2020 US Elections | Biden certified as President | Dems control Congress
- Thread starter Raoul
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The economy on the face of it is good. Benefiting from Obama's work but the damage that economists were predicting with a Trump election hasn't happened. If this continues to hold he has a feather in his cap of being able to reel of statistics.
The damage will be clear when he's out and a Democrat has to clean up the mess. Tens of millions of people in this country have nothing saved, nothing invested and living pay period to pay period. They think the economy is good because you don't have Republicans in the opposition screaming about how the economy is crumbling and we are doomed. That will most likely happen on the evening of January 20th 2021 when a Dem president is sworn in.
The reality is for the vast majority of people in this country there is no difference between their pockets now and in 2016 unless you factor in health care which is where my family has seen the biggest increase in our expenses.
The average H2H for Bernie-Trump is +3, for Warren is +0.5. Biden is +4. All are doing badly but Warren and Pete are alost sure to lose.
Agreed
Here.....comes......BERNIE!!!!
Biden's Social Security cuts statements in the Senate is beginning to have an effect too.
Obviously since both Sanders and Trump are viewed as competing for populist voters.
Also a pretty obvious statement from trump when you look back at primary results. Bernie pulled out some "shock wins", did better in states than he should have during the primary and instead of having any kind of revaluation or critical thinking, the clinton campaign just kept driving off the cliff because "nobody will vote for trump in the GE". The arrogance and "born to rule" mentality of her whole campaign completely missed the mood of the country.
When you're only going to speak to those that agree with you, take others for granted, it's pretty obvious to see why you can run up the score in the popular vote, yet lose the college.
Wonder who the Republican candidate will be. It won't be Trump. Look up what he looked and sounded like nine months ago, in April. It wasn't great, but compared to the shuffling, bloated mess that has unintelligible, slurred word salad pouring out of his mouth whenever he makes a public appearance now it's night and day. In just a matter of days he's admitted to withholding evidence at a press conference in Davos, claimed that the wheel was invented in the US and praised the efforts to create safe zones in Syria and that "they have the oil and things" to a man who has pretty much no relation to Syria. Imagine how much worse he'll be like after being ravaged by dementia for another nine months, a week before election day. I doubt we'll ever even know. He'll probably be removed from the public eye well before that. I can't wait. Orange cnut.
Pete seems to be lingering about for longer than expected.
Can we quote you on that?
Its looking good for Bernie. Minimum expectations now for the Bernie camp should be winning Iowa, which should then result in a NH win.
I don't think many (if any) of us expected Bernie to come back and regain the momentum after he suffered those health issues.
I think that Amy Klobuchar sounds like Susan Collins on speed
especially with the corporate media gunning for him as well.
Still. The only polls that matter are on election day.
will be VERY interesting to see what happens if Bernie takes both IW and NH. Biden's entire campaign is built on nostalgia and highlighting good polls in ad's. I think we can almost pencil in SC as a Biden win, but a part from that, does he retain any support if he loses the first 2? What ad's does he run when the facade around "electability" is shattered?
at the least, i'd imagine Biden has to win one of the first two to not see support crumble.
For me, the only thing I'm looking at is who wins the southern states since that is where Biden is strong. If he holds serve there it will be very hard to beat him to the nomination. Expecting Bernie to win IA by a small margin and NH decisively, Biden should take NV and SC.
Not sure it would be a shock at this stage if he won Iowa decisively.
EDIT - The silly baseball man you used to like seems to think Bernie's favourite to win Nevada as well.
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Nah. If Biden hasn’t fallen back dramatically after all the goofy shit he has said already, then the die is nearly cast.
Odds.
Bernie 6/4
Biden 2/1
Bloomberg 6/1
Warren 13/2
Buttigieg 12/1
Bernie 6/4
Biden 2/1
Bloomberg 6/1
Warren 13/2
Buttigieg 12/1
who's gonna tell him?
not really. Two big reasons why Biden is doing well pre-polling day is 1. notability and 2. Dem's wanting a candidate they THINK can win. Hence why Joe's entire campaign is: Obama, Malarkey Tour, Youth have it easy, Republicans will work with me, Corn Pop, I'm the most electable against trump see X poll.
Biden is actually running ads right now that end with him saying "he's the most electable candidate against trump in polls".
You take away IW, you take away NH, what is he running on? He's an awful policy man, he persuades people with charm on the campaign trail. Get into policy and he folds and fumbles around like a drunk football fan. How does he make the electability argument? Hell, i just posted an article above that a SC rep withdrew their endorsement of Biden because she thought he'd be an ok compromise endorsement.
The best thing Biden has going for him is that he doesn't have the hatred-history of Hillary. If Biden stumbles his way to the nomination, I can see him beating trump BARELY. I just question whether he can survive losing both opening votes and not come out of them a VERY compromised candidate.
Shit question.
People that can't afford study should be helped more than others. If your family has resources, you should receive help also to study but at a different scale though. Also, positive policies have to start somewhere, someday leaving the past behind (or not if there is resources or it could be intrdouced progressively retroactively) or we would not move forward
Biden still has a narrow lead in NV but its substantially down from Nov. I feel a good feeling about NV for Bernie as long as they avoid some of the bullshit that happened last time out.
He running strongly so far because he’s doing very well with black voters, which is why he is polling so well in the south. Iowa, for instance, doesn’t really represent the national Dem demographics, so it wouldn’t be a big deal if he doesn’t come in first there. The real harbinger for Biden will be how well he does in SC, since that is far more representative to the national demographics for Dem voters.
According to FiveThirtyEight, South Carolina is even more unrepresentative of the Democratic electorate than New Hampshire and Iowa.
The only states (and DC) that are less representative are DC, Alabama, Alaska, Mississippi and Hawaii.
Well a large and growing number of Dem voters are non-white, so Iowa (which is pretty homogeneous and white) wouldn’t be the place to look for a candidate’s longer term viability this cycle. NH is pretty much Sanders’ back yard so he was always going to do well there. His big challenge will be dislodging black voters from the Biden camp in the southern states, since he more or less can’t win without them.
Margins matter. Clinton often had a 40, 50 points spread for instance against Sanders in the Southern states, so if Biden wins them still but with only a 20 pts spread it cuts down the delegate share a lot.
Also you have to imagine Sanders doing better this time around in northern or western big states like NY, PA, CA. That also has an effect on the delegate count. By that point it becomes an attrition fight over every states and you’d think Biden’s anemic fundraising will become a big issue for him. He can’t run on the Trump playbook of getting free earned media.
Also you have to imagine Sanders doing better this time around in northern or western big states like NY, PA, CA. That also has an effect on the delegate count. By that point it becomes an attrition fight over every states and you’d think Biden’s anemic fundraising will become a big issue for him. He can’t run on the Trump playbook of getting free earned media.
I definitely agree, but it's also important to keep in mind that non-hispanic white voters still make up the majority of the Democratic electorate. In that sense South Carolina is very unrepresentative of the Democratic electorate for the general election. But there's absolutely something to the idea that Biden doesn't need to win Iowa or NH, but he really needs to win South Carolina. As you say, he's relying heavily on the black voters.
He should be a little bit worried that Sanders is also quite popular with black voters, even though they still largely prefer Biden. That means they might flip, particularly if Sanders does very well in the states before that.
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