2024 U.S. Elections | Trump wins



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It's interesting that as favorably as the last few weeks have gone for Trump, he really hasn't gone up that much in national or battleground state polls. Says a lot about how broken the electoral college system is.
 
shabadu84 said:
It's interesting that as favorably as the last few weeks have gone for Trump, he really hasn't gone up that much in national or battleground state polls. Says a lot about how broken the electoral college system is.
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Because there are few REAL independents anymore that wants to vote for each candidate. At this point most of the voters they know who they will vote and little things will move the needle, but this little things are more against Biden and is making Ds sitting these elections.
 
I'm actually beginning to think the assassination attempt is going to have essentially 0 effect on the election. Or at least no direct effect. It might still force the Dems to run their campaign differently, and it may (or may not, as recent updates suggest) have pushed the "alternate nominee" situation to the back.

The news cycle has basically moved on already.
 
nimic said:
I'm actually beginning to think the assassination attempt is going to have essentially 0 effect on the election. Or at least no direct effect. It might still force the Dems to run their campaign differently, and it may (or may not, as recent updates suggest) have pushed the "alternate nominee" situation to the back.

The news cycle has basically moved on already.
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It 'helped' that the shooter's identity was an anticlimax. A seemingly conservative registered Republican gun loving young man.
 
crappycraperson said:
So strange that establishment Dems are the ones calling for this while progressives are trying to stay with a sinking ship.

@berbatrick what's happening?
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They have the political instincts of Rahul Gandhi in full pappu mode?

I don't know. it's a losing bet.
They've got Biden to announce big progressive policies (court reform, rent control, medical debt, etc) as part of this. This is the first time Biden has talked about anything other than trump/democracy, so at least it's something different. But..
1. Biden is very likely to lose. By tying themselves to him, they will (deservedly) get some blame.
2. If he is replaced, they will have no access to the replacement. She will (rightfully) shut them out.
3. Their base is the only segment that's *livid* over Gaza. They haven't got a word out of him about that. That base has and will erode.
4. In the very unlikely case that Biden wins, and gets majorities in both houses, and feels grateful enough to try and pass this, there's no clear way through the next generation of Manchin, wherever they emerge..

In Bernie's case, he seems to have decided that Biden running on a relatively progressive platform in 2020 and then passing half a climate bill is going to be his (Bernie's) legacy. He seems happy with Biden, and in any case, has no political future. AOC? I have no idea what she's thinking.
 
shabadu84 said:
It's interesting that as favorably as the last few weeks have gone for Trump, he really hasn't gone up that much in national or battleground state polls. Says a lot about how broken the electoral college system is.
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Trump: very high floor, but not that high of a ceiling. This has been the case since he stormed the political arena.

And so it’s hard to beat him, but it’s also hard for him to win. Hence the uncertainty about the outcome of the election.
 
nimic said:
I'm actually beginning to think the assassination attempt is going to have essentially 0 effect on the election. Or at least no direct effect. It might still force the Dems to run their campaign differently, and it may (or may not, as recent updates suggest) have pushed the "alternate nominee" situation to the back.

The news cycle has basically moved on already.
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So far, and surprisingly, Trump and Republicans more generally haven’t made much of an issue of this assassination attempt as I thought they would. I also think that the RNC timing is playing a role.

But I expect it to come back later in the cycle.
 
ManUtd1999 said:
So far, and surprisingly, Trump and Republicans more generally haven’t made much of an issue of this assassination attempt as I thought they would. I also think that the RNC timing is playing a role.

But I expect it to come back later in the cycle.
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I also wonder if the gun lobby folks got to them. If this was an immigrant, they would be all over it, but since it's a right wing, white conservative family, who do they blame it on? Certainly not the guns. Best to move on.
 
