She holds the key to the Oval Office
2020 US Elections | Biden certified as President | Dems control Congress
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I’m interested to know who Rosario Dawson intends to endorse?
I find Taylor Swift's lack of endorsement VERY problematic considering this is the year 2019
You think it's implausible that either a) the majority of Democrats would vote for anyone but Sanders, or that b) the majority of the population would vote for Trump, if Sanders won? Not whether it's something you would think is the right the decision, or even whether you think it's a likely outcome, but you don't think it's a possibility?
Unbelievable that you haven't been banned yet or at least thrown out of the CE.
Also has to be said, while Buttigieg is an awful awful candidate, the constant homophobic dog whistling in this thread is pathetic.
No one I know is going to vote for Trump if Bernie won, much less the majority of the population. If that is a possibility I believe it to be a small one. Bernie has been mostly polling 2nd behind biden so I cant see the majority of dems voting for anyone but Sanders.
I posted an article.
Feel free to refute it with some data.
Wishful thinking does not count. Anyone but Sanders. good grief.
you mean you have a dirty mind.
Care to highlight some examples of this?
you have a problem with comprehension?
What did I respond to?
Anyone but Sanders?? Do you believe that is how Americans will vote?
it's pointless to post poll numbers without uncucking them first
Yummy. Just saying.
What? Where?
That's my default state when reading your posts.
Is Sanders leading in the polls? No? Then it really shouldn't be so difficult for you to imagine a world where Sanders loses to Trump, or Sanders loses to Biden or Warren. In any case, I'm pretty sure @Brwned wasn't claiming that voters would pick all other candidates over Sanders, but rather was wondering whether you really thought it was so unthinkable that Sanders would not be the first choice for the electorate (Democratic or general).
This is what I was replying to.
No critical thinking.
That's your problem.
EDIT:
Anything is possible. The world could end tomorrow.
Grow up man.
https://www.nytimes.com/2019/12/26/us/politics/bernie-sanders-iowa-democrats.html
Why Bernie Sanders Is Tough to Beat
His supporters are loyal, and in Iowa they don’t really have eyes for anyone else.
Why Bernie Sanders Is Tough to Beat
His supporters are loyal, and in Iowa they don’t really have eyes for anyone else.
Obviously that's what you were replying to. That doesn't change the fact that you more than likely misunderstand what he was saying, and so your charge of a lack of comprehension is more than a little ironic.
Why are y’all spending the holiday season in this thread?
It’s always been the most boring time of primaries, poorly watched debate, poor response rate in polls. Middle of Jan is when it picks up ahead of Iowa.
It’s always been the most boring time of primaries, poorly watched debate, poor response rate in polls. Middle of Jan is when it picks up ahead of Iowa.
I'm afraid nimic was right, and you misunderstood. The first post you replied to was the simple point that while, yes, one problem with Biden is that lots of people look at Biden and only see Trump winning, lots of people also look at Sanders and see that too.
That's why Trump won last time, Sanders didn't win last time, and the poll numbers have consistently shown it to be very even (if we want to exclude those favouring Trump) this time round. Most republicans look at either Biden or Sanders and reject them.
It's plausible that more of the centrist Republicans would consider Biden than the fringe Republicans would consider Sanders, just because that's how the political spectrum is right now. But presumably we can both agree most Republicans will vote for Trump again, regardless of which of those two he faces.
So then it's a question of how many Democrats would vote for either, and how many independents are pulled either way. There's more division among the Democrats currently but ultimately most people will still vote on party lines. Beyond that, it's an undeniable truth that there are more centrist Democrats than progressives in the voting public. If it was Sanders vs. a centrist Republican, I suspect many Democrats would lean away from Sanders. I don't think many would switch to Trump though. Whereas the progressives are clearly animated enough to reject Biden, but again I don't think many would vote for Trump, so most will still reluctantly vote on party lines and others will drop out.
