2024 U.S. Elections | Trump wins

RDCR07 said:
Yep and it’s not her fault. I understand why Arabs might be cross with her but why Jews?
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Watch a bit of the video of Jewish PA voters talking about why they are voting for Harris or Trump. Those that are voting Trump think he is better on Israel policy. Unlike the Dems, MAGA Republicans don’t have to worry about appeasing both pro-Israel and pro-Palestine voters, which works to Trump’s advantage.
 
Raoul said:
Politics is more entertainment and stand up comedy than substance these days. I suppose we can thank Trump for this.
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I blame social media. People have the attention span of a fruit fly these days. They don't have the patience to listen to someone discuss deeply complicated politicial issues and policies on how to resolve that, let alone read white papers and expert analysis for context.

Rado_N said:
Biden should just have Trump killed by the CIA and then point to the SCOTUS ruling.
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Oh yeah, that certainly won't cause a civil war or anything.

RDCR07 said:
Yep and it’s not her fault. I understand why Arabs might be cross with her but why Jews?
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Trump has signaled he would literally welcome the complete annexation of Palestine, let Israel have all of Jerusalem, bomb Iran to smitherines (his words) and involve the US in direct military conflict in "defence" of Israel. Trump is basically promising Israel middle east hegemony. Maybe some Jews find that preferable?

Why on earth Arab Americans who say Gaza is the #1 issue are even contemplating voting for Trump is beyond me. Stein I get, that is a protest vote, but Trump? Do people even listen to a word that he says?
 


Esper has been on tape, now Kelly is on tape, Mattis and Milley need to wake up and go public with their comments as well, instead of hiding behind journalists.
 
Iker Quesadillas said:
It appears Arab American voters do not find the Caf's "Gaza would be 20x worse under Trump" argument convincing.



In all seriouness you can look at the data from another recent poll here. What you see is that a large number of Arab Americans identify as Republican (38%), the same as the number that identify as Democrat. In a press note for this poll, the institute notes that Biden had 59% support from Arab Americans in the 2020 election.The Arab Americans who identify as Democrat are considerably less enthusiastic to vote than the Republican ones this time (67% to 80%), probably because of disapproval of Gaza, which Arab American Democrats rank as the most important issue for them.

Probably the ones who are likely to vote Republican are fine voting for Trump because they've had eight years to reconcile with the idea, whereas for Democrats the Gaza abomination is still quite fresh.
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I mean, I get it politically but the guy is a racist and an islamophobe. I'm struggling to understand why that wouldn't make it a non-starter for enough voters to not give him an edge. And it's one thing not wanting to vote for Harris because of the handling of Gaza, it's an entirely different thing to vote instead for a guy who obviously wouldn't be better for Gaza, and most likely worse.
 
Jev said:
I mean, I get it politically but the guy is a racist and an islamophobe. I'm struggling to understand why that wouldn't make it a non-starter for enough voters to not give him an edge. And it's one thing not wanting to vote for Harris because of the handling of Gaza, it's an entirely different thing to vote instead for a guy who obviously wouldn't be better for Gaza, and most likely worse.
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If they were fine voting for him then Gaza is unlikely to be their top issue.
 
That's odd...the sister of the soldier whose funeral bill angered Trump speaks up in favor of Trump.

 
VorZakone said:
That's odd...the sister of the soldier whose funeral bill angered Trump speaks up in favor of Trump.

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What's odd about it? You have J6-ers who spent years in prison because of him, then saw him said 'I had nothing to do with it' and still fervently support him. Being in a military household doesn't make you immune from the cult.

Also, her denial was included in the Atlantic article.
 
Jev said:
I mean, I get it politically but the guy is a racist and an islamophobe. I'm struggling to understand why that wouldn't make it a non-starter for enough voters to not give him an edge. And it's one thing not wanting to vote for Harris because of the handling of Gaza, it's an entirely different thing to vote instead for a guy who obviously wouldn't be better for Gaza, and most likely worse.
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It's hard to know because we don't know how many individuals are switching votes versus dropping out and so forth.

But I think maybe this is one of the issues with lesser-of-two-evil logic. When faced with two evils, there is no guarantee that people will think you are the 'lesser' one, especially the closer they are to each other.
 
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Georgia is on track to equal or surpass 2020 in turnout, only 75k votes behind the same day last election despite starting ~400k votes down due to reduction in requeted mails.

A pretty stark data point in favour of the notion of change in voting patterns, people aren't sitting out, they are just requesting less mails.
 
