2024 U.S. Elections | Trump wins

Jev said:
It is a shame that she has to basically concede politically to have any chance of winning.
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Yeah I know she will get criticism of this from the progressive left and in some ways rightfully so, but this country is so fecked in any resemblance of political consensus building that she has to swing some center right and left folks.

And as I've said before - I do generally feel that at least anecdotally - illegal immigration is something that is of concern on both sides of the aisle to varying degrees. Just look at how the topic is tearing more progressive countries like Canada or some of the European nations apart. You risk losing some of the voters to the right in the long run if the left doesn't move on that. Populism is not going away anytime soon.
 
Quinnipac polls out for PA, MI, and WI not great news for Harris. Caveat that I don’t think Quinnipac were all that accurate in 2020 but it’s not great reading.

Harris leads 49-46 in PA, trails 50-47 in MI and 48-46 in WI
 
Charlie Foley said:
Quinnipac polls out for PA, MI, and WI not great news for Harris. Caveat that I don’t think Quinnipac were all that accurate in 2020 but it’s not great reading.

Harris leads 49-46 in PA, trails 50-47 in MI and 48-46 in WI
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Just saw this. Was elated with the PA result, then I came to the two others. Not good at all.
 
I think previously Harris was +6, +5, and +1 respectively: an 8 point swing in Michigan seems nuts. The pro Harris numbers could be the skewed ones/oddities.

I don’t know if @owlo is still in here but as a pollster I’d be questioning something about my model with these swings
 
gaffs said:
I think the deal here was that De Santis didn't want to take a call from Harris as it wouldn't normally be the VP that would normally call the Governors in this situation.

The other Governors were happy to take a call from her though.

The one silver lining of this Hurricane is that DeSantis can dust off his waders....


FeSt2reaYAAuSSh.jpg
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The actual picture is already funny. Why not post that instead of this bad joke?
 
Democrats grow anxious as Election Day nears
“People are nervous. They know the polls are tight,” a source close to the campaign said. “A lot of us are having these flashbacks to 2016 too. We know when it can go the wrong way, and it can still feel fresh.”

Further complicating efforts to rally the base, Democrats are struggling in some quarters to identify who that should be. Some are keen to win over GOP moderates who have soured on Donald Trump – a tactic with questionable returns-on-investment. Others want to focus on mobilizing men and men of color to turn out – a demographic that remains a point of concern among Harris campaign officials.
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https://edition.cnn.com/2024/10/09/...nxiety-kamala-harris-2024-election/index.html
 
Eboue said:
This is a winning message. As a person in a swing state I can attest that almost everyone i know can't wait to stand in line and vote for this person.
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If you live in a swing state now, I assume you are voting for Harris regardless of your contempt?
 
New rules in Georgia that some officials fear could inject chaos into November’s election have links to a controversial group that has gained outsized influence in the Peach State.
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I wouldn't read too much into this one, Michigan is unlikely to vote to the right of PA, let alone by 6 points, its not happening.

Its not the first time Quinnipiac has had rather big swings either, for whatever reason, but throw it into the average.
 
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gaffs said:
All three feel like outliers.
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The current 538 chief analyst wrote a long explanation, I linked to it above.

Also, this can finally be the election where Ralston gets Nevada wrong



His method was pretty simple and reliable, the gist of it is Nevada 2 largest counties, Clark (Vegas) and Washoe (Reno) account for about 90% of the state population, and NV preferred early voting and usually 80% of the votes were in and reported along party registration before E-day (not actual result, just registration), so if Dems can build a big enough firewall during this period, as they used to have a pretty steady registration lead, they will win the election, as there aren't enough vote left on EDay to make up the deficit for R.

