Heffelump321
Great work though, seems pretty promising!
far too close to not fall victim to right wing cheating
2020 US Elections | Biden certified as President | Dems control Congress
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far too close to not fall victim to right wing cheating
Watch your mouth.
How is she a fool?
Perhaps, I dunno. Probably genuine quotes from a Biden aide who got outside data from one of their partisan polling groups and just didn't think to fact check it before panicing.
Do you think Biden's camp plant these to ensure people turnout?
Thoughts?
https://www.politico.com/news/magaz...s-trump-biden-prediction-accurate-2016-433619
‘People Are Going To Be Shocked’: Return of the ‘Shy’ Trump Voter?
In 2016, pollsters Arie Kapteyn and Robert Cahaly saw Trump coming. In 2020, they see polls again underestimating his support.
I'm pretty sure everyone here would love to be in her company.
Ok feck it, here's something on Florida. Note it's a pretty high turnout model.
For news sites who want to 'borrow' it, please reference redcafe and please don't bother messaging me.
Richard Fariña fan?
I mean, it's possible.... but it'd mean a feckup of monumental proportions. There was a 538 podcast about this last night - I tend to agree that we'd need a fundamental rethink of the way we predict elections. Clinton losing was normalish. This would be beyond the pale.
Now if you frame that question as: "There are a lot of shy trump voters, could it be a tighter election than many predict?" .... then sure I can see that. But Trump would need to find NEW shy voters; the huge turnout increases need to be kept up with. He's [ostensibly] lost independents, white men, white women, gained latinos a bit? My question would be: What groups have we overlooked? And are they any more 'shy' than they were in 2016?
Back offMy girl.
Agreed. And I don't know if I buy into the shy thing now, perhaps a very small percentage overall. The 2020 Trumplicans are a vocal, arrogant, bullyish bunch from what I see. Nothing like 2016. It's a cult, and not one that is hidden or secretive per say.
Chaotic genius.
Authoritarian populist streak a mile long. The fact that she constantly labels those criticising her as sexist or racist, without considering facts. Then attempts to ridicule them in almost the exact same way as Trump to whip up public angst. She needs to temper herself and look in the mirror.
Neither Trump nor Biden are campaigning in Florida the next few days. Both are doing several events in PA. That could mean Florida is locked according to their internal polls (I don't know which way) and PA is highly contested.
Qanon, definitely qanon.2016 was rough, hungover for a few days, working overtime to pay off rent, then came down with the worst cold imaginable compounded with hay fever a couple of weeks later. Great payoff for being emotionally invested in sth for 18 mths.
And while we are at it, what happened to @Red Dreams ?
What a load of keek. She calls people out on their bullshit and you dont like it.
The vote will be rigged so this is all moot
From what I've observed she only calls people out for being sexist or racist if they are in fact doing one of those two things to try and take her on. Trump's endorsed chants of 'send her back' towards AOC in the past when they're both from Queens.
Definitely interesting, but at least from listening to the 538 frequent podcasts they seem rather convinced that there are a number of differences this election cycle from the last time around. Plus, I thought I saw a table in here that purported to show that even if the polls are off by the same margins they were with Clinton, Biden would still likely win. However, I also saw a study recently that purported to show that voters were more likely to claim they were voting for Trump in online versus telephone polling, one of the explanations being a reluctance on the phone to admit you would be voting for Trump
Also, from the article, does it seem to anyone else that Kapteyn's "social circle" hypothesis is a little flawed? Are there not other explanations for the 5 point difference in polling, especially in closely contested races?
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My girl.
Exactly, Pexbo. Back off. Because she's mine.
Obviously, but he somehow seems to be able to skip around those issues publically. People still vote for him because he's a "successful businessman who will run America like one of his companies". A landslide win for Biden can't be spun in the same way. He can't magically stay POTUS or get another similar position anywhere, and hopefully he'll get prosecuted for all his crimes. The dream is that the whole house of cards comes crashing down.
He'll obviously blame everyone but himself, try to ratfeck his way into staying President, but hopefully things get bad enough for him that he has to actually deal with his own failure in some way. I know raging narcissists by definition can't actually do that, but America should still try to make it happen. If nothing else, his Twitter will be even more mental than it already is.
Probably the worst comment you have posted. The rest are A+ and much appreciated.
