2020 US Elections | Biden certified as President | Dems control Congress

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So called liberals and left in UK elected Blair after opposing him on the war. So it was already painted as just a policy failure way back when and more importantly not as important as any domestic policy. At least the yanks were open about electing Bush because of support for a president during wartime.

Blair already won two elections by a mammoth landslide before Iraq. In 1997 he picked up 418 seats for Labour. In 2001 he picked up 413 seats. In 2005 he won with 365 which is just three less than the tories huge win now but a big swing in seats ordinarily.

Losing 48 seats from 2001 to 2005 shows there was a backlash to Iraq but Labour under him were still trusted to carry on.
 

Is it? That might turn out to be true, but there's no way we can draw that comparison just like that. They are two different countries. For one thing, the New Labour that many now think would have won this election was still explicitly social democratic, with many views similar to the "radical" ones of the American "hard left".
 
Is it? That might turn out to be true, but there's no way we can draw that comparison just like that. They are two different countries. For one thing, the New Labour that many now think would have won this election was still explicitly social democratic, with many views similar to the "radical" ones of the American "hard left".

The US will eventually move to a more social democratic direction but there’s plenty of room for skepticism that it will happen this cycle, with so much on the line if Trump were to get re-elected. Also, despite the loud noises on Twitter, the base and power structure of the Democratic Party is still primarily comprised of the old Obama coalition, which is not coincidentally why uncle Joe slid into the race as the immediate front runner.

Trump sought Ukrainian help to kneecap Biden as that is who he truly fears. If he were to run against one of the progressives, he would simply demagogue the election as a referendum between capitalism and socialism and do very well at convincing vast swaths of easily led voters that capitalism is easily the better choice.
 
Is it? That might turn out to be true, but there's no way we can draw that comparison just like that. They are two different countries. For one thing, the New Labour that many now think would have won this election was still explicitly social democratic, with many views similar to the "radical" ones of the American "hard left".
There are enough similarities between Trump and Boris's successes to draw that parallel. There's only so much you can beat out of healthcare. Imo immigration will be a crucial factor in this election. The "open entry" to US is a theme that Trump will capitalize well.
 
There are enough similarities between Trump and Boris's successes to draw that parallel. There's only so much you can beat out of healthcare. Imo immigration will be a crucial factor in this election. The "open entry" to US is a theme that Trump will capitalize well.
Where did this open entry narrative come from? Did I miss something?
 
There's a reasonably big account I follow on Twitter who came up with an idea called Cuomo's Law. It was on the back of Andrew Cuomo winning his re-election comfortably despite having barely any Twitter support, minimal retweets/likes while his opponent had all of the bluechecks promoting her.

Corbyn similarly was far more successful on Twitter. All the top trends when the polls were open were Vote Labour, Youthquake, Save the NHS etc but he got trounced.

Twitter is more young, liberal, but also a small section of society. Most people don't spend all their time online and scrolling down on their feed every five minutes.

If you're a political strategist don't get sucked in to whatever the latest trend is on Twitter. There are people who still say Biden is only leading because of name recognition. Sanders ran last time so name recognition is not an excuse. Two months ago Warren overtook him for about 48 hours but now she's collapsed somewhat. It's been eight months since Biden joined the race. He was already polling first before then. At some point you just have to concede what's more likely is people like his platform. And the people who meet him in person and hear him speak for an hour or two hours (not just 20 second clips cut for Twitter mocking) actually come away liking the guy.
 
If the democrats stop their far left slide (which has never remotely existed by the way because the 'left' in America is centre in Europe) then they fall foul to the same thing that Hillary did. They gain the centre votes but have a lousy turnout and lose the election anyway. The one big thing the right has in both UK and USA is that they are untied in hated the left. They don't all agree on policy but they show up to stop the 'commies'. If the left want to start winning elections then they need to come together to beat the enemy but most of all they need to find a way to spread their propaganda and lies the way the right does. No longer take the higher ground but go for the jugular and do it publicly.