Now, however, with the explosion of Indie voters and both parties registration have cratered, that logic no long applies. The recent uptick in R registration nationwide implies that the newcomers are enthusiastic MAGA who identify strongly with the Trump Party, but new voters are overwhelmingly registering as independent even though their voting behaviour is much more liberal than previous generations split. I think if he has it right this time it will be more luck than anything else ( and a good hunch born out of being familiar with the micro signs in state politics, he did predict a CCM win and Sissolak loss last cycle when most had a R sweep)
 
Charlie Foley said:
Quinnipac polls out for PA, MI, and WI not great news for Harris. Caveat that I don’t think Quinnipac were all that accurate in 2020 but it’s not great reading.

Harris leads 49-46 in PA, trails 50-47 in MI and 48-46 in WI
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I don’t believe that she will win PA (let alone by 3 points) and lose MI and WI by that margin. If she wins PA, she will carry the other two.
 
VorZakone said:
Democrats grow anxious as Election Day nears

https://edition.cnn.com/2024/10/09/...nxiety-kamala-harris-2024-election/index.html
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Nothing really new here. Every battleground state is close or within the margin of error.
ManUtd1999 said:
I don’t believe that she will win PA (let alone by 3 points) and lose MI and WI by that margin. If she wins PA, she will carry the other two.
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Agreed. And PA is the toughest out of the three.

PA early voting

Total Voted by Party Registration​

PartyTotal
Voted		Percent
Democrat187,82370.5 %
Republican56,56721.2 %
None/Minor21,8698.2 %
TOTAL266,259100 %
 
Tom Van Persie said:
Nothing really new here. Every battleground state is close or within the margin of error.

Agreed. And PA is the toughest out of the three.

PA early voting

Total Voted by Party Registration​

PartyTotal
Voted		Percent
Democrat187,82370.5 %
Republican56,56721.2 %
None/Minor21,8698.2 %
TOTAL266,259100 %
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Yes.

We were anxious also in 2012, 2016 and 2020. Really, 2008 was the last time that it was clear who was going to win. I know that Obama had a clear win 2012, but there was a lot of anxiety before Election Day, especially after his debate in Denver.

2004: very close. 2000: we know the story.

It’s always close.
 
Tom Van Persie said:
Nothing really new here. Every battleground state is close or within the margin of error.

Agreed. And PA is the toughest out of the three.

PA early voting

Total Voted by Party Registration​

PartyTotal
Voted		Percent
Democrat187,82370.5 %
Republican56,56721.2 %
None/Minor21,8698.2 %
TOTAL266,259100 %
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Are there any sites that show the early voting numbers, day by day, for 2024 v 2020 (and even 2016) ?
 
Raoul said:
Full episode airs tonight

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Harris is more or less the US equivalent of Francois Hollande, albeit with a much more hawkish stance.

She's no leader material, someone who's solely needed in these mad times, and the only thing she has going for her is that she's not Trump.

Harris will surf on and continue what Biden has started, that's her lifeline and the end of it.
 
InfiniteBoredom said:
The current 538 chief analyst wrote a long explanation, I linked to it above.

Also, this can finally be the election where Ralston gets Nevada wrong



His method was pretty simple and reliable, the gist of it is Nevada 2 largest counties, Clark (Vegas) and Washoe (Reno) account for about 90% of the state population, and NV preferred early voting and usually 80% of the votes were in and reported along party registration before E-day (not actual result, just registration), so if Dems can build a big enough firewall during this period, as they used to have a pretty steady registration lead, they will win the election, as there aren't enough vote left on EDay to make up the deficit for R.

Now, however, with the explosion of Indie voters and both parties registration have cratered, that logic no long applies. The recent uptick in R registration nationwide implies that the newcomers are enthusiastic MAGA who identify strongly with the Trump Party, but new voters are overwhelmingly registering as independent even though their voting behaviour is much more liberal than previous generations split. I think if he has it right this time it will be more luck than anything else ( and a good hunch born out of being familiar with the micro signs in state politics, he did predict a CCM win and Sissolak loss last cycle when most had a R sweep)
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Good post. So we are saying that in NV, there have been circa 575k new Republicans and 600k new Democrats registered this cycle, but 800k new independants?