So it's unsurprisingly mainly left to the independents. It's absolutely possible that Sanders can persuade them to vote for his much more hopeful message. Biden from my perspective is wholeheartedly unimpressive, and I struggle to see him winning more hearts and minds than Trump, but ultimately America is a conservative country and Biden is experienced, measured, even-handed and all those other things that make many people feel safer about with him than either Trump or Sanders.
However the reality is a 2nd term president also signals stability, and the majority of people often do go with the status quo. A lot of the messaging against Trump's stability before he became president won't land now - he hasn't come close to starting WWIII, he hasn't been especially trigger happy, he isn't that loose cannon in the way it was portrayed. He's many other terrible things people expected, but they fundamentally matter a lot less to people. His presidency hasn't been unsuccessful, by most people's measures.
So, long story short, all I was saying is it's true that a lot of people don't like Biden, Democrats included, and Trump might beat him. The same is also true of Sanders. It's foolish to ignore the latter while emphasising the former.
I have to say I think Sanders is probably the person trump would want to be up against most of the assumptive top 4
I think Sanders is on the left of the democratic party making him pretty far left in the overall context of us politics... Hes recently had a heart attack and he will be 80 years old by the time of the election
If course he will have a line of attack against all the candidates
Biden... You and your son are corrupt
Pete ... Your an inexperienced kid (though he might just attack him for being gay because it's trump and he's that horrible)
Warren... Pocahontas
But I think the attacks on Bernie are actually the easiest and give. His age and heart attack he will probably attack the vp candidate a lot as well saying a vote for Bernie is really a vote for his VP to be president (which makes me think about vp picks )
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I don't know how much stock I'd put in who Trump would most want to be up against. Is his judgement that good?
I'd say his attack line on Biden will land pretty well with his base and many sepctical of career politicians. It's firmly entrenched at this point and I've not seen Biden defend it particularly well. The other two are pretty weak I'd agree, while there are legitimate vulnerabilities to target for Bernie.
But then that seems like a pretty one sided way of looking at it. Sanders is probably capable of mounting the strongest attacks against Trump and landing many of them. At that point I think a lot less of it will be about how they attack each other though. A choice between Sanders and Trump is so clear-cut on so many dimensions that people will be choosing on those. For the others, that's less true.
Likley V.P. picks for the top contenders
What do people think will happen here (given the age of some of the candidates I think it will possibly play a part in the campaign)
Biden... I'd guess a woman to put some gender balance on the ticket possibly Stacey Abraham's?
Sanders... AOC is too young I think possibly Abraham's again? but most probably a woman for gender balance
Warren... Gender balance would point towards a man and her relatively poor ratings among ethnic minorities would I guess make Castro or booker the most likley but
Buttegig... Kamala?... Balances out the ticket somewhat and she lends some experience to the ticket as well.
I'm not sure if Abraham's will be bidens / Sanders pick but she has certainly intimated she is interested in the role... I also think the work she has done with the fair fight foundation is going to help Dems a lot come election time
Whoever Sanders / Biden pick though they will need to have strong credentials as not only will age probably be a factor (and therefore suitability of the VP) but also given how fragmented things are the republicans will probably be looking for an impeachment opportunity even before they take over
Is there any realistic options I've left out? To be honest I've not really thought about Bloomberg as it's hard to find many democrats with the same politics as him... Perhaps gabbard? (Though I'm not sure that would energise the democrat base)
What do people think will happen here (given the age of some of the candidates I think it will possibly play a part in the campaign)
Biden... I'd guess a woman to put some gender balance on the ticket possibly Stacey Abraham's?
Sanders... AOC is too young I think possibly Abraham's again? but most probably a woman for gender balance
Warren... Gender balance would point towards a man and her relatively poor ratings among ethnic minorities would I guess make Castro or booker the most likley but
Buttegig... Kamala?... Balances out the ticket somewhat and she lends some experience to the ticket as well.