The time has come to call the right 'facists' and racists in return to their fake 'commie' labelling. Labour in England should have been bashing home about how the Tories hate the poor and made it impossible to ignore.

Edit: in the USA the democrats need to fund and create their own FOX news.
 
If the democrats stop their far left slide (which has never remotely existed by the way because the 'left' in America is centre in Europe) then they fall foul to the same thing that Hillary did. They gain the centre votes but have a lousy turnout and lose the election anyway. The one big thing the right has in both UK and USA is that they are untied in hated the left. They don't all agree on policy but they show up to stop the 'commies'. If the left want to start winning elections then they need to come together to beat the enemy but most of all they need to find a way to spread their propaganda and lies the way the right does. No longer take the higher ground but go for the jugular and do it publicly.

The time has come to call the right 'facists' and racists in return to their fake 'commie' labelling. Labour in England should have been bashing home about how the Tories hate the poor and made it impossible to ignore.

Edit: in the USA the democrats need to fund and create their own FOX news.

It doesn't really matter what it is in Europe or anywhere else, as long as it's considered the left in the US.
 
There's a reasonably big account I follow on Twitter who came up with an idea called Cuomo's Law. It was on the back of Andrew Cuomo winning his re-election comfortably despite having barely any Twitter support, minimal retweets/likes while his opponent had all of the bluechecks promoting her.

Corbyn similarly was far more successful on Twitter. All the top trends when the polls were open were Vote Labour, Youthquake, Save the NHS etc but he got trounced.

Twitter is more young, liberal, but also a small section of society. Most people don't spend all their time online and scrolling down on their feed every five minutes.

If you're a political strategist don't get sucked in to whatever the latest trend is on Twitter. There are people who still say Biden is only leading because of name recognition. Sanders ran last time so name recognition is not an excuse. Two months ago Warren overtook him for about 48 hours but now she's collapsed somewhat. It's been eight months since Biden joined the race. He was already polling first before then. At some point you just have to concede what's more likely is people like his platform. And the people who meet him in person and hear him speak for an hour or two hours (not just 20 second clips cut for Twitter mocking) actually come away liking the guy.

Bernie isn't all social media likes though. The guy has by far the most individual cash donations and its not even close. His supporters are also polled as saying they're the least likely to flip to another candidate. It's still a mountain to climb, but writing him off as some Twitter fad would be a mistake. He's a hell of a lot more likely to win the nomination than Warren is, and Biden is more than capable of falling over and shitting all over himself before or during the primaries.
 
Bernie isn't all social media likes though. The guy has by far the most individual cash donations and its not even close. His supporters are also polled as saying they're the least likely to flip to another candidate. It's still a mountain to climb, but writing him off as some Twitter fad would be a mistake. He's a hell of a lot more likely to win the nomination than Warren is, and Biden is more than capable of falling over and shitting all over himself before or during the primaries.

He’s clearly not a social media phenomenon, just as the Twitter noise in support and against him is largely just that. I expect him to outperform his polling by a few points (much as Trump will likely do as well).
 
Bernie isn't all social media likes though. The guy has by far the most individual cash donations and its not even close. His supporters are also polled as saying they're the least likely to flip to another candidate. It's still a mountain to climb, but writing him off as some Twitter fad would be a mistake. He's a hell of a lot more likely to win the nomination than Warren is, and Biden is more than capable of falling over and shitting all over himself before or during the primaries.

I'm not writing him off as a Twitter fad. What I'm saying is for eight months Joe Biden has been dunked on by the online twitter mob. But these attacks on Biden have not been working. He's a stronger candidate than people give credit for. Look at Warren who has a plan for everything yet could only hold a lead of the poll aggregate for a week.

My original point is the election last week emphasised the point that the online left has to stop sneering and being high and mighty at different points of views. Just like how telling lifelong labour voters to "f*** off and join the tories/libdems" backfired so is calling someone who has the same motivation but a different means of getting there as on the right wing. The actual right wing didn't even want Obamacare. Every democrat whether they're for M4A or Public Option are building on Obamacare. The actual right wing want to roll back voting rights and minority rights, whereas every democrat is protecting them and enhancing them.

