2020 US Elections | Biden certified as President | Dems control Congress

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Raoul said:
It's a good point. Ultimately, people need something to look forward to and the fact that he doesn't have policy positions could be a massive problem that will dwarf whether or not he thinks NH is Vermont. Warren is looking like the one who would do it.
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should also be noted that the latest Economist/YouGov poll is highlighting a similar trend. Biden has gone from +7 at the beginning of August to +3.

https://www.realclearpolitics.com/e...ratic_presidential_nomination-6730.html#polls

I don't think the Jill Biden video and the brain melting has played well. Might bounce back when people move on to the next thing, but i can't wait for the next debate, hopefully biden starts asking people to clap his answers :lol:


Debate 1 32% nationally on the night of the debate, plummeted to an all time low of 26% after Kamala slapped him around.

Debate 2 32% nationally on the night of the debate, so recovered the less people saw him, after the debate is now down to 27.2%

When people get to see him perform on a national scale, he flops HARD. You can see why there were leaks from his campaign team trying to minimise him on the campaign. He cannot hold up to any...literally any.... examination of himself.

“The main takeaway from this poll is that the Democratic race has become volatile,” said Patrick Murray, director of the Monmouth University Polling Institute. “Liberal voters are starting to cast about for a candidate they can identify with. Moderate voters, who have been paying less attention, seem to be expressing doubts about Biden. But they are swinging more toward one of the left-leaning contenders with high name recognition rather than toward a lesser known candidate who might be more in line with them politically.”
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https://www.politico.com/story/2019/08/26/bernie-sanders-elizabeth-warren-joe-biden-poll-1475440
 
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Biden +2 in Morning Consult, no other changes.
33-20-15 top 3 (B-S-W respectively).
 
berbatrick said:
Biden +2 in Morning Consult, no other changes.
33-20-15 top 3 (B-S-W respectively).
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Harris continues her downward slide. - 6% since June and -4% since the beginning of August. I think she should consider dropping out.

Also, Sanders now leads in favourability in that morning consult poll?
 
It may finally be dawning on Democrats that Biden isn’t up for this

Former Vice President Joe Biden, in 2019, is a candidate who cannot carry his water. He is leading most Democratic primary polls so far, but much of his support is a product of our willingness to ignore what is before our face.

And I’m not talking here about policy knowledge or political experience. (In the first department, he’s fine. In the second, he’s among the best in the field.)

I’m talking about soft skills and combative tact, force of personality. Biden may see himself as a lion of a man — but he’s no Bill Clinton, or Ronald Reagan, or Lyndon Johnson. He doesn’t remember your mother’s name, or (comparably) feel your pain. He’s run twice before but never won the presidency with shine enough to inspire the neologism, “Biden Republicans." There’s no evidence he can decisively connect with Southern Democrats.
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https://www.nydailynews.com/opinion...0190826-5wtsof2jv5airir2fb44rj3swa-story.html

I subscribe to this timeline. Lets hope bad polls start turning some media outlets against him.

Former Vice President Joe Biden told New Hampshire supporters that he was "not going nuts" after he momentarily forgot what building he was speaking at on Dartmouth College's campus last week.

“I want to be clear, I’m not going nuts,” Biden said on Friday. “I’m not sure whether it was the medical school or where the hell I spoke. But it was on the campus.”
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https://thehill.com/homenews/campaign/458817-biden-tells-supporters-after-flub-im-not-going-nuts

Oh joe, it's time to go buddy. We have to take the keys from you for your own safety. :lol:
 
Biden polling as high as the next three put together shows that the democratic base is still not ready for things like universal health care, free tuition etc and despite all the social media coverage, none of them have the brand value or name recognition to challenge him either. Unless either Sanders or Warren ends their campaign early and joins the other's ticket, its going to be a cake walk for Uncle Joe.
 
Wednesday at Stoke said:
Biden polling as high as the next three put together shows that the democratic base is still not ready for things like universal health care, free tuition etc and despite all the social media coverage, none of them have the brand value or name recognition to challenge him either. Unless either Sanders or Warren ends their campaign early and joins the other's ticket, its going to be a cake walk for Uncle Joe.
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It’s because the issues are being framed as left v right in the media and most Americans still tend to think of them as such. If they evaluated them in terms of value and benefit, the candidates who support these policies would be ahead significantly. But as you say, we aren’t there yet and there’s no clear indication we will be during the next cycle.
 
Raoul said:
It’s because the issues are being framed as left v right in the media and most Americans still tend to think of them as such. If they evaluated them in terms of value and benefit, the candidates who support these policies would be ahead significantly. But as you say, we aren’t there yet and there’s no clear indication we will be during the next cycle.
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agreed, offering to change things for the better is an up hill battle. Sanders, Warren have to prove every single thing they want to do continuously in the face of "how you going to pay for that, OHMERGERD SOCIALISM". Biden's entire campaign is "nothing will change for people, remember how much better the country was before trump". And for a large number of older democrats, that's good enough. It's obvious by the age democraphics in the polls. 50+ year olds completely side with biden. Anyone under 50 wants nothing to do with him.

I only hope he falls flat on his face before the general election, but i fear he will get over the line. At that point, i expect his constant brain melting in the general election will make it closer than it should be.
 
