What? All that dancing with marching bands didnt work?
2020 US Elections | Biden certified as President | Dems control Congress
- Thread starter Raoul
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After 2018, I don’t see the Dem base satisfied with an all male ticket.
I don't know how imperative that is, but if so, I think he teams up with Klobuchar. She's a "centrist" like him and she's from the midwest where the election will be won or lost.
That being said, it's not as sexy as a Sanders-Turner ticket
Watch Buttigieg get a boost from Kamala dropping out. He's the new DNC chosen one.
Is it? I mean, it is if you click the "The 2020 Endorsement Primary" link. And they haven't released their primary model yet, it's a week or two away at this point.
Just read an article on the electoral college, knew it was flawed but didn’t realise quite how much. Any chance it is done away with soon? Think I saw Warren wants to get rid of it.
https://www.vox.com/policy-and-poli...college-explained-presidential-elections-2016
https://www.vox.com/policy-and-poli...college-explained-presidential-elections-2016
I didn't know the bit in bold, which probably explains it.
Whenever I've tried to see anything about the primary through the 538 homepage, it takes me to this endorsements shit. The only way to find their tracker is from google, unless it's very well-hidden on the site.
I think they figure that there are already plenty of sites that aggregate primary poll numbers. There's definitely going to be a model, which should be interesting. The endorsement thing is a bit meh, but they have had some interesting discussions on their Podcast (and on their site) about the "party decides" idea, and whether or not it's actually a thing.
Racist, my ass. feck outta here with that trash excuse. Her campaign died not because she was a black woman. It died because she sucked as a candidate. Her record spoke for itself, she backtracked many times, she relied on zingers in debates, and seemed to focus her appeal to girls and black voters based on her social media. And to be honest, all the times I heard the "she's a cop" narrative were from black people and one Eboue (who could be black for all I know).
What a load of nonsense. The people who were most critical of her career history were people of colour.
For me, it was the racism.
i was talking to some mechanics at the shop today while waiting for my truck to get fixed and they, to a man, said that they previously supported trump but once they saw emmanuel macaroon laughing at him they couldnt wait to vote for a democrat
So who will drop out next?
And who will gain from Harris going out?
And who will gain from Harris going out?
Drop out next - not sure but how much money Patrick, Kloubchar, Booker, Gabbard have on hand - not sure they have that much so they might struggle and I could see any of those dropping out around new year when they will need to start spending more not only on ground operations in iowa but advertising more in subsequent states - especially as bloomberg and steyer can pretty much buy up media at will
As to who will benefit I'm not sure what she was polling in the end but single figures (perhaps 6%) probably some votes split towards pete / biden and some split towards sanders / warren... at most perhaps one candidate gets a 1% bump over the others from her dropping out but its probably insignificant compared to the general churn of people changing their mind and undecided voters making up their mind.
I think Yang will be around till polling in Iowa as will steyer and bloomberg and of course the top 4 - I could see anybody else dropping out between now and iowa (or almost immediately after Iowa)
Last cash on hand figures I saw were from end of september and I think they file 1/4ly meaning end of december they will have to release financial figures (I heard somebody on pod save america saying on previous campaigns they had not paid people in december and held back till january to make figures look better)
but assuming steyer and bloomberg have pretty much unlimited funding in september this was the case (rounded to the closest million)
sanders $34m
Warren $26m
Pete $23m
Kamala $11m
Biden $9m
Yang $6m
Booker $4m
Kloubchar $4m
Gabbard $2m
I think Biden and Yang are well enough known to need less advertising but from there down unless something dramatic happens I think the rest will struggle
I wouldn't be surprised to see perhaps only 5 people left in after Iowa / New hampshire... Bloomberg plus the top 4
Yang can't be put in the same category as Biden. Everyone knows who Biden is, while Yang is still largely an unknown to many. I don't think I'd put him above Booker or Klobuchar in that respect.
Biden attacking others competence after his recent performances is something.
Trump will destroy this senile clown.
