2024 U.S. Elections | Trump wins

Cal? said:
FL seems to be the one with everything possibly aligning.

Abortion on the ballot
Unpopular senator
Alienation of Haitians (and they can vote in FL)
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But thats not the full story, and its been mentioned several times, Florida shifts to the right every election, its a state that "always" overestimate democrats, and the voter registration numbers are beyond sad for the state party.

Now, i don't think either flips, but i will continue to stand by that Texas will be closer than Florida this election cycle.
 
surf said:
Kim Darroch (UK ambassador to the US during the Trump presidency) says that Trump is the likelier winner unless Harris focuses on two things: be more available to talk to the media and have a laser focus on PA, MI and WI. He says that in 2016 H Clinton made the mistake of shutting out the media whereas Trump would talk to anyone at any time.
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But she isn't ignoring these states, why are we paying attention to this person anyway?
 
Morty_ said:
But thats not the full story, and its been mentioned several times, Florida shifts to the right every election, its a state that "always" overestimate democrats, and the voter registration numbers are beyond sad for the state party.

Now, i don't think either flips, but i will continue to stand by that Texas will be closer than Florida this election cycle.
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We'll see, I don't have high hopes of FL flipping blue, but abortion on the ballot has done wonders every time.
 
Morty_ said:
But she isn't ignoring these states, why are we paying attention to this person anyway?
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Well, he was the UK ambassador to the US so he’s probably more aware than most.

That said, it wouldn’t surprise me if he has a book coming out or something.
 
NicolaSacco said:
Well, he was the UK ambassador to the US so he’s probably more aware than most.

That said, it wouldn’t surprise me if he has a book coming out or something.
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He's already done that...
https://harpercollins.co.uk/product...e-of-trump-kim-darroch?variant=39253504196686

For those that don't know, he was the guy that called Trump insecure and incompetent, and his whole administration as deeply dysfunctional in diplomatic cables to the UK government. The cables got leaked and Trump threw a strop. He actually got the backing of Theresa May and the UK government at the time until Boris took over and forced him to resign to appease Trump.
 
Partisanship is taking over, Montana senate race was moved from toss-up to lean republican, accodring to cook political report, you aren't going to win a senate race in a 15-20+republican state, as a democrat in this day and age, it just makes sense.

Sherrod better watch out too, it may "only" be 8-10 points lean republican instead, but frankly, the state lost the plot quite some time ago, and they even elected what was essentially "anything with an R next to its name is better than a democrat" in the senate race, less than two years ago.

3-4 point average lead there don't give me much comfort, Brown may very well lose this race.

Without Montana, 49 is most likely the best case sceario for dems, Texas is the most likely out, and in my mind, the most likely path to senate majority for democrats,the trends are going towards democrats in the state.
 
InfiniteBoredom said:
Maryland is vulnerable as well, Hogan is polling well despite a fair chunk of undecideds
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What brings down Tester, will bring down Hogan as well, even more so, considering Maryland is even bluer, and Hogan is not even a sitting senator.

Its bizarro-land, if Hogan wins a senate seat in a state that Harris will win by 30.
 
Morty_ said:
What brings down Tester, will bring down Hogan as well, even more so, considering Maryland is even bluer, and Hogan is not even a sitting senator.

Its bizarro-land, if Hogan wins a senate seat in a state that Harris will win by 30.
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Collins survived 2020 Tbf, although it’s only 10 points.

LaCivita said Cruz internal showing him in trouble the other day, and DMP is competitive with Scott in Florida, both long shots but probably worth dropping 30m in each race. Long term though, it’s worth exploring Alaska, and Roy Cooper must run in NC in 26.
 
Morty_ said:
What brings down Tester, will bring down Hogan as well, even more so, considering Maryland is even bluer, and Hogan is not even a sitting senator.

Its bizarro-land, if Hogan wins a senate seat in a state that Harris will win by 30.
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Hogan was a hugely popular Governor though wasn't he, as well as not being a MAGA type?
 
InfiniteBoredom said:
Collins survived 2020 Tbf, although it’s only 10 points.

LaCivita said Cruz internal showing him in trouble the other day, and DMP is competitive with Scott in Florida, both long shots but probably worth dropping 30m in each race. Long term though, it’s worth exploring Alaska, and Roy Cooper must run in NC in 26.
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Cruz could be in trouble, he consistantly polls behind Trump, and just isn't very liked in the state, nor the world, for that matter.

I posted something about Texas last page, some interesting read, not all of it encouraging, but on the whole, not bad.

NC is a pick-up opportunity in 2026, Alaska probably less so, but lets see.
 
Raoul said:
That's correct. He has nothing to do with Tester or the conditions in Montana, which are very different than Maryland.
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Come on, outside specific examples, people don't split tickets like they did in the past.

