2020 US Elections | Biden certified as President | Dems control Congress

Status
Not open for further replies.
Why is Stacey Abrams so popular with rank and file democrats? Because she nearly won Georgia in an environment where Democrats where winning by 8-9 points nationally in the congressional ballot? So she's the female Beto O'Rourke?

Wonder if she actually ran like Beto did her star would have faded by now.
Raoul said:
Click to expand...


We've seen this stuff before though in 2016 with Clinton when there was talk she was going to possibly win states like Texas, Utah, Georgia etc. Never happened.
 
SharpshooterTom said:
Why is Stacey Abrams so popular with rank and file democrats? Because she nearly won Georgia in an environment where Democrats where winning by 8-9 points nationally in the congressional ballot? So she's the female Beto O'Rourke?

Wonder if she actually ran like Beto did her star would have faded by now.


We've seen this stuff before though in 2016 with Clinton when there was talk she was going to possibly win states like Texas, Utah, Georgia etc. Never happened.
Click to expand...
Who thought she was winning Texas or Utah?

I’d wager we’re still an election cycle or two from flipping Texas without a Texan on the ballot.
 
SharpshooterTom said:
Why is Stacey Abrams so popular with rank and file democrats? Because she nearly won Georgia in an environment where Democrats where winning by 8-9 points nationally in the congressional ballot? So she's the female Beto O'Rourke?

Wonder if she actually ran like Beto did her star would have faded by now.


We've seen this stuff before though in 2016 with Clinton when there was talk she was going to possibly win states like Texas, Utah, Georgia etc. Never happened.
Click to expand...

Texas is trending blue and is where Arizona was about 5 years ago and where Colorado was 10 years ago imo. Biden may not win it, but it will be a lot closer than Hillary's performance or if the Dems were running someone like Sanders down there.
 
Texas is definitely turning blue at some point, that's just simple demographics. The only way that doesn't happen is if the Republicans manage to entice Hispanics to vote for them, which is very hard to do when you're simultaneously trying to fight a Culture War against the left and the immigrants.

Of course, many of the traditionally blue states might continue turning red. Trump might not last more than one term, but he did win 2016, and his strategy won't be forgotten.
 
SharpshooterTom said:
Polls were showing her tied in Utah or within the margin of error.

http://www.surveyusa.com/client/PollReport.aspx?g=fd3a327c-92e3-437a-867c-b90ec9179363

Trump ended up winning the state by 18 points.
Click to expand...

The situations are very different, though. This was fairly soon after the Republican primaries, and the process of the GOP turning into the party of Trump had just begun. Keep in mind that for long, he was actually quite unpopular among Republicans.

Interestingly, his lack of popularity lead many pundits to conclude that conventional wisdom made it very unlikely he would win the nomination. They expected the party establishment to coalesce around one establishment candidate, pretty much like the Democratic party establishment did to defeat Sanders this year. For a while, it looked like the unwillingness of moderate establishment candidates to drop out of the race might actually let Sanders repeat Trump's victory.
 
nimic said:
Texas is definitely turning blue at some point, that's just simple demographics. The only way that doesn't happen is if the Republicans manage to entice Hispanics to vote for them, which is very hard to do when you're simultaneously trying to fight a Culture War against the left and the immigrants.

Of course, many of the traditionally blue states might continue turning red. Trump might not last more than one term, but he did win 2016, and his strategy won't be forgotten.
Click to expand...

100%. Any formerly red state with a very large population center is in danger of turning blue at some point fairly soon.
 
nimic said:
Texas is definitely turning blue at some point, that's just simple demographics. The only way that doesn't happen is if the Republicans manage to entice Hispanics to vote for them, which is very hard to do when you're simultaneously trying to fight a Culture War against the left and the immigrants.

Of course, many of the traditionally blue states might continue turning red. Trump might not last more than one term, but he did win 2016, and his strategy won't be forgotten.
Click to expand...

The 'demographics is destiny' strategy from the democrats is not an attitude I'm comfortable IMO, it looks complacent and arrogant.

James Carville predicted the democrats would hold power for the next 40 years when the Republicans were obliterated in 2008 as did many other prominant democrats. I'm sure the people said the same thing after Watergate too.

Parties change over time. The GOP will eventually when the likes of Rush Limbaugh and his generation die off and Gen X and Millennials gradually taking over the party making it somewhat more pro science/pro LGBT at least slightly more respectable. History shows the US alternates between parties.

People banking on the democrats to hold an infinite amount of power are short sighted IMO, people will get sick of the democrats eventually and when the GOP reform and present an attractive altnerative they will eventually win back power.

I would still wager the GOP will do well at the 2022 mid terms.
 
SharpshooterTom said:
The 'demographics is destiny' strategy from the democrats is not an attitude I'm comfortable IMO, it looks complacent and arrogant.

