Bern!
2020 US Elections | Biden certified as President | Dems control Congress
- Thread starter Raoul
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Bern!
Kamala being ahead of Bernie is even more surprising.
its not surprising when you realize hes become a hack.
this guy ffs
Hey look our boy’s finally come around!
His content has deteriorated rapidly in recent years. Trying to insert himself into the narrative rather than just displaying data
As long as he sticks to stats and polling and avoids punditry he’s fine. Unfortunately that’s not very likely since his site needs to attract clicks and one way to do it is with feature articles that analyze the race.
From odds checker today
https://www.oddschecker.com/politics/us-politics/us-presidential-election-2020/democrat-candidate
Biden 11/4
Warren 7/2.... (14/4)
Harris 7/2..... (14/4)
Sanders 8/1...(32/4)
Butt guy 11/1...(44/4)
Yang 25/1........(100/4)
Gabbard 25/1...(100/4)
Booker. 40/1......(160/4)
Bidens odds drifting fast so he looks in trouble... I'd guess Harris is a more likley switch for Biden supporters if his downward spiral can't be stopped.
So I think I see Harris as being ahead of Sanders at the moment... Warren is probably the one I'd put money on at the moment but I think trump will play the Pocahontas card and win
Yeah, I agree. I think that Warren will win the nomination but lose the main election.
I see Sanders doing better than Harris.
Bookies odds aren’t a particular helpful way to look at any of this.
Also, no way Harris is ahead of Sanders. She is 4th in most polls and Sanders and Warren are interchangeably vacillating between 2nd and 3rd.
Yes. Harris deserves to be a candidate.
It's pretty clear what's going on here.
Harris badly needs to erode Biden's numbers to gain any momentum, and the best way to do it would be to dilute his black support (where he is beating her at the moment). Gabbard badly needs to get out of 1% status and the easiest way to do it is to get more progressives fired up by assuaging their concerns about Harris' criminal justice record. If the last debate was anything to go by, Harris' attempts against Biden failed and Tulsi's attempts against Harris had limited success - in that the post-debate narrative was all about how she owned Harris, much as last month's narrative was how Harris zinged Biden about bussing. At the end of the day Biden's numbers seem relatively stable while Harris is basically back to where she was before the very first debate, and Tulsi has managed to eek out a 3rd debate performance next month where she will no doubt continue to big up her VP credentials for either Biden or Bernie.
Its not about numbers Raoul.
Its about character. What she did is diabolical.
Biden may be a corporate stooge, but is nowhere near as terrible as what this woman did.
Just think about fighting evidence that would set an innocent man free from death row.
Its an act of evil.
In terms of strategy it is indeed purely a numbers game. She can't win the nomination unless his polling numbers implode and her strategy is quite obviously to try to make that happen.
You are most likely right on that, but he is far too similar in image to Trump and there, Trump would win IMO.
I just hope the guy is gone by 2020, is so damaging for the US, internationally and for the global future. And he is a prick
I believe almost all of us here want leaders that will improve the lives of millions.
We may come from different political views. But I believe that is the common goal.
And certain qualities disqualify a candidate.
You are talking about a horse race.
Obviously I am not.
Well yes, there's obviously a difference between pie in the sky idealism that won't be realized this cycle irrespective of who wins and rote polling numbers.
The idea that Biden would improve the situation in America in a meaningful way is "pie in the sky idealism".
I agree, but I would also extend that to all candidates since the political conditions for meaningful change don't exist at the moment.
Here's the way I see it. Bernie and Warren build a progressive foundation. The modern right started building its foundation after Goldwater in the 70s after some soul searching and Nixon's faceplant. The Reagan era right started the major shift and its taken decades to really pay off for them.
I don't see Bernie and Warren as so important because of what they will finish accomplishing in 4 years but rather for the foundation they can build to begin pulling the Overton window back from the steady shift to the right that's been happening for 40 years unabated by the neoliberal Dems. Or to put it another way, if we want single payer as a realistic achievement in 10-12 years we need to start that shift today. Electing a Biden will simply delay any meaningful shift because he will simply calcify a lot of the screwed up structural incentives of the status quo (like in healthcare, debt/finance/Wall Street combos, etc) without actually fixing any of the underlying problems. He probably wouldn't even correct the shift just from the last 6 years (it began IMO before Trump was elected).
