Don't base it on the RV poll above. Harris is up by about 3 in most of the polling averages, which suggests the race is pretty much a toss up. If she turns out more people than Trump, as Biden did, then she will win.
2024 U.S. Elections | Trump wins
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Don't base it on the RV poll above. Harris is up by about 3 in most of the polling averages, which suggests the race is pretty much a toss up. If she turns out more people than Trump, as Biden did, then she will win.
She's looking stronger than expected in Pennsylvania at the moment which is encouraging, the candidate who wins that state usually wins the election.
It will be much closer than it was in 2020 though that much is clear.
It will be much closer than it was in 2020 though that much is clear.
You’re talking about American deaths. If Trump licks Putins arsehole as he seems so keen to do, the death toll across Russias borders will be far higher.
Unless you just mean Trump losing and a civil war ensuing. In which case, people will just laugh as dweebs with access to guns get absolutely obliterated by the totality of the worlds most violent war apparatus.
Trump has made a few gains in PA this month. Fortunately, the NYT Sienna LV poll has her up by 4 and its the latest poll available. Still they are all within the margin of error, with the possible exception of the NYT poll.
Harris and Walz are also going heavy on PA, MI, and WI stops this week, and it some point, they are going to have to prioritize a strategy that sticks to the rust belt states and maybe winning NV, instead of spending precious time in AZ and GA. Let Obama and Bill Clinton handle the sunbelt.
Polling isn't all you have too look at, enthusiasm is high for democrats, not so much for republicans, people have to actually show up to vote, not just say which candidate they prefer.
Polling hasn't changed that much either, from what i can tell, a point here or there doesnt say much.
well one difference between the early and later parts of the campaign is her change in emphasis. "we will not go back" vs "cheney wants to defeat trump, i will rule with republicans".
your spiel about trump was equally true when biden was in the race and he was polling much worse than trump, consistently, despite having rfk pulling away a lot of trump votes, so obviously trump has enough people (close to but not quite 50%) willing to vote for him to win.
Trump is not getting all that close 50%, he never has, his ceiling is about 47%, as every election.
Unless he is somehow a stronger candidate now than 4 years ago, don't get that feeling at all.
The DeSantis situation was pretty cringeworthy for Harris. Biden could've avoided throwing her under the bus like that, but did it anyway.
is there any indication of where turnout will be compared to 2016 and 2020?
MAGA
He went hunting with his great uncle and hasn't been heard from since.
Trump has made a few gains in PA this month. Fortunately, the NYT Sienna LV poll has her up by 4 and its the latest poll available. Still they are all within the margin of error, with the possible exception of the NYT poll.
Harris and Walz are also going heavy on PA, MI, and WI stops this week, and it some point, they are going to have to prioritize a strategy that sticks to the rust belt states and maybe winning NV, instead of spending precious time in AZ and GA. Let Obama and Bill Clinton handle the sunbelt.
It may have been discussed before, but a big reason for Trump's boost in the polls looks to have have been Republican pollsters flooding the averages since end of September...
@Sweet Square
tweet from a private account, think you'll like it
Kamala is cosplaying Hillary Clinton 2016 and Biden is cosplaying George W. Bush 2003. We truly are living the 18th Brumaire.
tweet from a private account, think you'll like it
Kamala is cosplaying Hillary Clinton 2016 and Biden is cosplaying George W. Bush 2003. We truly are living the 18th Brumaire.
I've seen that argument, but most of the polls I've seen in the polling average are commonly cited polls.
Amazing. Especially considering what he called Kamala at that donor dinner
Brand new NY/Sienna polls just dropped for AZ. Trump + 5 in both LV polls. Harris should probably focus on consolidating the rust belt, + NE2 and NV.
You sure? They did Arizona like two days ago, not the same poll?
They may be commonly sighted, but it doesn't mean they are now Republican aligned....
Trafalgar and Insider Advantage are well to lean GOP. And it's not just to boost Trumps ego....
https://www.nj.com/politics/2024/09...y-polls-will-help-trump-with-the-big-lie.html
There is no coincidence that they flood them zone with them at a time when Harris appears to be taking a lead.
They may be commonly sighted, but it doesn't mean they are now Republican aligned....
Trafalgar and Insider Advantage are well to lean GOP. And it's not just to boost Trumps ego....
https://www.nj.com/politics/2024/09...y-polls-will-help-trump-with-the-big-lie.html
There is no coincidence that they flood them zone with them at a time when Harris appears to be taking a lead.
