2024 U.S. Elections | Trump v Harris

Morty_ said:
According to Nate Silver, and i guess "betting markets", i suppose.
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No,

According the majority of reliable polls, trump at worse has a toss up on the combination of BG States and a narrow margin loss in EV that is not enough

And that is for the WHOLE US elections. Hardly a bad candidate for the Rs that is the point that you were making. My post were arguments against your point. Not to a point of being POTUS
 
Hamnat said:
While on one hand it is gross that somone like Laura Loomer has gotten her profile of racism and hate elevated now to national news. It does have to be covered since she is so close to trump. The idea that he could win the election and someone that unabashedly racist can have any say or position offered to her that the people of the United States pay for is just insane.

We already had Elon jockeying for a position to enrich himself and his interests further in a trump admin. I mean the ghouls surrounding this campaign are growing by the day.
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I don’t even understand how you can be racist, while at the same time being willing to be penetrated by a bright orange, plasticine alien?

How can you hate someone who has a different skin tone to you, but still be prepared to crawl on top of something that looks like a descaled creature from the deep that’s been rolled in Wotsits?

The idea of shaking Trumps tiny hand gives me the heebie jeebies, let alone the thought of looking at him without clothes on.
 
4bars said:
No,

According the majority of reliable polls, trump at worse has a toss up on the combination of BG States and a narrow margin loss in EV that is not enough

And that is for the WHOLE US elections. Hardly a bad candidate for the Rs that is the point that you were making. My post were arguments against your point. Not to a point of being POTUS
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What are you even looking at? Most polls have Harris up, narrowly yes, and most models have her up.

Btw, has it ever occured to you, that pollsters corrected too much for 2020? If you just assume that polls are the same for the sake of it, then the election is already over, and Trump flips NH, MN and Virginia, perhaps a couple of others, along with the popular vote.

Does that feel like actual reality to you, if you go with your gut feeling?
 
Betting markets had like 80% of Josh Shapiro being the VP candidate, while we are at it.
 
Looney Loomer just attacked Karine Jean Pierre for calling her a racist who spreads conspiracy theories including one about 9/11.

Her response was to say Karine doesn't like her because shes a Lesbian, Haitian immigrant.

Except she's not. She's from Martinique, only about 800 miles away from Haiti. And she wonders why she gets called a racist FFS. Big surprise this is ignored by all her followers and herself who still continues to say she's Haitian followed by numerous pet eating comments.

At the same time this was going on Trump just did his press conference from one of his golf courses in California. I just watched the whole thing and even for him it was off the scale batshit insane. He got arsey at three questions about Looney Loomer and proceeded to slag California off continuously and in nearly every reply to every question. He also still pronounces Gavin Newsom's surname as 'Newscum' the best bit is it's completely unintentional as it's clear he just doesn't know or can't pronounce his name properly.

He also said to a reporter that bomb threats to schools in Springfield that forced them to evacuate weren't the problem, but the immigrants and border is the real problem. However this might be the highlight (if you can call it that) this 6 minute response to one question about what he would do to help water management issues in California....




Well, I'm glad he sorted that out so easily.


Edit.

I was wrong, he actually is purposely calling him Gavin Newscum.... I honestly thought it was just a miss pronunciation due to him not emphasising it when he said it or giving a little smile wanting praise for something he felt was especially clever.
 
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“In Springfield, Ohio, 20,000 illegal migrant Haitians have descended upon a town of 58,000 people, destroying their way of life. They’ve destroyed the place,” Trump said during a rambling press conference at his golf course in Los Angeles. “People don’t like to talk about it. Even the town doesn’t like to talk about it, because it sounds so bad for the town. They live there … for years it was a great place. Safe. Nice. Now they have 20,000 and I actually heard today it’s 32,000.”


He later added: “We will do large deportations from Springfield, Ohio, large deportations. We’re gonna get these people out. We’re bringing them back to Venezuela,” stating the incorrect country where most of the immigrants are from.

Take that Venezuela!
 
