Lets be honest about this, Biden is
probably going to win this election. There are some bad takes from Bernie supporters that Biden is going to get "destroyed" by Trump, or Trump wins in a landslide victory etc.
None of this is based on reality, Biden is leading in nearly every single poll, by big margins in a lot of them. In fact according to RCP, he's led 23 out of the past 24 national head to head polls against Trump, including most of the swing states.
https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2020/president/us/general_election_trump_vs_biden-6247.html
By contrast, Obama as the incumbant, was beating Romney in nearly every single poll at this stage in 2012.
https://www.realclearpolitics.com/e...us/general_election_romney_vs_obama-1171.html
I'm no fan of Hillary, but she was unlucky not to win against Trump, she had a bad news cycle 10 days before which saw her numbers plunge allowing Trump to get within striking distance of her. Even then she still won the popular vote and Trump won a bunch swing states very narrowly, I think his election was a bit of fluke tbh, a lot had to go his way and it did.
If you were to run the 2016 election over again as 10 different simulations, Hillary would've won something like 7 or 8 of them and Trump 2 or 3. Unfortunately Trump won but I'm not sure lightening will strike twice.
Biden's not a great candidate but Trump is a really really bad one. I still think most of those 16 other GOP canidadates in 2016 would fare better than him.
Again lets not downplay Biden's chances, he'll probably win this election, especially after Covid-19 and unemployment likley to be near 15%. However I do fear for the democratic party long term under him, I think the GOP will rebuild very quickly with a Biden presidency and the 2022 mid terms might be a bloodbath. I mean if an inspiring charismatic Obama couldn't stop massive losses in both his mid terms what do you think a dull 80 year old senile president is going to do?
The GOP will likely go into the 2024 elections holding both houses once again.