2020 US Elections | Biden certified as President | Dems control Congress

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How likely is there to be a shy trump voter turnout?

Will the influence of gerrymandering be strong?
 
Berbasbullet said:
How likely is there to be a shy trump voter turnout?

Will the influence of gerrymandering be strong?
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Gerrymandering affects only the election for House of Representatives. The presidency and the senate are decided based on statewide votes, so no gerrymandering possible there.
 
Revan said:
Gerrymandering affects only the election for House of Representatives. The presidency and the senate are decided based on statewide votes, so no gerrymandering possible there.
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That’s not right. Gerrymandering is also relevant for the presidential election
 
Revan said:
Gerrymandering affects only the election for House of Representatives. The presidency and the senate are decided based on statewide votes, so no gerrymandering possible there.
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Aaah I see! I wasn’t aware of this, thank you.
 
Marcosdeto said:
Reading the Election thread i see a lot of posters saying that they are afraid that Trump may be reelected.
I'm telling you that after four years of being one of the worst presidents ever and with all the media that was there to show us how shit he was, the social media echoing in every shit decision he made, there's no way he will get more votes than he did in 2016.
Many people that voted for him are very disappointed, Trump certainly did't deliver any of his promises about new american jobs and companies returning to USA.
Just remember that he didn't win the popular vote, something he will certainly wont do this time either and with the amount of new voters that are going to the polls, Biden will win by, at least, 5 points.
You read it here first.
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Supreme Court to the rescue.
 
Seems its getting to be that the great hope of the Democrats is the mailed-in votes? If just one of these batches are found to be false or corrupted then all hell lets loose!
 
Imagine your entire strategy being to use the courts to steal an election then beating your chest, calling yourself the world's greatest democracy.
 
It's all about Trump.. like it was 4 years ago.
The other candidate is irrelevant..

The ballot might as well read Trump vs Not Trump.

If he has pissed off more people that he has impressed over the last 4 years, he wins.. If not, Not Trump wins.
 
Trump shouldn't be getting even 5% of the vote with everything he's done and said over the years. Guess what, even if he loses he's getting atleast 45% of the vote. Who do you think these 45% are ? They dont give a rats ass about policies and facts. Don't commit the mistake of assuming all humans are well intention'ed.
 
Hoping the Americans aren’t this complacent, we all thought he couldn’t win before and look how that turned out.
 
the equation IMHO is simple
people that voted for Trump that don't like him anymore: quite a few
people that didn't vote for Trump that started liking him now: you kidding?
people that didn't vote because they were not old enough: a lot and as far as i know most of them hate Trump
people that didn't vote but now they will because they dislike one of the candidates: a lot, and most of them are going to vote just to take Trump out of the white house

Trump looses
 
Revan said:
That is obviously true (and Electoral college sucks anyway). But it is not gerrymandering
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It’s a rather obscure mechanism. If the election is thrown to the house, each state gets to cast one vote and the vote is decided by which party controls that state legislature, which Republicans currently have the edge 26-24. So despite being in control of the House, Dems would still lose.

The wonders of American political system.
 
If he wins Pennsylvania which would require only a slightly bigger polling error than 2016 then I think he wins the election...He’ll win Florida and Texas/Georgia/Arizona too. Hopefully I’m wrong but I see this being way closer than is being made out.
 
Maticmaker said:
Clarification: Viewed from a distance this summary is what seems to be coming through, maybe its just those on here getting jittery!
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If the courts can throw out one batch of mail ballots in one state to change the election, the pollsters, modelers, and pretty much everybody else have fecked up. The courts shouldn't really come into play.

My concern is more civil unrest post election. And voter intimidation on election day.
 
The fact that there’s still around 45% who will vote for him says a lot about the US population.
 
owlo said:
If the courts can throw out one batch of mail ballots in one state to change the election, the pollsters, modelers, and pretty much everybody else have fecked up. The courts shouldn't really come into play.

My concern is more civil unrest post election. And voter intimidation on election day.
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I saw on CNN that 90m have already voted. Which party's voters are more motivated to vote early and why?
 
I think there were a lot of people who were curious about a Trump presidency and gave him the benefit of the doubt, and voted for him. I imagine these same people would be disappointed in how underwhelming his tenure was. Combine that with all the shitty remarks he's made over the years and I just can't see another Trump win.
 
vanrooney said:
https://blogs.lse.ac.uk/usappblog/2...s-could-lead-to-president-trumps-re-election/
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In the case that election does not matter, and that the presidency gets decided by House of Representatives. Not gonna happen.
vanrooney said:
https://blogs.lse.ac.uk/ipa/2019/11...-about-the-gerrymandering-of-us-presidencies/
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Except the title, it has nothing to do with gerrymandering, instead it has to do with Electoral College, which is a totally different thing.
 
There's about a 10% chance according the the latest polling I've seen.
 
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