I'm not sure if Abraham's will be bidens / Sanders pick but she has certainly intimated she is interested in the role... I also think the work she has done with the fair fight foundation is going to help Dems a lot come election time
Whoever Sanders / Biden pick though they will need to have strong credentials as not only will age probably be a factor (and therefore suitability of the VP) but also given how fragmented things are the republicans will probably be looking for an impeachment opportunity even before they take over
Is there any realistic options I've left out? To be honest I've not really thought about Bloomberg as it's hard to find many democrats with the same politics as him... Perhaps gabbard? (Though I'm not sure that would energise the democrat base)
Biden/Harris - He will be under pressure to balance the race and gender issue on his ticket. Despite her debate zinger, she could easily conform to his platform.
Sanders/Warren or Beto - He will also be under pressure to balance a bit by bringing someone from a different gender or to bring someone who can help him do better in a particular state (Beto was pro M4A in his Senate run and would easily switch back if he were selected).
Warren/Beto or Sanders- Similar issue as above.
Pete won't be winning anything so it would be pointless to speculate, but just for fun, I could see him going for someone like Garcetti, O'Malley, or Gillum.
@Brwned
Thanks for your long reply.
I disagree with the normal Left /Right arguments put forward by Centrists.
Every candidate is talking about Medicare For All even if only Bernie is talking about Single Payer.
Why?
Because that's where the country is.
Policies are what matter.
Also Student Debt and the big one. Climate Change.
I do not know who will win the nomination or become President.
But if Bernie becomes the nominee I expect the Democratic party to get behind him..even if it will be doing it reluctantly .
Unless it decides to go full 'Trump'.
I'll leave it at that.
Thanks for your long reply.
I disagree with the normal Left /Right arguments put forward by Centrists.
Every candidate is talking about Medicare For All even if only Bernie is talking about Single Payer.
Why?
Because that's where the country is.
Policies are what matter.
Also Student Debt and the big one. Climate Change.
I do not know who will win the nomination or become President.
But if Bernie becomes the nominee I expect the Democratic party to get behind him..even if it will be doing it reluctantly .
Unless it decides to go full 'Trump'.
I'll leave it at that.
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I don’t agree, and actually think that Sanders is the worst matchup for Trump. Trump shines when it becomes personal and manages to drag the opponents on his level. Biden for being corrupt, Warren for being a woman, Buttigieg for being gay etc. Against Sanders, it will become about policies, and that is not Trump’s strongest point. Sanders also while being angry, actually gives hope, and surprisingly many of Trump voters actually don’t hate him (probably cause he is not elite and gives the impression to everyone that he is a very nice guy). Again, I don’t know how this will work with independents and I think that a Sanders presidency will fail cause he won’t be able to unite his party, let alone win Republican votes in the senate, but he will be cryptonite to most of Trump attacks, and will definitely be a strong challenger (more than Warren and Buttigieg).
Agree with most (AOC is illegible anyway cause of age).
Gabbard with Bloomberg, cannot see it. She is very left wing fiscally, while Bloomberg is center right. She is also not popular with the left, especially after the impeachment vote.
Two things I disagree with here. I don’t see Trump resorting to policy talk just because it’s Bernie. Rather, I expect him to resort to McCarthy-era-type anti-communist propaganda and try to paint Bernie as a freedom hating socialist who loves the USSR. People in the US are ignorant enough to conflate the Democratic Party with socialism so it’s hard to see how that won’t stick especially with Republicans.
The second is the notion that Sanders would be an unsuccessful President. If the vibe from him I’m getting is true, then I see Sanders leading many mass demonstrations of people to pressure local and national governments to sign onto progressive change. The hardcore Sanders base is extremely passionate and organized and will pretty ride or die for him and the cause. He certainly won’t be a traditional President and just let things hang in the House.
