had some knowledge of Western ways. Obviously he was an excellent military commander. None of these things necessarily means he was the answer to Afghanistan’s problems.

- Edit: Fixed. I probably should have made that about HIG. Confused myself.
- Aye that's correct, I should update
- Disagree. It's possibly for another thread, but he was by far the most influential power broker politically in 96-01 afghanistan, and arguably far stronger than HIG against the soviets.
 
instead of sending enough troops to tell the 'terrorists' to feck off.
Terrorism comes in many disguises. Ask the people of Afghanistan and Iraq and they'll tell you terrorists were not always brown, bearded and Muslim. Do you want the US/friends to spend another 20 years achieving nothing?
 
How desperate must you be to clutch on to the wheels of a plane that's going to fly just so you can escape the death and hopelessness on the ground? Heartbreaking.
 
A thing that cringes me to my soul actually is that people in Western countries are looking at this news and their immediate impulse is to worry about Afghan refugees coming to their countries. How the F*** can you see all the terror in that country and the fear in the people there and turn it into yoúr problem and making yoúr country the victim here?! The lack of emphathy and huminaty baffles me honestly..
There is an election coming up in Norway and the leader of the most prominent far right party here made just that point in a debate last night. Sickening.
Biggest disgrace for me in this whole debacle.
The concept of interventionism and "nation building" in Afghanistan had been deligitimized for me for years, to see everything fall together so quickly has been surprising but doesn't come as a shock for everyone who even slightly followed the developments.
But the massive failure of even saving a tiny part of the poor people who were forced into this situation to begin with due to "optics of not wanting a PR disaster about abandoning Afghanistan" (well you have that now anyway) as well as the immidiate emerging narrative of "2015 should not be repeated" is making me boil.
We have scumbags in power here in Germany that didn't want to give asylum to refugees from Afghanistan for years and up until two weeks ago actually deported people back to Kabul ("it is safe", yeah feck off) and now their first thoughts are protectionism of their priviliges, fecking clowns.
 
Terrorism comes in many disguises. Ask the people of Afghanistan and Iraq and they'll tell you terrorists were not always brown, bearded and Muslim. Do you want the US/friends to spend another 20 years achieving nothing?

Regardless, your opinion that the Taliban aren't terrorists but American/Western militaries are, is wide enough of the mark to actually be provocative.
 
How desperate must you be to clutch on to the wheels of a plane that's going to fly just so you can escape the death and hopelessness on the ground? Heartbreaking.

Thing is, a rumor flew around that Afghans without visas are going to western countries. A rumor like this would crowd any/most third world country airports to get to the west. You'd have to have family in a poor as hell nation to understand the desperation of leaving a country where your quality of life is so bad you risk death for a chance to live a normal life.
 
Yeah agree. I think America becoming more isolationist is significant as it’s a void which will partly be filled by Russia and China who are hostile to most of the West and don’t run democracies themselves.

It is interesting/disheartening that the fact the Chinese are committing genocide against a subset of their own Muslim population isn’t seen as enough of a blocker for Muslim countries to refrain from dealing with them. They are so powerful though and the only really alternative to the US.

Think Europe (inc. UK) needs to practice working more collectively together on defence and international policy going forward.

That's true but I think it's more a case of these countries going finally someone is actually building infra for us, even if it's for their own benefit. No one else cares about the genocide so why should we? It's messed up of course.
 
Well I read the tweet not the convo. I've heard of this idea before and think it's not true.
Mate, he linked a twitter thread (thread = multiple tweets) literally stating its a good thread (again thread, not tweet) and you go ahead and claim it's not true without reading it. Are you wumming?
 
Good post owlo. For the life of me I still don't understand why the Americans had to invade Afghanistan?
They could have taken bin Laden out by using other means. It would have saved so much.
 
I don't know what the solution is. What i have learned though is that we should never surrender to terrorists. But this is exactly what happened right now, isn't it?
So says a keyboard warrior. Go and say that to the servicemen/women's families who have to spend time away from their loved ones for a mission that has no clear end or goals.
 
Thing is, a rumor flew around that Afghans without visas are going to western countries. A rumor like this would crowd any/most third world country airports to get to the west. You'd have to have family in a poor as hell nation to understand the desperation of leaving a country where your quality of life is so bad you risk death for a chance to live a normal life.

I'm Indian. I perfectly understand the feeling.
 
Good post owlo. For the life of me I still don't understand why the Americans had to invade Afghanistan?
They could have taken bin Laden out by using other means. It would have saved so much.

How else are the people involved with the military industrial complex going to get richer?
 
Good post owlo. For the life of me I still don't understand why the Americans had to invade Afghanistan?
They could have taken bin Laden out by using other means. It would have saved so much.

I honestly feel the politicians had no other choice at the time. It was revenge, pure and simple, and damned the consequences. We can call Bush etc war criminals for the Iraq war all we like, but in the moment, it was either Afghanistan, Pakistan, or both. It was a Beth Horon moment.