As a republican only Sanders can beat Trump due to his strength in the Rust Belt, but the DNC wont allow that and have Bloomberg ready as an independent should he win.
Nonsense.Biden attacking others competence after his recent performances is something.
Trump will destroy this senile clown.
As a republican only Sanders can beat Trump due to his strength in the Rust Belt, but the DNC wont allow that and have Bloomberg ready as an independent should he win.
I dont personally like Sanders but he wants to end the corrupt gravy train the likes of Pelosi, Schumer and the Clintons live for.
They would 100% prefer Trump was president than him and Bloomberg is the contingency plan as an independent with media backing should Joe, Pete and Warren fail.
There is zero percent chance the Democratic Party in any sense of the word has an independent Bloomberg campaign as any sort of contingency plan.
I thought Trump was gonna do that? He was gonna lock her up and drain the swamp?
No politician can actually do that as it is bipartisan corruption.
The establishment just dont like people talking about it.
posibly - he seems to have had a bit more of a cut through to me and i dont expect him to drop out before Iowa ... Equally I don't think he's going to be around on super Tuesday either
Of course things can change but his universal income has differentiated him and it will be interesting to see where his support goes to when (if) he does drop out... I'd guess Sanders would pick up a chunk but thats a hunch rather than data driven
I definitely agree that he'll probably last longer than Booker or Klobuchar, I just don't think his profile is much bigger than those two overall. He's got a very strong online presence (almost only an online presence, sometimes), which makes him more obvious to people like us.
So I'm not sure if this is better posted in the impeachment thread or here
But if there is a trial in the Senate then if my understanding is correct Bernie and Warren effectively become part of the jury on if they convict trump
Is this allowed (or is it a conflict of interest)
Can they comment on proceedings if they are in effect jurors ?
Can they recuse themselves?
Would this give an advantage to Biden and Pete?
Could Biden be called as a witness and would that again place certain restrictions on him
Basically could 3 of the frontrunners be banned from talking about probably the biggest political issue in the run up to Iowa (as well as keeping them stuck mostly In Washington)
But if there is a trial in the Senate then if my understanding is correct Bernie and Warren effectively become part of the jury on if they convict trump
Is this allowed (or is it a conflict of interest)
Can they comment on proceedings if they are in effect jurors ?
Can they recuse themselves?
Would this give an advantage to Biden and Pete?
Could Biden be called as a witness and would that again place certain restrictions on him
Basically could 3 of the frontrunners be banned from talking about probably the biggest political issue in the run up to Iowa (as well as keeping them stuck mostly In Washington)
Nice to see Joe doing some fighting.
But, it's not an actual rule, just a standard. So they could talk about it if they want.
Yes and McConnell might well stretch the senate trial out to enforce this.
But, it's not an actual rule, just a standard. So they could talk about it if they want.
Presumably though as Schiff could set the rules before McConnell could set a rule that jurors must not discuss the case whilst it is ongoing?
Rules in the senate are done by chief justice Robert's and needs 51 to pass. Schiff wont have anything to do with it I dont believe
Of course it is a farce.
I don't know much about Bloomberg's positions on most issues. What's not to like about him? I think at this point anyone who is mostly identified as from either party will face a stonewall congress. More independent president's have a better chance of getting shit done.
Was that you, RD?
Of course it is a farce.
Someone has woken up Sleepy Joe
Well, yeah US is a federal government, where each state sends electors in a winner takes all manner. Subsequently, most states don't matter i.e. Republicans won't campaign in NY, CA, OR, VT, MA etc and Democrats won't really spend a lot of effort in Texas, Louisiana, Alabama etc. It is what it is. It also means that Republican voters in predominantly Democratic states won't bother to vote (as it won't matter any way) and the same for Democratic voters in Republican dominated areas.
It's further exacerbated by the 2-party rule, I feel like if we had 3 or 4 viable parties or candidates things would work out better. Right now it's a fecking duopoly lock where many people feel that are not sufficiently represented.
Its a fact they are not represented.
Why voter turnout is low...which suits both parties.
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