James Carville predicted the democrats would hold power for the next 40 years when the Republicans were obliterated in 2008 as did many other prominant democrats. I'm sure the people said the same thing after Watergate too.

Parties change over time. The GOP will eventually when the likes of Rush Limbaugh and his generation die off and Gen X and Millennials gradually taking over the party making it somewhat more pro science/pro LGBT at least slightly more respectable. History shows the US alternates between parties.

People banking on the democrats to hold an infinite amount of power are short sighted IMO, people will get sick of the democrats eventually and when the GOP reform and present an attractive altnerative they will eventually win back power.

I would still wager the GOP will do well at the 2022 mid terms.
Click to expand...

The GOP did change, which enabled it to continue doing well, but it didn't back away from the culture war. If anything it ran headlong into it. As long as that culture war includes opposition to immigration, the GOP won't change the demographic march of Texas and similar states. Of course, the Democrats might need that democratic march to counter Republican advances in the Midwest and elsewhere.
 
nimic said:
The GOP did change, which enabled it to continue doing well, but it didn't back away from the culture war. If anything it ran headlong into it. As long as that culture war includes opposition to immigration, the GOP won't change the demographic march of Texas and similar states. Of course, the Democrats might need that democratic march to counter Republican advances in the Midwest and elsewhere.
Click to expand...

I think the GOP will change, the party certainly wants to pivot to a more pro immigration stance, the voters however don't and thats the problem.

As long as you have people like Laura Ingraham promoting white nationalism around on TV influencing GOP voters who they select as candidates, it will make it difficult for them to move foward. However I think some of those people including Steve Bannon are going to be widely discredited when Trump loses, there's no credible pathway for white greviance politics long term and most of the GOP rank and file know this, some of their voters will start to vote more pragmatically in future.
 
Last edited:
What are the chances of Biden pulls out the Dems putting in Cuomo as the nominee? I personally think Bernie should get the chance if Biden pulls out but the powers to be would force Biden to run if Bernie has a chance. They would not push too much if it's Cuomo?
 
SharpshooterTom said:
The 'demographics is destiny' strategy from the democrats is not an attitude I'm comfortable IMO, it looks complacent and arrogant.

James Carville predicted the democrats would hold power for the next 40 years when the Republicans were obliterated in 2008 as did many other prominant democrats. I'm sure the people said the same thing after Watergate too.

Parties change over time. The GOP will eventually when the likes of Rush Limbaugh and his generation die off and Gen X and Millennials gradually taking over the party making it somewhat more pro science/pro LGBT at least slightly more respectable. History shows the US alternates between parties.

People banking on the democrats to hold an infinite amount of power are short sighted IMO, people will get sick of the democrats eventually and when the GOP reform and present an attractive altnerative they will eventually win back power.

I would still wager the GOP will do well at the 2022 mid terms.
Click to expand...
The Dems definitely shouldn’t take the Latino vote for granted. They can be as conservative as anyone else, and a shocking number I know personally are still pro-Trump because their priority is jobs and they think he’s better for that.

That is why the message has to be more than ‘we’re not Trump’.
 
SharpshooterTom said:
I think the GOP will change, the party certainly wants to pivot to a more pro immigration stance, the voters however don't and thats the problem.

As long as you have people like Laura Ingraham promoting white nationalism around on TV influencing GOP voters who they select as candidates, it will make it difficult for them. However I think some of those people including Steve Bannon are going to be widely discredited when Trump loses, there's no credible pathway for white greviance politics long term and most of the GOP rank and file know this, some of their voters will start to vote more pragmatically in future.
Click to expand...

I havent seen any evidence that they want to change. If anything, the power structure of the party is driven by Fox and Talk Radio, which are promoting more hardline positions on immigration.
 
SharpshooterTom said:
The 'demographics is destiny' strategy from the democrats is not an attitude I'm comfortable IMO, it looks complacent and arrogant.

James Carville predicted the democrats would hold power for the next 40 years when the Republicans were obliterated in 2008 as did many other prominant democrats. I'm sure the people said the same thing after Watergate too.

Parties change over time. The GOP will eventually when the likes of Rush Limbaugh and his generation die off and Gen X and Millennials gradually taking over the party making it somewhat more pro science/pro LGBT at least slightly more respectable. History shows the US alternates between parties.

People banking on the democrats to hold an infinite amount of power are short sighted IMO, people will get sick of the democrats eventually and when the GOP reform and present an attractive altnerative they will eventually win back power.

I would still wager the GOP will do well at the 2022 mid terms.
Click to expand...
Bless your innocent soul.
 
Raoul said:
I havent seen any evidence that they want to change. If anything, the power structure of the party is driven by Fox and Talk Radio, which are promoting more hardline positions on immigration.
Click to expand...