How else are the people involved with the military industrial complex going to get richer?

Invade Iraq :)

I don't think that was his opinion, but it's possible local afghans think this way.

Fair, and obviously some do feel that way.
 
I don't think that was his opinion, but it's possible local afghans think this way.

It's bloody obvious isn't it? You had some guys who fly an aircraft into a building and killing thousands of people and they are correctly classified as terrorists.
Then you have a foreign country invading your own country on the accusation of commiting the above mentioned act of terror while the whole damn thing was planned in a different country and committed with not even one Afghani involved. Then even bombing wedding parties and killing so many innocent people.
 
Regardless, your opinion that the Taliban aren't terrorists but American/Western militaries are, is wide enough of the mark to actually be provocative.
I think your interpretation of what he's saying is pretty wide of the mark.
 
I don't know what the solution is. What i have learned though is that we should never surrender to terrorists. But this is exactly what happened right now, isn't it?

Of course they shouldn't. They should be pursued and stopped, as opposed to allowing them to do whatever they want so they can plan and execute attacks in Europe or North America.
 
Invade Iraq

They did that, too! Although part of me wonders how much the development of drone technology influenced these conflicts. R&D only goes so far, the MIC needs theatres of war to truly test their new toys.
 
Of course they shouldn't. They should be pursued and stopped, as opposed to allowing them to do whatever they want so they can plan and execute attacks in Europe or North America.
Which attacks in Europe or North America have been done by the Taliban?
 
Which attacks in Europe or North America have been done by the Taliban?

My last was about terrorism in general. The world trade center attack in 93, the 96 Khobar Towers attack, the USS Cole bombing, 9/11, Charlie Hebdo, the Paris Attacks, and countless others.
 
There is an election coming up in Norway and the leader of the most prominent far right party here made just that point in a debate last night. Sickening.

Help them where they are, the heartless bitch. Bringing that old platitude out even when confronted with this specific case where it obviously isn't going to work to just "help them where they are".

Good news is that they are set to have a disastrous election.
 
Right, and Afghanistan is probably even poorer and ass backwards than worst parts of Indian so you can probably understand how a rumor of visa free flights to the west would go down there

I don't think it's just economic prosperity that people are running away to. It's the fear of life and freedom.
 
Whatever your thoughts on Trump as a businessman he basically worked out the financial costs to keep the US troops on the ground with nothing in return was just not viable.
 
Of course they shouldn't. They should be pursued and stopped, as opposed to allowing them to do whatever they want so they can plan and execute attacks in Europe or North America.

No one "surrendered" though. Goals of neutralizing terror camps and shelters were achieved ages ago.
 
That's true but I think it's more a case of these countries going finally someone is actually building infra for us, even if it's for their own benefit. No one else cares about the genocide so why should we? It's messed up of course.

Yeah, fair. I guess I just assumed because Islam is a central tenet of a lot of these States and you see a lot of solidarity with eg Palestinians there might be more hostility to partnership working with a country that is eradicating its Muslim population, but obviously the circumstances and history is different.
 
No one "surrendered" though. Goals of neutralizing terror camps and shelters were achieved ages ago.

True. Although terror camps have been emerging in many countries over the past 25 years, so neutralizing Bin Laden's operations inside Afghanistan wouldn't mean the end of pursuing terrorist training bases in a number of other countries.
 
Yes, the women and girls will be sent back to the Dark Ages yet again - no chance of education or work, no rights at all.
The girls did go to school during the previous Taliban rule. The Taliban wanted separate schools for the girls but had no finances or infrastructure available to implement the rule. It is still the case today in rural parts of India, Pakistan, Bangladesh although education is made compulsory and it's mostly free in government schools. A minority from poor backgrounds still today only send only their sons to school and girls work at home or in the fields. The thinking behind this is the girls get married, leave home and there is hardly any financial benefit in spending money on educating girls.
 
How desperate must you be to clutch on to the wheels of a plane that's going to fly just so you can escape the death and hopelessness on the ground? Heartbreaking.
It was a really strange video wasn't it? It looked like around 20 people were sitting on top of that wheel framework.

I wonder what happened to them all. I think we've all seen that horrid video of a few of them falling in mid air, i'm amazed they managed to hang on that long!

I don't even know if the wheels retracted whether there would be any space for them to squeeze into? I just can't understand their thinking, but I doubt many of them have ever seen a plane like that let alone how it works.
 
It was a really strange video wasn't it? It looked like around 20 people were sitting on top of that wheel framework.

I wonder what happened to them all. I think we've all seen that horrid video of a few of them falling in mid air, i'm amazed they managed to hang on that long!

I don't even know if the wheels retracted whether there would be any space for them to squeeze into? I just can't understand their thinking, but I doubt many of them have ever seen a plane like that let alone how it works.
Some of the pilots cycled the gear to avoid people remaining in the wells. I presume that was on orders.