2020 US Elections | Biden certified as President | Dems control Congress

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Kinky Melinky said:
Biden for the popular vote and a closely fought battle for the electorate that I believe Biden will win. Then a soap opera of an exit by Trump.
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The problem is that the electoral college is everything right? I'd wish that trump loses. We need normality back
 
Kinky Melinky said:
And then the period of time between when the results come in and when Biden is inaugurated should he win. To me that period of time has the potential to be the most insanely bizarre period of time in modern American history.
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I think he'll recuse himself to Mar-a-Lago and play a lot of golf.
 
I don't believe my perspective matters but last time around I thought there was an outside chance he could win, mainly because people didn't like Hillary. Once he was declared the winner in Florida you knew a Trump victory was won.

This time around he's going to lose the election and there's no chance that he comes close in the popular vote or the electoral college. They may try to steal the result but I don;t see it coming off in the face of overwhelming voter support for the Biden Harris ticket.
 
What swing state results will be known on election night (or by Wednesday at the latest) other than the following?:

Florida
Arizona
NC (read that they claim they will have 99% of ballots counted on election night
Iowa

And, if Biden wins three of these states (not seeing Iowa as potentially a Biden win as the other three), is there any meaningful chance that Trump will be able to get to 270?
 
devilish said:
The problem is that the electoral college is everything right? I'd wish that trump loses. We need normality back
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Aye, it all ends at the electoral college, but I personally believe Biden will win enough of the battleground States to earn more college votes. Who knows. We shall see I guess.
 
calodo2003 said:
What swing state results will be known on election night (or by Wednesday at the latest) other than the following?:

Florida
Arizona
NC (read that they claim they will have 99% of ballots counted on election night
Iowa

And, if Biden wins three of these states (not seeing Iowa as potentially a Biden win as the other three), is there any meaningful chance that Trump will be able to get to 270?
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I wouldn't think so. Biden has several paths and doesn't necessarily need Florida while Trump most definitely need a win there.

Biden can do without Arizona (and Nevada) too as long as he holds the Rust Belt + NC.
 
calodo2003 said:
What swing state results will be known on election night (or by Wednesday at the latest) other than the following?:

Florida
Arizona
NC (read that they claim they will have 99% of ballots counted on election night
Iowa

And, if Biden wins three of these states (not seeing Iowa as potentially a Biden win as the other three), is there any meaningful chance that Trump will be able to get to 270?
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Texas should be known on the night too, given recent polling it potentially wll vote for Biden.
 
owlo said:
Been wanting to do a little write up for a few days about a point I made some time ago; I may suck a bit at explaining myself, but here we go. I'll probably do it in 2 posts, 1 for each state.

We're going to analyse just 2 states, Florida and NC. Why these? Because a) they matter b) they have good pollster data we can grab.

We'll start with NC.

The 7 largest counties have between a 44-52% average turnout so far. Of total registered voters. All voted blue in 2016. 1.3 million voters (this time). Around 1.85 total in 2016. We'll call this set 1

The next 6 largest counties have a minimum turnout of around 43%, a maximum of 50%. Again of total registered voters. All voted red in 2016. 400k voters this time around. 570k total voters in 2016. We'll call this set 2

We'll add some granularity soon, but those are the headlines.

Let's take a look at some good polling: The 3 I have selected are Siena/NYT, Monmouth, and ABC/Wash Post

First we shall challenge our pollsters on turnout:


A common question asked (may vary in wording, this wording stolen from Siena/NYT) Regardless of whether you intend to vote in the November general election, would you vote in person on Election Day, vote in person before Election Day, or vote by mail?

We will amalgamate 'vote by mail' and 'early voting' for ease of reading: [may not add up to 100% as I'll disregard undecideds. Note that the majority in NC don't vote by mail, but early.

Siena/NYT: On the day, 40%. Early: 57%
Monmouth: On the day: 33%. Early: 64%
ABC/Wash Post: On the day: 29%. Early 66%

Certainly Trumps aggressive campaign against mail voting has worked. 50% of voters in NC will vote in person, but early.