Joe Biden's lead is because he is crushing it with black voters as Hillary Clinton did. In South Carolina which has a bigger black representation among democrats he is twenty points clear.

https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/president-primary-d/south-carolina/

In the overwhelmingly white Iowa he has been fourth for a while but encountered a recent surge after the bus tour.

https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/president-primary-d/iowa/

This is a good article to examine why this is so.

https://forward.com/opinion/435826/why-the-left-has-failed-with-black-voters/
 
My original point is the election last week emphasised the point that the online left has to stop sneering and being high and mighty at different points of views. Just like how telling lifelong labour voters to "f*** off and join the tories/libdems" backfired so is calling someone who has the same motivation but a different means of getting there as on the right wing. The actual right wing didn't even want Obamacare. Every democrat whether they're for M4A or Public Option are building on Obamacare. The actual right wing want to roll back voting rights and minority rights, whereas every democrat is protecting them and enhancing them.
Twitter literally doesn't matter(And its certainly not one of the reasons for the election result last Thursday).

https://www.pewresearch.org/fact-ta...jority-of-political-tweets-sent-by-u-s-adults

These users make up just 6% of all U.S. adults with public accounts on the site, but they account for 73% of tweets from American adults that mention national politics.
 
I'm not writing him off as a Twitter fad. What I'm saying is for eight months Joe Biden has been dunked on by the online twitter mob. But these attacks on Biden have not been working. He's a stronger candidate than people give credit for. Look at Warren who has a plan for everything yet could only hold a lead of the poll aggregate for a week.

My original point is the election last week emphasised the point that the online left has to stop sneering and being high and mighty at different points of views. Just like how telling lifelong labour voters to "f*** off and join the tories/libdems" backfired so is calling someone who has the same motivation but a different means of getting there as on the right wing. The actual right wing didn't even want Obamacare. Every democrat whether they're for M4A or Public Option are building on Obamacare. The actual right wing want to roll back voting rights and minority rights, whereas every democrat is protecting them and enhancing them.

Joe Biden's lead is because he is crushing it with black voters as Hillary Clinton did. In South Carolina which has a bigger black representation among democrats he is twenty points clear.

https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/president-primary-d/south-carolina/

In the overwhelmingly white Iowa he has been fourth for a while but encountered a recent surge after the bus tour.

https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/president-primary-d/iowa/

This is a good article to examine why this is so.

https://forward.com/opinion/435826/why-the-left-has-failed-with-black-voters/
It’s a shame he’s leading there because the south means feck all in the general election.
 
Twitter literally doesn't matter(And its certainly not one of the reasons for the election result last Thursday).

https://www.pewresearch.org/fact-ta...jority-of-political-tweets-sent-by-u-s-adults

That's my point. Biden is leading because he's not running a campaign to please the vocal minority online who deplore his policies but because his policies resonate with the wider public.

It’s a shame he’s leading there because the south means feck all in the general election.

True but the south in terms of the democratic party voters is more reflective in diversity than Iowa and New Hampshire. Furthermore it's not out of the question imo that at least one big state could switch there. I believe Trump did worse than Romney in 2016, and in 2018 Beto and Abrams came extremely close to a big upset. Maybe 2020 is too early but the demographics favour democrats in the near future.
 
There's a reasonably big account I follow on Twitter who came up with an idea called Cuomo's Law. It was on the back of Andrew Cuomo winning his re-election comfortably despite having barely any Twitter support, minimal retweets/likes while his opponent had all of the bluechecks promoting her.

Corbyn similarly was far more successful on Twitter. All the top trends when the polls were open were Vote Labour, Youthquake, Save the NHS etc but he got trounced.

Twitter is more young, liberal, but also a small section of society. Most people don't spend all their time online and scrolling down on their feed every five minutes.