MarylandMUFan said:
I also wonder if the gun lobby folks got to them. If this was an immigrant, they would be all over it, but since it's a right wing, white conservative family, who do they blame it on? Certainly not the guns. Best to move on.
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Would have been ideal if it was a purple haired leftist but never mind. They got what they needed, a photo and a rallying cry. Don't need a "they" to rally against here. Definitely not in their interest to speak out against political violence when that's a primary selling point of Trumpism. Revenge for this and all other perceived slights will be even more accepted by the media as a normal part of politics.
 
berbatrick said:
@crappycraperson
timing!


given that it's chotiner, it usually is a slaughter, and twitter should have the screenshots soon. (article itself is paywalled)

e - thread with screenshots
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In all honesty it's a fine, candid interview. It's not a slaughter but Sanders doesn't make a coherent case (in my opinion). Basically he argues that Biden's already been the best president for the working class in modern history and that his program going forward is even more promising. He'd rather a president that helps people and can't speak than a president that can speak but can't help people. Chotiner responds that the guy has to get elected first. Sanders doesn't really have a good response to that other than blaming the media, colleagues and the Biden campaign for not focussing on the substance of what Biden has and will do.
 
berbatrick said:
@crappycraperson
timing!


given that it's chotiner, it usually is a slaughter, and twitter should have the screenshots soon. (article itself is paywalled)

e - thread with screenshots
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Like the quote that's going to get the most airing is this one:
Bernie said:
“I’m not aware that anyone thinks that Joe Biden is the best candidate in the history of the world, or that he’s an ideal candidate, and nobody will argue with you that he has a … [trails off] He admitted it. Sometimes he gets confused about names. You’re right - sometimes he doesn’t put three sentences together. It is true. But the reality of the moment is, in my view, he is the best candidate the Democrats have for a variety of reasons, and trying, in an unprecedented way, to take him off the ticket would do a lot more harm than good”
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That's not a ringing endorsement, but dig further and his reasoning would be more persuasive in a more rational world:
bernie interview said:
Sanders: I have been critical of the Biden campaign—above and beyond the debate, which everybody understands was a disaster. The truth of the matter is Biden’s record, in my view, is the strongest record of any President in modern American history. I don’t think they’ve done a particularly good job of getting that out. I’ve been extremely critical of this and I see it beginning to change now—it’s not good enough just to talk about what you’ve done in the last three and a half years. The American people are hurting. Sixty per cent of our people live paycheck to paycheck. Young people are worried, appropriately, about climate change; women are worried about their reproductive rights. What the President has got to do is get out there and say, “You know what? You reëlect me, give me a Democratic House, give me a Democratic Senate, and let me tell you what we’re going to do.” Did you happen to hear the speech in Detroit on Friday?

Chotiner: I did.

Sanders: I thought that was, between you and me, an excellent speech. And I think it was the kind of speech that he needs to take all over this country. He talked about an agenda for the first hundred days, which speaks to the needs of a long-forgotten working class in this country. And he’s prepared to take on powerful special interests. If he does that, he’s going to win this election.

Chotiner: To merge the question about him selling his agenda with the question about his age: I watched President Biden with Lester Holt Monday night, and I watched him on “360 with Speedy Morman,” and he is definitely getting out there more than he was the night after the debate. But just to be honest, Senator, I mean, the guy has trouble completing a single sentence.

Sanders: He does.
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and
Bernie interview said:
Clotiner: And then there’s this substantive question about whether he can be President for four more years. You have no concerns about that?

Sanders: Look, I have concerns about everything, you know? And everybody should have concerns about everything. As a nation, we do a very poor job, both in Congress and in the media, of focussing on issues that impact the working class. So I would much prefer to have somebody who can’t put three sentences together who is setting forth an agenda that speaks to the needs of working-class people: raising the minimum wage, making it easier for workers to join unions, dealing with the existential threat of climate change, protecting women’s reproductive rights, building millions of units of affordable housing—

Clotiner: Right, but you have to get elected for all these things to happen.