I see the qualification criteria for the next debate have increased again
Now 5% in national polls or 7% in early state polls and 225k doners
Currently only 5 people qualified
Biden, Sanders, Warren, buttegig
The other is kloubchar
Bloomberg needs more doners (has achieved 5% polling)
Yang and booker have achieved doners but need better polling
Debate is on 14th Jan so given Xmas and new year I think it's going to be difficult to get much coverage for a big bump in the polls
I suspect Bloomberg might get the doners if he chucks enough money at advertising (and he has enough money)
I think this is the last debate before Iowa votes? (Not certain but thought the next debate was a couple of days after Iowa)?
Now 5% in national polls or 7% in early state polls and 225k doners
Currently only 5 people qualified
Biden, Sanders, Warren, buttegig
The other is kloubchar
Bloomberg needs more doners (has achieved 5% polling)
Yang and booker have achieved doners but need better polling
Debate is on 14th Jan so given Xmas and new year I think it's going to be difficult to get much coverage for a big bump in the polls
I suspect Bloomberg might get the doners if he chucks enough money at advertising (and he has enough money)
I think this is the last debate before Iowa votes? (Not certain but thought the next debate was a couple of days after Iowa)?
Why am I suddenly getting hungry ?
Anyone who donates 225k doners has my vote.https://www.huffpost.com/entry/bernie-sanders-unemployment-jobs-wages_n_5e051b6ee4b0b2520d13706d
Bernie Sanders Explains Why Low Unemployment Doesn’t Mean Americans Are Better Off
Even as more Americans have jobs, many of these pay low wages, making it hard for families to get by.
Bernie Sanders Explains Why Low Unemployment Doesn’t Mean Americans Are Better Off
Even as more Americans have jobs, many of these pay low wages, making it hard for families to get by.
That's going to be nigh on impossible, since he's trying to do a no-donation campaign. He might have to relent, because it doesn't appear like the Dems are going to change the rules (which also blows a hole in the "Bloomberg is the Dem insider candidate" idea).
First point, it might be so.
Second, dunno how he is going to to do as president. He will need to govern. Nevertheless, I expect the bulk of the party to go with him, but there will be many swing unreliable votes (I can see Mancin consistently voting against him cause of political issues, and senators who come from red/purple countries to vote against him in many cases). And no, you cannot primary and oust them, good luck winning West Virginia with a progressive.
That is why I prefer Warren to Sanders despite that my political positions match better those of Sanders.
Ultimately is probably going to be Biden though.
bernie samders won every single county in west virginia in the 2016 primary. stick to the "i fecking love science" page
Bernie won the popular vote there in 2016's primary. He's also won most of the midwest in 2016 including states: Indiana, Michigan, Wisconsin, and Minnesota.
Apart from Biden, Bernie is popular with blue collar Democrats of the more conservative regions. People like Warren don't command enough of the right voters to win imo.
He would have a tough time governing, since as you say, the moderate Dems would almost all vote against some of his central policies. Same goes for Warren by the way. The center of mass in the Democratic party hasn't yet swung progressive enough for any sort of broad systemic change to take place. A more likely scenario is that Republicans would instantly start a massive campaign to win back Congress in the midterms.
I was clearly talking about the senate race. No Democrat president is going to win West Virginia, and there is only one Democrat who can win the senate race there. So what I am saying is that the senators coming from these deep red countries won’t vote with Bernie in many of the central policies cause they both go against their beliefs and will harm them in re-elections. And no, the answer to that is not as easy as to primary them. First, Mancin would easily win against any Democrat in primaries, but if he somehow loses, then that Democrat will lose by 30 or so points in the main election.
So yep, for Bernie it will be very hard to govern cause he won’t have the support of his party. That is unless he has some very large majority, like Obama had on his first 2 years but that is not very likely. Warren to some degree will have the same problems, but she can unite more the party and meet the moderates in the middle. Biden will have the easiest time to govern, but he is just continuing the he status quo.
Essentially, it is a big problem either way, but a problem left for another day. Now they should concentrate on winning.
Agree with everything you said.
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