Harris will probably lose Michigan and the Dems will deserve it. 100k people voted uncommitted in the primary and they laughed it off.
 
VorZakone said:
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People are just dumb as fk. Why any woman would vote Trump is beyond me. Why any non white American would vote Trump is beyond me. Why and soldier or cop would vote Trump is beyond me. If you are a white male and fascist/racist I get it. But the rest - why?

It's like I saw Candace Owens and other black presenters saying that they hated the fact that Kamala was pretending to be black. She changes accents and tries to act black or Indian or whatever based on the audience. Same as Obama who was raised in Hawai with white parents. I mean OK. I get you. They are not actually representative of working class black people. They weren't brought up in the bronx Or faced police brutality or racism etc. But how the fk does that make Trump better! He's literally a racist that has 0 understanding of black culture.
Same with women - you might not like Harris but at least she's not a fkn women abuser. Also the likes of Shawn Ryan and a few other ex military. Trump literally is a military dodger. And he said people killed in war are losers etc. Also why the fk do they think Trump cares about the brown people in Gaza? He's a racist and wants to deport them all and he loves dictators. Putin, kim jong un. Loves them. Why wouldn't he love Netanyahu? How the fk can you back a person that is the opposite of everything you stand for.
People hate Elon musk. But that fkr at least has a reason. He gets the power and control. All these other people - Why?
 
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Why are Trump’s odds so short? I thought this was basically a toss up until very recently and it seems now that bookies are giving him more than a 60% chance to win.
 
UpWithRivers said:
People are just dumb as fk. Why any woman would vote Trump is beyond me. Why any non white American would vote Trump is beyond me. Why and soldier or cop would vote Trump is beyond me. If you are a white male and fascist/racist I get it. But the rest - why?

It's like I saw Candace Owens and other black presenters saying that they hated the fact that Kamala was pretending to be black. She changes accents and tries to act black or Indian or whatever based on the audience. Same as Obama who was raised in Hawai with white parents. I mean OK. I get you. They are not actually representative of working class black people. They weren't brought up in the bronx Or faced police brutality or racism etc. But how the fk does that make Trump better! He's literally a racist that has 0 understanding of black culture.
Same with women - you might not like Harris but at least she's not a fkn women abuser. Also the likes of Shawn Ryan and a few other ex military. Trump literally is a military dodger. And he said people killed in war are losers etc. How the fk can you back a person that is the opposite of everything you stand for.
People hate Elon musk. But that fkr at least has a reason. He gets the power and control. All these other people - Why?
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The best answer I have found to that question is disruption.

The current political machine in the US is deeply dysfunctional. Corporatism on both sides has allowed the political apparatus to be eroded from the inside. And the republican war on the lower and middle class since Reagan that has hollowed out the standard of living gets attributed to politicians in general.

Sure Trump won't fix that, but he might feck up the system. Even if it's for the worse, what comes after Trump might be something better if enough of the current system breaks.

The BIG difference between the left and right in the US is that the right dared to go hard right with Reaganomics. And then far right with Trump. And won each time. And the Democrat response every time has been to move over and represent a "we're not as bad as they are" just-left-of-centre position. Obama said it right when he said that in the 80s, he would have been a republican.

The economic and social policies of pre Reagan US would be unfathomable to discuss in 2024.

In Denmark, it is generally acknowledged that the social democrats won politics and all other parties have essentially been forced into being socialdemocrats with a spin. In the US, neoliberalism won.

Sanders was a chance to move the needle the other way, but the democratic party made sure to put a stop to that.
 
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Sarni said:
Why are Trump’s odds so short? I thought this was basically a toss up until very recently and it seems now that bookies are giving him more than a 60% chance to win.
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Crypto whales are dropping big bets on him based on vibes (although US citizens cant bet on Polymarket, funny that)

Tbh I don't discount a rug pull either, if they have enough money (and most likely they do), they can cover for it with a much smaller bet on Harris, netting a decent profit. Biden went to $5 after Florida results dropped in 2020.
 
B20 said:
The best answer I have found to that question is disruption.

The current political machine in the US is deeply dysfunctional. Corporatism on both sides has allowed the political apparatus to be eroded from the inside. And the republican war on the lower and middle class since Reagan that has hollowed out the standard of living gets attributed to politicians in general.

Sure Trump won't fix that, but he might feck up the system. Even if it's for the worse, what comes after Trump might be something better if enough of the current system breaks.
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The problem is the damage Trump will do not only to America but the world. It's a long 4 years.
 