Red Defence said:
Yes it will but Dems can’t see that. Biden is “back to Obama” for them.

Biden might be ok as VP, but he is not Presidential material.
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The leadership sees that. His endorsement count so far is very mediocre given the profile, what is happening at the moment is that they aren’t comfortable with Sanders/Warren either so hoping for a Harris/Buttchug surge, but you’d have to think with Ginsburg’s failing health they will have to suck it up eventually and back a winnable candidate.
 
InfiniteBoredom said:
The leadership sees that. His endorsement count so far is very mediocre given the profile, what is happening at the moment is that they aren’t comfortable with Sanders/Warren either so hoping for a Harris/Buttchug surge, but you’d have to think with Ginsburg’s failing health they will have to suck it up eventually and back a winnable candidate.
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Do you really think the DNC will go with Bernie or Warren?
 
Red Dreams said:
Do you really think the DNC will go with Bernie or Warren?
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Warren’s team are already reaching out to court the higher ups in the party apparatus. If she happens to be in a tight battle with another progressive down the stretch, the party is likely to side with her.
 
I was skeptical about that Monmouth poll, and its numbers still look like an outlier, but the trend doesn't:

#National @EchelonInsights Poll (8/19-21): Biden 30% Sanders 19% Warren 11% Harris 11%
Biden -3, Bernie +5, Warren +1

@EmersonPolling 8/24-26: Biden 31% Sanders 24% Warren 15% Harris 10%
Biden -2, Bernie +4, Warren +1

So far Morning Consult alone defies the Biden/Bernie trend. Waiting on Yougov, which looked like a high outlier for Bernie last week given that they usually have him at 12%. If he can roughly recreate his last yougov numbers, it'll be a strong series of polling.
 
Red Dreams said:
Sorry for the confusion.
I don't trust the DNC. The DNC does not trust Bernie because he is an independent and cannot control him.
They will feel they can control Warren because she is a Democrat, unless she turns out to be a Tulsi (which I hope she does).
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The DNC being leery of a non-Dem winning its nomination wouldn’t be particularly surprising. If he does win it, he will then become the standard bearer who can then set the party’s agenda, much like Trump has for the other side.
 
The whole point of a political party is to win election, the established Democratic institutions will fight tooth and nail to prevent progressives from trumping their candidates, but they won’t commit seppuku (at least, knowingly) just to spite Bernie Bros or Warren Gals.

People drew the wrong lesson from 2016. Democrats backed Hillary Clinton because they thought she would win. This time it’s different, Barrack Obama thwarted his own VP back then in favour of her, and didn’t want him to run now. They have no confidence in Biden whatsoever, despite the H2H numbers.
 
InfiniteBoredom said:
The whole point of a political party is to win election, the established Democratic institutions will fight tooth and nail to prevent progressives from trumping their candidates, but they won’t commit seppuku (at least, knowingly) just to spite Bernie Bros or Warren Gals.

People drew the wrong lesson from 2016. Democrats backed Hillary Clinton because they thought she would win. This time it’s different, Barrack Obama thwarted his own VP back then in favour of her, and didn’t want him to run now. They have no confidence in Biden whatsoever, despite the H2H numbers.
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I agree Obama backed Hillary as part of the deal to unite the party in 2008. But how do you know he did not want Biden to run this time?

I think the party insiders are getting nervous about Biden now. He is well past his shelf life.
 
Red Dreams said:
I agree Obama backed Hillary as part of the deal to unite the party in 2008. But how do you know he did not want Biden to run this time?

I think the party insiders are getting nervous about Biden now. He is well past his shelf life.
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The NYT ran a report saying Obama warned Biden repeatedly against running, and told his aides to ‘make sure his (a bit vague here, either his or Biden) legacy is not tarnished’.

These things don’t appear out of thin air, and there’s no pushback from the usual Obama loyalist like Plouffe, Axelrod on that report, plus the non-endorsement (which Biden tried to frame as him wanting a fair race so asked Obama not to :rolleyes:).
 
InfiniteBoredom said:
The NYT ran a report saying Obama warned Biden repeatedly against running, and told his aides to ‘make sure his (a bit vague here, either his or Biden) legacy is not tarnished’.

These things don’t appear out of thin air, and there’s no pushback from the usual Obama loyalist like Plouffe, Axelrod on that report, plus the non-endorsement (which Biden tried to frame as him wanting a fair race so asked Obama not to :rolleyes:).
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Obama was aware of his health issues you think?
 
Red Dreams said:
Obama was aware of his health issues you think?
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I don’t like to speculate on health.

What we do know for a certainty is that they worked together for 8 years, and by all accounts had a close personal relationship, yet when push comes to shove Obama just isn’t confident enough to bank his political legacy on this guy.
 
InfiniteBoredom said:
I don’t like to speculate on health.

What we do know for a certainty is that they worked together for 8 years, and by all accounts had a close personal relationship, yet when push comes to shove Obama just isn’t confident enough to bank his political legacy on this guy.
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Biden does have a lot of baggage, which was not dug into when he was VP.
But everyone can see he in no way looks competent to be president.
 
Redplane said:
I wouldn't expect any high profile endorsements like his until the field has significantly narrowed.
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I don't there is any chance that Biden ran without sounding out Obama. Even last time there were reports that Obama told Biden not to run.
 
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