Let's now plug our numbers into the initial numbers. We expect around 2/3rds to vote early, and that is exactly how it is. There is however a perception that 'Democrats vote early, independents and GOP vote on the day.' But hold on, we're still a week until election day. This indicates a huge turnout increase. We have had 10 days of early voting. 6 remain.

So we must discuss turnout trend. Thankfully NC have an excellent interactive that shows this. You can see them here: https://www.ncsbe.gov/results-data/election-results/voter-turnout-statistics

Nobody has a crystal ball, but you'd expect this to translate to 1 million extra early voters statewide, minimum. Consider the total NC turnout was 4.7M in 2016, and we're going to have a minimum of 4.2M early voters in 2020, you can see Trump is quite fecked. (Unless these are the mystical shy trump voters). If we trust the polls (that 1/3rd will vote on election day), this would give us a total turnout of 6.3M, a 1.6 million voter gain on 2016. That's insane.

So lets break it down further. But first we'll slightly modify set 2 to discount New Hanover county. The reason for this is it's an outlier in the amount of support trump has there, relative to the other 5. So now our set 2 consists of 5 counties, which trump carried with between 57-67% of the vote in 2016. 340k have voted, with an average turnout of 44% (so far). 460k voted in 2016. 295k for trump. *165k for clinton

We'll make the assumption, that some of the extra 25% turnout will be in these set2 counties. Perhaps not as much as they are red, so we'll calculate a conservative 15% turnout increase in total.

That means, for these counties :530k will vote. Some 400k of these will vote early. (more based on our early voting data, less based on pollsters proportions) 40% are dems. 30% are republicans 30% are independents. These numbers are statewide and not county specific, but they would translate to a 280k early vote for Biden, 120k for Biden. More than trump got in total last time. It also means that the 1/3rd who vote on the day (lets be kind and say of the 180k instead of 130k vote on the day, Trump would need to carry almost every vote. You can clearly see, even if these numbers skew by 20%, Trump is pretty fecking screwed.

So in summary to this ramble:

- I think polls are misreading turnout and the young demographic especially.
- Biden is doing good in NC.
- Trumps attempts to mess with the USPS have backfired. (except for when I order stuff which then takes 2 months to arrive. It's definitely worked at messing that up)
[-Tillis is fecked]
- This post was gonna cover demographics too, but it became too long.
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Good analysis. Really hope you're right on the huge increase in votes and what it likely means, just too scarred by 2016 to believe it until it's official.
 
calodo2003 said:
What swing state results will be known on election night (or by Wednesday at the latest) other than the following?:

Florida
Arizona
NC (read that they claim they will have 99% of ballots counted on election night
Iowa

And, if Biden wins three of these states (not seeing Iowa as potentially a Biden win as the other three), is there any meaningful chance that Trump will be able to get to 270?
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FL and NC we should know fast. And no. If Biden wins florida its over imo. If Trump wins, it gets interesting.
 
SirAF said:
I wouldn't think so. Biden has several paths and doesn't necessarily need Florida while Trump most definitely need a win there.

Biden can do without Arizona (and Nevada) too as long as he holds the Rust Belt + NC.
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Those are my overall feelings as well. It would be far more satisfying to see the election called for Biden on Tuesday night / Wednesday before the right can even start to express their outrage over a ‘corrupt’ election result.
 
owlo said:
FL and NC we should know fast. And no. If Biden wins florida its over imo. If Trump wins, it gets interesting.
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Forgot to tag you directly as I truly enjoy your posts in here. Just trying to figure out how many days I need to take off in order to satisfyingly enjoy the election.
 
calodo2003 said:
Those are my overall feelings as well. It would be far more satisfying to see the election called for Biden on Tuesday night / Wednesday before the right can even start to express their outrage over a ‘corrupt’ election result.
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Oh definitely! I'm planning to pull an all nighter here in Norway and it would be bitterly anticlimatic if it's not decided on the night :lol:
 
TheGame said:
This is the former aide to Nigel Farage, former Breitbart Editor and Bannon stooge, Raheem Kassam obsessed with the Hunter Biden story:

https://twitter.com/RaheemKassam

Does anyone know if any of this is true or is this a last desperate attempt to smear Biden?
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Well, no need to worry about this as it’s apparently not trending number one on the bellweather Twitter.