Sanders: All right, but I am saying that the American people are not stupid and they understand that substance matters. They understand what you have accomplished and what you want to accomplish is enormously important. And my criticism of the media, and some of my colleagues in Congress, is that we’re not focussing on that. So let’s focus on substance.
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Problem is America is increasingly irrational. In all honesty I think Bernie might be overestimating the American people.

^^^That's not quite what I meant. Like, it would be more rational to focus on policy, but if its proponent can't communicate it and may be unable to see it through of what use is the program?
 
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Ekkie Thump said:
Problem is America is increasingly irrational. In all honesty I think Bernie might be overestimating the American people.
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It's all vibes. And the vibes around Biden now are that he's old and that he's to blame for the inflation since 2021 (which he is in part, the Fed in a larger part, but generally his entire administration wishfully thinking it was just transitory). A different candidate that isn't old will assuage that concern of the public, and could even potentially distance themselves from the inflation issue.

Plus, the part Bernie says that Biden needs to get out there and deliver the message about all his accomplishments, that's what Biden can't do because he physically can't handle that tough a schedule, and his public speaking is getting worse and worse.
 
Ekkie Thump said:
Problem is America is increasingly irrational. In all honesty I think Bernie might be overestimating the American people.
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I know what you mean but I think "underestimating" has overly negative connotations. Not everyone has the time on their hands to be knew deep in policies and DC gossip.

The #1 problem Democrats have is misunderstanding people in general and that leads to poor messaging in spite of politics that are almost always more to the masses.

Most people have more basic needs and worries. They need the byproducts of a healthy democracy but I don't think it's entirely on them to think about politics non-stop like some of the rest of us when life itself can be so difficult to just survive.

Republicans are the opposite, they message to animate people's basest instincts and know they can still be successful given the structure of local/state/federal elections. Trump's biggest success has been hijacking this for himself.
 
MTF said:
It's all vibes. And the vibes around Biden now are that he's old and that he's to blame for the inflation since 2021 (which he is in part, the Fed in a larger part, but generally his entire administration wishfully thinking it was just transitory). A different candidate that isn't old will assuage that concern of the public, and could even potentially distance themselves from the inflation issue.

Plus, the part Bernie says that Biden needs to get out there and deliver the message about all his accomplishments, that's what Biden can't do because he physically can't handle that tough a schedule, and his public speaking is getting worse and worse.
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Yeah, you and @shabadu84 are both correct. I realised that what I typed really didn't reflect what I actually thought so edited it. It's perfectly rational to doubt the ability of a man that struggles to communicate.
 
Sweet Square said:
Does Sander at all mention Gaza in that interview?
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He does and I'm not entirely sure what to make of it:
Bernie interview said:
Clotiner: In an NBC poll from this past weekend, sixty-two per cent of all Democrats say that Biden should not be the Party’s nominee. Of Democrats who voted for you or Elizabeth Warren in the 2020 primary, that number is eighty per cent. There seems to be a gap between very progressive voters, who seem even more eager for Biden to leave, and progressives like yourself in Congress. How do you understand that?

Sanders: I think it’s a couple of factors. I think there’s no question that many of my supporters—and I can’t speak about Elizabeth—but my supporters are very upset, and justifiably so, at the President for his position on the war in Gaza. And I pointed that out in my op-ed. I think what’s going on there is a humanitarian horror show. I think Netanyahu should not get another nickel, but that is not the White House’s position. And I think there are a lot of people, young people, people of color, who are very unhappy with the President for that—and I should say the Democratic Party as a whole.

Clotiner: Biden said in an interview on Monday that he’d done more for Palestinians than anyone, which made me a little concerned.

Sanders: Look, this war is a total disaster. What’s going on in Gaza is unspeakable.

Clotiner: It’s unspeakable. But Biden saying that had me a little concerned.