They can't because they're using Trump to hold onto power so going along with his agenda respecting the wish of their voters for now. But I do think you will see a huge civil war break out within the party should Trump lose, because they know long term Trumpism is just not electorally feasible and I think that brand of politics will be discredited eventually, it may continue in a more diluted form but the blatant racism you see from the likes of Trump and Stephen Miller will be phased out. The thing is a lot Trump voters actually think Trumpism long term will be successful, they don't see it currently the way we do as they're that deluded, they think Trump will win this election in a landslide. But I do think when Trump loses it will be a reality check for some of them about what is and isn't electable.

I don't think they'll pivot too much whilst out of power, because the GOP know from the Obama years being awkward obstructive bastards is good for winning back seats at congressional level, but I do think the next GOP candidate in 2024 might take a much softer approach to immigration in the general election.
 
Wasn't it last year people were trivialising Joe's creepy behaviour? It was just goofy old Joe being touchygrabbyfeely. Now the defense is the opposite. Joe would apparently never go too far without consent say the same people.

Seems #firechrishayes is trending for even covering the accusation. US media is ridiculous.
 
Raoul said:
I havent seen any evidence that they want to change. If anything, the power structure of the party is driven by Fox and Talk Radio, which are promoting more hardline positions on immigration.
Click to expand...
So you...don’t think they’ll pivot?
 
Blodssvik said:
Wasn't it last year people were trivialising Joe's creepy behaviour? It was just goofy old Joe being touchygrabbyfeely. Now the defense is the opposite. Joe would apparently never go too far without consent say the same people.

Seems #firechrishayes is trending for even covering the accusation. US media is ridiculous.
Click to expand...

The US media is going to heavily damage their reputation with this election, not just with Trumpites who we never liked them anyway but with never Trumpers/other conservatives, Bernie supporting progressives, in fact the only people who respect them are centrist pro establishment democrats, since they've made it abundently clear that's who they openly root for.

Kavanuagh was very likely guilty, but conservatives are right to point out there's a difference the way he was treated and the way Biden was.

If Bernie had this accusation against him back in January/February when he was still a realistic candidate for the party he would've been destroyed.
 
SharpshooterTom said:
They can't because they're using Trump to hold onto power so going along with his agenda respecting the wish of their voters for now. But I do think you will see a huge civil war break out within the party should Trump lose, because they know long term Trumpism is just not electorally feasible and I think that brand of politics will be discredited eventually, it may continue in a more diluted form but the blatant racism you see from the likes of Trump and Stephen Miller will be phased out. The thing is a lot Trump voters actually think Trumpism long term will be successful, they don't see it currently the way we do as they're that deluded, they think Trump will win this election in a landslide. But I do think when Trump loses it will be a reality check for some of them about what is and isn't electable.

I don't think they'll pivot too much whilst out of power, because the GOP know from the Obama years being awkward obstructive bastards is good for winning back seats at congressional level, but I do think the next GOP candidate in 2024 might take a much softer approach to immigration in the general election.
Click to expand...

Not sure about a civil war but there will be more GOPers who want to return to the pre-Trump norms. Unfortunately, a vast majority of them previously fell in line behind Trump's idiocy and will now have to deal with it whenever he leaves. Also, as long as Fox and Talk Radio control the GOP narrative, it will continue to be a party of tribal crazies instead of a return to where they were before Trump arrived.
 
Raoul said:
Not sure about a civil war but there will be more GOPers who want to return to the pre-Trump norms. Unfortunately, a vast majority of them previously fell in line behind Trump's idiocy and will now have to deal with it whenever he leaves. Also, as long as Fox and Talk Radio control the GOP narrative, it will continue to be a party of tribal crazies instead of a return to where they were before Trump arrived.
Click to expand...

You'd think the way Trump has turned on them calling for a rival conservative network because they dare occassionally criticise him, surely it must be dawning on them the cult has gotten out of hand and finally some moderation or check is now needed? Remember Fox News is a business first and foremost and its in their interests to have the Republican party competitive and winning elections, I'd say Trump has got as many enemies as he does friends in that network.
 
SharpshooterTom said:
The US media is going to heavily damage their reputation with this election, not just with Trumpites who we never liked them anyway but with never Trumpers/other conservatives, Bernie supporting progressives, in fact the only people who respect them are centrist pro establishment democrats, since they've made it abundently clear that's who they openly root for.

Kavanuagh was very likely guilty, but conservatives are right to point out there's a difference the way he was treated and the way Biden was.

If Bernie had this accusation against him back in January/February when he was still a realistic candidate for the party he would've been destroyed.
Click to expand...
Dems didn’t ask Ford why she never filed a police report nor did they ask her why she was coming forward now. All points which they are now using to smear Tara Reade.
 