Even if this turns out to be a completely true story in every regard, the right simply fecked up the roll out massively. Everyone knew that early voting had the possibility of being historically epic in size & October surprises don’t necessarily need to only occur in October. It’s like locking the barn door, installing Ring monitors, digging a moat filled with piranhas around the barn, positioning snipers in towers outside the barn, & laying mines in the soil immediately around the moat after the cows have already been led to processing & their meat is already on supermarket shelves.
 
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SirAF said:
Oh definitely! I'm planning to pull an all nighter here in Norway and it would be bitterly anticlimatic if it's not decided on the night :lol:
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With how late this all goes down in the US, aren't you better off trying to get up early like 4-5 am?
 
Mr Pigeon said:
Yeah, probably. But I like to imagine him losing the election and then arguing with a room full of lawyers as he stuffs burgers into his mouth.
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Don't worry Pidgey, I'm sure there will be plenty of lawyers in his immediate future.
 
calodo2003 said:
Well, no need to worry about this as it’s apparently not trending number one on the bellweather Twitter.

Even if this turns out to be a completely true story in every regard, the right simply fecked up the roll out massively. Everyone knew that early voting had the possibility of being historically epic in size & October surprises don’t necessarily need to only occur in October. It’s like locking the barn door, installing Ring monitors, digging a moat filled with piranhas around the barn, positioning snipers in towers outside the barn, & laying mines in the soil immediately around the moat after the cows have already been led to processing & their meat is already on supermarket shelves.
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Where did they get the emails from?
 
calodo2003 said:
Forgot to tag you directly as I truly enjoy your posts in here. Just trying to figure out how many days I need to take off in order to satisfyingly enjoy the election.
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Haha np. It's slow as paint drying for me as Manchester is in lockdown and I have nowhere to go. I'll just be crashing around doing nothing for a few months doing nothing productive! Tempted to repair the Nordhavn and go on another adventure; life is rather boring, and I don't even know what my next project will be.

Be happy, we're stuck with our buffoon for another 4 years. And in 2 months we get brexit, in the middle of a pandemic.
 
TheGame said:
Sorry perhaps should have explained. Havent kept up to date with the story. Just wondered as you posted, you or anyone know how the emails had been leaked? I've read about Wikileaks etc but not clear.
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Don’t know the minutae, but the path is somewhat from the blind computer guy through Giuliani / Brannon to the NY Post from what was apparently found on the laptop. Toss in FBI involvement somewhere in that timeline.
 
calodo2003 said:
Uh oh, you mean the laptop isn’t the number one trend?

We’ve got this in the bag, then. I mean, it’s trending on Twitter after all.
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Not sure what you're getting at.

The point is that Biden calling Trump 'George' led to 'Tim Apple' trending, which was a similar gaffe Trump made when referring to Apple CEO Tim Cook.
 
Salt Bailly said:
Not sure what you're getting at.

The point is that Biden calling Trump 'George' led to 'Tim Apple' trending, which was a similar gaffe Trump made when referring to Apple CEO Tim Cook.
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I was referring to how some on here have anointed Twitter as a credible source of how the election may be determined due to what was trending high on Twitter (specifically the laptop lunacy). Now that ‘Tim Apple’ is trending, I sarcastically said that it’s now in the bag for us to win the election.

Nothing in the slightest aimed at your post!
 
calodo2003 said:
I was referring to how some on here have anointed Twitter as a credible source of how the election may be determined due to what was trending high on Twitter (specifically the laptop lunacy). Now that ‘Tim Apple’ is trending, I sarcastically said that it’s now in the bag for us to win the election.

Nothing in the slightest aimed at your post!
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Ah, gotcha - sorry, my reading comprehension clearly not with it today!
 
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