You get my point.

There is a reason there isn't a senator Bullock, senator Bredesen, and so on.
 
Morty_ said:
Come on, outside specific examples, people don't split tickets like they did in the past.

You get my point.

There is a reason there isn't a senator Bullock, senator Bredesen, and so on.
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I don't even know what your point is here. Tester and Hogan are very different politicians in different states that have different constituencies and cultures.
 
Don is not a fan

trumptaylor.png
 
Raoul said:
I don't even know what your point is here. Tester and Hogan are very different politicians in different states that have different constituencies and cultures.
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Its increased partisanship, as i have said many times here before.

Extinction of dem senators in red states, exctinction of republican senators in democratic states, its not just a theory, you know, its something that has been going on for a while now.

Tester and Hogan elections are different, but not really, at the end of the day, if anything, Tester is favored more to win re-election than Hogan is to win his senate bid, and that is for good reasons.
 
I know someone who has been in meetings with Cooper and was there when he asked about the Senate. His response was the same as the VP question, which was that he had little interest in pursuing future office. He accomplished what he wanted in NC and it is time to go back to private life.

Now, can/will he change his mind? I guess, and even though he would be a favorite to capture a seat in 26, I respect his convictions on the topic.
 
Morty_ said:
But she isn't ignoring these states, why are we paying attention to this person anyway?
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It's just the point of view of a well-informed observer. He's not saying that Harris is ignoring them. Not ignoring PA, MI and WI may be different from having a laser focus on them.
I think she has the momentum at this point.
 
surf said:
It's just the point of view of a well-informed observer. He's not saying that Harris is ignoring them. Not ignoring PA, MI and WI may be different from having a laser focus on them.
I think she has the momentum at this point.
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Harris can’t just campaign in these 3 states and ignore NC, NV, GA and AZ. What if one of the three disappoints? She has to try in the sun belt just in case 1/3 don’t go her way.
 
ManUtd1999 said:
Harris can’t just campaign in these 3 states and ignore NC, NV, GA and AZ. What if one of the three disappoints? She has to try in the sun belt just in case 1/3 don’t go her way.
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She can if she wants to - it's entirely up to her how she runs her campaign. Campaigning is about making strategic and tactical decisions on where and how you will campaign and use your resources, and what you are going to say. Anyway, it's just Darroch's point of view as an observer.
 
ManUtd1999 said:
Harris can’t just campaign in these 3 states and ignore NC, NV, GA and AZ. What if one of the three disappoints? She has to try in the sun belt just in case 1/3 don’t go her way.
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She should focus on the rust belt and win PA, WI, and MI. If she does, she will very likely win the presidency. That doesn't mean she can't focus on sunbelt states either since NC + NV could mitigate the potential loss of PA.

Interestingly, Trump is ahead in 6 out of 8 polls in GA that were conducted in September, so she will have her work cutout if she's thinking of winning there. And these aren't all right wing polls either. The include the likes of Quinnipiac that have Trump up be 3 and 4 respectively.
 
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Morty_ said:
Partisanship is taking over, Montana senate race was moved from toss-up to lean republican, accodring to cook political report, you aren't going to win a senate race in a 15-20+republican state, as a democrat in this day and age, it just makes sense.

Sherrod better watch out too, it may "only" be 8-10 points lean republican instead, but frankly, the state lost the plot quite some time ago, and they even elected what was essentially "anything with an R next to its name is better than a democrat" in the senate race, less than two years ago.

3-4 point average lead there don't give me much comfort, Brown may very well lose this race.

Without Montana, 49 is most likely the best case sceario for dems, Texas is the most likely out, and in my mind, the most likely path to senate majority for democrats,the trends are going towards democrats in the state.
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Texas has been going towards Democrats since I have been a Caf member, and yet, the closest anyone ever got to winning there was Beto who still lost by 2.5%. So no, Texas is not going blue anytime soon.

To be fair, it is close to impossible to win a state that is 10%+ for the other party. You basically need to be a very popular senator, with a long incumbent history to do so (e.g., Manchin in 2018, Collins in 2020). But even him realized that he will be underdog this time around thus didn’t seek re-election. With Trump in the ticket, Tester will likely lose IMO.
 
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surf said:
Kim Darroch (UK ambassador to the US during the Trump presidency) says that Trump is the likelier winner unless Harris focuses on two things: be more available to talk to the media and have a laser focus on PA, MI and WI. He says that in 2016 H Clinton made the mistake of shutting out the media whereas Trump would talk to anyone at any time.
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I know I'm not saying anything new here, but it continues to amaze me that Trump speaks to anyone, constantly says bizarre and contradictory and simply crazy stuff, and it doesn't cost him anything. Not now, and not in past elections. But it's somehow a huge deal for Harris to speak with media, and even the tiniest faux-pas will cause trouble to her campaign.