If that is largely down to automatic voter registration, then who knows how they lean? And if they will vote at all?
One would assume that those purposely registering to vote, will tend to make the effort to vote. The ones that get automatically registered my not be so engaged.

According to the demographic data, it would seem that many will be Hispanic voters....

https://usafacts.org/data/topics/pe...raphics/our-changing-population/state/nevada/
 
That_Bloke said:
Harris is more or less the US equivalent of Francois Hollande, albeit with a much more hawkish stance.

She's no leader material, someone who's solely needed in these mad times, and the only thing she has going for her is that she's not Trump.

Harris will surf on and continue what Biden has started, that's her lifeline and the end of it.
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More hawkish than Hollande? I don't think you know what you're talking about.
 
TwoSheds said:
More hawkish than Hollande? I don't think you know what you're talking about.
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I'm more than aware of Hollande's glorious achievements in North Africa (especially Mali) and Syria. My comparison isn't coincidental.

I think that a lot of desperate people are cheering for someone who's even worse than him, in my opinion. She's a hawk with a chip on the shoulder and a point to prove.

And she has the military full might of the US.
 
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Morty_ said:
I wouldn't read too much into this one, all over the place, Michigan is unlikely to vote to the right of PA, let alone by 6 points, its not happening.
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ManUtd1999 said:
I don’t believe that she will win PA (let alone by 3 points) and lose MI and WI by that margin. If she wins PA, she will carry the other two.
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Yeah, there’s a lot of stuff if you dig deep into this, the cross tabs are bizarre. Stuff like Trump leading among young voters on a 24 point swing (I’m iffy on specifics without looking again). Extremely bouncy polling
 
That_Bloke said:
Harris is more or less the US equivalent of Francois Hollande, albeit with a much more hawkish stance.

She's no leader material, someone who's solely needed in these mad times, and the only thing she has going for her is that she's not Trump.

Harris will surf on and continue what Biden has started, that's her lifeline and the end of it.
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She has no clear ideology, which has pros and cons.
 
That_Bloke said:
I'm more than aware of Hollande's glorious achievements in North Africa (especially Mali) and Syria. My comparison isn't coincidental.

I think that a lot of desperate people are cheering for someone who's even worse than him, in my opinion. She's a hawk with a chip on the shoulder and a point to prove.

And she has the military full might of the US.
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Well given Libya is Hollande and Cameron's crowning feck up, call me sceptical that you are adequately aware of what you're talking. I don't think Harris has advocated starting a single conflict has she? Just been reticent to say she would stop them which is very different. Being obliged not to rock the boat in a situation is not the same as going round playing soldier from a safe distance like the likes of Blair, Cameron and Hollande were wont to do. She doesn't strike me as being even remotely like that actually.
 
That_Bloke said:
Absolutely and that's exactly what makes me wary of her.
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Yes. In her interviews, she doesn’t seem sure about what she thinks or would do as president. It’s more of a general talk, like in some of the clips that were posted here. She did much better in the debate than in these interviews.

The other possibility: she is trying to be vague so that not to contradict Biden or not to alienate potential voters. The question “how would you be different than Biden” is a tough one to answer. There is really no great answer.

My own guess is the former. No clear, established ideology, thus allowing her to be flexible if she wins.
 
ManUtd1999 said:
She has no clear ideology, which has pros and cons.
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I think she does have a clear view on the issues, but instead of always speaking her mind about what she believes, she is instead gravitating towards politically safe, focus grouped positions; specifically designed to avoid controversy and mitigate exploitable weaknesses from Republican attacks. A good example would her claim she owns a glock. Why ? Because, she said, "I have a law enforcement background". Another example is when she recently volunteered to an interviewer that she is a capitalist - an obvious play to centrism in case anyone actually thought she's a "San Francisco liberal". Everything she says is designed to play to the political center.
 
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