2020 US Elections | Biden certified as President | Dems control Congress

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El-Manos said:
I know feck all about this admittedly but can somebody explain to me how Clinton won the vote by a landslide in 2016 but still lost out in the end? Could the same happen to Biden?
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The US system is based on the presidential candidates gaining the electoral votes of a state, if they hold a slight voting majority within that state. Say every region in Ireland counted 5 points. Whoever wins a region by the slightest of margins gets all points from that region. Whoever has the most points in the end wins.

The actual amount of voters going either way is basically only relevant within the boundaries of the specific states. The states have a predetermined amount of electoral votes that slightly favor the rural states compared to the more populous states, which definitely helps the Republicans. In the end to win the election, the candidates must gain at least 270 electoral votes. In that sense, who had more votes overall doesn't necessarily determine the winner. If Biden got more of the total votes but all of those came in at 100% of only the 5 biggest states and 49% of all the others, he would lose the election, as he'd get 0 electoral votes from the other states.
 
Phil said:
Who is this Nate Silver guy whose tweets are showing up here regularly and are his predictions/projections usually half decent?

Edit - actually haven't I seen his name for sports coverage?
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He is a data scientist who makes analysis on other polls and then forecasts the winners. Typically, he is more reliable than any single poll.

And yes, he also makes data-driven sports predictions, including football.
 
mariachi-19 said:
Biggest area left to count is Phoenix and Biden is ahead by 99,000.00 hence the reason its already been called.
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Isn’t the challenge though that mail in was counted first there? And hence, that margin could reasonably be expected to shorten as on the day votes are counted?
 
@UncleBob
So obviously it comes as no surprise that when you get a response with facts, you're not interested in participating in the discussion?
You're just in here laughing at people suggesting Trump being reelected would mean anything for the rest of the world.
 
Arizona looks too close now. Seems mail ins went first. Are these the closest elections of recent times?
 
RedRonaldo said:
Why does everyone say mails votes favors Biden anyway?
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Because there was a huge partisan divide in requesting mail ballots. Far far more registered Democrats requested absentee ballots. It's well documented that Democratic voters are more concerned about the coronavirus, have more faith in absentee voting/mail voting. And so far it has played out as expected during the election: when mail ballots are counted in states that traditionally don't vote heavily by mail, it always breaks for Democrats.
 
RedRonaldo said:
Why does everyone say mails votes favors Biden anyway?
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Polls they have done and stats collected.

My theory is that people vote from home to avoid the virus and comply with lockdowns, and Trump voters don't believe there is a virus so there's no reason to vote from home. Could be nonsense.
 
How is Trump leading in Pennsylvania. I thought that was democratic's strong.hold?
 
Well so far in Arizona
- McSally is in the lead for Senate (D)
- Tipirneni is in the lead District 6 (D)
- O'Halleran is in the lead District 1 (D)

And biggest news of all

207 - Legalize Recreational Marijuana 60% yes

It'll swing to Biden with all that
 
What happens if Biden holds Wisconsin and Nevada, wins Michigan and loses Georgia and Pennsylvania.

I do not trust PA at all. It was supposed to be closer than WI and with WI being so close, I think that PA will go Trump. And in any case, the state legislators can decide to overrule the election there and pick the electoral college. But I assume that Biden wins even without it providing that he now wins MI. Am I right?
 
A special thought for wanting to get that Nazi c*nt Miller out of the Oval office.
 
AshRK said:
How is Trump leading in Pennsylvania. I thought that was democratic's strong.hold?
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Quick synopsis: shit ton of nail in ballots in processed in super heavy dem areas. Also, Trump claimed that finishing to count those ballots is stealing the election. Stay tuned for madness.
 
mariachi-19 said:
I dont know what percentage fell for on the day votes in that region, but its uncommon that Fox, AP and all other sources claim victory so early.
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There are plenty who haven’t projected it yet though. And it’s not guaranteed (there are examples of close calls and mistakes in the past).
 
Revan said:
What happens if Biden holds Wisconsin and Nevada, wins Michigan and loses Georgia and Pennsylvania.

I do not trust PA at all. It was supposed to be closer than WI and with WI being so close, I think that PA will go Trump. And in any case, the state legislators can decide to overrule the election there and pick the electoral college. But I assume that Biden wins even without it providing that he now wins MI. Am I right?
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Then he is grand. Assuming he holds AZ too, of course.
 
RedRonaldo said:
Why does everyone say mails votes favors Biden anyway?
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Cause GOP think that covid is a scam and they went voting on the Election Day, while Dems sent votes by post. Also, Dem’s strategy was to vote early, while Trump urged his voters to vote in Election Day (while ironically himself voted by mail).
 
Revan said:
Cause GOP think that covid is a scam and they went voting on the Election Day, while Dems sent votes by post. Also, Dem’s strategy was to vote early, while Trump urged his voters to vote in Election Day (while ironically himself voted by mail).
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I think he ended up doing it early in person.
 
Brwned said:
Yeah that wouldn't surprise me. But then again, that gets back to the heart of why Biden was chosen: winning above all else. If he doesn't do the first part then his role in the wider context becomes more important, which supporters dismissed altogether months ago. It seems a worthwhile time for reflection even if the assessment is still this was the right move, but the reflexive response that there's nothing to consider, nothing to reflect upon, of course it was right...that seems damaging in the long run.
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I'm sure the Democrats will reflect upon the election, their primaries, their policies. That I don't think this election had the potential to be significantly different, based on the results we're seeing, is meaningless: I'm a nobody :)

Biden was acceptable to almost all wings of the behemoth that is the Democratic Party. It's very hard to find any sort of common ground in such a huge, diverse collection of people and ideologies - how are Manchin, Biden, and AOC in the same party? - but the system means they MUST find that common ground somehow. The only way out of this would be a complete reform of the system and that's not going to happen.
 
Tarrou said:
They do a little bit as book-makers will hedge if their exposure is too high

But a pool-based market like Betfair isn't at all. It's purely based on what the market thinks is fair value.
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I know that bookmakers don't just set odds by money flowing in, even if that is a huge factor, but some people think it means something that they couldn't see much better by looking at the election events themselves.
 
LARulz said:
I am actually surprised people think Biden could lose this. I have been very critical of him/Dems this whole campaign and knew it would be close but I never once doubted he'd win. Trump got more votes than I thought but ultimately he was never going to get the same wave he had the first time.

Either way, Trump will drag this out and won't go out a fair and square loser
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If Biden does win I am looking forward to watching Trumps meltdown, reckon we'll need a thread specially for it, "Trump goes into meltdown - 2020 edition" or something. I've never seen a outgoing president try to reject the peoples vote. Should be interesting and entertaining in equal measures.
 
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