I actually get the latter, but it's such a bizarre situation with Trump.
 
nimic said:
That's a troll account. It's probably still the official account for the NH Libertarian Party, but it's also just a troll account. It's no doubt run by some teenager or early 20-something, and it solely exists to wind people up.
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So both a troll account and official account? A bit odd.
 
Revan said:
Texas has been going towards Democrats since I have been a Caf member, and yet, the closest anyone ever got to winning there was Beto who still lost by 2.5%. So no, Texas is not going blue anytime soon.

To be fair, it is close to impossible to win a state that is 10%+ for the other party. You basically need to be a very popular senator, with a long incumbent history to do so (e.g., Manchin in 2018). But even him realized that he will be underdog this time around thus didn’t seek re-election. With Trump in the ticket, Tester will likely lose IMO.
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Most states with large population centers are gradually drifting blue. That's not to say Texas will go blue this time, but it will eventually become a Dem state as its bigger cities continue to grow and become a bigger share of the state's population.
 
Cheimoon said:
I know I'm not saying anything new here, but it continues to amaze me that Trump speaks to anyone, constantly says bizarre and contradictory and simply crazy stuff, and it doesn't cost him anything. Not now, and not in past elections. But it's somehow a huge deal for Harris to speak with media, and even the tiniest faux-pas will cause trouble to her campaign.

I actually get the latter, but it's such a bizarre situation with Trump.
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I presume this is part of the overall cult environment, in that when one rises to cult demi-god status normalcy and accountability evaporates.
 
Raoul said:
Most states with large population centers are gradually drifting blue. That's not to say Texas will go blue this time, but it will eventually become a Dem state as its bigger cities continue to grow and become a bigger share of the state's population.
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I swear we had this discussion in both 2020 and 2016. And in 2018 when Beto raised a mountain of money and still went quite short of winning.

It is gradually shifting blue, same way as how the universe is gradually shifting towards its death. If you want we can bet that GOP will win all senate and President races this decade.
 
Revan said:
I swear we had this discussion in both 2020 and 2016. And in 2018 when Beto raised a mountain of money and still went quite short of winning.

It is gradually shifting blue, same way as how the universe is gradually shifting towards its death. If you want we can bet that GOP will win all senate and President races this decade.
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No not like the universe, more like Virginia, Colorado, Arizona, and Georgia have in recent cycles. You have to bear in mind that demographics in states are in constant flux and TX is not exempt from this reality.
 
Raoul said:
No not like the universe, more like Virginia, Colorado, Arizona, and Georgia have in recent cycles. You have to bear in mind that demographics in states are in constant flux and TX is not exempt from this reality.
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Texas is too far red to change to blue. It would need some dramatic event (e.g., realignment after civil rights) for it to become blue IMO. I am very confident that it won’t happen this or next election.

It probably is something that Dems should spend time on very long-term, cause winning Texas basically means that GOP has no path to winning the presidency without massively pivoting towards the center. But that is something that can happen in next decade, or the one after that.
 
Vance being able to get on tv this morning admitting they have to create disgusting fake stories, and they don't care that they cause real harm, bomb threats to schools. And I bet you will barely hear anything about this in a few days.

It is simply insane. I mean days after the Taylor Swift endorsement trump screaming into the void how much he hates her now? These people are unhinged. On top of being frauds and criminals. But, I bet you can find a "both sides" argument from someone still. It could not be a clearer difference with the outright hate and vitriol these MAGA people have.

They don't give a damn who gets hurt either while pretending to fearmonger their way into power.

If Kamala Harris or Tim Watz got on tv and said they had to make up stories to get people to "focus on issues" it would be over immediately. Vance does exactly that and not only will it not hurt them I bet, but they will steal have their top idiots in the cult actually believing these dumb ass pet stories still.
 
Revan said:
Texas is too far red to change to blue. It would need some dramatic event (e.g., realignment after civil rights) for it to become blue IMO. I am very confident that it won’t happen this or next election.

It probably is something that Dems should spend time on very long-term, cause winning Texas basically means that GOP has no path to winning the presidency without massively pivoting towards the center. But that is something that can happen in next decade, or the one after that.
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Texas is actually primed for Dem gains by way of very large population centers. As mentioned in my previous post, as the Houston and Dallas areas grow and more people from other states move to TX (the recent exodus from California to other states being a prime example) it will diversify the voting base from Red to Blue. If we were talking about Wyoming, North or South Dakota, then your point would be more meaningful since none of them have mega cities. As we've seen with VA (DC suburbs), CO (Denver), AZ (Phoenix), and GA (Atlanta) - each of them have gone from either red or competitive for red and have drifted noticeably blue. Texas is in the same category as those.
 
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