He upgraded parts of the wall that was already there, and built a few miles a new wall. Then claimed he built hundreds of miles of it...
2020 US Elections | Biden certified as President | Dems control Congress
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I've got to be honest, the only thing I'm truly hyped for is seeing how Drumpf handles the first resounding public loss of his life. It's going to be a spectacular meltdown. For that reason, I need these polls to be true, or even a little on the cautious side in terms of a Dem majority. Please make it happen, America.
Ok feck it, here's something on Florida. Note it's a pretty high turnout model.
For news sites who want to 'borrow' it, please reference redcafe and please don't bother messaging me.
For news sites who want to 'borrow' it, please reference redcafe and please don't bother messaging me.
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Heffelump321 
Great work though, seems pretty promising!
Great work though, seems pretty promising!
In terms of Senate Control, the Democrats need to win back 3 seats right..
So where are the races where this could happen, and are there any incumbents that that they could likely lose?
Feels like the Senate Race isn't talked about enough (or at least it feels like that from watching on International news outlets) given how crucial it is..
So where are the races where this could happen, and are there any incumbents that that they could likely lose?
Feels like the Senate Race isn't talked about enough (or at least it feels like that from watching on International news outlets) given how crucial it is..
The Senate for me is the most important of the three branches. It’s proven to be the only branch which has any actual power.
4 - since one existing Dem will lose.
Wut?
should be fairly straightforward. The question is more whether they pick up 50-53 or 54+
No words.
Projection figures exceed the total, what am I misunderstanding?
would be quite a story! Not impossible though. I’d love Donald Duck to win over tuberville. He’d be more qualified
Ok feck it, here's something on Florida. Note it's a pretty high turnout model.
For news sites who want to 'borrow' it, please reference redcafe and please don't bother messaging me.
Some of the total column calculations seem to be off, no? Shouldn't you be getting a number >10,000,000?
I just didn’t update the right side stuff when I pulled in those tables. Nice spot haha
Trump has won the rap vote for sure. Kanye, Cube, Fiddy, Wacka Flocka, Lil Pump, Lil Wayne, Kodak Black
Then I saw the voter suppression model below and thought maybe that's it - Florida "loses/does not count 2M votes."
So I'm praying I'm wrong but I've got the fear Trumps going to win again. Polls are meaningless in the US as its always near 50/50 on the day. So someone cheer me up and help me believe that were not in for another 4 years where I have to hear about the orange cnut every few minutes of everyday.
Obama got feck all done in his second term thanks to Mitch proving the President’s whim is beholden to the SML.
The House was shown to have essentially no power at all over the last 2 years with the Senate refusing to pass a single bill.
There is a 100% chance he probably won't but probably will win.
Updated for you @MrMarcello @sport2793
Edit: The voter suppression module is a bit boring, especially for Florida. (It tries to consider 'problems' at the voting booths, discounting of late mail ballots, and extra strict 'verification' of ballots)
Ah, I thought you meant SCOTUS was the 3rd branch. Trump has shown though, if you play dirty the executive can do a lot without congress (meaning without either house). Both houses are considered one branch usually.
The Senate is not one of the 3 branches. It is part of a branch. The 3 branches are the executive branch (president ), the legislature (congress, which is the House and Senate), and the judiciary.
Well, he won the commercial, whack rap vote that's for sure.
Snoop + Eminem + Tribe Called Quest + Kendrick Lamar > those chumps
Yeah I was thinking of the trifecta I think
Kanye, Wayne and Cube are in the upper echeleons or rappers and make most top 50 lists regardless. Fofty has one of the best Hip Hop albums
Well, he won the commercial, whack rap vote that's for sure.
Snoop + Eminem + Tribe Called Quest + Kendrick Lamar > those chumps
Cube didn't even endorse him.
Rambling mess, but is he implying that living the life of a billionaire is a bad thing? Seems odd considering his boss' main selling feature is that he is a fake billionaire
Biden Aides See Warning Signs in Black, Latino Turnout So Far
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/arti...-warning-signs-in-black-latino-turnout-so-far
Despite record early-vote turnout around the country, there are warning signs for Biden. In Arizona, two-thirds of Latino registered voters have not yet cast a ballot. In Florida, half of Latino and Black registered voters have not yet voted but more than half of White voters have cast ballots, according to data from Catalist, a Democratic data firm. In Pennsylvania, nearly 75% of registered Black voters have not yet voted, the data shows.
The firm’s analysis of early vote numbers also show a surge of non-college educated White voters, who largely back President Donald Trump, compared to voters of color, who overwhelmingly support Biden.
The situation is particularly stark in Florida where Republicans currently have a 9.4% turnout advantage in Miami-Dade County, a place where analysts say Biden will need a significant margin of victory to carry the state.