Foxbatt said:
What are the chances of Biden pulls out the Dems putting in Cuomo as the nominee? I personally think Bernie should get the chance if Biden pulls out but the powers to be would force Biden to run if Bernie has a chance. They would not push too much if it's Cuomo?
Click to expand...

The chances Biden leaves the race are very slim. He's beating Trump is most battleground polls and looks to have a decent shot at winning the Presidency.
 
Last edited:
entropy said:
Dems didn’t ask Ford why she never filed a police report nor did they ask her why she was coming forward now. All points which they are now using to smear Tara Reade.
Click to expand...
I mean, they literally did both of those things, in a public hearing, under oath. But hey ho, please continue.
 
SharpshooterTom said:
I don't think they'll pivot too much whilst out of power, because the GOP know from the Obama years being awkward obstructive bastards is good for winning back seats at congressional level, but I do think the next GOP candidate in 2024 might take a much softer approach to immigration in the general election.
Click to expand...

Nah. They will continue down the nativist, racist, religious nut job path, while flanking the Dems on trade and welfare (for the white majority) from the left, at least in rhetorics.

Tucker Carlson and Steve Bannon have already clamoured for that approach for a while, and the GOP base are very receptive to those socially repugnant economically populist ideas.
 
Beachryan said:
I mean, they literally did both of those things, in a public hearing, under oath. But hey ho, please continue.
Click to expand...

My dude, for the 1000th time, why don’t you just get some help? I’ve stopped replying to you after you rage typed nonsense in response to sexual assault survivors explaining why they wouldn’t vote for Biden. You don’t seem to give a shit about these issues, but seem weirdly desperate to feign awareness about sexual assault or rape.
 
Raoul said:
Click to expand...


The US Senate seat is a legitimate question as Charlie Baker will fill her seat with a Republican, sure you'd think the Democrats would win it back in a special election because its Massachusetts but we all remember what happened to Martha Coakley.
 
entropy said:
My dude, for the 1000th time, why don’t you just get some help? I’ve stopped replying to you after you rage typed nonsense in response to sexual assault survivors explaining why they wouldn’t vote for Biden. You don’t seem to give a shit about these issues, but seem weirdly desperate to feign awareness about sexual assault or rape.
Click to expand...
My fellow dude, firstly, you're literally replying to me. Secondly, you just accused democrats of not asking Blasey Ford why she didn't go to the police at the time, and why she came forward when she did. I was simply pointing out that the democrats did both of those things, under oath. You can go and watch video of it.

On the topic at hand, I expect very soon if not today Biden will have to respond publically, which will move these accusations into the next phase. He can't keep dodging forever, nor should he. The fact that he's taken this long is pretty unforgivable imo.
 
SharpshooterTom said:
The US Senate seat is a legitimate question as Charlie Baker will fill her seat with a Republican, sure you'd think the Democrats would win it back in a special election because its Massachusetts but we all remember what happened to Martha Coakley.
Click to expand...

I think Baker would give it to a GOP guy but Ed Markey would probably win it back, since Joe Kennedy is probably going to beat Markey out for his Senate seat. Its a risky proposition if Biden went that route, since tipping the Senate to the GOP would put a massive dent in Biden's Presidency if he gets elected.
 
On Warren - I really like her policies, intelligence and the depth with which she tackles issues, so would have loved her to be the candidate.

But as another septuagenarian white American, I think Biden has to pick a younger, and likely more diverse VP.
 
Raoul said:
I think Baker would give it to a GOP guy but Ed Markey would probably win it back, since Joe Kennedy is probably going to beat Markey out for his Senate seat. Its a risky proposition if Biden went that route, since tipping the Senate to the GOP would put a massive dent in Biden's Presidency if he gets elected.
Click to expand...
Presumably the seat isn't up again until 2022?
 
Raoul said:
By statute, it would need to take place 145-160 days after the vacancy, so whoever Baker would appoint would only be viable for 4-5 months.
Click to expand...
Ah interesting, so they could have potentially have a democrat back in time for a democratic President (crosses fingers, prays etc)
 
Beachryan said:
My fellow dude, firstly, you're literally replying to me. Secondly, you just accused democrats of not asking Blasey Ford why she didn't go to the police at the time, and why she came forward when she did. I was simply pointing out that the democrats did both of those things, under oath. You can go and watch video of it.

On the topic at hand, I expect very soon if not today Biden will have to respond publically, which will move these accusations into the next phase. He can't keep dodging forever, nor should he. The fact that he's taken this long is pretty unforgivable imo.
Click to expand...
You do realize you quoted me first, right? And if you actually read up instead of rage typing nonsense you’d know that Tara said she wants to testify as well.
 
Status
Not open for further replies.