2024 U.S. Elections | Trump wins

Wing Attack Plan R said:
Good piece on this, today:

despite what numerous misleading polls have been showing (and with most of the news media reacting purely off those polls) – Harris’s selection will largely shore up the weaknesses that were dragging down Biden’s poll numbers.

and

Biden received 65% of the Latino vote in 2020, and 87% of the Black vote (no Democratic nominee has ever received less than 83% of the Black vote since the advent of race-specific exit polling in 1976). Either there has been a cataclysmic decline of support for Biden among voters of color, or the pollsters just aren’t that good at surveying people of color, or people of color are expressing their current lack of enthusiasm, which is a very different thing than how they will ultimately vote in November.

If, in fact, support for Democrats among people of color is the principal problem, then putting Harris at the top of the ticket is a master stroke.

https://www.theguardian.com/comment.../kamala-harris-elecion-masterstroke-democrats
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That’s an incredible stat.
 
ManUtd1999 said:
Yes. I like Shapiro, but others would be better fits. We need to make sure that the war in Gaza less of an issue, because the reality is that it is.
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Agreed. @Raoul it might be true you won't get much variance but some candidates will bring the issue to mind a lot quicker than others and that's where I think Shapiro is a big mistake to pick him.

berbatrick said:
Shapiro has compared campus protestors to the KKK and signed a bill that criminalises universities that divest from Israel. He isn't going to "come out against Israel" any more than Biden.
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All the more reason to avoid this guy as VP pick.

Jev said:
If he can bring her Pennsylvania, I think that outweighs the potential Israel issue. But Kelly could be interesting too, as kind of the bad cop in the whole border discussion where he’s been one of the more outspoken Democrats.
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Revan said:
But Shapiro is very popular in Penn, which I think was polling even worse than Wisconsin and Michigan. He probably brings Penn to Harris, and thus she can spend more resources in the other two.
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I'm very, very skeptical of the notion that this Shapiro guy can just deliver Penn to Harris. I think that sounds like the type of hubris driven mistake that Hilary made in 2016, just thinking picking this guy as VP will give Penn to the Dems. I don't think it will at all.

My other problem with Shapiro is his background is way too similar to Harris. He's another law school graduate that always had political aspirations and worked in nothing but politics. Across the midwest, I think Kelly's background is far more appealing and offers much more balance to Harris than just another lawyer turned young politician. A former Navy captain and an astronaut will have far more appeal to the average "swing" voter than Shapiro IMO. I'd also trust Kelly in a debate against Vance a lot more than Shapiro for precisely this reason, his appeal to the average "middle American".
 
oneniltothearsenal said:
Agreed. @Raoul it might be true you won't get much variance but some candidates will bring the issue to mind a lot quicker than others and that's where I think Shapiro is a big mistake to pick him.



All the more reason to avoid this guy as VP pick.




I'm very, very skeptical of the notion that this Shapiro guy can just deliver Penn to Harris. I think that sounds like the type of hubris driven mistake that Hilary made in 2016, just thinking picking this guy as VP will give Penn to the Dems. I don't think it will at all.

My other problem with Shapiro is his background is way too similar to Harris. He's another law school graduate that always had political aspirations and worked in nothing but politics. Across the midwest, I think Kelly's background is far more appealing and offers much more balance to Harris than just another lawyer turned young politician. A former Navy captain and an astronaut will have far more appeal to the average "swing" voter than Shapiro IMO. I'd also trust Kelly in a debate against Vance a lot more than Shapiro for precisely this reason, his appeal to the average "middle American".
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Shapiro won Penn by 15 points last time around, right? So, I guess he should help her quite a lot in Penn, considering how popular he seems to be there.

I do not disagree with your other points, I think that Kelly would be a fantastic candidate. But I think it is too little, too late for Arizona at this stage. Furthermore, who knows if some other candidate can keep that senate seat in 2 years, and at this stage, the senate seats are more precious than a good VP.
 
africanspur said:
You don't remember a lot of these?
You didn't laugh at Lyin Ted? Even more so when the twat then fell in line afterwards, despite the insults?
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In fairness I didn't hear most of them at the time and in context, so probably falls flatter on the page.
 
Revan said:
Shapiro won Penn by 15 points last time around, right? So, I guess he should help her quite a lot in Penn, considering how popular he seems to be there.

I do not disagree with your other points, I think that Kelly would be a fantastic candidate. But I think it is too little, too late for Arizona at this stage. Furthermore, who knows if some other candidate can keep that senate seat in 2 years, and at this stage, the senate seats are more precious than a good VP.
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I'm not sure that's as relevant as some have made out.

