2024 U.S. Elections | Trump wins

Raoul said:
Top rated pollster.

This will no doubt affirm Biden's confidence to stay in.

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This plus the fact that they don’t have a clear front runner should Biden step aside, I don’t think Biden will go anywhere.

Not sure how the Biden admin can control the media narrative until Election Day.
 
iKnowNothing said:
This plus the fact that they don’t have a clear front runner should Biden step aside, I don’t think Biden will go anywhere.

Not sure how the Biden admin can control the media narrative until Election Day.
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I mean, that tweet you’re quoting shows the most obvious alternative is polling better.
 
iKnowNothing said:
This plus the fact that they don’t have a clear front runner should Biden step aside, I don’t think Biden will go anywhere.

Not sure how the Biden admin can control the media narrative until Election Day.
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There is always time for things to change.....for the worse.

Donor money will dry up, republicans will start spending more money in the swing states from august(and they are already up in basically all of them already), and Biden can shit the bed in yet another debate, as he has committed to one in september(dear lord).
 
Jev said:
I mean, that tweet you’re quoting shows the most obvious alternative is polling better.
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In a hypothetical poll involving someone not in the race. I wouldn't believe any of those numbers until you have two candidates who are definitely facing off against one another, at which point the choice of voters becomes much more credible.
 
Will Biden nail his "big boy" press conference?

More importantly, what kind of reward will he be given if he answers a question somewhat reasonable?
 
I think the decision had been taken already. They are just deciding who will be the nominee and how to anoint him/her. But they need to have it all tied up to not look like a pack of hyenas on the nomination
 
Harris would be a decent choice had she not completely disappeared for the last 4 years, I've not seen her do anything of note once whereas before we had Pence memes galore, she was so great at self promotion being the first black female VP but went completely off the radar since, I think her literal high was being on the Daily Show with Trevor Noah
 
Precaution said:
Harris would be a decent choice had she not completely disappeared for the last 4 years, I've not seen her do anything of note once whereas before we had Pence memes galore, she was so great at self promotion being the first black female VP but went completely off the radar since, I think her literal high was being on the Daily Show with Trevor Noah
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Still a better shot at this than Biden, and get some governor from a swing state as VP, again, its way better than just doing nothing imo.
 
Raoul said:
In a hypothetical poll involving someone not in the race. I wouldn't believe any of those numbers until you have two candidates who are definitely facing off against one another, at which point the choice of voters becomes much more credible.
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I don’t believe hypothetical polls are trustworthy either, although usually they heavily favour the non-hypothetical option. Just seemed like a strange point from which to argue that Biden is the best bet.

As things stand, reasonable or not, this narrative is completely overshadowing Biden’s campaign and weighing it down. Any alternative candidate would not be burdened by that and thus would almost by default have a better shot.
 
Jev said:
I don’t believe hypothetical polls are trustworthy either, although usually they heavily favour the non-hypothetical option. Just seemed like a strange point from which to argue that Biden is the best bet.

As things stand, reasonable or not, this narrative is completely overshadowing Biden’s campaign and weighing it down. Any alternative candidate would not be burdened by that and thus would almost by default have a better shot.
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They don't favor of disfavor either side. They just aren't a real representation of how someone would vote because the person being asked is deprived of making a choice based on a realistic scenario because, in this case, Harris isn't running. This is also why all the Michelle Obama polls are pure nonsense. Its a bit like attempting to trade a stock market account with paper money. The decision making psychology is completely different when there's no risk.
 
Raoul said:
They don't favor of disfavor either side. They just aren't a real representation of how someone would vote because the person being asked is deprived of making a choice based on a realistic scenario because, in this case, Harris isn't running. This is also why all the Michelle Obama polls are pure nonsense. Its a bit like attempting to trade a stock market account with paper money. The decision making psychology is completely different when there's no risk.
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Nah, name recognition is a huge factor with these hypothetical polls, and usually the non-hypothetical option has more of it.
 
Jev said:
Nah, name recognition is a huge factor with these hypothetical polls, and usually the non-hypothetical option has more of it.
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That's precisely it. The name recognition factor is more important than whether someone is actually willing to go into the voting booth and vote for someone. They are two completely different things, which is why the Harris numbers aren't legit. That's even before we get to the fact that she has not yet been bombarded with negative narratives from Trump and his MAGA flock.
 