I think Trump is winning FL again. It will likely boil down to if Biden can hold PA.
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/arti...-warning-signs-in-black-latino-turnout-so-far
Despite record early-vote turnout around the country, there are warning signs for Biden. In Arizona, two-thirds of Latino registered voters have not yet cast a ballot. In Florida, half of Latino and Black registered voters have not yet voted but more than half of White voters have cast ballots, according to data from Catalist, a Democratic data firm. In Pennsylvania, nearly 75% of registered Black voters have not yet voted, the data shows.
The firm’s analysis of early vote numbers also show a surge of non-college educated White voters, who largely back President Donald Trump, compared to voters of color, who overwhelmingly support Biden.
The situation is particularly stark in Florida where Republicans currently have a 9.4% turnout advantage in Miami-Dade County, a place where analysts say Biden will need a significant margin of victory to carry the state.
I think Trump is winning FL again. It will likely boil down to if Biden can hold PA.
On the other hand, Trump should have been largely ineluctable because of his personality, personal background, and some of his ideas. I would think that that pushed a certain percentage of voters away from him (in specific population groups), and he must have made up for that with something else.
Fair enough, AOC has done the same thing in the past so you’re in good company
Technically his multiple bankruptcies, losing his airline, losing his football league, losing the lawsuit about his scam university, etc were all pretty resounding loss too. In fact-he should be pretty used to losing. Its the fact that he hasn't lost more (yet) that is messed up.
This really concerns me. I read something on Politico about shy Trump voters turning out en masse. This sort of thing makes me doubt the polls will be transferred into equivalent votes.
Rs running FL probably limited release of information in Spanish about early voting.
I'll brick it up until the result is tallied but until then have a look at this article.
https://www.theatlantic.com/ideas/a...to-believe-2020-wont-be-a-2016-sequel/616896/
Don’t Sweat the Polls
Why the 2020 election won’t be a 2016 sequel.
--And so he did. Exit polls and post-election surveys found that undecided voters broke strongly for the president. About one in seven voters in key swing states decided in the final week, and they broke for Trump by about 30 points in Wisconsin and 17 points in Florida and Pennsylvania, spelling disaster for Clinton.
But 2020 doesn’t have the same capacity for last-minute Democratic horror, because there aren’t nearly as many undecided voters. Fewer undecided voters means less volatility and a smaller chance of last-minute surprises that actually move votes.
The relative lack of undecided voters suggests another positive difference for Biden. In 2016, voters disliked both candidates, which is why so many were persuadable in late October. In 2020, voters dislike Trump, and actually like Biden—certainly more than the last Democratic nominee. Biden’s national polling has consistently been about four to six points higher than Clinton’s. His net favorability rating is 17 percentage points higher than Clinton’s was on Election Day. In short, many of 2016's undecideds have decided in 2020 to vote for Biden.--
https://www.theatlantic.com/ideas/a...to-believe-2020-wont-be-a-2016-sequel/616896/
Don’t Sweat the Polls
Why the 2020 election won’t be a 2016 sequel.
--And so he did. Exit polls and post-election surveys found that undecided voters broke strongly for the president. About one in seven voters in key swing states decided in the final week, and they broke for Trump by about 30 points in Wisconsin and 17 points in Florida and Pennsylvania, spelling disaster for Clinton.
But 2020 doesn’t have the same capacity for last-minute Democratic horror, because there aren’t nearly as many undecided voters. Fewer undecided voters means less volatility and a smaller chance of last-minute surprises that actually move votes.
The relative lack of undecided voters suggests another positive difference for Biden. In 2016, voters disliked both candidates, which is why so many were persuadable in late October. In 2020, voters dislike Trump, and actually like Biden—certainly more than the last Democratic nominee. Biden’s national polling has consistently been about four to six points higher than Clinton’s. His net favorability rating is 17 percentage points higher than Clinton’s was on Election Day. In short, many of 2016's undecideds have decided in 2020 to vote for Biden.--
This is a trash article. Assume all the 'datas' are true (probably some form of exit poll, SOS dont record like that)
Then consider this:
77% of TOTAL registered PA voters of ALL races have not yet cast a ballot.
In Arizona, over 55% of total registered voters have not cast a ballot.
In Florida 45% of registered voters have not voted.
And the Miami-Dade data is just a blatant lie.
https://countyballotfiles.floridados.gov/VoteByMailEarlyVotingReports/PublicStats
Turnout:
R 116K + 152K
D 208K + 146K
I 120K + 106K
AOC is a fool though. Not great company to be in.
@owlo perhaps Bloomberg throwing a scare tactic at citizens to get out and vote?
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