The NYT needle is really good. It ain't no magic crystal ball with superior knowledge, but it doesn't suffer from the human bias of looking for patterns or narrative. If Dekalb starts coming in and looking ugly for the Dems, it will shift from its current rosy outlook for them: https://www.nytimes.com/interactive...ast-georgia-senate-runoff.html#needle-regular
2020 US Elections | Biden certified as President | Dems control Congress
- Thread starter Raoul
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In the latest episode of the United Hour Podcast, Nik (@Rood) and Imran (@Annihilate Now!) are here to discuss Amad saving our blushes in a win against Southampton as well as our now annual loss at home to Brighton. They discuss Amorim's post-match comments, revisit how mid-table we may or may not be, and discuss some transfer news.
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The ‘votes remain’ map on the NYT needle page is very useful.
71 / 64 on the needles..
What are the bookies saying ?
What are the bookies saying ?
This is also after the largest Repub county by % dropped their results. Still have some large portions of Dem counties still outstanding (Cobb, Dekalb, Chatham).David Perdue
Republican Party
50.3%
1,437,085
Jon Ossoff
Democratic Party
49.7%
1,422,15
Not happening
1.6 / 0.9 for the Dems currently.
The needles are two percentage points of reporting precincts ahead of CNN and continue to suggest the Dems still have a slight advantage. Not sure whats going on.
The needles gives me too much hope. I prefer staying in my cautious camp for now. I'll only start monitoring those bastards later.
Patience, the algorithm is warming up.
Earlier in the night it was remarked by Nate Cohn that even within the NYT, the needle doesn't use the same estimate of # of votes expected/outstanding than the NYT results map does. That is because there is one data provider for County total votes est used to generate the map, but that there is different precinct level data that the needle uses but none of the maps do because it wouldn't make share to show on map level (precincts are too small).
Some more good signs.
Some Gwinnet County in. Warnock and Ossoff catching again
76% of the overall vote in!
E:And now it flips again.
76% of the overall vote in!
E:And now it flips again.
That is quite spectacular from the black community in GA, especially when considering that runoff elections were specifically designed to suppress their vote.
Lived for years less than half a mile from Magic City. Quite the place.
Dammit, @Raoul. Twitter loading being buggy for me means I've reposted Dave's tweets after you posted them twice. 
Completely off topic, but after hearing about Magic City, Dr. Dre is currently in the hospital after suffering a brain aneurysm.
Trump is going to go into uncharted bananas territory if both seats go to the Dems. If it happens he is going to explode with rage, blame everyone in sight including the White House catering staff and secret service agents, and go into an absolute melt-down ranting speech at the "Stop the Steal Rally" tomorrow in DC.
It would also considerably reduce his influence from here on - no longer the President and proven to have damaged the GOP voter turnout in Georgia today.
It would also considerably reduce his influence from here on - no longer the President and proven to have damaged the GOP voter turnout in Georgia today.
Dammit, @Raoul. Twitter loading being buggy for me means I've reposted Dave's tweets after you posted them twice.
We need a script to auto post all his tweets here in real time.
No real outstanding votes to speak of for Republicans.
I have been avoiding this thread and then news for most the night for mental health. Commercial break for the laker game and I pop in to see what’s up and I see this. Much sad.
Especially how most of the remaining uncounted votes appear to be in heavily Dem counties. Fulton County might not even count 15K mail in votes until late tonight or tomorrow morning.
That’s the late, soft PK we need.
Republicans leading in both seats with 78% in
2021 might be starting off with a bang like its predecessor.
Still both Dems are projected to win. It’s playing out like the GE night.Republicans leading in both seats with 78% in
From NYT needle page:
Republicans have taken a narrow lead in the tabulated vote, but the Democrats are clear favorites in both races. The overwhelming majority of remaining votes are in the Atlanta metro area, and while the race remains competitive, there's no indication that the Republicans are poised to outperform expectations. The big Democratic vote left: the DeKalb County early vote. We expect these 170,000 votes to break for Ossoff by an 85-15 margin.
Republicans leading in both seats with 78% in
There was no way tonight would have had a different result from November 4th.
Yup looking that way. But the call is taking a minute for me to process!
Feck me, are they actually going to do it?!
Just woke up. You guys are making me happy.
Great to hear.
We need a script to auto post all his tweets here in real time.
Speaking of tweets, I really wish Twitter had the ability to let you look at your timeline at a certain time/date. I want to go back and reread the tweets around when the Needle flipped back to Biden in Georgia about 1:30am on November 4th.
Republicans leading in both seats with 78% in
The remaining areas to come in are majority Dem leaning though
It will be hilarious if / when it is determined that the black runoff vote was the reason for this.
Runoff elections were created as an anti-black safeguard for Georgia state elections, done for the express purpose of allowing whites to coalesce behind a candidate to counter a black-supported candidate.
Largest current needle values for the blues currently.
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