Raoul said:
That's precisely it. The name recognition factor is more important than whether someone is actually willing to go into the voting booth and vote for someone. They are two completely different things, which is why the Harris numbers aren't legit. That's even before we get to the fact that she has not yet been bombarded with negative narratives from Trump and his MAGA flock.
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I don’t think we disagree. Like I said, I don’t think hypothetical polls should be given much weight, which means they also can’t be used to argue Biden is best placed to beat Trump (as seems to be the Biden canpaign’s latest strategy).
 
I think the Biden admin put too much focus on the “big boy” press conference. They were cornered to by his debate performance. The press will be looking at this like vultures.
 
iKnowNothing said:
If Dems manage to pull this off, they can target the Rs to “do the right thing“ and ditch the convicted felon. At least this can be the narrative in all the ads, hoping to pull the fence sitters away.
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I don't think that will work, did republicans ever have real discussions over having Trump dropping out, be it in 16, 20 or now, despite all the fecked up things he said or did?

No, because Trump being crazy is what they love about him, he is never going below 45%, even if Barrack Obama himself could run again.

Focus on turning out your own base, and the independents, republican voters? They are long gone.
 
https://split-ticket.org/2024/07/10/we-polled-the-nation-heres-what-we-found/

The headline is the Trump-Biden and Trump-Harris polling. It's all essentially tied - not more than a point in it either way for any of the matchups.

More interesting is the generic ballot. Overall it's Dem +3.
Some of the details within that generic ballot are exactly as expected: A Republican running on an anti-abortion message is deep underwater in the generic ballot (Dems are +11 vs anti-abortion Republican). Also +10 vs Republicans who say 2020 was stolen.
There's also a surprisingly strong Gaza effect: a pro-ceasefire Dem rises to +6 against a pro-Israel Republican, while it's tied if both support Israel.

@Morty_
I don't trust data for progress, but the guys running split ticket are the exact type of left-punching careerists that I hope would be very careful about these polls. My sense from this, and from the senate polls which still look good for Dems, is that if Biden is the nominee, some voters would go for Trump and the Democratic senator/rep to keep Trump in check? But that wouldn't explain the utter panic from swing-state Dems right now.

e - the methodological note at the end is interesting too, and backs up the perception of Black, Hispanic, and young voters moving right, driven not by a swing, but by people who hadn't voted last time. Makes a lot of sense given the economic mood.
 
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Morty_ said:
Will Biden nail his "big boy" press conference?

More importantly, what kind of reward will he be given if he answers a question somewhat reasonable?
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If he answers every question, Jill will take him for ice cream.
 
berbatrick said:
https://split-ticket.org/2024/07/10/we-polled-the-nation-heres-what-we-found/

The headline is the Trump-Biden and Trump-Harris polling. It's all essentially tied - not more than a point in it either way for any of the matchups.

More interesting is the generic ballot. Overall it's Dem +3.
Some of the details within that generic ballot are exactly as expected: A Republican running on an anti-abortion message is deep underwater in the generic ballot (Dems are +11 vs anti-abortion Republican). Also +10 vs Republicans who say 2020 was stolen.
There's also a surprisingly strong Gaza effect: a pro-ceasefire Dem rises to +6 against a pro-Israel Republican, while it's tied if both support Israel.

@Morty_
I don't trust data for progress, but the guys running split ticket are the exact type of left-punching careerists that I hope would be very careful about these polls. My sense from this, and from the senate polls which still look good for Dems, is that if Biden is the nominee, some voters would go for Trump and the Democratic senator/rep to keep Trump in check? But that wouldn't explain the utter panic from swing-state Dems right now.

e - the methodological note at the end is interesting too, and backs up the perception of Black, Hispanic, and young voters moving right, driven not by a swing, but by people who hadn't voted last time. Makes a lot of sense given the economic mood.
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Maybe the panic is mostly a media narrative, which some have fallen for.
 
berbatrick said:
https://split-ticket.org/2024/07/10/we-polled-the-nation-heres-what-we-found/

The headline is the Trump-Biden and Trump-Harris polling. It's all essentially tied - not more than a point in it either way for any of the matchups.