Sanders: Well, I think what he was perhaps talking about—he is reiterating the goal of a two-state solution. And what’s not talked about enough, by the way—I’ve been critical of the Administration from Day One on this war, but you know what? The President at least believes that we ought to feed starving children in Gaza and get humanitarian aid there. You’ve got Republicans who don’t even want humanitarian aid to go in there. Maybe somebody would want to talk about that as well. Maybe that’s what he means. I don’t know.
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Ekkie Thump said:
He does and I'm not entirely sure what to make of it:
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Thanks for the quotes. Yep it’s a very strange answer. The bit about Biden at least wanting to feed kids in Palestinian isn’t really true and ignores all the funding all bombs to Israel. The Republicans are worse line at the end is also terrible.

Pretty weak stuff from Bernie imo.
 
Rado_N said:
“Nice country you guys have got here; be a shame if anything were to happen to it…”
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Laurencio said:
I'm sure the west will be fine without Taiwanese microprocessor units, right?



seems like an off-ramp to me...
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Yeah going to be interesting to see how it plays out. TSMC are planning to build a big semiconductor plant in Arizona(Although most of the funding is from the US government).

Could just be another meaningless Trump stunt.
 
gaffs said:
You think Trump is out there trying to help baristas in California and New York? No. He doesn't want to increase minimum wages in places like Florida, where it is $3.02. Im sure his buddys and donors, like Sheldon Adelson, all agree.

Every person is different, but i think those on the lower end of the scale are living month to month and wont be able to save for the future, so it is important to show proper earnings for SS. You are probably right in saying that in the long term, they are better off from the tax savings, but can you trust people to have saved that money? If they haven't, they will be on their arse come retirement age.
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Yeah, Trump doesn't care one iota for any workers. That line just stands out on his policy document because it's the only line that has broader appeal outside the MAGA cultists and religious fundamentalist extremists.
 
Laurencio said:
seems like an off-ramp to me...
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Guy says something different every time he’s asked that question. Just the usual ramblings, I think. Schiff breaking ranks is not insignificant, though. I think Biden would have dropped out by now without the assassination attempt.
 
Sweet Square said:
Yeah going to be interesting to see how it plays out. TSMC are planning to build a big semiconductor plant in Arizona(Although most of the funding is from the US government).

Could just be another meaningless Trump stunt.
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It was a wide-ranging interview by Bloomberg, mostly on economic/market related topics. They asked him about it (I wish they didn't) and he answered the way he always does if you ask him if the US should defend anyone (exception Israel). I just point it out to express that this wasn't something he said unprompted, they just asked him the question. The effects obviously are already being felt with semiconductor company stocks down anywhere from 5-8% today (except Intel which makes most chips in the US & Israel).
 
MTF said:
It was a wide-ranging interview by Bloomberg, mostly on economic/market related topics. They asked him about it (I wish they didn't) and he answered the way he always does if you ask him if the US should defend anyone (exception Israel). I just point it out to express that this wasn't something he said unprompted, they just asked him the question. The effects obviously are already being felt with semiconductor company stocks down anywhere from 5-8% today (except Intel which makes most chips in the US & Israel).
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Thanks for this.
 
Ekkie Thump said:
Like the quote that's going to get the most airing is this one:

That's not a ringing endorsement, but dig further and his reasoning would be more persuasive in a more rational world:

and


Problem is America is increasingly irrational. In all honesty I think Bernie might be overestimating the American people.

^^^That's not quite what I meant. Like, it would be more rational to focus on policy, but if its proponent can't communicate it and may be unable to see it through of what use is the program?
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thanks!!
Sweet Square said:
Thanks for the quotes. Yep it’s a very strange answer. The bit about Biden at least wanting to feed kids in Palestinian isn’t really true and ignores all the funding all bombs to Israel. The Republicans are worse line at the end is also terrible.

Pretty weak stuff from Bernie imo.
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my read from that is he basically doesn't have an answer, and, because of his usually very straightforward pitch when selling his own platform, couldn't do any good spin for biden on the spot.
 
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