Frosty said:
“In Springfield, Ohio, 20,000 illegal migrant Haitians have descended upon a town of 58,000 people, destroying their way of life. They’ve destroyed the place,” Trump said during a rambling press conference at his golf course in Los Angeles. “People don’t like to talk about it. Even the town doesn’t like to talk about it, because it sounds so bad for the town. They live there … for years it was a great place. Safe. Nice. Now they have 20,000 and I actually heard today it’s 32,000.”


He later added: “We will do large deportations from Springfield, Ohio, large deportations. We’re gonna get these people out. We’re bringing them back to Venezuela,” stating the incorrect country where most of the immigrants are from.

Take that Venezuela!
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Make Venezuela Criminal Again!
 
Morty_ said:
What are you even looking at? Most polls have Harris up, narrowly yes, and most models have her up.

Btw, has it ever occured to you, that pollsters corrected too much for 2020? If you just assume that polls are the same for the sake of it, then the election is already over, and Trump flips NH, MN and Virginia, perhaps a couple of others, along with the popular vote.

Does that feel like actual reality to you, if you go with your gut feeling?
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Yes, till the opposite doesnt happen, is wishful thinking

Morty_ said:
Betting markets had like 80% of Josh Shapiro being the VP candidate, while we are at it.
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What has to do a personal choice of kamala with polls? Did they poll kamala and she told them that there was an 80% chance? Bc it would be the only way.

I fail to see any connection with election polling
 
4bars said:
Yes, till the opposite doesnt happen, is wishful thinking



What has to do a personal choice of kamala with polls? Did they poll kamala and she told them that there was an 80% chance? Bc it would be the only way.

I fail to see any connection with election polling
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It has no connection with the polls, much less anything related to Harris’ decision making process. In the case of her VP pick, she apparently didn’t make a final decision until the morning, only a few hours before calling Walz, which renders the predictive value of so called betting markets completely useless.
 
4bars said:
Yes, till the opposite doesnt happen, is wishful thinking



What has to do a personal choice of kamala with polls? Did they poll kamala and she told them that there was an 80% chance? Bc it would be the only way.

I fail to see any connection with election polling
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Polls are just going to underestimate Trump until the opposite is proven, well okay then.

Election was over before it began, i guess.
 
Morty_ said:
Polls are just going to underestimate Trump until the opposite is proven, well okay then.

Election was over before it began, i guess.
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They've underestimated him for both previous elections, so there would need to be some sort of proof that this isn't the case anymore. If there isn't, then its not wise for Harris supporters to presume her being up by a couple of points is enough to win.
 
Just listened to the Rest is Politics US version podcast, Katty Kay and Anthony Scaramucci, anti Trump as you'd expect but right at the end the Mouch said something really intersting, and a little worrying.

If Trump loses and doesn't try and run again, the GOP's own research/polls are saying that the GOP base want's Tucker Carlson as their next candidate

He also reckons that Trump won't challenge the result seriously if he loses, his rationale is that if he did the NYC judge would definitely send him to jail

LInk to podcast
 
Red in STL said:
Just listened to the Rest is Politics US version podcast, Katty Kay and Anthony Scaramucci, anti Trump as you'd expect but right at the end the Mouch said something really intersting, and a little worrying.

If Trump loses and doesn't try and run again, the GOP's own research/polls are saying that the GOP base want's Tucker Carlson as their next candidate

He also reckons that Trump won't challenge the result seriously if he loses, his rationale is that if he did the NYC judge would definitely send him to jail

LInk to podcast
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Tucker is a logical choice to keep the MAGA movement going. He would probably pick KellyAnne as his running mate too.

Poor @Dr. Dwayne would never be heard from again with his house looking like NYC did after the Ghostbusters blew up the giant Mr Stay-Puft.

Seriously though, if Tucker was in consideration, he has shit loads of skeletons in his closet (No, not KellyAnne) It would be interesting to see if the supporters are as forgiving and dismissive towards Tuckers (or anyone else's) past issues as they are to Trumps. At what point will they get tired of hypocrisy or defending things that go so far against their supposed so core values and beliefs as Christians and Republicans?
 