"vice presidential home state advantages are statistically negligible and conditioned on the interactive effect of political experience and state population. Furthermore, the results indicate that the mobilization of new voters primarily accounts for presidential home state advantage, while vice presidential home state advantage is mainly due to the conversion of existing voters. Although home state advantages do occur in presidential elections, according to our analysis a presidential or vice presidential home state advantage has not changed the outcome of any presidential election since 1884."
https://ecommons.udayton.edu/cgi/viewcontent.cgi?article=1082&context=pol_fac_pub

Here's another study that asserts VP picks can add rounghly 2.67 points to their home state and about 2.2 points to a home swing state. So that does show it can make a difference but enough of a difference to sacrifice the opportunity costs? I'm still not convinced.
https://journals.sagepub.com/doi/abs/10.1177/1532673X16642567
 
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Another factor I think will come into play is how the ubiquity of Trump again affects people's views of him. The pandemic put him front and center every day and his act wears thin with that much exposure. I think he's benefitted from being out of the spotlight and off Twitter these last few years. Three more months of non-stop Trump is going to remind some of those independents of exactly who he is. For the non-disciple swing voter, I think he works better as a foil to a bland, normal politician rather than the main attraction.
 
Ekkie Thump said:
Kamala needs to be organising rallies and public appearances as soon and plentifully as possible. I think she's decent on the stump, but struggles in more intimate settings.
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Hopefully yea. She’s been wasting the last 4 years feckin off to LA every other week not doing shit. About time she put in some work.
 
Trump, as always the worst c*nt out there, has filed an FEC complaint to try and stop the Biden/Harris money being used for electing...checks notes...Harris.

While the law is pretty clear, the FEC might take til after November to sort it out.

The man is such a sh*tstain.

Also a GOP congressman from Tennesee has filed articles of impeachment against her.
 
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Beachryan said:
Trump, as always the worst c*nt out there, has filed an FEC complaint to try and stop the Biden/Harris money being used for electing...checks notes...Harris.

While the law is pretty clear, the FEC might take til after November to sort it out.

The man is such a sh*tstain.
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Buckle up, my friends. We have at least 105 more days of this…

I’m already tired of this man. He’s so exhausting.
 
Beachryan said:
Trump, as always the worst c*nt out there, has filed an FEC complaint to try and stop the Biden/Harris money being used for electing...checks notes...Harris.

While the law is pretty clear, the FEC might take til after November to sort it out.

The man is such a sh*tstain.
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If it is pretty clear I think they will take a decision in a week. And she raised +100 millions in 2 days, so she can keep going for a while. They can't hamper the elections with a decision in november. Would not make sense
 
berbatrick said:
shocked, shocked

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Trump may win the presidency. But, if he does, it will be despite Vance, not with the help of Vance. I don’t know who came up with the idea that he would bring moderate/ swing voters from the Rust Belt or elsewhere. A wrong choice.

The way that the party coalesced around Harris reminds me of how the party coalesced around Biden after Super Tuesday in 2020. Everything happened very quickly.
 
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Suedesi said:
So, you think I've lost the plot? Let's recap the week:
  • An assassination attempt on the GOP candidate. Just another day in politics, right?
  • A California lab-grown redneck gets bumped up to #2.
  • The President resigns via tweet, doing a complete 180 and leaving his staff in the dark. Classic leadership move.
  • He doesn’t bother addressing the media or the public. Traditions are overrated, apparently.
(If he's too sick with COVID for a news conference, isn't he too sick to make such decisions?)

Clearly, the plot hasn't been lost. It's just gotten a lot more interesting.
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How is any of that in any way a coup?

  • Someone trying to shoot someone like Trump in a country utterly awash with almost unregulated guns is hardly a surprise. Someone having a shot at Biden would have been only slightly more surprising.
  • Assassination attempts are also not coup attemps unless accompanied by a plot to overthrow a government.
  • Trump chooses an idiot as running mate. No surprise there and his choice. No coup attempt there.
  • Biden pulling out was well known by the press days before and widely reported, so I very much doubt his staff didn't know it was coming. And it was a great way to withdraw his candidacy to be the next President (he didn't resign as President - much less be removed as President by a coup). Covid may have been the excuse but if he had personally spoken and sounded older and croakey it would have hugely distracted from Harris taking over. A good tactical choice imo.

So not even a hint a coup.
 
Raoul said:
Musk already backing down

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Oh, so he doesn't donate to cults of personality. He just creates super PACs to help them. Without considering everything else he has probably twitted since last week. Right.
 
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