UpWithRivers said:
People are just dumb as fk. Why any woman would vote Trump is beyond me. Why any non white American would vote Trump is beyond me. Why and soldier or cop would vote Trump is beyond me. If you are a white male and fascist/racist I get it. But the rest - why?
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Because broad identifiers like 'woman', 'Arab', 'Latino', and so forth aren't actually that strong. They are relevant to some political issues, but then within those broad subgroups you have class, education, culture, and other factors that also drive political behavior and opinions on a number of issues.
 
B20 said:
The best answer I have found to that question is disruption.

The current political machine in the US is deeply dysfunctional. Corporatism on both sides has allowed the political apparatus to be eroded from the inside. And the republican war on the lower and middle class since Reagan that has hollowed out the standard of living gets attributed to politicians in general.

Sure Trump won't fix that, but he might feck up the system. Even if it's for the worse, what comes after Trump might be something better if enough of the current system breaks.
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This was a fair argument the first time he was elected. People just wanted something different. But now you have a sht load more facts. Firstly he did jack sht to disrupt the system. In fact he gave tax breaks to the elites. Plus he incited a riot on the capital. Said racist things. Got indicted. Said racist sht. Stole documents. And on and on. So now people are like 'oh well next time he will disrupt the system'?
 
Iker Quesadillas said:
Because broad identifiers like 'woman', 'Arab', 'Latino', and so forth aren't actually that strong. They are relevant to some political issues, but then within those broad subgroups you have class, education, culture, and other factors that also drive political behavior.
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I don't get you. Care to expand?
 
UpWithRivers said:
This was a fair argument the first time he was elected. People just wanted something different. But now you have a sht load more facts. Firstly he did jack sht to disrupt the system. In fact he gave tax breaks to the elites. Plus he incited a riot on the capital. Said racist things. Got indicted. Said racist sht. Stole documents. And on and on. So now people are like 'oh well next time he will disrupt the system'?
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Hey, he tried for insurrection. If that isn't disruption I don't know what is. Maybe this time he'll succeed.
 
No surprises here. These are type of pollsters that have been flooding the aggregate. TIPP Insights are another one that are suspicious, you only need to take one look at their website to see who they are supporting.





 
UpWithRivers said:
This was a fair argument the first time he was elected. People just wanted something different. But now you have a sht load more facts. Firstly he did jack sht to disrupt the system. In fact he gave tax breaks to the elites. Plus he incited a riot on the capital. Said racist things. Got indicted. Said racist sht. Stole documents. And on and on. So now people are like 'oh well next time he will disrupt the system'?
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Not to mention recommend drinking bleach, made lots of gaffes and done feck all when Covid was running rampant. He's got zero policies, just makes any old shit up. There really isn't any justification for voting for him, unless of course you are a racist piece of shit.
 
UpWithRivers said:
I don't get you. Care to expand?
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Well as a personal example, I am Latino. But I don't really walk around thinking 'I'm Latino' all day nor do I vote based on who is best for 'Latino issues.' Im' not even sure I could properly define what 'being best for Latino issues' is. Within Latinos you will have people that are working class and with lower levels of income, people who have higher income and/or are small business owners, people who are religious, people who want or don't want the U.S. to meddle in their country of origin due to its government (which may be right-wing or left-wing), people who identify strongly as Latino, people who identify strongly as American, people who are in communities with long-standing Latino influence, people who aren't, and so forth. All these subgroups will have different ideas of who the 'best candidate' is. Presumably, though, there are some issues that are common to most of them, which is why you can see some movement in every election based on who is running.
 
Jev said:
I mean, I get it politically but the guy is a racist and an islamophobe. I'm struggling to understand why that wouldn't make it a non-starter for enough voters to not give him an edge. And it's one thing not wanting to vote for Harris because of the handling of Gaza, it's an entirely different thing to vote instead for a guy who obviously wouldn't be better for Gaza, and most likely worse.
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It’s also worth mentioning (because I think most on here are making a similar assumptions) that Arab Americans are mostly muslims. They’re actually mostly Christians.

From my experience, Arab Christians tend to be just as religious on average as their Muslim counterparts and are generally socially conservative. So messaging on abortion, LGBTQ rights etc etc are unlikely to resonate particularly well with them .

Moreover, as has been said above, they are likely either not single issue voters if they are thinking about voting for trump or think that despite all the rhetoric, there’s little material difference in the end between someone who calls you subhuman scum and then gives your neighbour total cover to bomb the shit out of you. Or call you just scum…while giving your neighbour total cover to bing the shit out of you.