Morty_ said:
Polls are just going to underestimate Trump until the opposite is proven, well okay then.

Election was over before it began, i guess.
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Most likely than not because there is a tone of statistics that proof it so far. And no, was and is not over as still 2 months to move the needle
At least it looks like better than with Biden as per....polls
 
langster said:
Looney Loomer just attacked Karine Jean Pierre for calling her a racist who spreads conspiracy theories including one about 9/11.

Her response was to say Karine doesn't like her because shes a Lesbian, Haitian immigrant.

Except she's not. She's from Martinique, only about 800 miles away from Haiti. And she wonders why she gets called a racist FFS. Big surprise this is ignored by all her followers and herself who still continues to say she's Haitian followed by numerous pet eating comments.

At the same time this was going on Trump just did his press conference from one of his golf courses in California. I just watched the whole thing and even for him it was off the scale batshit insane. He got arsey at three questions about Looney Loomer and proceeded to slag California off continuously and in nearly every reply to every question. He also still pronounces Gavin Newsom's surname as 'Newscum' the best bit is it's completely unintentional as it's clear he just doesn't know or can't pronounce his name properly.

He also said to a reporter that bomb threats to schools in Springfield that forced them to evacuate weren't the problem, but the immigrants and border is the real problem. However this might be the highlight (if you can call it that) this 6 minute response to one question about what he would do to help water management issues in California....




Well, I'm glad he sorted that out so easily.


Edit.

I was wrong, he actually is purposely calling him Gavin Newscum.... I honestly thought it was just a miss pronunciation due to him not emphasising it when he said it or giving a little smile wanting praise for something he felt was especially clever.
Click to expand...


Not that anyone believes what he's saying but let's correct the misinformation here.

First, Austria does not have a chaparral biome like areas of Southern California that are naturally based on the cycle of fires to replenish the natural flora. It's simply not comparable for that reason alone. Austria is not as dry as chaparral climate zones. period. Second, the eucalyptus tree which was introduced to California and is not native, spreads like weeds and are matchsticks. Austria does not have a population of trees more flammable than the eucalyptus.

Regarding the water situation of Central California farms. First, areas like Kern county that have massive farms and ranches were never appropriate for such large scale agriculture or ranching. Those regions rely on entitlement where those farmers believe they are entitled to water to farm land that is not naturally suitable to farming. Farming should be in the north Sacramento river and above where there is rainfall. More relevant is his false claim that the Sacramento River delta smelt is the cause of this, which is a claim Sean Hannity made years ago and is false. The reality is that they capped the outflow of freshwater to prevent too much pumping of water into unsuitable places to prevent too much salinity in water. When you pump too much water out of rivers, it increases the salinity to the point the water becomes useless for farming or drinking. What they don't understand is that if they just pumped more, they would have increased salinity which obviously is not going to have the result they believe. Freshwater outflow to the Pacific has to be protected to maintain the level of pumping. The Central valley farmers are the victims of their own making, deciding to try to turn unsuitable land into farming empires. Northern California is where the farming should be, and it is where California farming is highly successful due to natural rainfall.

The real "waste" of water at the moment in Northern California comes from inefficient collection of rainwater actually, nothing to do with the delta smelt. If there was a large scale plan to efficiently collect all the rainwater Northern California receives, they could resolve a lot of of the water shortage problems.
 
oneniltothearsenal said:
Not that anyone believes what he's saying but let's correct the misinformation here.

First, Austria does not have a chaparral biome like areas of Southern California that are naturally based on the cycle of fires to replenish the natural flora. It's simply not comparable for that reason alone. Austria is not as dry as chaparral climate zones. period. Second, the eucalyptus tree which was introduced to California and is not native, spreads like weeds and are matchsticks. Austria does not have a population of trees more flammable than the eucalyptus.