I really don't understand how you can come to that conclusion. To me she owns all those out of touch pricks with truth and reality. She's also not whipping up angst, it's already there but she has the balls to say it while the person you compare her too lies and lies. Fair play to that woman is all I can say. My kids are in safe hands with representatives like her.
Which ironically, is exactly what Trump voters say about Trump.
Nancy Pelosi for example. https://edition.cnn.com/2019/07/11/politics/ocasio-cortez-pelosi-singling-out/index.html
Or the Twitter blocks, of anybody respectfully criticizing her who she disagrees with.
Who would have thought it'd be the 'progressives' trying to stifle free speech. (Not just directed at AOC now)
Surely the shy Trump voter thing goes away this election? I mean he’s the president...they don’t need to hide anymore. Him winning validated whatever ridiculous notions they have.
Again, exactly what the Trump base thinks and says about him.....
I'm not trying to infer anything with that comment with regards to you, but I guess my ideals and hers just aren't alligned? In this atomosphere I find her dangerous. I'm very pro free speech etc, even if I vehemently disagree with it.
Not sure how to compute that statement when she also said : "Her singling out of Democratic women of color is disrespectful"
Which surely means, if they weren't woman, or weren't colored, Pelosi wouldn't "Single them out"
Not sure what to make of it really. One thing I will say for her, is at least she apologises sometimes. It's definitely overly harsh to compare her to Trump, even if I personally see some similarities.
Ps. I'm an Ahern fanboy.
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Maybe, but he is still a very divisive candidate and I think it is plausible that some polled will be reluctant to admit they support Trump. Not nearly as many as 2016, but the "shy" voter probably still exists
Wait are you comparing AOCs intellect and political ability to Trumps?
Both camps would also answer this question the same way.
"No."
I see a few parallels. Both are politically unconventional talented "Pied Pipers" for their respective target groups. Both thrive on emotion, not logic. Both are not part of the party establishment.
Trump's base is galaxies away from truth and reality. Watch any Jordan Kempler video and it will show you how idiotic these people can be. I don't see a fraction of that from anyone that is in support of "the squad". You can certainly disagree pal but to insinuate a false equivalency like that just doesn't sit right with me. We are not here to agree on everything but you do yourself an injustice to compare those two public figures or their base. Start with their grasp of the English language.
Bertie?Not sure how to compute that statement when she also said : "Her singling out of Democratic women of color is disrespectful"
Which surely means, if they weren't woman, or weren't colored, Pelosi wouldn't "Single them out"
Not sure what to make of it really. One thing I will say for her, is at least she apologises sometimes. It's definitely overly harsh to compare her to Trump, even if I personally see some similarities.
Ps. I'm an Ahern fanboy.
Cmon
Jacinda obviously!It's the concept that anybody who disagrees with either of them will generally be castigated and sneered at as the village idiot because their way is the right way. Both sides are so esconced in their view that they completely intolerant to any other.
I find it emblematic of 2020 USA in many ways. Two sides so far apart that discourse is not only impossible, but unwanted. That criticism of their way of life is unfounded and ridiculous. You can't give an opinion about either Trump or AOC without their core supporters finding it "stupid" or "devoid of reality." And I feel that is really sad. Of course, much of it is Trumps fault, more of it is Bushes and McConnells fault, and some fault is simply systemic.
I further find it sad that I'm unable to give a personal opinion on somebody without people calling me all sorts of stuff, even on here which is likely pretty moderate and tame.
And this is a large part of the reason the GOP still has a shot in hell of winning elections. They need division. They need people on the left to ridicule all those Midwestern women who quietly detest AOC or others they feel their values don't allign with. Because if the democratic party could bring the damned country together, the GOP would be dead in the water. And somebody like Trump wouldn't be able to exploit it so efficiency.
So yes, I see similarities in their base. (Look at the replies after I said I dislike AOC. I was immediately accused of 'not liking her because she calls people out on their bullshit.') I do see a populist US representative often interested in point scoring. II also feel I'm pretty impartial on her.
I'm not sorry you disagree with me. I don't think your view is crazy. Having the conversation is important.
Ardern > Ahern
538 model is now 89-10-1
and their latest podcast is "There still isn't evidence of Shy Trump voters"
and their latest podcast is "There still isn't evidence of Shy Trump voters"
Agree with this. She is an unintelligent opportunist, but obviously an unpopular opinion here. She is Trudeau-lite in that sense.
Jacinda Ardern is obviously an extremely intelligent and honest person.
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