2024 U.S. Elections | Trump wins

Morty_ said:


If you look at some of these state numbers and figure they are off by quite a bit? Well, you are not the only one.

Nate is banking hard on "post-convention"-bump, it might have been in the past, but not necessarily much of a thing anymore.

Question is, if he will adjust, or double down on it, time will tell.
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There's nothing particularly mysterious about Silver's numbers. Harris had a lot of momentum last month because she was new and not Biden. That momentum has since exhausted itself and Trump has made small gains in most swing states. It turns out the Harris convention bump many were expecting actually happened before and during, not after, the convention. The slight percentage disparity in favor of Trump winning is probably down to the simple fact that more things have to go right for her to win, than they do for Trump. If he wins just one rust belt state, her probability of winning suddenly plummets to about 15%, so a lot more can go wrong for her than him.

Still, Silver has the race characterized as a "toss up", which is spot on. We don't know who is winning because most polls are within the margin of error.
 
I guess I just don't understand the logic of a model that says Trump is like 65% likely to win PA when every poll seems to have it tied, at worst.

Also, this pollercoaster stuff is the route to an early grave. Stop it! (says a fellow addict)
 
Raoul said:
There's nothing particularly mysterious about Silver's numbers. Harris had a lot of momentum last month because she was new and not Biden. That momentum has since exhausted itself and Trump has made small gains in most swing states. It turns out the convention bump many were expecting actually happened before and during, not after, the convention. The slight percentage disparity in favor of Trump winning is probably down to the simple fact that more things have to go right for her to win, than they do for Trump. If he wins just one rust belt state, her probability of winning suddenly plummets to about 15%, so a lot more can go wrong for her than him.

Still, Silver has the race characterized as a "toss up", which is spot on. We don't know who is winning because most polls are within the margin of error.
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Silver admits himself this is largely about post-convention bumps(or lack of), his model will then naturally assumes that Harris will crater further from where she is currently, when there isn't much to back that up right now, hopefully his model adjusts, if polling remains as of now.

As far as swing state polling, its all close, but he keeps including low-rated pollsters like Trafalgar, he knew they were bad in 2022, he knows they are bad now, it feels like he is committing to the same mistakes, as he did a couple of years ago.

The polling has changed very little in battlegrounds for a while, but his model is the only one that has changed rather drastically, again, because he is giving Trump an in-built advantage in absence of no Harris convention-bump.
 
Beachryan said:
I guess I just don't understand the logic of a model that says Trump is like 65% likely to win PA when every poll seems to have it tied, at worst.

Also, this pollercoaster stuff is the route to an early grave. Stop it! (says a fellow addict)
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The logic is that Harris should get like a couple of points bump, due to the convention, so he substract a couple of points from dems in the meantime.

Lets see if it changes in a couple of weeks.
 
Beachryan said:
I guess I just don't understand the logic of a model that says Trump is like 65% likely to win PA when every poll seems to have it tied, at worst.

Also, this pollercoaster stuff is the route to an early grave. Stop it! (says a fellow addict)
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PA may simply be a case of Harris not having any favorable polls there in two weeks. Once more come out, she will probably regain some momentum. Silver did a piece last week about why she is lagging there.

https://www.natesilver.net/p/pennsylvania-may-be-a-problem-for

There’s another, longer-term concern for Harris, though: it’s been a while since we’ve seen a poll showing her ahead in Pennsylvania, which is the tipping-point state more than a third of time in our model. Today, in fact, we added one post-DNC poll showing Pennsylvania as a tie, and another (conducted during the DNC) showing either a tie or Trump +1, depending on what version you prefer.

The model puts a lot of weight on this recent data because of all the changes in the race. And you can see why it thinks this is a problem for her: if she’s only tied in Pennsylvania now, during what should be one of her stronger polling periods, that implies being a slight underdog in November.
 
Morty_ said:
Silver admits himself this is largely about post-convention bumps(or lack of), his model will then naturally assumes that Harris will crater further from where she is currently, when there isn't much to back that up right now, hopefully his model adjusts, if polling remains as of now.

As far as swing state polling, its all close, but he keeps including low-rated pollsters like Trafalgar, he knew they were bad in 2022, he knows they are bad now, it feels like he is committing to the same mistakes, as he did a couple of years ago.

The polling has changed very little in battlegrounds for a while, but his model is the only one that has changed rather drastically, again, because he is giving Trump an in-built advantage in absence of no Harris convention-bump.
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He keeps all pollsters in his model. If you subscribe to his site you can see how he rates and weights them appropriately based on past performance. As noted above, the forecast fluctuates because of a lack of recent polling.
 
Comrade Kamala Harris :lol:
I cant believe this guy has a great chance of winning.
 


GWuQgNhWIAA72UO
 
Every time a poll aggregator model is discussed here I remember the scene with the Jenga blocks in The Big Short. I assume there are tools to know how reliable every poll is, but there isn't any to know how reliable those tools are.
 




Looks all okay, bit disappointed that Allred isn't outpolling Harris, he needs to do that, in order to win here.
Florida senate race i can't believe is real though, way too rosy for dems, and emerson is hardly a pollster that favors dems too much.
 
Florida polls tend to be tight for Democrats until the actual results come in, revealing the state has shifted solidly red. This has been the pattern for the past few election cycles. Texas is similar, but this time, Democrats aren’t even close in the polls.
 
The United said:
Florida polls tend to be tight for Democrats until the actual results come in, revealing the state has shifted solidly red. This has been the pattern for the past few election cycles. Texas is similar, but this time, Democrats aren’t even close in the polls.
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i'd say a 4 point race is quite close though, if Allred can run ahead of Kamala by like 2 points in the polls, its margin of error-territory, and Texas polls don't tend to overestimate republicans much, unlike in Florida.

It comes down to how effective he is able to campaign now, in september and October.
 
The United said:
Florida polls tend to be tight for Democrats until the actual results come in, revealing the state has shifted solidly red. This has been the pattern for the past few election cycles. Texas is similar, but this time, Democrats aren’t even close in the polls.
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For Texas:

2012: +16
2016: +9
2020: +5.5

The fact that Harris is within 4 points shows that she is close enough. Same for Allred. Trump and Cruz are the favorites there, of course, but the two Dems seem to be doing well enough so far in the campaign. We’ll see what happens in November, but so far I have reasons to believe that the Democrats have a shot there.
 
ManUtd1999 said:
For Texas:

2012: +16
2016: +9
2020: +5.5

The fact that Harris is within 4 points shows that she is close enough. Same for Allred. Trump and Cruz are the favorites there, of course, but the two Dems seem to be doing well enough so far in the campaign. We’ll see what happens in November, but so far I have reasons to believe that the Democrats have a shot there.
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Thats a good point, also, a main take-away from all of these polls is that Cruz is consistently behind Trump by a couple of points, and he almost never breaks 50%.

Cruz is definitely favorite, but those couple of points he is behind top of the ticket, could prove crucial.
 
Precaution said:
All that Wisconsin cheese makes you a Trump fan I guess, don't worry, I'll give you a bit of Louisiana Tabasco to help you out ;)
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A. Cheese
B. Do not even joke about that.
C. Not in WI anymore, those winters man.....
D. Cheese
E. Louisiana hot sauce? Sign me up!
 
Election interference right out there in the open, "judges" says Trump is untouchable until after the election.
 
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