These guys have 77% chance for Trump.
The polls and votes are all well and good, but the MAGA/Republican strategists have spent the last 4 years improving on their plans of what to do if they lose the vote.
As insane as it is there were no repercussions for the first coup, I hope at least something has been done to defend against the 2nd one.
I have no hopes in Ohio. I’m not fully giving up on Florida.Ohio is gone, gone, gone. The bleed of young voters out of state from the Cleveland and Cincinnati area and GOP swing in rural area of the state means there’s no path back for a national party that increasingly rely on college educated suburban voters.
Florida is possible but would require a substantial persuasion effort to bring back the Dade margin to Obama-Clinton level (25+), in addition to winning seniors as retirees flock to that state (Harris is showing signs of life in that regard in this cycle polling, albeit it can be just noise).
Overall, the future of the Democratic Party electoral path lies in the Sun Belt. Especially the growing metro Atlanta, Phoenix, Raleigh/research triangle. Texas is close but it will be very inelastic for a while. Meanwhile, PA is going the way of Ohio but the only reason stopping it for the moment is the size of Pittsburgh/Philadelphia and their suburbs.
New York isn’t going red anytime soon, at worse it becomes VA. There are simply too many votes in NYC and the city is too diverse for it to become red.I have no hopes in Ohio. I’m not fully giving up on Florida.
Now, let me clarify my view:
1. OH and FL were not blue states that become red. They were swing states that became red. Obviously that limits the options of Democrats, but they didn’t lose states that they should win.
2. Democrats started to win states that used to be solidly red, like AZ and GA. Look at Romney 2012 vs. Trump 2020 and the midterms of 2022. VA and CO used to be red too.
3. Republicans started to compete in MI, WI and PA, but they didn’t become red, at least not yet.
And so, while you never know what might happen and while the GOP made gains in the rust belt since 2016, no blue state has become red.
As for TX and MS: the former will go blue sooner or later. MS is tougher, but if the black community continues to grow and votes 85-90% for the democrats, it can happen some point in the future (not anytime soon).
The only question is of course New York State. But let’s see how the Democrats do in November; they need a better showing than in 2022 to relieve the anxiety about the future of this state.
New York Times poll (A+), Sep 21-26
Wisconsin President Harris +2
Michigan President Harris +1
Ohio President Trump +6
Nebraska 2nd President Harris +9
Wisconsin US Senate Baldwin +7
Michigan US Senate Slotkin +4
Ohio US Senate Brown +4
Trump isn't running away with Florida like I thought he would. There hasn't been many Florida polls but the few I've seen from top rated pollsters only have Harris down a few points. I can see her performing slightly better there than Biden did. The Trump momentum in Florida seems to have slowed down compared to where it was in 2020.I have no hopes in Ohio. I’m not fully giving up on Florida.
Now, let me clarify my view:
1. OH and FL were not blue states that become red. They were swing states that became red. Obviously that limits the options of Democrats, but they didn’t lose states that they should win.
2. Democrats started to win states that used to be solidly red, like AZ and GA. Look at Romney 2012 vs. Trump 2020 and the midterms of 2022. VA and CO used to be red too.
3. Republicans started to compete in MI, WI and PA, but they didn’t become red, at least not yet.
And so, while you never know what might happen and while the GOP made gains in the rust belt since 2016, no blue state has become red.
As for TX and MS: the former will go blue sooner or later. MS is tougher, but if the black community continues to grow and votes 85-90% for the democrats, it can happen some point in the future (not anytime soon).
The only question is of course New York State. But let’s see how the Democrats do in November; they need a better showing than in 2022 to relieve the anxiety about the future of this state.