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Every politician who is not for single payer is for commiting murder for money.
Its as simple as that.
While transition from employees in the insurance industry is made to government jobs, you can have single payer immediately.
Initial funding can be in the form of a loan from the government until the fund is paid via payroll deductions.
As for Social Security, lifting the caps would immediately make it viable. As Bernie has said, Social Security needs to be expanded.
People on low earning jobs cannot live on $12,000 per year (there is that number again).
Its as simple as that.
While transition from employees in the insurance industry is made to government jobs, you can have single payer immediately.
Initial funding can be in the form of a loan from the government until the fund is paid via payroll deductions.
As for Social Security, lifting the caps would immediately make it viable. As Bernie has said, Social Security needs to be expanded.
People on low earning jobs cannot live on $12,000 per year (there is that number again).
The Dems can't even decide what the appropriate policy is amongst themselves, much less come to an agreement with Republicans (which won't ever happen anyway). So best case scenario would be a re-strengthening of the ACA.
I can definitely see the overton window getting stretched towards the progressive position, infact Sanders will likely be remembered as the guy who successfully did that.
I'm saying the Dems who are not for single payer are only interested in money.
Perhaps. Or perhaps they are realists and know single payer won't happen next cycle and are more interested in things that are more realistic - like suring up the ACA or going to some sort of hybrid system where people can be on medicare and those who want to stay on their employer plans can also do so. Not ideal for the purists but definitely more realistic than the medicare for all or bust position, which is basically a tacit endorsement for the status quo, since M4A wont be happening next cycle.
I know this much.
You give up before you start, you lose.
Its not idealism to fight corruption and fight for what is right.
The fact is the Democratic party is not where the voters are.
Recipe for disaster.
This guy is interesting to follow. He is not a big fan of any candidate but is very adamant that anyone who wants to overtake Biden needs to win over Black voters in the South. That those voters typically vote as a bloc. Warren for example - when he analyses the data she has no path at this moment since her polling with that demographic is very low. That despite the twitter echo chamber rank and file democrats in the South who overwhelmingly supported Hillary also support Biden. They are the base of the party.
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That's pretty much how I feel but I'm not going to rule out a major movement that could lead to quick big changes under a Sanders presidency. In the end, having that influential voice of the President would be huge.
Isn't it depressing that the south is such a deciding factor in the Dem primaries but is absolutely useless in the general?
Yep. Even if Obama wanted to impart change, once the first 2 years were up, he was fecked by a stonewalling GOP congress. The only way to push through any sort of meaningful change, will absolutely require the stars to align.
It would require a mass movement. The only candidate even calling for a mass movement is Bernard.
What he really means is that Southern churches (including black churches) are very socially conservative and despite the fact they are a minority of the party and they are irrelevant in the general, just like in the GOP the Old South seems to be able to extract its pound of flesh every election for the socially conservative churches that turn out the vote in higher percentages than the working class otherwise turns out.
It’s because southern pastors preach politics from the pulpit.
What is sad is many of these pastors don't realise the Democrats are not helping their people either.
Vicious cycle.
I watched that , and i have to say i don't get the hatred for this man .Everytime I've seen him he as been strong on progressive issues ,unlike Kamala.
Alarm over voter purges as 17m Americans removed from rolls in two years
https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2019/aug/01/voter-purges-us-elections-brennan-center-report
https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2019/aug/01/voter-purges-us-elections-brennan-center-report
Black Americans are certainly important to winning the nomination, but they only account for 12.6% of the total population, and many of them live in the predominantly GOP south. If the Democrats keep losing touch with the white blue-collar voters then they're in serious shit. Biden might actually help bring some of them back with his relatability factor, but his policies aren't going to do shit for them. The Dems desperately need Bernie.
One team is playing to win. Downright evil, but still winning.
Want to take those decisions to the courts? Have a look who appointed the judges.
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