If you're a political strategist don't get sucked in to whatever the latest trend is on Twitter. There are people who still say Biden is only leading because of name recognition. Sanders ran last time so name recognition is not an excuse. Two months ago Warren overtook him for about 48 hours but now she's collapsed somewhat. It's been eight months since Biden joined the race. He was already polling first before then. At some point you just have to concede what's more likely is people like his platform. And the people who meet him in person and hear him speak for an hour or two hours (not just 20 second clips cut for Twitter mocking) actually come away liking the guy.


Nothing to do
I'm not writing him off as a Twitter fad. What I'm saying is for eight months Joe Biden has been dunked on by the online twitter mob. But these attacks on Biden have not been working. He's a stronger candidate than people give credit for. Look at Warren who has a plan for everything yet could only hold a lead of the poll aggregate for a week

Not because of policy though as you claimed.

Rather because corporate media has been shilling hard for Biden, obfuscating the reality and undermining the truth (and Sanders and Warren) the entire time and mainstream media influences over 40 voters far more than "the twitter mob".

So while you are right Biden candidacy remains undead and not dead, its not because people actually like his policy, of which he has nothing substantial but because the corporate lobbying .
 
That's my point. Biden is leading because he's not running a campaign to please the vocal minority online who deplore his policies but because his policies resonate with the wider public.
He hasn't got any polices. Biden is the front runner in some states because he was Obama VP and is quite conservative(Which plays well with older Democrats).

But my point being it doesn't matter what anyone say on twitter, so left wing sheering at others online doesn't matter.
 
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1. What policies of Biden resonate with the wider public? Pushups?

2. What, other than being associated with Obama, makes Biden popular with (older) black people?

Perhaps the better question would be, why does the electorate like Biden when both your questions are closer to truth / actual truth? We are fecked.
 
Interesting theory considering it was originally a Heritage Foundation plan.

Not a single republican voted for it. They spent eight years trying to repeal it. Just like they do not support Biden's, Pete's, Klobuchar's public option.
 
1. What policies of Biden resonate with the wider public? Pushups?

2. What, other than being associated with Obama, makes Biden popular with (older) black people?
There are many people who see Biden as the return to normalcy and see his history of working with “both sides” of the aisle to make progress. And because of that, they think he’ll get “realistic” policies pushed through deadlock.

Older black people who have been keeping up consider much of his time since the 70s of doing his part for the black community. It goes beyond his association with Obama.

By the way I’m not saying I agree with these sentiments, but it’s the gist of what I’m getting. I think he sucks.
 
1. What policies of Biden resonate with the wider public? Pushups?

2. What, other than being associated with Obama, makes Biden popular with (older) black people?


He's a moderate. Despite it being seen as a dirty word in online circles I think most people consider themselves moderates too. He's proposing a public option to build on Obamacare, he was in charge of the 'green jobs' initiative during the Obama Administration stimulus package and as president he proposes to build on that with $1.7 trillion spending over ten years on clean energy jobs, research, a tax on greenhouse gases emission, rejoining the Paris Climate agreement and a target of zero net emissions by 2050. On immigration he has acknowledged the deportations that took place when he was VP but also cites how the administration fought to protect DACA kids, made it easier to get access to citizenship, and provided aid to neighbouring nations to help them govern. His plan is again to build on that by ensuring immigrants at the border get access to legal representation including translators, no family separation, access to healthcare because it's beneficial for everyone for them to be treated for illness, fairer screening procedures but when asked if he will stop all deportations he says no because for criminals such as murderers, after serving their sentence they ought to be sent back. On education he is proposing free community college and a policy to ease student loan debt with different conditions too long to explain briefly. On worker rights he has always had a strong rapport with unions hence why a lot have endorsed him. On gun control he vows to reinstate the Assault Weapons Ban that was part of his well discussed 94 crime bill and universal background checks. On wealth he raises taxes on the rich, takes away tax cuts for them, tightens the tax code so loopholes on capital gain tax for example are cut out but he also makes the case of being pro-business. On foreign policy he is an internationalist. When he talks about working across the aisle, polls show most people want more bipartisanship. I don't think it's possible at all but people want it.