More interesting is the generic ballot. Overall it's Dem +3.
Some of the details within that generic ballot are exactly as expected: A Republican running on an anti-abortion message is deep underwater in the generic ballot (Dems are +11 vs anti-abortion Republican). Also +10 vs Republicans who say 2020 was stolen.
There's also a surprisingly strong Gaza effect: a pro-ceasefire Dem rises to +6 against a pro-Israel Republican, while it's tied if both support Israel.

@Morty_
I don't trust data for progress, but the guys running split ticket are the exact type of left-punching careerists that I hope would be very careful about these polls. My sense from this, and from the senate polls which still look good for Dems, is that if Biden is the nominee, some voters would go for Trump and the Democratic senator/rep to keep Trump in check? But that wouldn't explain the utter panic from swing-state Dems right now.

e - the methodological note at the end is interesting too, and backs up the perception of Black, Hispanic, and young voters moving right, driven not by a swing, but by people who hadn't voted last time. Makes a lot of sense given the economic mood.
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Just common sense though, is it not?

To assume Biden isn't going to be a drag downballot would be to say this election is totally different from the others in recent past.

Since 08, the only time a winning president doesn't end up with a trifecta is 2012, and when was the last time a losing president actually have his party gain seats, let alone flip chambers?

One follows the other, and there has been some tightening in the recent polls, Tester was down in the latest Montana poll, i believe Baldwin was tied in Wisconsin, Casey only up by 1 in Pennsylvania, Gallego tied with Lake.
 
iKnowNothing said:
If Dems manage to pull this off, they can target the Rs to “do the right thing“ and ditch the convicted felon. At least this can be the narrative in all the ads, hoping to pull the fence sitters away.
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Republicans can't ditch Trump, he will have to agree to step aside. Just like they are trying to convince Biden to do. There is zero shot Trump will do it, he has no incentive to. Only long shot I see for same is if Dems to replace Biden and Trump is trailing far behind in polls, and potentially looking at a jail sentence due to pending cases (possibly unlikely due to SC recent ruling). Then he agrees to step aside for some Republican with better chance under the condition that he will be pardoned.
 
Morty_ said:
I don't think that will work, did republicans ever have real discussions over having Trump dropping out, be it in 16, 20 or now, despite all the fecked up things he said or did?

No, because Trump being crazy is what they love about him, he is never going below 45%, even if Barrack Obama himself could run again.

Focus on turning out your own base, and the independents, republican voters? They are long gone.
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The hardcore MAGA Rs are not going to have a change of heart, but I’m hoping some of the independents who grudgingly vote for Trump because they hate Biden more than Trump might be a little more circumspect and vote Dem or at least stay away.

As I type it, who am i kidding, no way Rs are coming around.
 
Cook political report is being kinda generous, as in they didn't move Pennsylvania "Lean R" too, considering RCP average has its 5 point for Trump now, even outperforming polling can only happen so much.

Game over without that state for Biden, Michigan and Wisconsin won't matter.
 
Kamala polling better against Trump than Biden is really embarrassing for Biden. He surely has to step down.
 
Morty_ said:
Cook political report is being kinda generous, as in they didn't move Pennsylvania "Lean R" too, considering RCP average has its 5 point for Trump now, even outperforming polling can only happen so much.

Game over without that state for Biden, Michigan and Wisconsin won't matter.
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If Trump gets Pennsylvania he will get Michigan and Wisconsin too, those three states always go the same way. I can't believe how badly Biden is doing in Nevada, which is supposed to be a blue state really. Awful signs.
 
The democratic party are a collection of some of the biggest cowards in the world of politics. I'm more and more convinced they only win elections because it's a two party system and their opponents are just batshit crazy. They are completely spineless and uninspiring. It's painful to watch.
 
maniak said:
The democratic party are a collection of some of the biggest cowards in the world of politics. I'm more and more convinced they only win elections because it's a two party system and their opponents are just batshit crazy. They are completely spineless and uninspiring. It's painful to watch.
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Also gerrymandering in the house, blue states vs red states.

You don't see most members opposing Biden, cause they are almost all typically in blue districts/states, so what do they care? Almost as if they don't believe themselves Trump is an existential threat.
 
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