You've been very vocally content with the Walz pick, so why is it back to Shapiro being a no brainer? Either he's a no brainer, and all other picks are obviously wrong, or he isn't.
2024 U.S. Elections | Trump v Harris
- Thread starter Raoul
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You've been very vocally content with the Walz pick, so why is it back to Shapiro being a no brainer? Either he's a no brainer, and all other picks are obviously wrong, or he isn't.
That remains to be seen if it’s going to problem with the younger generation - the Israel issue. The dems surely should have been harsher on the Israel issue to appease the younger generation but I think they are also trying to woo some of the Republican voters who are undecided. At least if they seem like they are supporting Israel they have a chance with those voters across the aisle.
If we can't possibly learn anything from the past in this case, it just comes down to opinion and guesswork. Me saying Shapiro wouldn't have delivered PA is just as meaningful as you saying he would have. I think I will take the word of the political scientists on this.
And again, if this was such a no-brainer why didn't Harris just pick him? Can she not read the EC map or what is going on?
In the days preceding Harris' VP selection, there was a twitter dust up about whether Shapiro (who is Jewish) would be more pro-Israel than other candidates. The reality is all these guys have very similar views on the subject and also have to conform to Harris' view, so it wouldn't have mattered in the end, especially if Harris loses the election because she can't win in PA. She has to get to 270, and losing PA to Trump gives him a 91% chance of winning the election in most models.
Maybe he feels like Shapiro was a slightly better choice, but that Walz was also a very decent choice?
This seems to be to most crucial indicator of how PA will go, isn't it? Are Polls adjusting for this data?
If Dems hit 400K firewall by Oct 29th, does it guarantee a win? Is 400K the correct threshold?
Seems very promising.
If this measure is accurate, Dems should put all early campaign dollars to PA, MI, WI and then put remaining to GA, AZ prior closer to election day.
one of those that hasn't been mentioned before but could have (and should still) sink him
It doesn’t guarantee anything. Republicans will get a big turnout on voting day so just cause there are mail in ballots now towards dems doesn’t mean they will win next month.
AZ might be a toss up but i don’t see GA going blue this time around.
The reporting about why is because she felt more comfortable with Walz, which is usually the reason most VPs are selected in the end. There was also some stray voltage suggesting Shapiro was negotiating what his role would be when they interviewed, whereas Walz wasn't angling for anything. In the end, I think Harris just prefers the personality dynamic she has with Walz. Shapiro would've been a bit more of a VP who was in perpetual competition with his boss. But as mentioned before, none of this will matter is she loses PA.
Agreed. That's pretty much what happened last time as well.
Perhaps. If so, "no brainer" wasn't the right choice of words.
It’s funny how these sort of issues only come back to bite Dems and not Republicans.
It was absolutely the correct choice given the importance of PA and the repercussions of Harris losing the election.
Geez man this is a forum where people post their opinion and are allowed to change their opinion. This isn’t some interrogation.
So Harris knowingly chose to diminish her chances of winning by a good amount, because she wasn't really vibing with Shapiro. That's quite a blunder.
Asking someone - once - to clarify their position is an interrogation? Am I reading this correctly? Raoul is a big boy, he can handle himself.
Hey there, better not ask them to clarify their position as well.
I don’t think you are. I didn’t say it IS an interrogation. Written medium comes across differently to differently people. So your “tone” came off like something you would use in an interrogation is what I meant.
They’re also charisma blackholes.
Yeah they might appeal to the perpetually online culture warriors and conspiracy theorist crowds but that’s pretty much it.
No one’s voting for a 4channer like JD Vance if he ever runs for top dog.
i mean, mark robinson's chances aren't looking too good. and a whole lot of maga senate candidates lost very heavily in 2022.
Thats an opinion, not a fact.
Why are we still talking about this? Again, what may have helped her in PA, could hurt her elsewhere(see Michigan).
This discussion was very much done months ago.
Ah, I see.
Tom Cotton is definitely that, winning as a magical R in Arkansas doesn't mean anything.
I don't really follow polls because I think they're mostly BS, that's my opinion which I know some will disagree, so I have 2 questions
Which States do people think that Harris will lose which Biden won, and which States do people think Harris will win which Trump won last time?
Which States do people think that Harris will lose which Biden won, and which States do people think Harris will win which Trump won last time?
Yeah, I was being sarcastic. And I agree with your second line, especially on the "may have" part for PA.
And it is being discussed because people keep bringing up that she should have picked Shapiro, and I objected to calling it a no-brainer. If it was a no-brainer, she would have picked him.
But it's a bit similar to the discussion about voting for a lesser evil, or whatever you wanna call it. Some of these are just greatest hits that keep on coming back.
We don't know because all the swing states are too close to call. The entire election is basically a coin flip at this point.
The states remains fairly static, so there aren't many to choose from, but here goes.
Harris i think could win North Carolina, but no other states that Trump won in 2020.
Trump, i think its most likely he picks up Georgia or Arizona, maybe both, anything is possible, but i feel good about the rust-belt and don't expect him to win there again.
Its all just guesswork and gut-feelings though, i don't know.
My feeling has always been that she holds the Biden map with GA swapped for NC, for 303 EV, but with the AZ infos recently could lose that by a point or two for 292.
I strongly disagree. Modern conservatives are as deeply entrenched in their party as anything I've ever seen in the US, and I don't think that will soon change even if the figurehead changes.
The MAGA crowd would vote for a legitimate Neo Nazi before they voted for a Democrat.
Its not that they vote for democrats, its that they...kinda doesn't turn up when Trump isn't there.
MAGA-candidates do not perform well in swing states, even if Trump kinda/sorta do.
It’s the same for Democrats too.
Yes both parties have their hardcore fanbase that ain’t going anywhere
Its the people who don’t turn up or haven’t hitched their ride to a wagon that matter. The couch fecker isn’t getting to them.
A guess. Harris will lose NV, AZ and GA, which Biden all won.
I have a feeling Harris will win NC. Due to the big surge in population from out of state into Raleigh and Charlotte.
It is a good sign. but i beleive there may be manh Union workers that are registered as Democrats that will flim to Trump.
But likewise, there may be many never Trump republicans voting for Harris in there returns,
We dont know.
I wonder who the source was on this one? 
Democrat here, I would absolutely not vote for a neo nazi over a Republican. This both sidsing shit is ridiculous.
Complaining about perceived tone right after opening with "geez man" is certainly a choice!