Those are just some points I tried to briefly summise. And the fundamental point is they're just rank and file democratic points except moulded in a manner to adapt to the situation now. And because it's been adapted for the situation now he can say 'it's more liberal than when I was VP" or "it's more liberal than Hillary who was more liberal than when I was VP".

In my opinion if there was someone better at debating than Biden running on his platform they could be running away with it. Or if Pete didn't have such a lack of rapport with black voters.

And that brings me on to Biden's support with older black voters. Being Obama's VP exponentially helps but he also had rapport with them as mentioned above because since the 70s', while he may not have been right on every issue, he was always there. He went to talk to them and listen to them. That's Pete's problem, not necessarily the policies or lack of as Mayor, but the fact his presence with black voters and black officials was barely visible. Biden on the other hand has tons of endorsements and even the ones who didn't but went to Harris for example (who had more black officials endorsing her than him), they didn't throw him under for that segregationist comment six months ago because they knew him for so long.
 
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Not a single republican voted for it. They spent eight years trying to repeal it. Just like they do not support Biden's, Pete's, Klobuchar's public option.

Which shows exactly how determined they were to oppose Obama at all costs. Oh and also how far right the Republican Party has slid over the last few decades.

There’s nothing about Obamacare that is left wing. It was a massive handout to the insurance companies, and frankly it’s fecking embarrassing that the Dems continue to embrace it like it was some biblical gift from god.
 
He's a moderate. Despite it being seen as a dirty word in online circles I think most people consider themselves moderates too. He's proposing a public option to build on Obamacare, he was in charge of the 'green jobs' initiative during the Obama Administration stimulus package and as president he proposes to build on that with $1.7 trillion spending over ten years on clean energy jobs, research, a tax on greenhouse gases emission, rejoining the Paris Climate agreement and a target of zero net emissions by 2050. On immigration he has acknowledged the deportations that took place when he was VP but also cites how the administration fought to protect DACA kids, made it easier to get access to citizenship, and provided aid to neighbouring nations to help them govern. His plan is again to build on that by ensuring immigrants at the border get access to legal representation including translators, no family separation, access to healthcare because it's beneficial for everyone for them to be treated for illness, fairer screening procedures but when asked if he will stop all deportations he says no because for criminals such as murderers, after serving their sentence they ought to be sent back. On education he is proposing free community college and a policy to ease student loan debt with different conditions too long to explain briefly. On worker rights he has always had a strong rapport with unions hence why a lot have endorsed him. On gun control he vows to reinstate the Assault Weapons Ban that was part of his well discussed 94 crime bill and universal background checks. On wealth he raises taxes on the rich, takes away tax cuts for them, tightens the tax code so loopholes on capital gain tax for example are cut out but he also makes the case of being pro-business. On foreign policy he is an internationalist. When he talks about working across the aisle, polls show most people want more bipartisanship. I don't think it's possible at all but people want it.

Those are just some points I tried to briefly summise. And the fundamental point is they're just rank and file democratic points except moulded in a manner to adapt to the situation now. And because it's been adapted for the situation now he can say 'it's more liberal than when I was VP" or "it's more liberal than Hillary who was more liberal than when I was VP".

In my opinion if there was someone better at debating than Biden running on his platform they could be running away with it. Or if Pete didn't have such a lack of rapport with black voters.

And that brings me on to Biden's support with older black voters. Being Obama's VP exponentially helps but he also had rapport with them as mentioned above because since the 70s', while he may not have been right on every issue, he was always there. He went to talk to them and listen to them. That's Pete's problem, not necessarily the policies or lack of as Mayor, but the fact his presence with black voters and black officials was barely visible. Biden on the other hand has tons of endorsements and even the ones who didn't but went to Harris for example (who had more black officials endorsing her than him), they didn't throw him under for that segregationist comment six months ago because they knew him for so long.
Great post and provides much needed balance.
 
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