Regarding the water situation of Central California farms. First, areas like Kern county that have massive farms and ranches were never appropriate for such large scale agriculture or ranching. Those regions rely on entitlement where those farmers believe they are entitled to water to farm land that is not naturally suitable to farming. Farming should be in the north Sacramento river and above where there is rainfall. More relevant is his false claim that the Sacramento River delta smelt is the cause of this, which is a claim Sean Hannity made years ago and is false. The reality is that they capped the outflow of freshwater to prevent too much pumping of water into unsuitable places to prevent too much salinity in water. When you pump too much water out of rivers, it increases the salinity to the point the water becomes useless for farming or drinking. What they don't understand is that if they just pumped more, they would have increased salinity which obviously is not going to have the result they believe. Freshwater outflow to the Pacific has to be protected to maintain the level of pumping. The Central valley farmers are the victims of their own making, deciding to try to turn unsuitable land into farming empires. Northern California is where the farming should be, and it is where California farming is highly successful due to natural rainfall.

The real "waste" of water at the moment in Northern California comes from inefficient collection of rainwater actually, nothing to do with the delta smelt. If there was a large scale plan to efficiently collect all the rainwater Northern California receives, they could resolve a lot of of the water shortage problems.
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Really good comment. Thanks
 
langster said:
Tucker is a logical choice to keep the MAGA movement going. He would probably pick KellyAnne as his running mate too.

Poor @Dr. Dwayne would never be heard from again with his house looking like NYC did after the Ghostbusters blew up the giant Mr Stay-Puft.

Seriously though, if Tucker was in consideration, he has shit loads of skeletons in his closet (No, not KellyAnne) It would be interesting to see if the supporters are as forgiving and dismissive towards Tuckers (or anyone else's) past issues as they are to Trumps. At what point will they get tired of hypocrisy or defending things that go so far against their supposed so core values and beliefs as Christians and Republicans?
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Hey! I liked wasted frat-boy Tucker from the early 2000s, not the bitter, sober bastard he's become.
 
Suv666 said:
Jeeez
Has the Trump speeches been this hateful forever or he’s turning up the heat?
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It's the same garbage he's always spewing. Just rehashed. Pick any year from the last decade and you'll find the same.

2015


2017 (Haiti again)


2023
 
langster said:
Tucker is a logical choice to keep the MAGA movement going. He would probably pick KellyAnne as his running mate too.

Poor @Dr. Dwayne would never be heard from again with his house looking like NYC did after the Ghostbusters blew up the giant Mr Stay-Puft.

Seriously though, if Tucker was in consideration, he has shit loads of skeletons in his closet (No, not KellyAnne) It would be interesting to see if the supporters are as forgiving and dismissive towards Tuckers (or anyone else's) past issues as they are to Trumps. At what point will they get tired of hypocrisy or defending things that go so far against their supposed so core values and beliefs as Christians and Republicans?
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:lol:
 
Frosty said:
“In Springfield, Ohio, 20,000 illegal migrant Haitians have descended upon a town of 58,000 people, destroying their way of life. They’ve destroyed the place,” Trump said during a rambling press conference at his golf course in Los Angeles. “People don’t like to talk about it. Even the town doesn’t like to talk about it, because it sounds so bad for the town. They live there … for years it was a great place. Safe. Nice. Now they have 20,000 and I actually heard today it’s 32,000.”


He later added: “We will do large deportations from Springfield, Ohio, large deportations. We’re gonna get these people out. We’re bringing them back to Venezuela,” stating the incorrect country where most of the immigrants are from.

Take that Venezuela!
Click to expand...
 
Dudu said:
It's the same garbage he's always spewing. Just rehashed. Pick any year from the last decade and you'll find the same.

2015


2017 (Haiti again)


2023
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He’s been doing it for so long kinda forgot about these.

It’s crazy it’ll be a decade of Trumpism, never imagined he would stick for so long or have such a lasting impact on American politics.
 
langster said:
I think he's always been the same. Last time it was Mexican rapists and drug dealers and Muslim bans, this time it's Venezuelans and Haitians.
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Why the sudden shift to different people though :lol:

I think he might be getting a little desperate and banking on siphoning votes from Muslim and Mexican communities, because he needs them.
 
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