I've seen this. The trouble with looking at it in these terms is some of the so called R leaning polls have also been quite accurate in the past, which is the predominant factor in whether they are factored into the various polling averages.
My feeling is the Dems view Georgia and North Carolina as more winnable than Arizona at this point. Immigration is an important issue to many voters in AZ and it's hurting Harris there.
Yes its the same poll. It ended on the 10th but just showed up in the FiveThirtyEight "Latest Polls" feed just now. Still, the 10th is close enough to take it seriously. Obviously turnout is going to be a big factor in how close these numbers are to reality in 3.5 weeks.
Agreed. If she can somehow pick off NC, it would almost guarantee she wins since it would offset the loss of one rust belt state. If she improbably wins both NC and NV, and loses PA, she could still win that way. Seems a highly improbable scenario, but not impossible.
it was, PA+4 Harris and AZ+5 Trump.
They were the same batch as their oversampled black and Latino national poll.
For what it's worth, NYT/Siena have kinda been on their own this cycle, national tie when other network pollsters showed a sizeable Harris lead, +4 national now when NBC and ABC/Ipsos found a -4 movement, +13 Florida etc. Either they will prove a genius or Cohn will have a lot of explaining to do after the election, he's already hedging a bit with his recent articles and tweets.
True, most others, like Emerson, CBS etc. seems to have checked out and basically just put every swing state as a tie, NYT differs from the pack.
As long as Harris and Trump continue polling within the MoE, she has a decent chance of winning imo. The Dems just have to make sure people vote.
NC could prove important if say, Wisconsin flip, lets be honest, a big part of the reason why people distrust polling is Wisconsin specifically.
Some of the early data is looking promising, but not enough to make me trust them one bit, yet.
Some of the early data is looking promising, but not enough to make me trust them one bit, yet.
And what if NBC shows a good poll next time for Harris?
For me, the race has stalled for a month or so: Harris up 2-3% points nationally, and the swing states are pretty much within 1-3% points range. According to all websites that we look at, her chances have fluctuated around 53-58% for weeks now, namely a toss up.
I wasn’t sure that she would win a month ago, and I’m not sure that she would lose now. A toss up!
Also: I never liked the NY/Sienna poll. Never.
Ezra Klein in the NYT:
excerpt:
But that’s not where the presidential election sits. As of Oct. 10, The New York Times’s polling average had Kamala Harris leading Trump by three points nationally. That’s tight, but the seven swing states are tighter: Neither candidate is leading by more than two points in any of them.
Imagine the polls perform better in 2024 than they did in either 2016 or 2020: They’re off, remarkably, by merely two points in the swing states. Huzzah! That would be consistent with Harris winning every swing state. It would also be consistent with Trump winning every swing state. This is not some outlandish scenario. According to Nate Silver’s election model, the most likely electoral outcome “is Harris sweeping all seven swing states. And the next most likely is Trump sweeping all seven.”
Which is all to say: The polls can’t tell you the way in which they’re going to be wrong, nor by how much. But that’s what matters now.
https://www.nytimes.com/2024/10/13/opinion/polls-harris-trump.html
Ignore the Polls
Oct. 13, 2024, 7:00 a.m. ETexcerpt:
But that’s not where the presidential election sits. As of Oct. 10, The New York Times’s polling average had Kamala Harris leading Trump by three points nationally. That’s tight, but the seven swing states are tighter: Neither candidate is leading by more than two points in any of them.
Imagine the polls perform better in 2024 than they did in either 2016 or 2020: They’re off, remarkably, by merely two points in the swing states. Huzzah! That would be consistent with Harris winning every swing state. It would also be consistent with Trump winning every swing state. This is not some outlandish scenario. According to Nate Silver’s election model, the most likely electoral outcome “is Harris sweeping all seven swing states. And the next most likely is Trump sweeping all seven.”
Which is all to say: The polls can’t tell you the way in which they’re going to be wrong, nor by how much. But that’s what matters now.
https://www.nytimes.com/2024/10/13/opinion/polls-harris-trump.html
such strong hillary 2016 vibes.
cant even pander properly. latinos are moving to trump because of inflation and education polarisation, not because of nostalgia for george bush and his AG. jfc.
Kamala is a mediocre politician. Her winning was always dependent on America being sufficiently disgusted by Trump to turn out for her. If she wins and the GOP runs a sane candidate in 2028 she'll lose badly.