At some point, the difference becomes so negligible that some of them may start voting on other issues they deem the repubs closer to them on.
 
Iker Quesadillas said:
Well as a personal example, I am Latino. But I don't really walk around thinking 'I'm Latino' all day nor do I vote based on who is best for 'Latino issues.' Im' not even sure I could properly define what 'being best for Latino issues' is. Within Latinos you will have people that are working class and with lower levels of income, people who have higher income and/or are small business owners, people who are religious, people who want or don't want the U.S. to meddle in their country of origin due to its government (which may be right-wing or left-wing), people who identify strongly as Latino, people who identify strongly as American, people who are in communities with long-standing Latino influence, people who aren't, and so forth. All these subgroups will have different ideas of who the 'best candidate' is. Presumably, though, there are some issues that are common to most of them, which is why you can see some movement in every election based on who is running.
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I get that but the commonality between Latinos, Black, Mixed race like me etc is that you are not white. And if you are not white then you shouldn't vote for a racist. Heck even if you are white and dont like racists then you shouldn't vote for a racist. Surely that is priority number 1. Sure you might get better tax breaks from candidate x then y. But if candidate x is a racist then why the fk are you voting for them? It makes 0 sense. Same as women. Sure you might be a white woman and candidate x maybe is better for jobs for white women and you might not care about the fact he is a racist. But you should all care about the fact that he is indicted on abusing women. Surely that binds everyone into 1 commonality? Its like voting for a Paedo teacher for your kids because they have better qualifications and will ensure your kids will be good at maths. Its nuts.
 
UpWithRivers said:
I get that but the commonality between Latinos, Black, Mixed race like me etc is that you are not white. And if you are not white then you shouldn't vote for a racist. Heck even if you are white and dont like racists then you shouldn't vote for a racist. Surely that is priority number 1.
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Voters disagree that this is priority number one.

Re: being white, a large number of Latinos do identify as white. Many of them are white. It's a complicated identity and depends on how the question is asked, the context, and so forth.

UpWithRivers said:
Sure you might be a white woman and candidate x maybe is better for jobs for white women and you might not care about the fact he is a racist. But you should all care about the fact that he is indicted on abusing women.
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Trump famously brought a bunch of women who'd accused Bill Clinton of sexual misconduct to one of the 2016 debates. Women still voted for Hillary, even though she is still married to Bill. Perhaps they look the other way, or don't believe the accusations are true, and so forth. I imagine a lot of people are not all that aware of Trump's legal cases and just know about the Access Hollywood tape.
 
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Iker Quesadillas said:
Voters disagree that this is priority number one.

Re: being white, a large number of Latinos do identify as white. Many of them are white. It's a complicated identity and depends on how the question is asked, the context, and so forth.
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This makes no sense to me. I get Latinos can identify as white. But its irrelevant because you can be sure Trump doesn't. I guess that's the point? Are mixed race/latinos etc thinking they are part of the Maga group and not realizing you are in the group that Trump wants to deport. I remember seeing documentary that in the UK when the Polish people moved in the Indian/Pakistani community went nuts and told them to get our of their country. Which it is...not saying different. Buy they don't seem to realize there ancestors too immigrated. Is this whats happening in America. All these different races now just identify with being white American and think they are in Trumps camp?
 
Rado_N said:
Oh yeah, it was an entirely serious suggestion as well.
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Oh yeah, and I was totally not playing a long and asking a rethotical question for emphasis.

MrMarcello said:
Yet it was President Biden who signed the bill she's mentioning, she even tweeted it.
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Semantics, Biden, Obama, Bush Sr, Trump - they are all presidents.

Where was Obama during 9/11? You have to wonder.

Tom Van Persie said:
The betting market is easily manipulated.
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Maybe we should just remove every election system in the world? Just let betting companies decide. I see no flaw in that plan.
 
VorZakone said:
That's odd...the sister of the soldier whose funeral bill angered Trump speaks up in favor of Trump.

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This is another example of what I was saying above. Trump does nothing but show disrespect to a group of people and yet they defend him and vote for him. Its like mass abuse syndrome where the abuser keeps abusing them but does one thing nice every now and again and they go back to thinking they are a saint and still loves them and they just made a mistake but didn't truly mean it. I would would get it if it were a few people but its 70/80 million odd people. It makes zero sense. There should be studies into this.
 
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